BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition

The lately weekly poll aggregate finds Labor continuing to rise groggily from the canvas. But has something gone awry for them in South Australia?

With fresh results added from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate moves about half a point in Labor’s favour for the third week in a row. Since the immediate wake of the leadership crisis, Labor has recovered 2.1% on the primary vote and the Coalition has lost five on the seat projection after getting to within a hair’s breadth of triple figures four weeks ago (although the Coalition primary vote is down only 0.6%). The trend is now discernible to the naked eye on the sidebar charts, although it’s far too early to interpret it as anything more than a correction.

I’ve also been able to update my state relativities with data kindly provided by ReachTEL, and the revised projection shows one state bucking the trend. Last week I noted an apparent downturn for Labor in South Australia, and observed the addition of further data could cause their position there to sink rapidly. The latest result, small of sample though it may be, has done exactly that, coming as it does on the back of four successive poor results for Labor in Nielsen’s state breakdowns. Labor’s standing in South Australia has accordingly fallen 1.0% below the national result, after being all but level in last week’s projection and 3.1% higher at the 2010 election. This is illustrated in the charts to the right, which track South Australia’s deviation from the national results over the current term for the Labor and Coalition on the primary vote and for Labor on two-party preferred. However, it should be cautioned that this wasn’t reflected in the January-March Newspoll result, which had by far the largest sample. Since the data points are weighted according to sample size, Newspoll has prevented the trendline from sinking considerably further.

Labor holds six out of 11 seats in South Australia, and while each of them looks safe enough on the Mackerras pendulum, all but one was held by the Liberals at some point during the Howard years. The three seats gained with the election of the Rudd government in 2007 all swung heavily to Labor in 2010, so that the margins surpassed what are now Labor’s two most marginal seats: Adelaide (7.5%) and its western coastal neighbour Hindmarsh (6.1%), both held by the Liberals from 1993 until 2004, when they were respectively gained for Labor by Kate Ellis and Steve Georganas. The seats gained in 2007 were Wakefield (10.5%) on Adelaide’s northern fringe and hinterland, Makin (12.0%) in its north-east, and Kingston (14.5%) in its outer south. Wakefield was created in its current form in 2004 when what had traditionally been a conservative semi-rural seat absorbed much of abolished Bonython in Adelaide’s Labor-voting outer north. David Fawcett managed a surprise win for the Liberals in 2004, and found his way back into parliament via the Senate after his defeat by Labor’s Nick Champion in 2007. Makin has gone with the government of the day since its creation in 1984, being held by Trish Draper through the Howard years and Tony Zappia since. Kingston was won by the Liberals at their two best elections in 1996 and 2004, but has otherwise been a Labor seat, the present incumbent being Amanda Rishworth.

For what it’s worth, Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reported six months ago that polling conducted for the Liberals by ReachTEL showed Labor set to lose Hindmarsh and Makin on swings of 12% and 17%. Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reported a fortnight ago that the Liberals were about to conduct polling in Wakefield after Holden cut 400 jobs at its Elizabeth plant, while Peter van Onselen in The Australian related that Labor plans to poll Hindmarsh and Adelaide were knocked on the head by the Prime Minister’s office due to fears the results would leak.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,030 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition”

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  3. DTT

    Well, got the e-forecast right then.

    A dopester who didn’t have a clue, never mentioned it, but now knows all about it.

    You never disappoint, DTT.

  10. The Indons are convinced howard conned Habibie the then Indon President when he ‘suggested’ in a letter that a vote on parting ways or staying with Indonesia be granted.

    Habibie thought the vote would go their way and when it didn’t he allocated ‘blame’ to howard and Australia.

    The Indon military etc then just destroyed everything in the place before they left and killed anyone they wanted.

  11. Sarah

    Been following e-waste for many years.

    You know nothing about me, so I suggest you stay civil.

    I seriously made preliminary investigations about going into the business. Decided the costs were too high because it had to be transported to Sydney.

  13. [Howard could have brought peace to the middle east ]

    John Howard couldn’t do up his shoe laces without Janette or the librarian helping him.

  14. ML:

    [Howard could have brought peace to the middle east …]

    No he couldn’t have. His starting point was US policy aims, which have nothing to do with a viable or just peace in the middle east.

    Let it be stipulated that without justice there can be no peace — only a lull in the fighting until the injustice becomes intolerable.

  19. Oh, Rummel, You know that garden you want to grow.

    To get any good results, I understand you have to plant according to the phases of the moon, after you have made an offering to the moon-goddess at full moon, whilst sky-clad.

  21. Perhaps Howard might have been motivated by his buddy, Madeleine Albright, whom someone else brought to mind tonight.

    [Lesley Stahl on U.S. sanctions against Iraq: We have heard that a half million children have died. I mean, that’s more children than died in Hiroshima. And, you know, is the price worth it?

    Secretary of State Madeleine Albright: I think this is a very hard choice, but the price–we think the price is worth it.

    –60 Minutes (5/12/96)]

    With pals like that, surely “peace in the Middle East” would be as easy as bowling on a mat in Pakistan. 😉

  23. [rummel
    Posted Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 10:36 pm | PERMALINK
    Treasurer = treasurer ]

    lol and i still got it back to front …….. hahaha

    im off to bed 🙂

  24. [With pals like that, surely “peace in the Middle East” would be as easy as bowling on a mat in Pakistan.]

    Fran: I thought we weren’t engaging in personal comments about pollies here? Hehe 🙂

  25. [1880
    Sarah Roberts

    Apparently mining a 500g-ingot of gold is easier to gain through processing e-waste than obtaining the same amount of gold through mining.

    Which means, that recycling can be considered as another form of mining.

    How about that!]

    Or that mining could be regarded as pre-cycling.

  26. rummel

    They gave the award for avoiding a recession, a recession that Chris Richards from Access Economics said we were almost certain to have.

    In fact, Cozzie was so impressed that Rudd/Swan had avoided a recession at the time, he thought it was impossible for Labor to lose in 2010 – so he quit politics.

    Biggest Loser award ever in politics goes to Cozzie!

  30. [Centre
    Posted Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 10:40 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel

    They gave the award for avoiding a recession, a recession that Chris Richards from Access Economics said we were almost certain to have.]

    Lighten up Center.

  31. [1856
    confessions

    poroti:

    Leyland?

    :lol:]

    Great Wall

    I’m sure I’ve met at least one person called Kia while about every second person in Japan is called Toyoda, Suzuki, Yamaha or Honda.

  33. CTar1

    [What do you think Howard should have done differently?]

    1. Prepared better for Bob Dyer’s BP Pick-a-box.
    2. Studied something more impressive than soliciting 😉
    3. Acquired a working knowledge of concepts like ethics and humanity

  34. CTar1:

    Fran was mocking Howard’s bowling.

    I keep hearing that we are not allowed to make any comments about Gillard, and yet there are endless insults directed at Abbott, Howard, Hockey, Pyne, Costello and every other Coalition MP or Senator.

    Every now and then I wonder about hypocrisy…..

  35. Mod Lib

    I wouldn’t be calling Aust’s first female PM a loser.

    On the other hand :mrgreen: would be more suited to entertaining tourists at Toronga Park than calling the shots on behalf of the country, that is frightening!

  36. [Centre
    Posted Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 10:47 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib

    I wouldn’t be calling Aust’s first female PM a loser.]

    Lets discuss on Sep 14th night when we know the magnitude of her win/loss, eh? 🙂

  37. [Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 10:47 pm | PERMALINK
    CTar1:

    Fran was mocking Howard’s bowling.

    I keep hearing that we are not allowed to make any comments about Gillard, and yet there are endless insults directed at Abbott, Howard, Hockey, Pyne, Costello and every other Coalition MP or Senator.]

    Ten bucks the chaser starts back up when Abbott is PM. The left just cant laugh at them self.

  39. No.

    I wouldn’t be calling someone with the honour of being Australia’s first female PM – a loser, regardless of an election outcome.

    The only mistake Gillard has ever done was to join the Labor Party and not the Liberal Party. The MSM would have been in love 😆

  42. [The only mistake Gillard has ever done was to join the Labor Party and not the Liberal Party. The MSM would have been in love ]

    Wrong! Liberals respect there elected PM’s so she would not have been able to knife anyone. Gillard would have just been another smirk.

  44. [The left just cant laugh at them self.
    Thats the same left you handed out HTV cards for ?]

    Same ones.

    Where are all the comedy shows chasing down Gillard on a weekly basis trying to take the piss out of her?

  45. [Where are all the comedy shows chasing down Gillard on a weekly basis trying to take the piss out of her?]

    my mistake….. i forgot the Simon Crean.

  46. Fran

    Despite the pundits I would not read TOO much in to the Lyndhurst by-election.

    Not good for Labor but it is JUST a by- election

  47. [Where are all the comedy shows chasing down Gillard on a weekly basis trying to take the piss out of her?]

    Well tomorrow morning we have:
    Insiders
    Bolt
    Meet the press

    🙂

  48. Mod Lib

    [and yet there are endless insults directed at Abbott, Howard, Hockey, Pyne, Costello]

    I wonder if there is a reason for this?

    Laughability possibly?

  49. daretotread @ 1893
    Posted Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 10:11 pm | PERMALINK
    [Sarah

    Also sorry to disillusion you but there is a pretty limited range of e-waste recycling facilities and most is shipped OS]
    That’s what I used to think until last week when I was told about this organisation.
    http://techcollect.com.au/
    Check them out.

  50. [1934
    Mod Lib

    CTar1:

    Fran was mocking Howard’s bowling.

    I keep hearing that we are not allowed to make any comments about Gillard, and yet there are endless insults directed at Abbott, Howard, Hockey, Pyne, Costello and every other Coalition MP or Senator.]

    But they attract insults, ML. They collect them, bale them together and send them for milling. After every worthwhile phrase has been extracted, they are rolled and formed into small many-shaped pellets and sprayed with coloured sugar syrup. After drying, they are served like popcorn in their own brand….Uncle Tony’s Empty Promises 🙂

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