With fresh results added from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate moves about half a point in Labor’s favour for the third week in a row. Since the immediate wake of the leadership crisis, Labor has recovered 2.1% on the primary vote and the Coalition has lost five on the seat projection after getting to within a hair’s breadth of triple figures four weeks ago (although the Coalition primary vote is down only 0.6%). The trend is now discernible to the naked eye on the sidebar charts, although it’s far too early to interpret it as anything more than a correction.
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I’ve also been able to update my state relativities with data kindly provided by ReachTEL, and the revised projection shows one state bucking the trend. Last week I noted an apparent downturn for Labor in South Australia, and observed the addition of further data could cause their position there to sink rapidly. The latest result, small of sample though it may be, has done exactly that, coming as it does on the back of four successive poor results for Labor in Nielsen’s state breakdowns. Labor’s standing in South Australia has accordingly fallen 1.0% below the national result, after being all but level in last week’s projection and 3.1% higher at the 2010 election. This is illustrated in the charts to the right, which track South Australia’s deviation from the national results over the current term for the Labor and Coalition on the primary vote and for Labor on two-party preferred. However, it should be cautioned that this wasn’t reflected in the January-March Newspoll result, which had by far the largest sample. Since the data points are weighted according to sample size, Newspoll has prevented the trendline from sinking considerably further.
Labor holds six out of 11 seats in South Australia, and while each of them looks safe enough on the Mackerras pendulum, all but one was held by the Liberals at some point during the Howard years. The three seats gained with the election of the Rudd government in 2007 all swung heavily to Labor in 2010, so that the margins surpassed what are now Labor’s two most marginal seats: Adelaide (7.5%) and its western coastal neighbour Hindmarsh (6.1%), both held by the Liberals from 1993 until 2004, when they were respectively gained for Labor by Kate Ellis and Steve Georganas. The seats gained in 2007 were Wakefield (10.5%) on Adelaide’s northern fringe and hinterland, Makin (12.0%) in its north-east, and Kingston (14.5%) in its outer south. Wakefield was created in its current form in 2004 when what had traditionally been a conservative semi-rural seat absorbed much of abolished Bonython in Adelaide’s Labor-voting outer north. David Fawcett managed a surprise win for the Liberals in 2004, and found his way back into parliament via the Senate after his defeat by Labor’s Nick Champion in 2007. Makin has gone with the government of the day since its creation in 1984, being held by Trish Draper through the Howard years and Tony Zappia since. Kingston was won by the Liberals at their two best elections in 1996 and 2004, but has otherwise been a Labor seat, the present incumbent being Amanda Rishworth.
For what it’s worth, Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reported six months ago that polling conducted for the Liberals by ReachTEL showed Labor set to lose Hindmarsh and Makin on swings of 12% and 17%. Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reported a fortnight ago that the Liberals were about to conduct polling in Wakefield after Holden cut 400 jobs at its Elizabeth plant, while Peter van Onselen in The Australian related that Labor plans to poll Hindmarsh and Adelaide were knocked on the head by the Prime Minister’s office due to fears the results would leak.
For a while there, I was stepmother to a Morgan, Austin and Forde.
Had no idea about cars. But they were all named after makes of cars.
Apparently that was the whole idea.
Uuuuuugggggghhhhhh.
*absolute shiver*
How fucking depressing.
Sarah
[Pull someone else’s chain, not mine.]
What ever.
A classy Child’s name ‘Paradigm Atomics’?
I think naming children after video game characters may end up becoming a bad trend.
I mean it’s already happening in places like Italy – lots of kids named Mario!
..and another called Khe-San.
I knew someone who had a beige Cedric 4 on the tree.
poroti:
Leyland?
😆
I always wonder about being called Jesus, which is very popular in some countries.
1611
Bushfire Bill
[Just take a look at the way the Coalition is trying to dampen down enthusiasm in its own ranks (to varying degrees of success), and the way the Lib-bots here feel the need to continually bolster up their own uncertainties with brash declarations of wipeout victories based only on polls to see whether the other side of politics believes the election is in the bag.
If the election was such a foregone conclusion they’d be a lot more relaxed about things.]
Stop the Gloats!
[..and another called Khe-San.]
I’m assuming they weren’t Vietnamese.
Zoomster
A child named ‘Land Cruiser’ would be very old fashioned.
‘fess
P-76 😆
confessions
[
poroti:
Leyland?
😆
]
Ah Leyland and the old jokes. Workers don’t clock on at Leyland they sign the visitors book. My dad came within an ace of buying a P-76 . The ability to put a couple of bales of hay in the boot was a big attraction 🙂 Ended up with a Valiant.
…Range Rover sounds like something out of ‘The Bold and The Beautiful”.
poroti
I had a friend who was seriously miffed when her husband hinted that he didn’t want bales of hay transported in the back seat of the new Merc.
She thought that was the reason they were so spacious.
‘fess
‘Fiat’ is good to go – a bit of legal force behind the child.
‘Toyota Corolla’ doesn’t quite cut it for me.
CTar:
“Leyland! You aren’t related to those boys. So put the lizard down and get back into the car.”
poroti
The CBR coppers used to call them P-38’s.
Only half a car …
‘fess
😆
Don’t interfere with the animals.
But isn’t the recycling of e-waste the best idea?
And, how fantastic it is that the Gillard govt implemented this idea in 2011
What does e-waste mean?
It means all those computer parts that you don’t know how to get rid of is able to be disposed.
All those cabinets, , monitors, wires, cables, motherboards, and every other god damn thing you can every think of that goes with a computer.
Every last one of them can be recycled.
And the Gillard govt legislated the disposal of outdated electronic communications in 2011.
And, not only that, the Gillard govt insisted that any company importing/exporting e-ware had to contribute to its recycling.
Those businesses who import and export computer electronics have yet to complain.
Who’s gunna ask Tony about this legislation?
The is ABC report re Abbott walking away from presset
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-26/fresh-concerns-on-liberal-gst-plans/4654680
Oops presser
1669
CTar1
[about the only good thing “the Rodent” did
I’ll give him two things – The gun buy back and Timor Leste…]
And he (and Downer) had to be dragged kicking and screaming by the public into the Timor business. They really really did not want to go there.
So only half a point for him on that one
[Don’t interfere with the animals.]
😀
1696
castle
[I like this labor party under the mafia like control of right wing liberal wannabies TP.
It has brought us the NBN, increased pensions, started a roll back of middle class welfare, started to address the tax rorts afforded the rich ala super, kept interest rates, inflation and unemployment low, is bringing us NDIS and Gonksi.
We need more labor parties under the mafia like control of right wing liberal wannabies I say.]
I’ll take more of that kind of government too.
[Just Me
Posted Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 9:39 pm | PERMALINK
1669
CTar1
about the only good thing “the Rodent” did
I’ll give him two things – The gun buy back and Timor Leste…
And he (and Downer) had to be dragged kicking and screaming by the public into the Timor business. They really really did not want to go there.
So only half a point for him on that one]
How many point do you give Whitlam?
Years ago I came across two children called “Amnesia” and “Australia”.
Those at PB will be stunned to hear that I kept a straight face and successfully resisted the temptation to make any witty remark, beyond the fairly straight “gosh … you don’t hear those often …”
poroti
[The ability to put a couple of bales of hay in the boot was a big attraction]
I thought a 44 galleon drum was the claim to fame?
Victoria
Abbott aka :monkey: does a damn good version of Sir Robin.
[
Brave Sir Robin ran away – No!
Bravely ran away, away – I didn’t!
When danger reared its ugly head
He bravely turned his tail and fled – No!
Yes, brave Sir Robin turned about
And gallantly he chickened out
Bravely taking to his feet
He beat a very brave retreat
Bravest of the brave, Sir Robin
]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4SJ0xR2_bQ
[Fran Barlow
Posted Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 9:42 pm | PERMALINK
Years ago I came across two children called “Amnesia” and “Australia”.]
Perhaps mum forgot dad but knew where he came from?
Apparently mining a 500g-ingot of gold is easier to gain through processing e-waste than obtaining the same amount of gold through mining.
Which means, that recycling can be considered as another form of mining.
How about that!
I know a doctor who was counselling parents about their baby who malformed Arms. Instead of using the kids name which was Angela, he kept calling the baby Amelia, which is the medical for a birth defect when the child is lacking a limb.
CTar1
The Valiant was also able to fit a 44 gallon drum in the boot.At the peeps we water skied with during summer it was the usual “offering” . Without taxes the farm price back then was $0.15 a gallon. Then the first “Oil Shock” hit.
poroti
Sir Robin indeed!
[How many point do you give Whitlam?]
Not many on that issue.
Though, in fairness, international real politik was very different then.
Nonetheless, not one of his finer moments.
I think you are being just a touch unfair to Howard. He did well with Timor L’este.
[Is Gai Waterhouse allowed to give information to a bookmaker about a horse she is training ?]
Not unless the information she gives to a bookmaker is disclosed to the public.
[Singo said Tom had info from Gai about his horse.]
If that is proven, Waterhouse will be suspended from training. Minimum penalty 6 months to maximum 2 years.
womble @ 1749
If it can be proven that Waterhouse supplied her son information that was unavailable to the betting public, not only will Gai be in trouble but her son will be charged with prior knowledge.
Don’t forget, Robbie was banned for nearly life for betting with prior knowledge of a horses chances… Fine Cotton!
[I think you are being just a touch unfair to Howard. He did well with Timor L’este.]
Between the government and the military it was handled well once it was decided to go in. No argument there.
But Howard very clearly did not want to do it in the first place. So he cannot claim any credit for that rather critical part of the process, which was driven almost entirely by the Australian public’s justified outrage. If it had been left to him we would never have gone in.
poroti
[a 44 gallon drum ]
I’ve floated on a few and wrestled some around with a pump in them.
Tractor’s are hungry beasts.
Just Me
The simple fact is that the Timor thing was done well – all participants knew that our troops were going to take no ‘shit’ – they’d shoot back.
Stop torrenting Game of Thrones, Australians. Orders from the White House. More from the Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/04/26/why-a-u-s-ambassador-asked-australians-to-stop-pirating-game-of-thrones/
Sarah
Now the product stewardship is good legislation but I will let you into a little secret. It was planned a long time ago – well before 2011. Indeed started way back when.
I personally had discussions on it in 2010 (met with some of the guys – was thinking of going into the business)
William
What me torrent Game of thrones. No no never. Well hardly ever
Sarah
Also sorry to disillusion you but there is a pretty limited range of e-waste recycling facilities and most is shipped OS
Whatever you say Obama, I’d do anything for you dude….
Sarah
The Germans had product stewardship legislation back in 1990.
[Your unique Nuptials De Bogue
Our love is endless like the sky
You are the apple of my eye
I’ll never ever disagree
And love you for eternity
Let’s make it all for one and all for love,
Let the one you hold be the one you want, the one you need
I vow to construct a backyard cubby house,
and build a rumpus for my spouse
Having a family with you makes me so glad,
I know I’ll never get sad. *
Mtoto wa bogan ni bogan
(The child of a bogan is a bogan)
Each night I will snuggle you to remind you of my love
Our romance will rise up to heaven above]
http://boganweddingvows.appspot.com/vows
[I always wonder about being called Jesus, which is very popular in some countries.]
One of the funniest days I’ve ever had:-
Me and a few mates were at Rosehill Racecourse and the STC had invited (I think he was Irish) a jockey from overseas to ride at the meeting.
One of my mates thought that the other riders were going to give him a few favours in running being a guest at the meeting, so he backed him.
The name of the jockey was Jesus Goose. He drew barrier 1 in a field of 4, was caught three deep throughout, ran off on the turn, finished down the outside of the track and was beaten a head.
To this day, for the remainder of the meeting, all afternoon, nobody has ever cursed the name JC and God in vain. 😆
If you are there Anthony, hope you’re well champion 😀
Weatherwise, very windy here tonight.
Not that BOM had forecast.
You can’t always accept a given forecast.
Eh, pollsters, carey, et al?
CTar1@1889
Lets not forget the American reaction when it became apparent we would ask for some assistance from them.
We wanted –
– Heavy airlift capacity assistance.
– Jawboning – ie tell the Indons to pull their heads in
– Preferably some token American boots on the ground there.
howard was told by the yanks not to ask clinton as the answer would be no. So he didn’t push it. Didn’t ask.
The yanks however had second thoughts – saw what Australia was trying to do was correct and basically gave us what we wanted.
[
I think you are being just a touch unfair to Howard. He did well with Timor L’este.]
No he did not. He only moved after footage of an attack on a UN refuge was shown and the public outcry that followed. Before that it was the usual waffle waffle. He also advised the Yankees “No worries Maaaaate” about the election. Even though Channel 9 before then had interviews with “rebel leaders” who promised that “everything will burn”. Turns out Ch.9 got it spot on.