The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated on the sidebar, adding four polls (Newspoll, Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL) which told an all but identical story on two-party preferred after house bias adjustment. BludgerTrack has Labor, the Coalition and the Greens are all slightly down on the primary vote, translating into a slight increase in the Coalition’s already commanding lead on two-party preferred with no change on the seat projection. I have also had a cherished opportunity to update my projections for Tasmania, which has caused a 3.1% shift in Labor’s favour. This doesn’t make any difference to the seat projection, or to Tasmania’s position as the state with the biggest projected anti-Labor swing. However, the size of the shift on voting intention is a pointer to the shallowness of the data I’m working off for Tasmania.
Other matters:
• Gary “Angry” Anderson has been preselected as Nationals candidate for the Illawarra seat of Throsby, where it remains unclear if Labor incumbent Stephen Jones will be able to fend off threats to his preselection. This follows an unsuccessful bid by Anderson for Liberal preselection in Greenway, and the withdrawal of the candidate the Nationals initially chose in Throsby, Nick Cleary, who cited family reasons.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail lists 12 candidates for the Senate vacancy to be created by Barnaby Joyce’s candidacy in New England.
• Ian McAllister and Juliet Pietsch of the Australian National University have helpfully rolled together a bunch of Australian Election Study survey data to observe the evolution of electoral behaviour on a number of fronts, going back in some cases as far as the 1960s.
[“@ShoebridgeMLC: Eric Roozendaal is just about to resign from the NSW Parliament #nswpol”]
An opportunity for NSW ALP to inject some young talent albeit into the weirdos collective which is the NSW Upper House.
Expect the opportunity to be spurned.
Excellent progress. The Coalition has announced a policy.
‘Good will triumph over evil in Australian industry,’ according to Mirabella.
‘If the evil ones can’t stand the heat, they should just f*ck off out of the shed.’
Excellent progress. The Coalition has announced a policy.
‘Good will triumph over evil in Australian industry,’ according to Mirabella.
‘If the evil ones can’t stand the heat, they should just eff off out of the shed.’
Another BISON and a very important one for mothers and newborn babies:
[Best place in the world to be a mother is…
The index ranked countries according to five indicators of a mother’s well-being: maternal health (the risk of maternal mortality); children’s well-being (the mortality rate of children under five); educational status (number of years of formal schooling a woman receives); and political status (the participation of women in national government).
Finland was followed closely by its Nordic neighbors and other Western European countries. Australia was the only non-European country to place in the top 10. The United States ranked 30th…]
<a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/08/business/best-place-to-be-a-mother/index.html?hpt=hp_t4"http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/08/business/best-place-to-be-a-mother/index.html?hpt=hp_t4
shellbell
Not before time he is a Bast*rd with a capital “B”.
Good riddance to the mongrel.
Kudos to Stephen Hawking for joining the academic boycot of Israel over its continued illegal ooccupation of Palestine.
[The full text of the letter, dated 3 May, said: “I accepted the invitation to the Presidential Conference with the intention that this would not only allow me to express my opinion on the prospects for a peace settlement but also because it would allow me to lecture on the West Bank. However, I have received a number of emails from Palestinian academics. They are unanimous that I should respect the boycott. In view of this, I must withdraw from the conference. Had I attended, I would have stated my opinion that the policy of the present Israeli government is likely to lead to disaster.”]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/may/08/hawking-israel-boycott-furore
Too bad the right wing apologists in Labor lack the moral courage to do something similar.
Palestinians have few rights in Israel, and do not get to vote in Israeli elections, as even Israeli sources admit:
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/palestinians-should-vote-in-jerusalem-elections-1.389494
Soc
I hold your view as well good on you!
Gillard just now announcing a referendum on recognizing local government in the Constitution.
Good initiative.
Rummel
Plumber?
So you area turd-strangler! 😀
(It was the answer fior a soccer-club quiz night question, ‘What is a plumber’s nickname?’. The Prez was a plumber. He knew the answer.)
Boerwar
Just heard that announcement as well would that mean that the Local Government can’t be sacked.
Morning peeps.
Things pretty chirpy around our house at the minute. After being told radio therapy couldn’t go ahead due to risk to heart and spine we now have a second (more qualified) opinion that says they can. Bloody brilliant. Back in the fight. Yippee!!
🙂 🙂 🙂
And just in case you missed it:
[Inconsistency piled on stupidity. Abbott is trying to hold up a rickety tower of jibberish built on a foundation of bullshit. It has to come crashing down around his ears.
Ratsak]
😀
[My daughter had initially alerted me to this website. She said that all her ui friends were passing it around too. Maybe just maybe, the young are going to vote accordingly!!]
Victoria unfortunately the website is pure spin.
It compares the Coalition NBN’s *SLOWEST* speed with Labor NBN’s *HIGHEST* speed. How is that comparing apples with apples?
But the spin doesn’t stop there.
The Labor NBN’s Highest Speed you can’t even get at the moment. The highest speed on the NBN at the moment is 100Mb/s so why did he put it as 1Gb/s?
So much spin… so many lies.
Turnbull shown up for the sook he is — someone puts up a site comparing the REAL NBN speeds to the Coalition’s, and Turnbull accuses him of being ‘Conroy’s BFF”.
Turns out the guy’s a Liberal.
Gecko
Excellent news! All the best
Sean Tisme
Crap (as usual)
http://delimiter.com.au/2010/08/12/conroy-promises-1gbps-nbn-speeds/
[someone puts up a site comparing the REAL NBN speeds to the Coalition’s]
By real speeds you mean fake speeds you can’t even get on Labors NBN at the moment?
Sean Tisme
You would say that. Try telling these uni students who are studying electrical engineering. They understand physics
Vic :kiss:
Gecko… it’s an aspiration.
It’s not an actual purchasable speed at the moment.
Turnbulls aspiration is to have 50Mb/s minimum speed so why wasn’t that compared with the Gigabit speed?
It’s just spin mate… pure, unadultered SPIN. You can’t compare future possible speeds with the slowest speed of the Coalition.
Sean Tisme
Oh and btw my NBN friend who is an engineer confirms it too
MTBW
Thanks. When you look at the treatment of Palestinian workers in Israel, a virtual permanent underclass, I cannot comprehend how any person describing themselves as caring about the rights of workers could support Israel.
The treatment of Palestinians, many of whom are Marionite Christians, and neither Arabs nor moslems, has nothing to do with fears of Islamic terrorism, which comes from entirely different groups. That propaganda is one of Israel’s great lies. It is instead a blatant land grab by a military aggressor.
Puff @ 58 ‘ S bend engineer’ , thankyou
Back to work for me, have a good day.
Victoria how many people have a 1Gb/s connection to the NBN.
Honest answer now please
Sean Tisme
Why dont you go and console Turnbull of Utegate fame. He is having a big sook
Let’s assume there is a queue of boycott-worthy countries that can be organised from most- to least- boycott worthiness.
Why would Israel be on top of this list for any thinking individual?
The arguments brought forward for boycotting Israel basically devolve any or all of five arguments:
(1) Israel uses disproportionate force to maintain an unust or illegal situation.
(2) Israel breaches people’s rights.
(3) Israel imposes race- and or religious- based policies.
(4) Israel ignores UN resolutions.
(5) Israel is not as democratic as it ought to be.
(6) Israel is a standing threat to Middle East peace.
(7) Israel treats its arab/palestinian population with brutality.
I don’t propose to go into the ins and outs of the substance of these arguments.
But what I would maintain is that there are countries with far worse records than Israel, under some or all of these headings, about which no invidual seems compelled to make public declarations endorsing the vital necessity of boycotting said country.
So, really, why should Israel be top of the pops for personal public boycott declarations?
That nbd speed test is killing the libs and exposing their fraudband for the lie it is.
25 MBPS is their TOP speed and most of the pubic wont even get it.
Sean Tisme
Be honest now, why dont you go and tell your coalition friends that Everyone is waking up to fraudband
MTBW
‘Boerwar
Just heard that announcement as well would that mean that the Local Government can’t be sacked.’
Who knows?
The main issue here would be the ability of the Commonwealth to fund local government directly without the states and territories plundering the funds and generally messing up funding programs.
Sean Tisme
Let is be honest. Consumers have to pay $5000.00 for the privilege of fraudband. You gotta bloody laugh.
Poor Turnbull, He is a dud
Victoria, it was a very simple question.
How many people have a 1Gb/s connection to the NBN?
Comparing the Coalitions MINIMUM speed with Labors MAXIMUM speed… a MAXIMUM speed you can’t even purchase at the moment sounds like pure Spin to me.
An honest person would show what both maximum speeds at the moment can do which is about 80mb/s for the Coalition plan an 100Mb/s for Labors.
Apart from the laughable ‘we’re making cuts but we’re not going to tell you where’ aspect of the Victorian budget, the bit that is a real worry is ‘efficiency dividends’.
This is classic pea and thimble stuff (and yes, both sides do it..)
What happens is the government announces with a flourish that they have increased spending on, say, hospitals, by 2.5% (which barely keeps up with inflation).
But they then impose on all government organisations an efficiency dividend of 2.5%.
Which means the flourish is just that – not only is there no actual increase in funding, but there’s no real one, either (because the organisation not only has to find 2.5% for the ‘dividend’ but their costs have gone up by more than that anyway).
Said government can then say “We allocated more to health/education/ambulances/police services than any government previously” when they have, in real terms, made a cut of 2.5%.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/napthines-1b-secret-cuts-20130508-2j887.html
[That nbd speed test is killing the libs and exposing their fraudband for the lie it is.
25 MBPS is their TOP speed]
Thats a complete lie… it’s the minimum speed not the maximum.
How can Labor supporters win the debate if they can’t be honest?
Turnbull will be remembered for
HIH
godwin Grech – utegate
Rainmaking machine
And now fraudband
LOL!
Sean Tisme
You are on safer ground trying to demonise refugees or peddle lies about carbon pricing, other Menzies House staples.
On NBN, you are pushing it up hill with Abbott’s Fraudband proposal. More expensve, slower, inequitable – in short it stinks. Live with it.
SeanTisme
Consumers will have to pay $5000 for the privilege of fraudband. The voters are onto this. There is no where for Turnbull to hide. Abbott has dudded him again!
[Turnbulls aspiration is to have 50Mb/s minimum speed so why wasn’t that compared with the Gigabit speed?]
Te he. I don’t know mate. Perhaps we should ask the Liberal genius who set it up. In the meantime poor Malcolm aspires to an apple but all day and everyday he has nothing more than a lemon. 😀
Sean Tisme @ 61 So much spin… so many lies.
Rather like the News Limited-Liberal Coalition’s launch of Fraudband with the contention that the government’s NBN cost was $94 million.
Sean
[By real speeds you mean fake speeds you can’t even get on Labors NBN at the moment?]
Er, you can’t get the Liberal ones, either – so any comparison is bound to be hypothetical.
So on your logic, the Liberal speeds are ‘fake’ as well.
Dorry – Billion
Keep squealing tism, keep squealing.
Speeds of up to 80mbps are already available for the lucky few who have the foxtel coaxial cable.
Fraudband doesnt alter or increase that.
Their top speed for the majority will be 25mbps.
Suck it up.
Sean
[An honest person..]
No, I said he was a Liberal voter.
[How can Labor supporters win the debate if they can’t be honest?]
It was an audit!
Weapons of mass destruction!
Children over board!
Interest rates will always be lower under the Coalition!
Hey that was cheap. :p
I know this guy, and like many tech people he knows his stuff and wants to get it right. You see the same thing with tech journalists.
How can Labor supporters win the debate if they can’t be honest?
I don’t accept your contention. In any case, half-truths and outright lies seem to be working quite well for the Coalition.
@Sean Tisme/61
Your lying.
The website is comparing what available on the plans.
Turnbull has promised by 2016, 25Mbps.
So Stop Lying.
zoomster
‘This is classic pea and thimble stuff (and yes, both sides do it..)
What happens is the government announces with a flourish that they have increased spending on, say, hospitals, by 2.5% (which barely keeps up with inflation).
But they then impose on all government organisations an efficiency dividend of 2.5%’
The critical thing to understand is the difference between running costs and capital costs.
The efficiency dividend is applied only to running costs.
The increased ‘hospital’ spending could still applied to capital costs, for example building a new hospital.
The real policy issue arising from a decrease in running costs of 2.5% and an increasing in hospital capital costs by 2.5% is whether there will be any staff to work in the new hospital.
But wait, there is more. Let’s assume that the ‘fixed’ running costs of hospitals (staff, electricity, maintenance, water, etc) will increase in line with general COL costs, then de facto, the running costs would have to offset the COL.
In that case there will be a de facto decrease in running costs of: efficiency dividend 2.5% and increased COL costs of, say, 3% for a total of, say around 5.5% per annum.
This 5.5% has to be found somewhere. The easiest way is to reduce staff numbers and increase the ‘efficiency’ of surgeons, doctors, slushos and so on and so forth. Since this is difficult, the easiest way to obtain the ‘efficiency’ dividend is actually to sack staff.
So the real impact of the combined policies is that they are effectively a mechanism for sacking hospital staff.
In the short term this will increase waiting lists – unless you can get surgeons to cut faster and get surgery patients to hop off the operating table and into a taxi.
Twenty years of this sort of policy rubbish and you are looking at Yes Ministers! empty hospital syndrome.
I urge you to have a look at this Jon Stewart summary of the recent NRA convention. In particular just look at what the GOP types trot out.
Surely that nation is a mess!
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/stewart-nra-convention-same-lineup-cpac-be
The Murdocracy in climate deception overdrive this week:
1. “It won’t be that bad at all” (says one study compared to observed 3cm/decade and accelerating sea level rises and record observed melting. The headline and article highlights the low estimate for Greenland’s estimated contributions – “it could be as low as 7% of predicted rises” – ignoring the fact that models have a wide range and a “most likely” central figure. Why did they not highlight the “as high as” estimate I wonder?)
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/glacial-sea-rises-not-so-severe-according-to-new-modelling/story-e6frg8y6-1226637973506
2. “Don’t worry that Greenland is experiencing record melting (contradicting our more prominently highlighted story above) – it’s just low cloud (but that’s not climate change, it’s weather)”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/low-clouds-overlooked-in-ice-melt-modelling/story-e6frgcjx-1226611977776
3. “It’ll be good for frogs” (tell that to the amphibians of southern Australia’s former “wetlands”)
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/climate-change-antidote-for-frog-fungus/story-e6frgcjx-1226602457642
4. “Scientists are still not sure if/how much we are causing it and other pollution will counteract greenhouse gasses if only those fucking greenies would let us pollute as we like to”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/emissions-debate-heats-up-while-experts-warn-of-a-coming-ice-age/story-e6frg6xf-1226634874185
On the last point – it does seem Clean Air Acts in developed countries did result in rising global temperatures – but thank dogness for China and India polluting like we used to. This as well as a decline in solar activity more probably explain the slowing in warming over the last decade – but what happens when they reduce their air pollution and solar activity rises again?
There used to be a debate about whether paddle wheelers were more efficient than propellor boats. So they hooked a paddle wheeler to a propellor boat and had a tug of war. The propellor boat towed the paddle wheeler backwards. End of argument.
Turnbull is a paddle wheeler head.