Seat of the week: Hasluck

Held for the Liberals by the first ever indigenous member of the House of Representatives, this ultra-marginal eastern Perth seat has changed hands at every election since its creation in 2001. Labor desperately needs for it to do so again on September 14.

UPDATE (22/4/13): The weekly Essential Research records no change on last week on voting intention, with the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred from primary vote of 34% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. The poll also finds 51% thinking Australia made the wrong decision going to war against Iraq against 23% for the right decision; support for same sex marriage at 54% and opposition at 33%; and 68% supporting the Gonski report recommendations against 13% opposed, but 43% opposed to the government’s specific plan against 40% in support.

UPDATE 2 (22/4/13): The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 44% (their weakest result since this series began eight weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10.5%. That pans out to 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 55.5-44.5), which Morgan prefers, and 54-46 on previous election preferences (down from 56-44), which I and every other pollster prefer. The sample this time around was 3270.

The eastern Perth seat of Hasluck has changed hands at all three elections since its creation as Western Australia’s fifteenth seat at the 2001 election, from territory that had previously been in Perth, Tangney and Swan. Labor has outperformed the state swing in Hasluck at each election, but has twice been denied by the force of the statewide tide to the Coalition. The electorate consists of three discrete population areas, with those in the north and south favouring Labor and the one in the centre leaning to the Liberals. The northern area includes Midland, home to a high proportion of seniors, rent payers and low-income earners, and the more Liberal-friendly Guildford, which is demographically unremarkable on all measures. The central area includes middle-income suburbs around Kalamunda in the Darling Scarp, home to a large number of English migrants, as well as mortgage-sensitive Forrestfield and Maida Vale nearer the city. In the south are the suburbs of Gosnells, Thornlie and Maddington, which are marked by lower levels of income and home ownership.

Hasluck is held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt, whose win in 2010 made him the first ever self-identifying indigenous member of the House of Representatives. Wyatt was formerly a director of the Office of Aboriginal Health director and is the uncle of Ben Wyatt, an emerging figure in the state Labor Party. His win came at the expense of Labor’s Sharryn Jackson, who had won the seat in 2001, lost it in 2004 and recovered it again in 2007. Jackson became the seat’s inaugural member after defending a notional margin of 2.6% against a Liberal swing of 0.6%, before a further swing of 3.6% evicted her as Perth failed to take a shine to Mark Latham in 2004. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Stuart Henry, former executive director of the Western Australian Master Plumbers Association. Jackson served as Labor’s state president in the interim, and was reportedly urged by the LHMWU to seize the opportunity of Kim Beazley’s vacancy in Brand at the 2007 election. She instead declared herself set on recovering Hasluck, and was duly successful on the back of a 3.1% swing driven by a recovery of support for Labor in the electorate’s south following a slump in 2004. Redistribution cut Jackson’s 1.3% margin to 0.9% going into the 2010 election, and she was then seen off by an evenly distributed 1.4% swing in 2010

Labor’s new candidate for Hasluck is Adrian Evans, deputy state secretary of the Maritime Union of Australia. Evans’ preselection is the product of an increasing assertiveness within the state ALP on the part of the MUA, which according to one report accounts for a quarter of the state branch’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled its numbers from 150 to 850. The union first sought to flex its muscles when Evans ran for preselection for the state seat of Fremantle, which prior to the 2009 by-election defeat was held by LHMWU figurehead Jim McGinty. The LHMWU faction was able to secure preselection for its favoured candidate, UnionsWA secretary Simone McGurk, but it took a deal with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association to shore up her position in the face of the challenge from Evans. The quid pro quo included support from United Voice (as the LHMWU had become known) for the Senate ambitions of SDA state president Joe Bullock, who has duly gained top position on the Senate ticket at the expense of incumbent Louise Pratt. This has in turn caused friction between United Voice and Pratt’s AMWU sub-faction of the Left, with which the MUA is aligned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,831 comments on “Seat of the week: Hasluck”

Comments Page 1 of 37
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  2. [Turnbull also said that 6 Mbps is fast enough for residential customers and that only businesses will need speeds of 1Gbps.

    6 Mbps is slower than what I get now on ADSL, is that what the libs are now promising,slower speeds unless you are a business.

    So if I register a nominal business at my home address will that make me eligible?]

    It may make you eligible to claim the $5,000 connection fee as a tax deduction.

    One flaw in Malcolms argument that 6 Mbps is sufficient for householders whilst businesses need 1 Gbps is that businesses may build and direct new u beaut marketing and advertising that customers may not be able to access because of Malcolms restrictions.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    NOW it’s starting to come out. If this is true it’s a bombshell and explains why the authorities acted when they did.
    http://www.smh.com.au/afl/afl-news/plots-bets-threats-and-dead-pets-afl-underbelly-exposed-20130419-2i632.html
    Mike Carlton rarely disappoints with his weekend column.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/staring-at-the-abyss-thank-god-for-alan-20130419-2i5ae.html
    Has Apple, with its closed architecture and rapacious, protected pricing, killed the goose that laid the golden egg?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/crunch-time-as-investors-punish-apple-20130419-2i5y3.html
    I thought Abbott said that the matter had been dealt with well before this happened. Has he been demoted tot he position of style coach to Sophie Mirabella?
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-staffer-demoted-after-incident-at-sydney-party-20130419-2i46k.html
    Rob Oakeshott is going to have a lot of fun with this committee by shining a light onto fraudband.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/nbn-co-asked-to-turn-sights-to-coalitions-policy-20130419-2i4c5.html
    A thoughtful article by Waleed Aly on terrorism.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/bomb-response-refreshingly-honest-20130418-2i2tn.html
    I could not agree more!
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/australias-drug-regulator-slammed-with-calls-for-harsher-penalties-for-misleading-pharmaceutical-products/story-e6frea6u-1226624697451
    Alan Moir shows the influence of the NRA.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Pope’s take on yesterday’s COAG and Gonski.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg on the effects of the retirement of Black Caviar.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  5. And from the Land of the Free –

    Here you go, Tone!
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/04/19/in-other-news-imf-says-europe-austerity-strategy-is-dragging-down-global-growth/
    Some great cartoons on the abysmal and irresponsible performance of parts of the media on the Boston bombing.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/04/19/cartoons-of-the-day-boston-marathon-bombing-media-fail/
    Well done NRA. You should be proud of yourselves.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/04/18/video-how-the-gun-lobby-has-already-blocked-bostons-bombing-investigators/
    The regulation of workplace safety was gutted by the Idiot Bush.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/04/19/1203217/-Texas-fertilizer-plant-was-storing-highly-explosive-ammonium-nitrate
    A state rep from Arakansas shows how sick they are.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/04/19/1203272/-If-Boston-had-more-assault-rifles-something-something-something
    Mike Papantonio posits that Repugs suffer from a shared psychotic disorder.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017113103
    And in this Papantonio suggests that Americans are too uninformed for democracy.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017113073

  9. Psephos (last topic):

    [Who knew the Boston Police Department had tanks?]

    I can’t say that I knew Boston had them, but at least since the 1980s, they have been a feature of US police departments (mainly to carry out drug raids) on houses operated by street gangs. There’s a humourous reference to them in one of the Naked Gun movies.

  11. Laurie Oakes reflects on the throat cutting incident. Sees is at as early outbreak of hubris

    [WE’VE been given an insight into the mood circulating at the heart of Tony Abbott’s private office. And it’s not pretty.

    There is now a perception that while outside it’s all benign looks and ties in pastel shades; inside it’s cockiness and hit-lists.

    The public discipline of the Opposition Leader and his office has been extraordinary, but when it breaks down we get a stark display of what is actually going on.

    Even if the Opposition Leader’s chief policy adviser Mark Roberts did not threaten a prominent indigenous Australian with a metaphorical throat cutting after a Coalition election victory, Mr Roberts did anticipate some form of retribution.

    It was possibly at worst a throw-away line and Mr Abbott has classified the blow-up at an exclusive Qantas function in Sydney as uncharacteristic of his adviser.

    However, the office of an Opposition Leader approaching an election moves and thinks like a military unit. The mood and tone of that unit are set by its senior members, in this case Mr Roberts.

    And if he has given us a peek at one aspect of his state of mind – issuing post-election threats – we can reasonably expect that others are following a similar course. Perhaps the leader himself.

    Tony Abbott says the matter has been settled by a round of apologies and an in-house investigation, but the ending is not as neat as the Opposition Leader wants.

    Clearly he would prefer it to disappear and his insistence that there was no more to say reeked of desperation. With good reason.

    What had been a relatively minor incident established that at least one of Mr Abbott’s closest advisers believes the Coalition has already earned a victory, five months before the election, and is planning the cleanout of enemies under a Coalition government.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/you-havent-won-yet-team-tony/story-fnh4jt60-1226624295310

  14. [Laurie Oakes reflects on the throat cutting incident. Sees is at as early outbreak of hubris]

    Whoops! it is actually Malcolm Farr with the observation on Abbott’s office, not the Sphere of Influence.

    The sub story which the OldMedia is silent on is that Roberts offered PvO some inside info on Abbott’s policies. being put “on the drip” as they say.

    So in effect bribing a journalist to cover up an incident through inducements.

    The cozy arrangements between Abbott’s office and NewsLtd – the heads of agreement – is supplemented by tactical arrangements with opinion and thought leaders.

  18. Morning all.

    I said a couple of weeks ago that if anything, hubris would be the coalition’s undoing.

    Let there be more of it, please.

  21. CTar1

    yes, I was working (teaching being one of the few jobs where you can’t take a call while you are!)

    fess

    I would love to. I adore campaigning. BUT – and it’s a fairly definitive ‘but’ at present – I am really not well enough.

    I’ve been running around the last few weeks contacting possible candidates…quite a few people interested but (for a range of reasons) haven’t been able to commit.

  22. zoomster:

    Fair enough. I recall now you mentioned a couple of months ago that you were experiencing health issues which would mean you couldn’t run this year.

  24. Re Staffergate: Mark Roberts’ behaviour was terrible, but it hardly amounts to a scandal. We have seen comparable issues with Rudd’s staffers (behaviour during the Sorry day events) and Gillard’s (the Australia Day nonsense). Interestingly, indigenous issues were a common thread in all of these incidents!

    Anyway, the Roberts issue is only interesting as a symptom of something: possibly a sense of the impending loosening of Peta’s iron rule.

    BTW, being an intrinsically lazy person, I’m excited to hear that the job of being Abbott’s policy director has become vacant. Must be an easy gig: maybe I should send Tony my cv!!

  26. [An accused Egyptian terrorist, a suspected Sri Lankan murderer and an Iranian wanted for drug trafficking have all arrived in Australia recently on asylum seeker boats.

    The Weekend West can reveal the Egyptian man, in an Eastern States detention centre, is the subject of a high-level Interpol “red notice” for terrorism activities.

    Australian Federal Police have alerted the Immigration Department about the men, who probably passed through Christmas or Cocos islands.

    The Sri Lankan man is accused of killing his girlfriend before fleeing to Australia on an asylum boat.

    The AFP has also warned the Immigration Department that a new arrival from Iran is an accused drug trafficker wanted by authorities in Tehran.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/16811290/alert-on-criminal-boat-people/

    No doubt we will hear more about this over the coming days as the Liberals seek to contain their emerging hubris by moving onto something else.

  28. [What had been a relatively minor incident established that at least one of Mr Abbott’s closest advisers believes the Coalition has already earned a victory, five months before the election, and is planning the cleanout of enemies under a Coalition government.]

    What a pity the same thing didn’t happen after Labor won in 2007. Istead we saw Rudd handing out plum jobs to people like Costello, who now spends his time kicking shit out of the government at every opportunity.

    Also that high profile woman from the public service (can’t think of her name) who played a key role in Howard’s misleading workchoices ads – she should have been for the high jump but as far as I am aware got off scott free.

  31. They located him using thermal imaging from a chopper – still trying to work out how to capture him – concerned about booby traps etc.

  32. Meher Baby…”maybe I should send Tony my cv!!”

    Now Meher…you know Tony’s not a “word” person….better to just send him that personal vid’ of yours ; “suck-starting” a Harley davidson!

  35. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/tony-abbotts-message-clean-up-your-acts-or-do-without-dole/story-e6freuy9-1226589493861

    and am thinking national service,

    lib followers love national service as long it s not them

    also would they send people out of work to the salt mines

    u know leave mum and the kids at home on their own.

    libs also love to aspire to a few homes , and rest of may be looking in garbage bins,

    who knows what there financial policies would be

    its now a a a rating,

    would you be that stupid to throw that away

    google to find out if people can actually stay on new start
    with out reporting to centre link

    I don’t think that is so,

    you should always read what abbott says then google to see for your self

  36. look I don’t give a fig what the americans do and don’t do

    all I know is that if we get a change of gov

    we may then have to worry about
    things that don’t happen here
    now

  39. Darn @ 28 – yes, Kevin Rudd seemed to have a strategy of not ‘frightening the horses’ in the leadup to the 2007 election and afterwards, once he attained power. Many swa him as ‘Howard Lite’. After the 2010 election, the hung parliament made any further winding back of John Howard’s legacy difficult. Tony Abbott will show no such caution when he becomes PM.

  40. Mb @24

    Getting pissed and then mixing it with business was the problem.

    If someone wants to get pissed that’s fine but don’t then try and mix it with work.

  42. Don’t know why you are suprised at Mick77’s innanities!….He is consistent…wanker!…Have any of you read him delivering legitimate or serious conservative aspirations for either himself or the nation besides ; “bust their arse!..Bust their arse!”
    I remember such a stooge at a local meeting getting a moment on stage with the mic’ and rabbitting on till someone called out “For christ’s sake get him off!…He’s a wanker!”….
    Mick77 is consistent on this point.

  46. No, it isn’t ideal.

    Parliament is not normal working hours.

    You know that.

    Plenty of Pollies have got pissed at the Bar, in the Dining room or a function in the past.

    Bartlett.

    Many more will do it in the future.

  49. There is an article in the SMH that Craig Thomson expects to make $95,000 by standing at the next election. Electoral funding gives approximately $2.50 a vote provided a candidate reaches 4%.
    Thomson expects to get 38,000 votes. The same as at the last election. I guess he thinks that disendorsement and the serious allegation that he used the corporate card on whores will have no effect on his obvious electoral popularity.

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