Lyndhurst by-election live

Live coverage of Victoria’s Lyndhurst by-election, where anything other than a clear win for Labor’s Martin Pakula will come as a rude shock for the party.

8.10pm. All the polling booths have reported, but I gather we’ll get some postals or pre-polls before the night has done. The current Labor primary vote of 40.5% is south of home-and-hosed territory under some circumstances, but here the minor vote is divided enough between left and right candidates that he will almost certainly get over the line. His primary vote position should also improve in late counting. Nonetheless, it’s a much closer result than Pakula and Labor would have liked.

7.50pm. All but three booths now in on the primary vote and the situation is little changed, with Labor remaining stuck on 40.1%, Family First second on 16.6% and a crowded field jostling for third: Hung Vo on 10.5%, the DLP on 9.5%, the Sex Party on 9.2% and the Greens on 8.9%. The VEC is conducting a Labor-versus-Greens preference throw, which is unlikely to prove too illuminating.

7.40pm. Antony Green: “Labor needs only half of Green and Sex Party preferences to win, and that is much much more likely than the preferences of both reaching Family First. So Labor looks set to win. I would also expect Labor’s vote to increase on pre-poll and postal votes, areas where minor parties and independents traditionally poll poorly.”

7.35pm. The Greens, who don’t seem to have much luck in Victorian by-elections, are now in sixth place, behind the DLP and the Sex Party as well as Pakula, Vo and Family First.

7.30pm. The Lyndhurst booth is another very poor one for Hung Vo, who is now on 12.5% to Family First’s 16.4%. Martin Pakula’s vote is little changed.

7.20pm. Five more booths have reported on the primary vote, and Labor has struggled up to 40.1% (down 17.9% on a booth-for-booth basis) – still short of what would assure Martin Pakula of victory. However, Hung Vo’s vote turns out to be wildly variable through the electorate, and he’s now fallen behind Family First on 14.9% to 15.3%. My best guess is that Family First and other conservatives would get Pakula over 50% if a “left” candidate finishes second, and left preferences will do so otherwise.

7pm. Very strong result for independent Hung Vo at the Southvale booth, accounting for 472 votes. Vo has polled 21.6% of the vote against 35.6% for Pakula, compared with 4.7% for Vo at the 2010 election and 59.6% for Labor. If the Labor vote stays that low, Pakula could well be in trouble. The Greens are up 6.2% to 12.3%, and Family First 5.4% to 11.4%. The Sex Party, which didn’t run last time, is on 11.9%.

6pm. Polls have closed for the Lyndhurst state by-election in Victoria, wherein Labor’s Martin Pakula is expected to be confirmed in his move from the upper to lower house following the retirement of Tim Holding. There are seven other candidates, none of whom are from the Liberal Party. First results should probably be in in an hour or so.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

27 comments on “Lyndhurst by-election live”

  1. 1

    Well actually, he lost out slightly by the by-election being when he changed sides. The adoption bill currently going through parliament would have been amended to remove the $8,400 fines.

  2. Seriously puzzled as to why the Libs yet again failed to come up with a candidate here. Sure it’s likely they would have lost but there was always a chance they could win with a strong, local campaign.

  3. [GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m
    #Lyndhurst after 6 booths: ALP 40.1 FF 15.3 Hung Vo 14.9 SEX 9.2 DLP 8.1 GRN 7.8 #springst #auspol]

    Is this right – the DLP is polling higher than the GReens!!!


    Antony Green’s running comments. He has just said…

    [20:26 – The VEC have junked the Labor-Green preference count they had conducted tonight. Some time next week they will conduct a formal distribution of preferences to work out who finished second.

    20:20 – A reminder that there are about 11,000 postal and pre-polls to come tonight. That is more than 20% of the vote.

    19:59 – With all polling places having reported their results, all we wait on now is the counting of postal and pre-poll votes. Based on what happened at the Melbourne by-election, that should improve Labor’s position, especially as it was the absent votes that Labor did worst on in 2010. There will be no absent votes at this by-election.]

  5. Out of fairness to the Greens this is not an area that they normally do well so i wouldn’t expect anything different tonight.

    Good win by Marin Pakula, i have met him and he is a friendly likable person my only fault is i think he barracks for Carlton.

    Very interesting to see how the next few weeks in parliament go. Considering Denis is traveling okay i don’t think the Liberals would fear a snap poll as much as they might have a month or two ago.

    My money would be on a narrow win for the Liberals if a poll did take place.

  6. Quick question now we know that the next state election is meant to be held with new boundaries but with the VEC still considering submissions.

    If Geoff Shaw decided next week to end the Government and their is a snap poll would the VEC have to come out with new boundaries or is it held on the current boundaries.

    Geoff Shaw would prefer the current boundary than the purposed ones being put forward.

  7. Current boundaries. New boundaries don’t apply until the next general election. But if an election were called before the redistribution was complete, the election would be on the old boundaries.

  8. I really can not see any reason for Labor polling so badly beside federal issues to so many unknown candidates. It may be a good time to take a shot at some of those Victorian seats being offered by sports bet at current probabilities.

  9. BTW 9% is an amazing result for the sex party. We may actually have a shot at a Senate seat with these results.

  10. It is to be hoped that only a little bit of the ASP 9% is just a donkey vote and will be passed on the Labor. Cannot imagine much of it going to FF. Labor should get at least 5% from them assuming 3% is down the ticket donkey and 1% leaks to FF. However 7% is probably more likely.

    The Greens did NOT direct preferences, but this makes little difference for greens so Labor will pick up another 6%.

    However those on PB who think it a wise strategy to bag the Greens might want to rethink their approach as Greens actively working against them would have cost them this safe seat

  11. Not sure about that maths Victoria, but what I do know is parties yet paid on primary votes received, and by the look of things the ALP will be very poor soon

  12. 40% of the major party vote was up grabs – most from the Libs not contesting, but the Labor party shed a fair bit as well, and no party in particular reaped the bonanza – the DLP and FFP went up a bit but not much, and a bunch of people went to independents, but not so much that you’d say they were particular threats to win. The Sex Party did OK but it got the donkey. The Greens going up 3%, even in unfavourable territory is pretty weak no matter how they’ll spin it but not a disaster and I wouldn’t feel too worried about their vote in Victoria if I were them – they’re the clear favourites to elect a non-major senator this year.

  13. Th Key to understanding the result is the absence of a Lib

    This is a Lib tactic in Vic and makes any real understanding of a by=election result difficult ..and conjecture pointless

    It seems that Libs either voted for FLP/FF or informal or abstained..there was a big informal and a big abstention from voting nothing much to be shown hedre ……although the ALP vote is massively down on the last election

  14. My understanding was that no postals counted, and no new votes admitted to the count at all. The change has been produced by a check-count of Saturday’s counting. The informal vote rose from 8.8% to 9.5% and the vote tallies for all candidates fell, including Labor. It’s just that Labor’s vote fell the least, I presume due to good scrutineering.

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