Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition

The first post-budget poll shows a negative reaction to the budget, but is otherwise one of Labor’s less bad results of recent times.

The first poll in the post-budget avalanche is a Galaxy survey of 1006 respondents showing the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. While it shows a highly negative reaction to the budget in terms of effect on personal finances (14% expect to be better off against 48% worse off), support for abolition of the baby bonus is remarkably high (64% in favour, 22% opposed). Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen, Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan should all be joining the party over the coming days.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

818 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 13 of 17
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  2. [poroti
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 6:00 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    The Snowboarding Bagpiper

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tnir1eKDY1g&list=PLF8312EEC9617F5D1

    That it Poroti bringing the grandsons back to Australia and hope that madness will be bred out of them 😀 Seriously though the balance was amazing although something did not seem quite right with the fingers and tune? Maybe I was wrong I kept thinking what will happen t her teeth and or the bagpipes themselves if she crashes?

  3. [The Snowboarding Bagpiper]
    Thanks 🙂
    I wonder if the bagpipes are capable of causing an avalanche? They are damned loud.

  4. ruawake @597

    Worried ? I am laughing my head off the the desperation of the ALP drones and what they hope to cling on for hope when in really it will just, as usual, blow up in their faces…

  5. guytaur
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 6:08 pm | Permalink
    Off topic

    @pip1984: If you own a cat… your new aim in life

    new aim in life – to get rid of it???

  8. Jakol…I get your point, but it is all now a bit too postmodern for me. Though i do see union participation in the workforce negotiations more important than ever if the LNP. get a turn at bat!

  9. I won’t be lectured on party democracy by people who successfully demanded that a democratic party ballot for the SA Senate ticket be overturned so that Wong could get the number one spot.

  10. Speaking of which, did Rowland ever get home to her child ? Because all those interviews bagging the coalition that she was doing after being granted leave must have really cut into the mummy – child time…

  11. my say crap @50

    “all u say is why I don’t believe polls”

    Unless they are in favour of the ALP in which case they are all true and should be completely and unquestionably believed .. Right ?

  14. [Speaking of which, did Rowland ever get home to her child ?]

    Is this in the Lib talking point memo for today?

    It was an act lower than a brown snakes arsehole and no amount of slithering by the Liberal Party will excuse it.

  15. briefly @ 556

    What is becoming more and more obvious is that the last LNP government subverted the tax system to such an extent that it now no longer supports the suite of Commonwealth spending programs.

    I assume you mean the “suite of Commonwealth spending programs” that were only pipe dreams by the ALP in 2007-08

    Looking at the 2013- 04 budget papers and taking the current forecasts for 2012- 13 & 2013- 14, Table 1 linked: –

    http://www.budget.gov.au/2013-14/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs10.pdf

    Receipts: 2007- 08, $294,917 million (25.1% GDP)
    2013- 14, $375,993 million (23.5% GDP)
    6 year increase $81,076 million or 27.5%

    Payments: 2007- 08, $271,843 million (23.4% GDP)
    2013- 14, $391,198 million (24.5% GDP)
    6 year increase $119,355 or 27.5%

    You cannot balance the budget by focussing just on one side of the ledger. If payments, as a % of GDP, were kept in 2013- 14 at the % level they were in 2007- 08 (23.4%) then there would be a surplus 2013- 14 (assuming the receipt assumptions (23.5% hold).

    But we know the ALP would spend more than budgeted should they hold office; its in their DNA. The only way to get the budget substantially into surplus & to start making significant reductions in the debt is to not only to make significant cuts to expenditure (spending % GDP down) but to also reform the tax base & effectively increase the receipts (% GDP up). And the best way to do the latter is to increase and broaden the GST.

  16. ruawake @614

    “It was an act lower than a brown snakes arsehole”

    I completely agree. Gillard and the associated drones should never have tried to manipulate in such a way. But then we know the lengths the red headed clown will go to, to get her snout on tv. Those snake arseholes must really be causing an itch to Gillard’s nose.

  17. Morpheus

    I am al for robust debate, and like humour, but constantly refrring to a senior politician as “the red haired clown” is just denigration. I won’t even try to speculate on whom you refer to, but it could easily be any of the following:
    http://archiearchive.wordpress.com/2012/02/12/julie-bishop-channelling-the-prime-minister/
    http://www.nsw.liberal.org.au/mark-neeham

    All this doesis lead to a race to the bottom. Will the LOTO become:
    “The liar in lycra”
    “The ego in speedos”
    “George Pell’s puppet”?

  19. @Gauss/615

    So when do you stop increasing GST so that both sides are happy ? Because this is something they will never agree on.

    The Spending is just going to give Coalition party more ammo to increase GST and introduce new taxes and so forth – it’s in their DNA as you said.

  20. Socrates, that’s a bit precious. Abbott is regularly depicted as a chimp here, Hockey is derided for being fat and Pyne is constantly queer-baited. Personal abuse is an integral part of politics here and always has been.

  22. morpheus

    All pars problems are down to one Tony Abbott changing arrangements for political advantage during a Minority Government Parliament.

    His decision. No one else’s.

    It is right he pays the price of that decision.

  23. Lest some think Australian financial management is bad, take a holiday in Cyprus. I have yet to hear a satisfactory explanation of how so much money was lost, yet only came to light five years after the GFC. IMO there must be some massive frauds at the bottom of this. Rad about a few examples in this interesting but depressing story. Some of the reported bank managers behavior sounds like outright fraud.
    http://www.lrb.co.uk/v35/n09/james-meek/the-depositor-haircut

    Off to get ready for Eurovision. May the worst costume win!

  24. Gauss fails arithmetic as usual.

    25.1 – 23.5 = 1.6 so a 1.6% of GDP reduction in receipts.

    23.4 – 24.5 = -1.1 so a 1.1% of GDP increase in spending.

    The 0.5% of GDP reduction in receipts is about the Defence Budget.

    So thanks for proving your point is crap Gauss.

  27. Socrates @617

    So you have the same level of criticism of everyone or just those who aren’t blind followers of the ALP ?

  28. 615 correction

    Payments: 2007- 08, $271,843 million (23.4% GDP)
    2013- 14, $391,198 million (24.5% GDP)
    6 year increase $119,355 or 43.9% not 27.5%

  34. Just took a moment out and read Crabb’s piece on the ABC. Drum….you know..I am certain this sounds really , really weird..but I do believe she thinks she is funny….she really does!

  35. Boerwar @630

    The only happy shots I need are the paranoid post of Meguire Bod explaining how evil the world of polls is when the ALP is doomed.

  36. Mike Carlton ‏@MikeCarlton01 1h
    Why do so many loony Tory tweeters display pics of themselves with Stetsons, 45 revolvers etc, in Clint Eastwood poses.? WTF ?
    Love this tweet and it is so true

  37. I am looking forward to Abbott bringing down electricity prices and gas prices in 15 weeks time.

    He has certainly gone to town about them over the past four years.

    Plus 2,000,000 jobs.

  38. Psephos

    [If you say “Labor voters” I’ll agree with you. The so-called “rank and file members” are 60% ethnic stacks (thanks, Kim Carr) and 40% retired school teachers. The average age of genuine members (ie, not stacks) is about 60. I’d abolish branch membership altogether, and have MPs chosen at primary elections.]

    Who could vote in the primaries?

  43. morpheus
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 6:18 pm | Permalink
    ruawake @614

    “It was an act lower than a brown snakes arsehole”

    I completely agree. Gillard and the associated drones should never have tried to manipulate in such a way. But then we know the lengths the red headed clown will go to, to get her snout on tv. Those snake arseholes must really be causing an itch to Gillard’s nose.
    ————————————————————–

    childish schoolyard type response morpheus

  44. Boerwar:

    I’m looking forward to an end to the wasteful spending.

    We’ll just have to forget about the DAP, LOTO PPL.

  45. For all the comments on these blogs I have yet to see one from a Liberal that explains how taking money from the lowest paid workers and yet providing a gold plated PPL is good for the country. Or how removing penalty rates from the lowest paid workers, mainly women is good and meets Abbotts criteria that no household will be worse off.

  46. Boerwar@633

    I am looking forward to Abbott bringing down electricity prices and gas prices in 15 weeks time.

    He has certainly gone to town about them over the past four years.

    Plus 2,000,000 jobs.

    I’m voting for Tone with that lot! Who wouldn’t!

  48. There is a curious one page article in ‘The Australian’ today about a plea from BAE for work to keep Williamstown open.

    The logic appears to be that we need to keep the dockyard open to build ships so we need to build ships to keep the dockyard open…and so on and so forth.

    BTW, Australia is building some Air Warfare Destroyers. The hull welding on the first one was so bad that it has to be done again.

    Two year delay in the delivery date…

    Yet another reason to buy off-the-shelf design, built overseas, from people who build lots of subs.

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