Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition

The first post-budget poll shows a negative reaction to the budget, but is otherwise one of Labor’s less bad results of recent times.

The first poll in the post-budget avalanche is a Galaxy survey of 1006 respondents showing the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. While it shows a highly negative reaction to the budget in terms of effect on personal finances (14% expect to be better off against 48% worse off), support for abolition of the baby bonus is remarkably high (64% in favour, 22% opposed). Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen, Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan should all be joining the party over the coming days.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

818 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 12 of 17
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  1. jv

    You going to cry corruption to smear organisations then you can start with banks world wide. Secret accounts a good place to start concealing all that laundered drug and terrorist money.

  3. So JV’s objection is NOT to the domination of Labor by ex-union officials, it’s only to domination by union officials who do not agree with his politics.

  4. Socrates

    I think you will find that you are sounding a bit like Adam Smith.

    Adam Smith identified that without checks and balances then man may succumb to greed

  5. spur212 @ 485

    The only issue the ALP can talk about without it transforming into Liberal Party comms material is the NBN. Can’t even talk about education anymore thanks to the University cuts. It’s very disturbing

    Its not just the cuts to students and university funding, its the fact also that the budget reveals that in the next 2 years support for schools (inc. Gonski) will be lower than what was originally budgeted.

    Fairfax Media analysis reveals federal support for schools would be $21 million lower in 2014-15 and $136 million lower in 2015-16, compared with what was previously budgeted.

    In these years the extra cash offered under the Gonski reforms is exceeded by the ”redirection” of money earmarked for national partnership programs.

    And

    The Prime Minister has vowed to lift federal funding for schools by $9.8 billion over the next six years, but the budget shows the majority of increases will occur in the later years.

    Opposition education spokesman Christopher Pyne said the new analysis showed the government was ”attempting to perpetrate an education swindle on the Australian people”. He said even more was being saved if higher education cuts were taken into account.

  6. [514

    The other way of putting this is that 30 years of rising prosperity, much of it due to the reforms of the Hawke-Keating government, is effectively abolishing the working class as traditionally understood. That’s one reason why Labor’s once-impregnable base in western Sydney is evaporating.]

    This understates the real extent of income inequality in Australia. Fully 70% of households have incomes that are equal to or less than average incomes, reflecting median household incomes that are only about two-thirds of average incomes. This is also related to the transformation in the structure, demographics and stratification of the labour force.

    As well, it is very clear that Government tax and transfer payments play a very significant role in income equalisation among the population, without which poverty would be far more common than it now is. This reflects the success of Labor – over many decades – in extending the role of the State in the supply of health, educational and income support systems, but does not mean that primary inequality has been eradicated from the system. Far from it.

    What is becoming more and more obvious is that the last LNP government subverted the tax system to such an extent that it now no longer supports the suite of Commonwealth spending programs. This reality was concealed during the credit bubble from 1996 onwards, but is very obvious now. Unless the tax system is rebuilt, cuts of social programs will eventually follow.

    The very idea of “rising prosperity” is at least partly illusory because it has been predicated on the expanded indebtedness of Australian households. This means that vast swathes of middle and low income Australia have “brought forward” future consumption and, unless something new turns up, will have to start to reduce the rate of growth of their consumption in future.

    This has very important consequences for economic and political dynamics in coming years, and means, as far as I can see, it is far too early to claim the working class has been “abolished”. It is simply in the process of being re-structured.

  7. Saw the Turner at the Tate exhibition today at SA Gallery and I loved it. An excellent cross section of the artist’s work throughout his career, well laid out and explained. Worth every cent.

  8. There are over 100 unions in Australia and 4/5 more extreme or radical.

    It is so ridiculous/unintelligent/close minded the tar the other 95/96 with the same brush.

    The Shop Distributors Union is the largest in Austarlia, they look after the sales people and check “chicks”, when did you last see them rioting on the streets?

    And yet when you see their low wages and Abbott attcking them even more with his stopping the $500 contribution to super and stating he will get rid of penalty rates, they are probably the most entitled to riot

  9. I am pretty sure that the SDA is far more socially conservative than the body of retail industry workers.

  10. Well Its almost time for one of the stranger voting systems about after some entertainment. Eurovision Finals time broadcast commences at 7:30

  11. Regarding pollies with union backgrounds, I must agree with Psephos that this is a problem for the Labor left as well as right. Few have had real jobs, hence their lack of understanding of the pressures on normal people leading normal careers. In fact, some of the worst examples have come from the Labor left, notably Ian MacDonald in NSW. Faulkner commented on this a few weeks ago.

  12. briefly

    Is this income inequality best addressed by attacking those that are doing okay or does it highlight the need to invest more in those that face barriers.

    By doing well i mean the people that are on between $60k and $90k

  13. [543
    Psephos
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

    We notice that JV only objects to Labor Right politicians entering Parliament via unions. Where does he think C Evans, P Wong, M Ferguson, L Ferguson, D Cameron, L Tanner, K Carr, M Butler came from? All from Left unions. The only Left members of the current government I can think of who do NOT have union backgrounds are Albanese (party official), Macklin (economist) and Plibersek (public servant).]

    Stephen Smith…advisor to Attorney-General Berinson, State Secretary, aide to Keating…

  14. AussieAchmed

    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 2:51 pm | Permalink

    and last but not least

    10. “The Prime Minister guaranteed there would be no carbon tax — but there is.”

    Nauseating hypocrisy from the man who told the Greens and Independents
    ===============================================================\\

    what about the other one

    never never the g s t

    remember that

  17. There is also another problem, there is a myth held by many hiring managers that you cannot change from the public to the private sector so combine that with the need to have a degree we can see why the pool of senior policy makers is seen as narrow.

  18. Mb

    I was trying to sound more like John Rawls, whose works Labor policy people would do well to read, if they want to understand what justice is.
    http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/rawls/

    But yes, I am very fond of the writing of Adam Smith, as long as it is quoted in context. Smith was a moral philosopher, and his many qualifying statements on the virtues of markets are often ignored by economists, many of whom I suspect have never read his books in full.

  19. Tom the first and best

    [
    I am pretty sure that the SDA is far more socially conservative than the body of retail industry workers.]
    You are too polite. The hegemony of the pre Vatican II troglodytes in the SDA and other unions and the power they wield in the name of their members is a cancer. Feck ’em all.

  21. Socrates
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 5:21 pm | Permalink
    Regarding pollies with union backgrounds, I must agree with Psephos that this is a problem for the Labor left as well as right. Few have had real jobs, hence their lack of understanding of the pressures on normal people leading normal careers. In fact, some of the worst examples have come from the Labor left, notably Ian MacDonald in NSW. Faulkner commented on this a few weeks ago.
    ———————————————————–

    Abbott was journalist for the Australina and Bulletin.

    The majority of Lib MP were lawyers before entering Parliament….”in touch” with real people and ahving “real” jobs Libs 1 x professional fisherman 1 x former cop and two farmers

  22. Psepho
    [“So JV’s objection is NOT to the domination of Labor by ex-union officials, it’s only to domination by union officials who do not agree with his politics.”]

    You keep sub-blogging. My complaint is with the structure that allows the domination /central control of careerists who have no representative base. My solution is to open the party up to the control of rank and file members instead of hollow careerists. It shouldn’t be too much to ask, given the negative impact the hollowing out of the party has had on the vote.

  23. [Regarding pollies with union backgrounds, I must agree with Psephos that this is a problem for the Labor left as well as right. Few have had real jobs, hence their lack of understanding of the pressures on normal people leading normal careers.]

    That’s not really the issue we were discussing. My personal observation is that Labor ministers, whatever their faction or background, do understand these issues quite well. An example is the excellent work Shorten did in the disabilities area. Arbib, also a machine product, also had a real passion for Indigenous employment issues.

    Furthermore, I’d much rather have the dullest union hacks in Parliament (and we do have some very dull ones) than the kind of people the Libs are now promoting, like Briggs, Hawke and Frydenberg. Briggs and Hawke went directly from university to ministerial adviser to Parliament. So did Frydenberg, apart from a stint in New York with a bank. These people get all their ideas from the Young Libs and the IPA, with no contact with the real world at all. They’re much more dangerous than either Labor Left (Cameron) or Labor Right (Farrell) career union officials.

  24. [562
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    briefly

    Is this income inequality best addressed by attacking those that are doing okay or does it highlight the need to invest more in those that face barriers.

    By doing well i mean the people that are on between $60k and $90k]

    We need to do more to expand the productive potential on the economy (increasing savings/investment); favouring the disposable incomes of households in the lower 4/5 of the economy (tilting whole tax and social spending system in their favour); abolishing the tax shelters (which distort/disrupt investment); investing more in education and training (because they are keys to personal economic advancement as well as economic dynamism).

    We also have to recognise that the share of the economy allocated to the Commonwealth’s own progams – defence, social spending – is just 16% of GDP. We are only raising at best 15% of the economy for these purposes. The Commonwealth will need to INCREASE its spending, which means we must revamp the tax direct system and drive economic growth at the same time. Considering the demographic drag that is starting to affect the economy and the budget, we should get on with this without delay.

  25. [565
    Psephos
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

    Stephen Smith is not from the Left.]

    But one of his many qualities.

  27. 569

    The grouper influence in the unions is outdated. Their attitudes are largely pre-Vatican II but then so are those of much of the Catholic Church hierarchy, so very conservative Catholics will do.

    Taking the SDA as an example, their anti-marriage equality views, currently its main obstacle, are contrary to the interests of retail workers who sell things that are worn, given, eaten, decorative, etc at weddings. Considering the demographics of the retail industry workforce, their “pro life” activism would disproportionately effect they industry`s workers negatively.

  28. [My solution is to open the party up to the control of rank and file members ]

    If you say “Labor voters” I’ll agree with you. The so-called “rank and file members” are 60% ethnic stacks (thanks, Kim Carr) and 40% retired school teachers. The average age of genuine members (ie, not stacks) is about 60. I’d abolish branch membership altogether, and have MPs chosen at primary elections.

  30. Psephos

    Well, at least that suggests a willingness to see change. Not sure about primaries though. The US example is not a good one. Money elects.

  31. 578

    My issue with the American model is that party membership gives parties an organised funding and volunteering base that the lack of leads to the American`s excessive influence of campaign donations. Increasing rank and file membership through greater membership control of the party, probably including choosing the leader, would be a better option.

  34. Psephos –
    If you say “Labor voters” I’ll agree with you. The so-called “rank and file members” are 60% ethnic stacks (thanks, Kim Carr) and 40% retired school teachers. The average age of genuine members (ie, not stacks) is about 60. I’d abolish branch membership altogether, and have MPs chosen at primary elections.
    ———————————————————–

    You got anything that proves your claim or is it just that? an uneducated ill-informed opinion…

  36. Lizzie @558

    Why don’t you actually read the IMF report itself (its online) and work out for yourself why the SMH article was confected bullshit rather than trying to regurgitate the same bile your masters instruct you to do ?

    Let me make it really easy for you and in SIMPLE words. THERE … WAS… NO…. MENTION…. OF…. AUSTRALIA… IN…. THE …. IMF…. STUDY. and even the IMF have backed away from the extrapolations made with their data (not by them)…

  37. I appreciate the point Psephos makes on some union pollies like Shorten and Arbib and their understanding of issues like disabilities and aboriginal affairs. Though those were not the issues I was referring to.

    What they lack is an understanding of the average job and job holder, and on who is poor. There are now many more people with degrees, and also now many degree holders on fairly low wages. With lots of competitors their bargaining power is low, yet Labor does very little for them unless they happen to be in a strongly unionised sector. Some of the strongest unions represent sectors where wages are so high that the social justice case for championing their cause now does not exist. Those in Labor seem to have an attitude that it is somehow the fault of those in a sector with a weak union for being in that situation. Having spent most of my career in one (engineering) I disagree. The were relevant unions, which I did join, and they were utterly useless.

    The flip side of this criticism is that it is also an opportunity. After the wreckage clears on 14 September Labor and the union movement will need to energise and reconnect to workers to build a new base. If the unions will not give up power, then they need to build up membership to regain legitimacy. With Abbott in the lodge that is quite possible. I would start with the now hundreds of thousands of uni qualified workers in fields like law, accounting, health para-professionals, IT and engineering, Those who are young and/or not charted professionals are often on surprisingly low pay, for often quite poor conditions, with unpaid overtime.

    To illustrate the extent of the problem, when I studied both engineering and economics no representative of a union or equivalent even spoke to us about membership. The professional bodies that spoke did not mention wages or negotiating conditions. When I joined the public service I joined the relevant state union. It was almost four years before the first time that a rep even came to speak to us. I had no idea what they did.

  38. Psephos

    Giving members a majority say in the policy and positions of the party would see a surge of interest in joining, in my view.

    I don’t disagree about the old local branch structure though. Society has passed that model by. Membership activity online including discussion and voting is the obvious modern way.

  39. JulieB can go and consult with herself. Labor is under no obligation, ethical or otherwise, to consult with the riff-raff.

  40. Psephos
    [If you say “Labor voters” I’ll agree with you. The so-called “rank and file members” are 60% ethnic stacks (thanks, Kim Carr) and 40% retired school teachers. The average age of genuine members (ie, not stacks) is about 60. I’d abolish branch membership altogether, and have MPs chosen at primary elections.]
    Agree 100%. Of the people in my own generation who joined Labor when I did (mainly people I knew from Uni who would now all be in their 40s or 50s) not a single one remains a member.

  41. As long as we have elected positions people will try to get people to vote for them.

    The method is not really important, some people will always complain it does not give them the result they want.

  44. confessions @585

    Oh, I wouldn’t go there if I were the ALP. Their red headed clown and associated drones have as much respect for truth in the community as the a QLD toad.

    BTW what happened to the multi million $$$ tax review that Kevie 07 set up ? And specifically asked that the GST NOT be included in the review as they knew the answer. The same answer that any economist with 3 brain cells (2 more than Swanny) would give. ALL OPTIONS SHOULD BE ON THE TABLE. Why do you think the red headed clown banished any talk of the GST at the business talkfest a while ago. BECAUSE she knew the same answer would be –> It needs to be considered.

    So the ALP are on for a serious kick in the head if they try to play the “trust us” card when they have absolutely no trust with the community. Swanny and GIllard has ensured that only the ALP drones will lap anything they do (including ripping off money from single mothers, raiding superannuation and promising to to increase the MC levy to fund the NDIS and then spin around only a few months later). And the coaltion can continue saying “at least any changes we propose will be presented BEFORE the next election. Something the red headed clown didn’t have the decency to do with the CT before the last”

  45. ruawake

    The problem is that the party structure and processes are not democratic. That’s why they all left.

  46. Does anyone still give a GOnski now that it is clear the ALP have ripped more money out of education that they were supposed to put in ?

  47. Morpheus

    Why are you so worried, I thought your mob was supposed to be in front.

    The Henry Tax review was released for all too see. What happened to the Ergas Tax review, Turnbull read flat tax and went into shock, He then hid it for eternity.

  48. Bushfire@423 – just catching up on posts, thank you for your reply. Yes, as with a lot of new technology maybe worth waiting to see how the 3D printers are developed over the next few years. Might sniff around on the web to learn more. Facing with aluminium sheet sounds sexy. 🙂

  50. In addition to an increase in the GST, the coalition is going to this election with a promise to introduce a great big new tax on absolutely everything we consume, including mortgage interest rates.

    As Ms Tingle said this morning, the LOTO PPL is just bizarre.

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