BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition

The lately weekly poll aggregate finds Labor continuing to rise groggily from the canvas. But has something gone awry for them in South Australia?

With fresh results added from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate moves about half a point in Labor’s favour for the third week in a row. Since the immediate wake of the leadership crisis, Labor has recovered 2.1% on the primary vote and the Coalition has lost five on the seat projection after getting to within a hair’s breadth of triple figures four weeks ago (although the Coalition primary vote is down only 0.6%). The trend is now discernible to the naked eye on the sidebar charts, although it’s far too early to interpret it as anything more than a correction.

I’ve also been able to update my state relativities with data kindly provided by ReachTEL, and the revised projection shows one state bucking the trend. Last week I noted an apparent downturn for Labor in South Australia, and observed the addition of further data could cause their position there to sink rapidly. The latest result, small of sample though it may be, has done exactly that, coming as it does on the back of four successive poor results for Labor in Nielsen’s state breakdowns. Labor’s standing in South Australia has accordingly fallen 1.0% below the national result, after being all but level in last week’s projection and 3.1% higher at the 2010 election. This is illustrated in the charts to the right, which track South Australia’s deviation from the national results over the current term for the Labor and Coalition on the primary vote and for Labor on two-party preferred. However, it should be cautioned that this wasn’t reflected in the January-March Newspoll result, which had by far the largest sample. Since the data points are weighted according to sample size, Newspoll has prevented the trendline from sinking considerably further.

Labor holds six out of 11 seats in South Australia, and while each of them looks safe enough on the Mackerras pendulum, all but one was held by the Liberals at some point during the Howard years. The three seats gained with the election of the Rudd government in 2007 all swung heavily to Labor in 2010, so that the margins surpassed what are now Labor’s two most marginal seats: Adelaide (7.5%) and its western coastal neighbour Hindmarsh (6.1%), both held by the Liberals from 1993 until 2004, when they were respectively gained for Labor by Kate Ellis and Steve Georganas. The seats gained in 2007 were Wakefield (10.5%) on Adelaide’s northern fringe and hinterland, Makin (12.0%) in its north-east, and Kingston (14.5%) in its outer south. Wakefield was created in its current form in 2004 when what had traditionally been a conservative semi-rural seat absorbed much of abolished Bonython in Adelaide’s Labor-voting outer north. David Fawcett managed a surprise win for the Liberals in 2004, and found his way back into parliament via the Senate after his defeat by Labor’s Nick Champion in 2007. Makin has gone with the government of the day since its creation in 1984, being held by Trish Draper through the Howard years and Tony Zappia since. Kingston was won by the Liberals at their two best elections in 1996 and 2004, but has otherwise been a Labor seat, the present incumbent being Amanda Rishworth.

For what it’s worth, Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reported six months ago that polling conducted for the Liberals by ReachTEL showed Labor set to lose Hindmarsh and Makin on swings of 12% and 17%. Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reported a fortnight ago that the Liberals were about to conduct polling in Wakefield after Holden cut 400 jobs at its Elizabeth plant, while Peter van Onselen in The Australian related that Labor plans to poll Hindmarsh and Adelaide were knocked on the head by the Prime Minister’s office due to fears the results would leak.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,030 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition”

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  1. They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old;
    Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
    At the going down of the sun and in the morning
    We will remember them.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Mark Kenny showing some signs of dissatisfaction with the economics of Abbott and Sloppy.
    Another reasonable article by Kenny.
    Er, don’t tie yourself in knots Prissy, whatever you do!
    Ross Gittins makes some interesting observations.
    A funny contribution from John Birmingham on the prospect of GG Rodent.–and-bring-back-dad-and-dave-20130423-2ib74.html
    Abbott will fix this. He will, in US fashion, eliminate all this regulation and enforcement.
    MUST SEE! Alan Moir brings Popeye out for a run.
    Pat Campbell gives Tom Waterhouse a well deserved serve.
    Ron Tandberg reminds us of the dupicitous Howard.

  3. ASRC ‏@ASRC1 7h

    I ask you all Anyone feel safer, prouder, better off having 1440 children locked up in immigration detention tonight?

    Thought not #auspol

  4. And from the Land of the Free –

    Some pushback against the NRA lobbyists.
    And a bit of political testing of the Repugs with this bill.
    The cartoons on guns come thick and fast.
    The Repugs certainly attract a good class of people.
    The sequester is bitibg hard. Well done, Repugs!
    Some very interesting stats here.
    $8.25/hour. That’s what the Libs and their mates would describe as “productivity”!
    This also is what the Libs and their mates call “productivity”. Unbelievable!
    The Young Turks sound off on FoxNews and its fixation with Muslims.
    Ouch! How’s this for backlash!

  5. I have just started to watch a recording of the new SBS series “Borgen”. it is set around a Danish election and guess what the hot button issue is?
    Asylum seekers, detention and working.


    As Australians, we are fortunate to have been spared the social brutality of Thatcherism. But Lady Thatcher’s symbolic power in Australia as the heroine of free market economics and liberal conservatism remains potent. Her Australian admirers regard her as a paragon for transforming society in the image of market efficiency.

    Read more:

    aust, does not need torie uk thinking
    as abbott would give us.

    what a miserable life we would have with abbott

  7. Good analysis, William. South Australia seems to be bucking the long-term trend of the southern states to be more inclined to vote Labor federally than the rest of the country.

    It’s odd when you consider how contrary to South Austrslia’s interests a Lib government would be.

    At least some of my fellow inhabitants of Australia’s other mendicant state, Tassie, have cause to dream of Lib governments at Federal and State level passing laws making it illegal to be Green and then pulping what’s left of thr old growth forests. It might be evil and stupid at every level, but it’s a sort of provides policy grounds for some Tassie folk to vote Libersl, even in spite of the other bad things the Libs would do to the economy of thr place.

    But what would the Fed Libs do for SA? Cut thrir GST share, cut the manyb other Federsl social and infrastructure programs which disproportionately favour SA. Best of all, let Barnaby and his mates suck thr Murrsy-Darling system dry before it reaches SA.

    It really defies belief why the average South Aussie would even think about voting for an Abbott government. I’d have expected that, while NSW looks sick and Tasmania has issues and will swing to the Libs (I reckon Bass is gone and Braddon is on a knife edge), South Australia would stand steadfastly alongside Victoria as Julia’s last remaining bastions.

    Tell me it ain’t so.

  8. Morning all. My only comment today is to be grateful to live in a free, peaceful and modern country, and to thank all those who have defended our way of life in the past.

  9. from the 7.30 report

    Posted Wednesday, April 24, 2013 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Wednesday, April 24, 2013 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    TONY ABBOTT: We’ve already said that there are certain commitments that this government has made that we won’t go ahead with. We won’t go ahead with the so-called Schoolkids Bonus because that’s a cash splash with borrowed money with nothing to do with education. We won’t be proceeding with the superannuation low income offset because it’s funded by the mining tax, which is raising no money. We will, by natural attrition, reduce the size of the Commonwealth public sector payroll, because that’s 20,000 more now than it was in 2007. That’s about $4 billion over the forward estimates. We won’t have $6.5 billion worth of border protection blowouts because we will change policy to stop the boats. So, I think there’s
    seems abbott has only ONE idea and ONE policy is to make aust, miserable, does this man love his country men
    that’s the question you should ask your self
    or does he just want to be PM
    taking money out or your wallet his only thought
    no modering thinking like the NBN, no that’s off the books
    what next.?? that’s the question we don’t know

    taking your school bonus your pensions, effects
    peoples spending power , also so it effects small business

    interest rates when howard was pm where very very high

    we don’t need that.

    is he so obessed with boats he want give thought to what else is happening around him
    seems at the moment that all he has on his mind
    and bugger us

  10. BK@5. Refugees seem to be a huge issue in Scandanavian countries. Notwithstanding their reputations as heartlands of leftist social democracy, I think the mass of inhabitants of these countries are deeply conservative and a bit hostile towards outsiders.

    Despite all the slurs made by thr tiresome and deluded, boat people worshipping bleeding heartd against ordinary Australisns, I do not see us as being a racist people these days. Most Australians understand that they live in a mixing pot. They are a bit uncomfortable about devout Moslems and women with head scarves. But I think that’s understandable given global events since 9/11.

    People I know who have a bit to do with running focus groups tell me that, when the subject of biat people is brought up, it is typically people who are thrmselves “ethnic” who get the most hot under the collar. They are the ones who hate the idea of “queue-jumpers” and some of them also fear that they will encounter oppressors and terrorists from their home countries who have somehow gotten themselves accepted as refugees

  11. socretas
    , yes

    but to day and every day,,,
    , we don’t want this country to change .reflect on that

    for me Anzac day has passed, I don’t need a day set aside to remember my great uncle ,his picture hangs on the wall in hall way with his family around him

    he didn’t have a family died at 20
    what for,
    tyrants and power hungry people are
    still are around in all

    we have to be for ever vigilant not just on one day.


    days like this some people in high position s seem to like
    you only have to watch the body language
    on t v

    no thanks ill just as I do a lot smile at our robert`s
    photo and wish I had known him

  12. meher

    so you believe that reach tell

    re tasmannia

    Tasmanians will do as they have always done

    i only see one seat that may go,
    and its always been lib/ labor

    that’s it history

    the northerners are the dreamers

  13. I am by no means a currency expert, but I really really fail to understand those that hate the high AUD. It is a measure of our buying power higher is good in a global economy.

    Also claims the AUD USD measure is wrong, ignoring the cross rates which are more complex particularly considering how important China is to us, but if anything the USD is overvalued by quite a lot because it is a global default currency.

    I would have thought there is quite a lot of room for the AUD – USD to move exactly the opposite direction to what many seem to hope for.

  14. I fear the ALP’s going to be left with only 10 federal seats north of Victoria … And the long term consequences of this electorally will be devastating!

  15. we want paul

    the myth is a few words by a liberal’

    then it turns in some thing else
    ‘its also called

    concern trolling

    there are heaps of way to troll you know,

    ignore it

    most people love the dollar the way it is

    it all started with some one tweeting
    the other week about the pm and the dollar
    now we know the pm or the gov,

    don’t control the setting of the dollar
    now that’s another myth

    but is the impression they want you to have.

    so ignore it or just
    say that
    the gov, don’t control the economy in that area of setting

  16. Leigh Sales should be disgusted with herself for that 7-30 performance and Mark Scott should hang his head in shame for the Lieberal hack that he is and should be hauled over the coals and sacked or made to resign for not keeping to the ABC charter. Wingnutt however has just shown Australians what a lying coward he actually is and on the eve of ANZAC DAY whereby our forefathers fought overseas for the life we Australians have come to enjoy.These soldiers who risked life and limb to protect our safety,honour,truth, egalitarianism and our way of life.

  17. spur212
    Posted Thursday, April 25, 2013 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    I fear the ALP’s going to be left with only 10 federal seats north of Victoria … And the long term consequences of this electorally will be devastating!


    In real terms

    labor is likely to be re-elected

    non gilalrd/labor supporters and coalition supporters are sensing the Hewson factor is starting to hit for the coalition

  18. Spur

    10 seats north of Victoria – that is extreme even for me.
    I guess 1 in Qld – 3 more likely
    NSW – surely more than 9. And the ACT wiil stay Labor

  19. Newsltd/Abbott coalition are now in desperate times

    What can Newsltd do, to take the heat off their man Abbott

    there is no much ,the pro coalition media has to go back to the old awu propaganda

  20. Bagdad Bob

    What are the events/policies/people that are going to gain ALP 5% over the next 4.5 months – 20 weeks – that is 0.25% per week.

    Swan has warned the budget will be tight sop even while not losing voted might stop gain for a week or two.

    Abbott has been able to stay on message for almost three years and one has to assume that he will continue to do so.

    Just accept it and hope that we can survive 6 years of Abbott and co.

  21. my say @ 16

    Why don’t you put a sock in it for a change?

    Or else go to that other site where it’s all touchy touchy, feely feely.

  22. This was no 7-30 report this was a Mark Scott walk in the park for Wingnutt and even though it was pre recorded and given he had cue cards he still had a dismal performance.After this any male who thinks Abbott is a manly man and not just another sloganeering Lieberal coward has rocks in their heads.

  23. Morning everyone. Ch9 report from ANZAC Cove doing vox pops with young Australians about their trip there.

    One says it’s important to go there to “see how our national identity was formed”.

    I’m sorry, but I don’t regard Australia’s national identity as being solely about, or even having arisen from ANZAC Day. As I remember it ANZAC Day really only rose to the mass popularity it is now during the Howard govt years.

  24. my say@13. I hear that Labor is still pretty worried about Braddon, but less so than Bass. Not too bothered about Lyons and Franklin (although the Libs seem to think they are a big show in Franklin: I think they are deluded, although perhaps they know something I don’t).

    Can they unseat Wilkie in Denison? I doubt it: these “ethical” independents like Ted Mack seem to be hard to get rid of.

  25. daretoread

    the opinion polling record

    Torbay was a shoe in –

    Hewson was a shoe in

    Beazley was a shoe in

    and what was the opinion polling success rate = 0%

  26. As a South Australian I can tell you that the mood in SA is very anti-Labor, if Labor wants to win they better try and concentrate on electorates in other states. Port Adelaide could very well be the only Labor electorate to remain. It’s hard to judge Wakefield since it changed so much since 1996. The mood is similar to what it was in 1993 partly because people feel like South Australia is getting economically left behind.

  27. Canasta76:

    As predicted, Abbott used his 730 appearance on the eve of ANZAC Day to slither away from some signature promises: PPL and the cut to company tax rate.

    Don’t be surprised if these are quietly let go from here on in.

  28. i remeber in 2010

    the liberal party internal poling in tasmania claimed liberals would win 3 seats that was 2 weeks from the election

    how accurate did those polls turn out

  29. If currently opinion polls keep going the way they are it would be a smart move on Labor’s part to pull resources out of the marginal seats and concentrate on seats at the very least above 3% margin.

  30. MB @ 22 What can Newsltd do, to take the heat off their man Abbott

    Basically what they’ve been doing up until now for any stories and analysis relating to the Federal Government, the ALP or Ms Gillard: grossly misleading and distorting headlines; twisting any story into a negative; beating up negatives and stuff ups (admittedly they’ve had help from the Government on the latter); hiding or downplaying positives; and that old standby when all else fails – making bad stuff up. On top of all of this stable of columnists who are openly campaigning for Abbott and the Coalition.

    In Sydney, the Daily Telecrap seems to set the lead for other outlets, including our venerable ABC which now seems to be too cash strapped or too lazy to do its own investigations. I expect the same happens in other markets.

    Winning the battle will require a lot more than good policies, reason or logic.

  31. Bagdad

    You are I assume aware that essential is a UNION ie Labor oriented polling company. It is NOT driven in any way by the MSN.

    Ignore all the others is you like but Essential is not beholden to the big guys

  32. i remeber in 2010

    the liberal party internal poling in tasmania claimed liberals would win 3 seats that was 2 weeks from the election

    how accurate did those polls turn out

    This is one point I completely agree with you on internal polls are rubbish. Beside these polls are rarely really “leaked” without a good reason. However if Liberals keep up the currently pace of fundraising they will have money to spend even on seats which are way out of the ball park. From what I hear it is 4 times as much as they were raising at this time during the last election.

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