Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition

The first post-budget poll shows a negative reaction to the budget, but is otherwise one of Labor’s less bad results of recent times.

The first poll in the post-budget avalanche is a Galaxy survey of 1006 respondents showing the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. While it shows a highly negative reaction to the budget in terms of effect on personal finances (14% expect to be better off against 48% worse off), support for abolition of the baby bonus is remarkably high (64% in favour, 22% opposed). Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen, Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan should all be joining the party over the coming days.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

818 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Boerwar:

    I think it remains to be seen what collateral damage the opps will suffer as a result of their stupidity over Rowland.

  5. [Michelle Rowland was wrong to use her child for political point scoring]

    This is a completely malicious allegation. If the pair had been granted, no-one would have ever heard of Rowland’s kid. It was Entsch-Pyne-Abbott who made it an issue.

  7. [Michelle Rowland was wromg to use her child for political point scoring, and Gillard did the same. Abbott had nothing to do with it.]

    Some seriously twisted, desperate arse covering from the Coalition going on there.

  9. Boerwar:

    I’m hoping the next time the LOTO tries to present himself as the so-called ‘sensible centre’ on IR there’ll be a Labor MP quick to remind people that the Abbott Liberals tried to keep a mother at work when she requested ‘time off’ to attend to her sick toddler.

    Cue those Workchoices adverts where the mum is sacked because she can’t come into work because she has a sick child.

  10. Psephos,

    My comment on Belgium:

    “6 Belgium.

    Not a country known for humour. Putting on Roberto must be their idea of a joke.

    No voice. Can’t sing. The supporting ladies can’t do whatever they are supposed to do.”

  14. TLBD

    Yeah a typical response

    “@scottsues: Abbott “stronger borders, stop the boats” ad during #SBSEurovision? Nice one, idiot.”

  15. It’s not shown that Abbott knew. Regardless, don’t become a politician if you can’t be away from your child. And don’t create a song and dance if you’re so concerned fro the child. Nevertheless, she won’t have the problem next election. I’m from her electorate, I should know.

  20. “@larryemdur: hey Malta guy, that huge, fake, insincere toothy , impossibly white smile doesn’t work …. Trust me , I know #SBSEurivision”

    😆

  21. Why a government bidget is not a household budget.

    ]http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2012/11/2/interest-rates/why-government-debt-must-grow-forever

  23. Jack Hammer….From what I read on this and other blog sites, it is, without fail, always the right-wing posters who display the most pretentious and self-delusionary buffoonery. You, with your verbal mummery, are just another right-wing buffoon whose best efforts at serious commentry merely move any opinion of yourself from pathos to bathos!

  24. jack hammer,

    [And don’t create a song and dance if you’re so concerned fro the child]

    My kids are with you on this one. They think the Eurovision is a load of crap also.

  26. [That ad did the LNP no favours: it was awful!]

    It was toxic.

    Remember that the LOTO has constructed his very own Great Big New Tax just to try to repulse women voters a little less. Last thing he needs is a whole new battleground around women in the workforce, our guilt about our obligations at home, and an unintended intersection with IR policy.

  28. briefly @ 728

    Many thanks for your 738. Much appreciate this information.

    If the GST were increased to 12.5% according to your information this would add .25% of 3.4%, to the current GST proportion of GDP. i.e. .85%. Add this .85% in turn to the forecasted proportion of receipts to GDP, 23.5%,(i.e. 24.35%) for 2013- 14, you get close to forecasted spending of 24.5% and a balanced budget.

    So I’m not sure how you can make this statement above: –

    Considering the GST is only equivalent to 3.4% of GDP, even if the rate were increased to 15%, by itself this will not stabilise public finance.

  29. Anyone remember the “Bloody Idiot” adds? Well that’s me. Put my iPhone on the roof of my car Friday morning while I loaded stuff into the car and of course I drove off with the phone still on the roof. Lost it at the first round-a-bout and a tradie saw it on the road and picked it up. He finally tracked me down and me and the phone were finally re-connected today. So back on the air.

  30. Isn’t it funny, all the strange people that arrive on PB always seem to live in the electorate of the ALP or Independent MP they are criticising AND they know the MP won’t have to worry after the election as they are finished.. Remember dear Natalie lived in Oakey’s electorate until a couple of us called her? out. Never to be seen again 😀 and we were going to invite Natalie to our PB get together too. Going to held this Thursday too what a shame Natalie has vanished.

  33. [davidwh
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 8:50 pm | PERMALINK
    A 5% increase in the GST would raise around $30 billion pa.]

    You mean from 10 to 15% I presume (rather than from 10 to 10.5%?

  35. [A 5% increase in the GST would raise around $30 billion pa.]
    And reduce the purchasing power of non savers by an almost equal amount.

  37. dwh

    ‘A 5% increase in the GST would raise around $30 billion pa’

    Are those your instructions? Last week we had the Liberals here saying that the NDIS was Abbottcare (hint, hint, Abbott wanted to take the credit for the NDIS and was going to support it) but that Gonski was Gone. Hint, hint, prepare the pipples for Gonski is Gone.

    In that context is it your task to soften us up for Abbott increasing the GST by 5%?

  39. [Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 8:52 pm | PERMALINK
    mari
    Expat came and went. Pom came and went.]

    Has SeanT been seen today making his idiotic Comments :devil:

    Another one was of course Mattie who knew from 3 was it he was an LNP voter? Plus the oldie from back of Bourke who either vanished or dropped off the twig?

  40. My worst one was my GPS. I had popped it on the roof so that it could catch some satellites. Forget it, then took off. Such was my smooth driving that it eventually slid off the roof and onto the bonnet… where it remained as the car decelerated very, very gradually…

  41. [A 5% increase in the GST would raise around $30 billion pa.]

    Raising consumption taxes disproportionately impacts low income households.

    That is why I am glad Swan has ruled out raising the GST under his watch.

  42. davidwh @ 778

    Reminds me in March when we visited WA. My wife left her Kindle on the car roof as were leaving a BNB. Out on the road it fell onto the bonnet then over the roof of the car so fortunately we saw it. We retrieved it from the road just before a car came past. Still worked fortunately.

  45. [Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 8:52 pm | PERMALINK
    mari
    Expat came and went. Pom came and went.]

    Do you mean “Expat follower”?

    This poster still reads PB every now and then….

  46. Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, May 19, 2013 at 8:56 pm | PERMALINK
    mari
    No couth
    😀

    BTW See you are back tonight MOD LIB you havn’t told me yet if you managed to get your euros like Mrs Diogenes and I did the day before the dollar dropped?

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