With fresh results added from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate moves about half a point in Labor’s favour for the third week in a row. Since the immediate wake of the leadership crisis, Labor has recovered 2.1% on the primary vote and the Coalition has lost five on the seat projection after getting to within a hair’s breadth of triple figures four weeks ago (although the Coalition primary vote is down only 0.6%). The trend is now discernible to the naked eye on the sidebar charts, although it’s far too early to interpret it as anything more than a correction.
 |
 |
 |
I’ve also been able to update my state relativities with data kindly provided by ReachTEL, and the revised projection shows one state bucking the trend. Last week I noted an apparent downturn for Labor in South Australia, and observed the addition of further data could cause their position there to sink rapidly. The latest result, small of sample though it may be, has done exactly that, coming as it does on the back of four successive poor results for Labor in Nielsen’s state breakdowns. Labor’s standing in South Australia has accordingly fallen 1.0% below the national result, after being all but level in last week’s projection and 3.1% higher at the 2010 election. This is illustrated in the charts to the right, which track South Australia’s deviation from the national results over the current term for the Labor and Coalition on the primary vote and for Labor on two-party preferred. However, it should be cautioned that this wasn’t reflected in the January-March Newspoll result, which had by far the largest sample. Since the data points are weighted according to sample size, Newspoll has prevented the trendline from sinking considerably further.
Labor holds six out of 11 seats in South Australia, and while each of them looks safe enough on the Mackerras pendulum, all but one was held by the Liberals at some point during the Howard years. The three seats gained with the election of the Rudd government in 2007 all swung heavily to Labor in 2010, so that the margins surpassed what are now Labor’s two most marginal seats: Adelaide (7.5%) and its western coastal neighbour Hindmarsh (6.1%), both held by the Liberals from 1993 until 2004, when they were respectively gained for Labor by Kate Ellis and Steve Georganas. The seats gained in 2007 were Wakefield (10.5%) on Adelaide’s northern fringe and hinterland, Makin (12.0%) in its north-east, and Kingston (14.5%) in its outer south. Wakefield was created in its current form in 2004 when what had traditionally been a conservative semi-rural seat absorbed much of abolished Bonython in Adelaide’s Labor-voting outer north. David Fawcett managed a surprise win for the Liberals in 2004, and found his way back into parliament via the Senate after his defeat by Labor’s Nick Champion in 2007. Makin has gone with the government of the day since its creation in 1984, being held by Trish Draper through the Howard years and Tony Zappia since. Kingston was won by the Liberals at their two best elections in 1996 and 2004, but has otherwise been a Labor seat, the present incumbent being Amanda Rishworth.
For what it’s worth, Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reported six months ago that polling conducted for the Liberals by ReachTEL showed Labor set to lose Hindmarsh and Makin on swings of 12% and 17%. Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reported a fortnight ago that the Liberals were about to conduct polling in Wakefield after Holden cut 400 jobs at its Elizabeth plant, while Peter van Onselen in The Australian related that Labor plans to poll Hindmarsh and Adelaide were knocked on the head by the Prime Minister’s office due to fears the results would leak.
Oh I see, the ALP team deserve respect and so they cant be insulted, whereas the Coalition team deserve ridicule and hence it is fair game.
I like it. It has a simple elegance! 🙂
[1940
CTar1
briefly
Great Wall
You’re way to late for the name game!]
So behind the times here in WA 🙂
rummel
[my mistake]
Go to bed while you’ve only realised you’ve made one in the last 10 minutes.
rummel@1944
A tory version of ‘At Home with Julia’ directed at howard etc would have have you all having heart attacks.
Not so much in the Australian context, but this sure shows a sense of humour –
[ Ronald Reagan’s application to become a member of the American Communist Party in 1938 Hollywood was turned down because, according to a 1999 authorized biography, party bigwigs “thought he was a feather brain…a flake who couldn’t be trusted with a political opinion for more than 30 minutes.” ]
http://archives.huntingtonnews.net/columns/091002-kinchen-columnsbookreview.html
And they were right.
My theory on why there has been no prime time comedy shows going after the Labor government is because there is no audience for it. The Public have been getting all there laughs at the 6pm and 7pm news.
rummel@1942
Which is why why you supported howard being chucked out and HTV’ed Labor, including Gillard in 2010 🙂
ML
[Every now and then I wonder about hypocrisy…..]
As we saw the other day however, not always with adequate cause or the capacity to respond.
[I keep hearing that we are not allowed to make any comments about Gillard, and yet there are endless insults directed at Abbott, Howard, Hockey, Pyne, Costello and every other Coalition MP or Senator.]
You don’t hear that from me. I find the balance of commentary on Ms Gillard — which trades substantially on her sex as the glue holding together the vacuous and carping sneering to be intellectually offensive.
Howard was never in my recollection criticised on the basis of his masculinity in the mainstream media. Nor was the media focused substantially on his personal foibles or embarrassments or his dress. He was never presented in the Daily Terror as an ageing homeless man. They didn’t verbal him or talk over the top of him in interviews either.
Now anyone can fluff bowling — it happens — though as a self-professed “cricket tragic” who once said he wanted the sport on the front page, this was embarrassing — but really my point was about the improbability of Howard as a successful interlocutor in Middle East peace realised through an amusing vignette.
ML, insults are wasted on Labor MP’s. Labor politicians, who would be deeply suspicious of praise, take curses as signs of affection and blame as expressions of envy.
Mod Lib
I thought it was the other way round.
The Libs demand respect and Labor deserve abuse.
I seem to recall placards calling Julia a bitch and a witch in front of a large audience on display behind Abbott and members of his Party.
You must have been so proud!
briefly
[So behind the times here in WA]
I’ve been told it’s the combination of the sand and the wind.
😀
[Which is why why you supported howard being chucked out and HTV’ed Labor, including Gillard in 2010 ]
Yes, i switched in 07 to support Kev because of Work Choices and truth be told, i like Kev. Then along came Gillard who knifed the PM i supported, so i switch back to the Libs.
[You must have been so proud!]
I think you will recall I criticised those signs.
I guess that is the point I am making! :devil:
I think that at home with Julia was pretty much the low point of political satire against Gillard
And yes it WAS sexist. Also very unfunny
[I seem to recall placards calling Julia a bitch and a witch in front of a large audience on display behind Abbott and members of his Party.]
Would you class that as wrong now? After the support for the Thatcher signs from the left, i thought a clear consensus that bitch and witch are appropriate when you dont like the policys of said female leader.
[Fran Barlow
Posted Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 11:06 pm | PERMALINK
ML
Every now and then I wonder about hypocrisy…..
As we saw the other day however, not always with adequate cause or the capacity to respond.]
Oh really?
Haha 🙂
[Howard was never in my recollection criticised on the basis of his masculinity in the mainstream media.]
Howard was never called “little Johnny” in your recollection? Where you around in those years?
[Nor was the media focused substantially on his personal foibles or embarrassments or his dress. ]
I remember seeing endless outtakes of him stumbling on and off stages…..
[He was never presented in the Daily Terror as an ageing homeless man.]
Huh?
[They didn’t verbal him or talk over the top of him in interviews either.]
Red Kerry didn’t talk over him?
(while peering into Keating’s eyes without blinking BTW).
briefly
[Labor politicians, who would be deeply suspicious of praise, take curses as signs of affection and blame as expressions of envy.]
Right on!
Mod Lib
[I think you will recall I criticised those signs.]
Who cares?
You do not represent the Liberal Party.
The Liberals love to dish it out but can’t take when it’s given to them.
Let’s face it, Abbott is an idiot. The only that should be offended are the monkeys who he resembles.
Abbott
Fran
As I pointed out earlier today, comments about Howard’s height were deliberately implying he was a weak sort of a man ie “little Johnny” so we cannot assume that there is never any gender related abuse of guys.
And yes I used “little Johnny” and yes I fully knew I was deriding his masculinity when I used it. By contrast “Honest John” was also used ironically but this is NOT gender related.
There used to be LOTS of images of Hawke combing his hair if you recall. That was his trade mark for cartoonists and satirists.
Singo clearly says Gai told her bookmaker son about problems with his horse that even he didn’t know about, let alone the general public.
[“When Gai’s son knows last night exactly the result today, the conflict of interest becomes personal,” Singleton said.
“When her own son, who is a bookmaker, is saying she’s got problems I didn’t know about … well you have to ask the racing officials, you have to ask Gai, you have to ask Tommy.
“All I’m saying as an owner is there is too much conflict of interest.]
[1960
CTar1
briefly
So behind the times here in WA
I’ve been told it’s the combination of the sand and the wind.
:grin:]
And the sun.
Actually, in the early days of settlement, no-one could really verify what “the time” should be. They had to fire a cannon to let everyone when midday was said to have been reached. Eventually they built the Observatory and began to make accurate calculations, enabling uniform “time” to be calibrated.
rummel
I don’t know how the left treated Thatcher.
As far as we can clearly see, the Liberals have set the precedent of abuse to a PM and the office of PM.
DTT – JWH was referred to as ‘Duck’ in and around Parliament Hse.
[ Howard was never called “little Johnny” in your recollection? ]
His own party called him that as much as others and ‘the lying rodent’.
Take it up with brandis & co.
Diogs
I have made some posts on the matter a few pages back.
Waterhouse and her son could be facing very serious allegations indeed.
Oh god, not again with Gillard the victim. The “true believers” scream blue murder when Abbott doesn’t address her as PM or happens to turn his back on her while she talks. Of course they completely ignore the vile PERSONAL comments from the ALP site. Gillard, Swan and the sheltered workshop that passes as the ALP have been responsible for some of the most abhorrent and negative personal insults in the last 3 years. How the blind here cannot see that is astonishing but I guess when you are paid shills sent out like drones to do the queens bidding then all is fair game.
briefly
[They had to fire a cannon ]
It’s a wonder anyone’s left!
That wind in Perth blowing the sand off the beaches is a bugger.
I’ve eaten some of it.
Centre:
It beggars belief that you guys cannot see what is just crystal clear, clear cut, abject hypocrisy!
There are vicious comments about Rudd and Howard here, but any mention of Gillard’s mistakes are pounced on as sexist.
Then Thatcher dies and there is singing and dancing on her grave, unfortunately for some here, there was such similar phraseology:
“Ditch the witch” in Australia
versus
“Ding, dong the witch is dead” in England
The former was appalling, the latter hilarious!
No amount of your collective sophistry is going to hide the hypocrisy. It is there for all to see….
Howard is actually a little bit taller than Bob Hawke. I think he’s about 5 ft 9 from the time I almost walked into him at Dymocks.
briefly@1970
It was actually the expansion of railways in the US particularly which focused the co-ordination of time across nation(s).
It didn’t necessarily make the trains run on time mind you.
[dave
Posted Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 11:20 pm | PERMALINK
Howard was never called “little Johnny” in your recollection?
His own party called him that as much as others and ‘the lying rodent’.
Take it up with brandis & co]
So we agree, Prime Ministers ARE IN FACT insulted all the time, yeah?
Centre
Will the stewards investigate or does someone have to make a complaint? Would the police investigate?
CTar1, I’m proposing the existence of a new law of politics: the law of inverse returns – the more successful Labor become, the more they are reviled by the LNP and the greater the lies they will attract.
I want to know what were the problems with More Joyous?
If Gai has confessed that the mare was not 100% yet started in the race – she must do time!
Both face charges of conflict of interest and Tom could face charges of prior knowledge?
Let’s see if Chief Steward Murrihy has marbles or is a mouse 😉
briefly:
In that case we must be having a love-in given how unsuccessful the ALP has been recently! 🙂
Mod Lib@1980
See the highlight section above.
Mod Lib
There is no hypocrisy. Go and watch a good movie First Blood, you’d be calling Stallone a hypocrite for retaliation.
Your mob drew first blood!
You really are a wimp 😆
Ditch the witch was always going to be asid
Are you aware of a brand of hole diggers called “Ditch witch” and another called “Trench Wench.”
Just saying – I was looking at hiring a hole digger and they are the names quoted.
dave
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mason_%26_Dixon
Mechanical ducks, time and people going crazy!
Centre
[Waterhouse told stewards that although More Joyous had a slight problem with her neck after a brilliant track gallop on Thursday, she maintained the mare was fit to race.
Racing NSW chief steward Ray Murrihy was clearly unhappy that Waterhouse had not informed stewards of More Joyous’ neck problem but the trainer told Murrihy repeatedly it was not an issue.]
daretotread @ 1963
Posted Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 11:10 pm | PERMALINK
[I think that at home with Julia was pretty much the low point of political satire against Gillard
And yes it WAS sexist. Also very unfunny]
It was an absolute disgrace. Heads should have rolled and it should never have gone to air.
[Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 11:23 pm | PERMALINK
Centre:
It beggars belief that you guys cannot see what is just crystal clear, clear cut, abject hypocrisy!]
Dont worry Mod Lib. They see it, but there to Labor to admit it.
Diogs
I believe the ball is in Murrihy’s court now to take action. Singleton has already complained – publicly 🙂
Dio
What is this about “almost” running into The Rodent? You had the chance and you missed! I thought you surgeons were good on accuracy?
At least my son gave him a mouthful when Howie almost ran him over in the Prime Ministerial car.
[1976
CTar1
briefly
They had to fire a cannon
It’s a wonder anyone’s left!
That wind in Perth blowing the sand off the beaches is a bugger.
I’ve eaten some of it.]
It would take more than powder and shot to quell the sandgroper, CTar1 🙂
You’re right about the winds, though. They nearly wrecked the small group of boats that arrived in 1829.
briefly
The ‘lie’ rate index has been showing a strong surge.
rummel:
I know….I am just having a bit of fun :devil:
Norty, aint I?
Diogs
Her bookmaker son thought it was an issue 😉
Centre
Singleton has now complained to the stewards. The second hearing will be on Friday. It will all hinge on what what Singos friends say they were told by Tom Waterhouse.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/john-singleton-and-gai-waterhouse-lock-horns-after-failure-of-more-joyous-in-all-aged/story-fn67tkww-1226630657653
[rummel
Posted Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 11:09 pm | Permalink
Which is why why you supported howard being chucked out and HTV’ed Labor, including Gillard in 2010
Yes, i switched in 07 to support Kev because of Work Choices and truth be told, i like Kev. Then along came Gillard who knifed the PM i supported, so i switch back to the Libs.]
Rummel
Purely as a matter of interest (to me anyway) would you have voted for Kev if he had been restored to the leadership?
Puffy
I was innocently walking into a bookstore and there he was, about 1 metre from me. I remember i was wearing a political Tshirt. I think it was a Rage Against the Machine one.