UPDATE (22/4/13): The weekly Essential Research records no change on last week on voting intention, with the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred from primary vote of 34% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. The poll also finds 51% thinking Australia made the wrong decision going to war against Iraq against 23% for the right decision; support for same sex marriage at 54% and opposition at 33%; and 68% supporting the Gonski report recommendations against 13% opposed, but 43% opposed to the government’s specific plan against 40% in support.
UPDATE 2 (22/4/13): The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 44% (their weakest result since this series began eight weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10.5%. That pans out to 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 55.5-44.5), which Morgan prefers, and 54-46 on previous election preferences (down from 56-44), which I and every other pollster prefer. The sample this time around was 3270.
The eastern Perth seat of Hasluck has changed hands at all three elections since its creation as Western Australia’s fifteenth seat at the 2001 election, from territory that had previously been in Perth, Tangney and Swan. Labor has outperformed the state swing in Hasluck at each election, but has twice been denied by the force of the statewide tide to the Coalition. The electorate consists of three discrete population areas, with those in the north and south favouring Labor and the one in the centre leaning to the Liberals. The northern area includes Midland, home to a high proportion of seniors, rent payers and low-income earners, and the more Liberal-friendly Guildford, which is demographically unremarkable on all measures. The central area includes middle-income suburbs around Kalamunda in the Darling Scarp, home to a large number of English migrants, as well as mortgage-sensitive Forrestfield and Maida Vale nearer the city. In the south are the suburbs of Gosnells, Thornlie and Maddington, which are marked by lower levels of income and home ownership.
Hasluck is held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt, whose win in 2010 made him the first ever self-identifying indigenous member of the House of Representatives. Wyatt was formerly a director of the Office of Aboriginal Health director and is the uncle of Ben Wyatt, an emerging figure in the state Labor Party. His win came at the expense of Labor’s Sharryn Jackson, who had won the seat in 2001, lost it in 2004 and recovered it again in 2007. Jackson became the seat’s inaugural member after defending a notional margin of 2.6% against a Liberal swing of 0.6%, before a further swing of 3.6% evicted her as Perth failed to take a shine to Mark Latham in 2004. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Stuart Henry, former executive director of the Western Australian Master Plumbers Association. Jackson served as Labor’s state president in the interim, and was reportedly urged by the LHMWU to seize the opportunity of Kim Beazley’s vacancy in Brand at the 2007 election. She instead declared herself set on recovering Hasluck, and was duly successful on the back of a 3.1% swing driven by a recovery of support for Labor in the electorate’s south following a slump in 2004. Redistribution cut Jackson’s 1.3% margin to 0.9% going into the 2010 election, and she was then seen off by an evenly distributed 1.4% swing in 2010
Labor’s new candidate for Hasluck is Adrian Evans, deputy state secretary of the Maritime Union of Australia. Evans’ preselection is the product of an increasing assertiveness within the state ALP on the part of the MUA, which according to one report accounts for a quarter of the state branch’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled its numbers from 150 to 850. The union first sought to flex its muscles when Evans ran for preselection for the state seat of Fremantle, which prior to the 2009 by-election defeat was held by LHMWU figurehead Jim McGinty. The LHMWU faction was able to secure preselection for its favoured candidate, UnionsWA secretary Simone McGurk, but it took a deal with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association to shore up her position in the face of the challenge from Evans. The quid pro quo included support from United Voice (as the LHMWU had become known) for the Senate ambitions of SDA state president Joe Bullock, who has duly gained top position on the Senate ticket at the expense of incumbent Louise Pratt. This has in turn caused friction between United Voice and Pratt’s AMWU sub-faction of the Left, with which the MUA is aligned.
Notch another one up for the NRA.
[POLICE say five people are dead in a shooting at an apartment complex south of Seattle, including a suspect who was shot by officers responding to the chaotic scene. ]
Oh goodness alias … Ms Plibersek seems entirely competent and personable and articulate as well, but give it a rest.
The ALP has made its call. It will either win or lose with Gillard at the helm on September 14. That is as it should be.
Were Ms Plibersek put in charge, it would only prejudice the result because it would look like panic.
alias
Make Tanya PM a la Kristina Keneally? Bit late I would suggest.
In the first five minutes Plibersek has proved my point. Articulate, persuasive, convincing, authentic, natural – and doesn’t grate on the ear like fingernails down a chalkboard.
Fran – you inadvertently make the point for me: The point is no one is even looking now. The game’s over. They’ve already decided, as poll after poll demonstrates. Changing leader would actually make them look again – and they would like what they see.
liyana @1745/17476
This explains it reasonably well
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2013/02/15/fact-checking-the-tax-free-threshold/
The triple tax free threshold the ALP is crowing about is really quite a bit of smoke and mirrors. There something called the Low Income Tax Offset which is pre-existing so the benefit (marginal) is for people earning between 16,000 to 20,000 (not a tripling). Plus the effective tax rates have actually increased to counteract the changes. The main issue is that people up to $18K don’t need to lodge a tax return but overall tax benefit is marginal.
Fran, I agree. Gillard is the best person to lead the ALP to the election.
Anyone else would be cheating the Australian people of a humiliating drubbing the ALP and Gillard so desperately deserves.
Anything less and we’d feel cheated.
interested that the herald sun had a Families worse off headline on page 2, with a negative story about the opposition- ie. the governments claims about it
Shame that a huge photo of the PM was under the headline, implying that it was families worse off under her governement, so they great unwashed that wouldnt read the article got the wrong impression
The government took my advice to increase the tax free threshold and the humanitarian intake to about $20k so they should also take my further advice on tax: we should have a GMT (Guaranteed Minimum Tax) where the government sets a minimum tax rate based on Gross income.
No matter how many deductions you have you cant go below that.
rummel@1716
I’m not really sure how much blame the current Labor/Green coalition really deserves for that, as opposed to the tail end of the previous Labor majority government. Tasmania’s economy has always been erratic and governments of any stripe have been prone to happen to be in power when it goes pearshape. The Gray majority gung-ho pro-development Liberal government was not immune; it was just better at hiding it than most.
I ought to do some stats sometime on when the first correct reports of Newspoll have emerged in each fortnight it comes out. Usually these days I expect more 10:30-11 than earlier.
CommSec quarterly State of the States economic performance report:
Liberal states/territories all doing well:
WA
NSW
QLD
NT
ALP states/territories 2/3 doing badly:
SA
TAS
You used to be able to set your watch for 10.09pm to 10.12pm.
Now it is later….slackers.
Thank you for the link Morpheus. It was an interesting read. However, I think it seems clear that many people on low incomes will be worse off if the policy is reversed. despite the increased tax rate for those earning over 18000. I guess it will depend on what people earn..
There’s also that pesky no budget policy issue too. Anyway, I appreciate the reply…
..
oops….VIC should also be in the Liberal states/territories doing well category!
http://www.investing.commsec.com.au/stateofstates
Tanya in top form tonight.
Genuine, thorouhgly on top of the brief, sympathetic, incisive and not taking any nonsense.
Dutton – shallow, ineffective, misrepresenting the facts, unimpressive.
In my experience the most common situation is that there is no knowledge of whether the patient wants to donate their organs, and so they ask the family who is in shock and consequently the request to donate organs is denied.
I think a patient should decide whether they want to donate organs and state that they withdraw their families right to overrule that decision.
I think History shows:
Newspoll released early on Sunday Night = Poll Bad for Labor
Newspoll delayed until Monday Night = Poll Bad for Labor
From this trend I think we can agree tonight’s poll will be bad for Labor.
I am not sure I would call you a swinging voter BK
Sean 🙂
Mod Lib
Correct call.
Doesn’t change the facts though.
Looks like Gillard’s community cabinet has gone well. Certainly shaken the Lib bots into action on PB.
Great question from that medical student.
We must be training them well! :devil:
Just Me:
You do get it that there is nothing better for the LNP than for Gillard to survive to the election, don’t you?
Tanya is leaving Peter hog-tied.
[1771
Just Me
Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 10:14 pm | PERMALINK
Looks like Gillard’s community cabinet has gone well. Certainly shaken the Lib bots into action on PB.]
Oh, I don’t know… Everything the government says or does needs to be taken with 144 days of salt, let alone asking where the money is coming from for all there gold plated policies.
FWIW I have found this QandA to be particularly good.
Dutton is such a lightweight.
[Dutton is such a lightweight.]
If Dutton becomes health minister, everything at a cheaper price (his own words).
My advice; if you can’t afford private health insurance… GET FIT!
Dutton trying to answer the NBN question was brilliant.
Re Greece and the onrush of fascism from Fran B
____________________
Thanks…that terriblr article made me shudder for a country I have twice visited and loved
It reads like Germany in 1932…and who is to blame…the hard minded Eurocrats.the Greek rich and their politicians s///but what a nightmare is unfoldingn now for many ordinary Greeks
Now don’t get me wrong just me… I think Labor do a great job as opposition, just look at JWH term.
[My advice;
if you can’t afford private health insurance…GET FIT!]Do the Liberal Bludgers here have private health insurance?
I do
Plibeseck has it all…but I doubt that some voters would want another womnan no matter how good
pity about that !
[deblonay
Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 10:28 pm | PERMALINK
Re Greece and the onrush of fascism from Fran B
____________________
Thanks…that terriblr article made me shudder for a country I have twice visited and loved
It reads like Germany in 1932…and who is to blame…the hard minded Eurocrats.the Greek rich and their politicians s///but what a nightmare is unfoldingn now for many ordinary Greeks]
Number or link please.
[1783
Centre
Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 10:29 pm | PERMALINK
Do the Liberal Bludgers here have private health insurance?]
Yes
[ALP states/territories 2/3 doing badly:
SA]
Should’ve seen how bad a condition the state was the last time Libs were in charge. The government is still cleaning up their mess.
I have private health cover. Have for a very long time.
[Do the Liberal Bludgers here have private health insurance?]
Judging by the rate some of them post on here, I’d be surprised if they even have jobs.
1783
Centre
Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 10:29 pm | PERMALINK
Do the Liberal Bludgers here have private health insurance?
Definitely
HEY :devil:
I think most Labor (and Lib) politicians have private health insurance.
Carey
[Should’ve seen how bad a condition the state was the last time Libs were in charge. The government is still cleaning up their mess.]
To be fair, the Libs were cleaning up an even bigger mess left by Bannon and the State Bank.
The increase in the tax free threshold was primarily a reform of the tax system to reduce effective marginal taxation rates for low income earners.
The government just didn’t explain it and covered it all in terms of a modest tax cut for low income earners that was almost incidental to the important part of the reform.
Still, it was a good and important reform courtesy of the ALP.
I wish people would stop calling it ‘private’
It’s mosty susidised so it’s ‘semi-private’
All you self reliant upstanding libs would like to believe you don’t have your hand out…
[To be fair, the Libs were cleaning up an even bigger mess left by Bannon and the State Bank.]
Definitely. Unlike some on here, I can concede both sides can cause economic problems.
However, the state was actually a huge disaster in the late 90s, especially under Olsen – who just sold things and swept stuff under the rug.
I see it has already been covered but I was watching young Tanya wondering why she wasn’t made PM when the union leaders started sulking because Kev didn’t stroke their egos often enough.
[The increase in the tax free threshold was primarily a reform of the tax system to reduce effective marginal taxation rates for low income ear]
It also reduced the number of tax payers by millions. I’m sure the ATO is grateful as well.
Dio:
I would think 90%+ of all federal politicians would have private health insurance.
They should if they don’t, and they should use it to take pressure off the public system which has to look after those who don’t have a choice to have private health insurance.