Seat of the week: Hasluck

Held for the Liberals by the first ever indigenous member of the House of Representatives, this ultra-marginal eastern Perth seat has changed hands at every election since its creation in 2001. Labor desperately needs for it to do so again on September 14.

UPDATE (22/4/13): The weekly Essential Research records no change on last week on voting intention, with the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred from primary vote of 34% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. The poll also finds 51% thinking Australia made the wrong decision going to war against Iraq against 23% for the right decision; support for same sex marriage at 54% and opposition at 33%; and 68% supporting the Gonski report recommendations against 13% opposed, but 43% opposed to the government’s specific plan against 40% in support.

UPDATE 2 (22/4/13): The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 44% (their weakest result since this series began eight weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10.5%. That pans out to 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 55.5-44.5), which Morgan prefers, and 54-46 on previous election preferences (down from 56-44), which I and every other pollster prefer. The sample this time around was 3270.

The eastern Perth seat of Hasluck has changed hands at all three elections since its creation as Western Australia’s fifteenth seat at the 2001 election, from territory that had previously been in Perth, Tangney and Swan. Labor has outperformed the state swing in Hasluck at each election, but has twice been denied by the force of the statewide tide to the Coalition. The electorate consists of three discrete population areas, with those in the north and south favouring Labor and the one in the centre leaning to the Liberals. The northern area includes Midland, home to a high proportion of seniors, rent payers and low-income earners, and the more Liberal-friendly Guildford, which is demographically unremarkable on all measures. The central area includes middle-income suburbs around Kalamunda in the Darling Scarp, home to a large number of English migrants, as well as mortgage-sensitive Forrestfield and Maida Vale nearer the city. In the south are the suburbs of Gosnells, Thornlie and Maddington, which are marked by lower levels of income and home ownership.

Hasluck is held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt, whose win in 2010 made him the first ever self-identifying indigenous member of the House of Representatives. Wyatt was formerly a director of the Office of Aboriginal Health director and is the uncle of Ben Wyatt, an emerging figure in the state Labor Party. His win came at the expense of Labor’s Sharryn Jackson, who had won the seat in 2001, lost it in 2004 and recovered it again in 2007. Jackson became the seat’s inaugural member after defending a notional margin of 2.6% against a Liberal swing of 0.6%, before a further swing of 3.6% evicted her as Perth failed to take a shine to Mark Latham in 2004. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Stuart Henry, former executive director of the Western Australian Master Plumbers Association. Jackson served as Labor’s state president in the interim, and was reportedly urged by the LHMWU to seize the opportunity of Kim Beazley’s vacancy in Brand at the 2007 election. She instead declared herself set on recovering Hasluck, and was duly successful on the back of a 3.1% swing driven by a recovery of support for Labor in the electorate’s south following a slump in 2004. Redistribution cut Jackson’s 1.3% margin to 0.9% going into the 2010 election, and she was then seen off by an evenly distributed 1.4% swing in 2010

Labor’s new candidate for Hasluck is Adrian Evans, deputy state secretary of the Maritime Union of Australia. Evans’ preselection is the product of an increasing assertiveness within the state ALP on the part of the MUA, which according to one report accounts for a quarter of the state branch’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled its numbers from 150 to 850. The union first sought to flex its muscles when Evans ran for preselection for the state seat of Fremantle, which prior to the 2009 by-election defeat was held by LHMWU figurehead Jim McGinty. The LHMWU faction was able to secure preselection for its favoured candidate, UnionsWA secretary Simone McGurk, but it took a deal with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association to shore up her position in the face of the challenge from Evans. The quid pro quo included support from United Voice (as the LHMWU had become known) for the Senate ambitions of SDA state president Joe Bullock, who has duly gained top position on the Senate ticket at the expense of incumbent Louise Pratt. This has in turn caused friction between United Voice and Pratt’s AMWU sub-faction of the Left, with which the MUA is aligned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,831 comments on “Seat of the week: Hasluck”

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  2. Gauss and Rummel,

    Labor promised at the 2010 election to deliver a 2013 surplus and constant promises after, here’s some quotes from Juliar:

    August 2010:
    JULIA GILLARD: Well the better economic plan for the future is about bringing the budget to surplus in 2013. We’ll do that…. I’m going to get the budget to surplus…. I’ll get the budget back to surplus in 2013.

    August 2010:
    JOURNALIST: If you don’t make a, get the Budget back in to surplus in 2012-2013, this is a question to both of you, the cameras are on – will you resign?

    PM: (laughs) The Budget is coming back to surplus, no ifs no buts it will happen.

    2010 Election Debate:
    Moderator David Speers: I think, Prime Minister, that Peter is seeking some sort of guarantee if you don’t get the budget back into surplus in three years, what happens? Do you sack the Treasurer, do you take personal responsibility?

    Julia Gillard: It’s happening, David. Failure is not an option.

    Speers: If it doesn’t? If it doesn’t?

    Gillard: Well, failure is not an option here and we won’t fail.

    August 2010:
    That Mr Abbott couldn’t tell you when the Budget would come back to surplus. Well I can: the Budget will be back in surplus in 20113 if I’m re-elected, if my Government is re-elected on Saturday.

    August 2011:
    …the Budget’s coming back to surplus. There’s no credible analysis on our economic plan that it won’t come back to surplus.

    July 2011:
    PM: The budget will be back in surplus in 2013 as promised

    May 2012, Gillard Declaring Budget Surplus Much Success!!!:
    JULIA GILLARD, PRIME MINISTER: What we’ve done instead is swum strongly against the tide and delivered a budget surplus.

    And on and on and on and on it goes…

  3. Have not posted much about federal polling on my site in last few weeks as it really hasn’t been that interesting. Might soon have another look at the relationship between Abbott’s personal ratings and the Coalition 2PP. My feeling is it may have normalised (ie positive rather than inverse correlation) in the 6-ish months since I last considered it.

    Tassie stuff:

    There is some aggro going on between the Liberals and the “independent liberal” candidate for Nelson, Hans Willink, an ex-Lib who is pitching himself as a small-l liberal/libertarian. The party is trying to argue that electoral law prevents him from using “liberal” in his sign without their permission as it is misleading. I may soon argue that not only are the Liberal Party wrong about this but they are also hypocritical since their own use of the term “Liberal Party” misleads voters into believing they are voting for a liberal party when it is actually not one.

    Also aggro going on between Labor and Wilkie with Labor trying to portray Wilkie as having done a deal with the Libs or likely to do so, apparently just on the basis of the Libs still not having announced a preselection for Denison and apparently running dead in the seat. Desperate stuff from Labor IMO – they have a much better candidate but must think they’re not doing well enough.

    Meanwhile I’ve just (finally) posted my impression of the debate between the other three LegCo candidates – I score it as pretty even given the circumstances (ie that nearly all the questions were attacking the incumbent.)

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/impressions-of-nelson-legco-debate.html

    And I’ve updated my article about the religious right down here and their “Salamanca Declaration” with a long waffly philosophical response to a Christian who wrote in (and a link to his response):

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/liberty-abortion-and-salamanca.html

  4. [Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 8:18 pm | PERMALINK
    Gauss and Rummel,

    Labor promised at the 2010 election to deliver a 2013 surplus and constant promises after, here’s some quotes from Juliar:]

    Great list Sean, but there will be a thousand excuses for this Labor brilliance…

  8. Listening to Tony Abbott being “interviewed” by Andrew Bolt on 2GB. One of these men is an articulate, albeit racist conservative; the other is a bumbling slogan bogan.

  9. Sean

    Gillard & Swan will feature in a lot of the LNP adds during the election; not just the infamous “There will be no carbon tax ———” No need for actors. Comedy gold.

  10. BTW When I took my grandsons to the Coffs Harbour airport today saw the NBN people working in Sawtell gees I am envious, as were my grandsons who come from Sydney

  11. Sheesh. Tony Abbott is seriously inarticulate.

    having a trainwreck moment with Bolt and Price. Can’t keep this up for another 5 months.

  12. sprocket_

    [One of these men is an articulate, albeit racist conservative; the other is a bumbling slogan bogan]
    Sacre Beaujolais !! You can spot the difference between them.

  13. Everyone is killing themselves with laughter re slogans to accompany the twic photo of Rupe and Gina sent by the fake Joe Hockey tweeter, see examples in my earlier comment talk about hilarious

  14. Mari

    The early model plastic biro with the removable top is ideal. Take the top off, insert open end into the valve.

  16. Have we talked Tasmania tonight? Pahaps a Abbott government can organise a armed intervention in Tasmania to remove the Labor/green government that has killed Tasmania’s economy. If not for GST aid, they would be a basket case worthy of kicking out of the union. Now there is a idear….. or sell it to china!

    ”TASMANIA will slide into an economic abyss with entrenched long-term problems unless there is a joint effort to stop the plunge from the state and federal governments, the latest Commsec report says.”

  17. [crikey whitey
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 8:31 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari

    The early model plastic biro with the removable top is ideal. Take the top off, insert open end into the valve.]

    😀

  18. shellbell@1705

    Kevin

    What is likely to be the course of the laws reforming abortion laws in the Tasmanian Upper House?

    Have to say I really don’t know and I’m a bit nervous about it as I thought the reform as passed was overall good. One unknown is that a lot of major votes have been pretty finely balanced between the conservatives and the moderates/progressives. This one won’t make it upstairs until after the elections and the best possible outcome for the election for the conservatives (assuming one of them takes the presidency as expected) is to stay where they are.

    The Lib candidate for Montgomery (the vacant seat) is hardline and clearly anti-abortion.

  21. BK

    [
    sprocket_
    Please tell us what got Tone all tied up.]
    Excuse me for butting in but I think it was “What is your policy for (insert any topic)”.

  22. Wow. Watching Gillard at the community forum makes one want to swallow razor blades just to etch the shrill from memory. Undecided voters my arse. I guess the really hard questions were “managed” well before the forum.

    Someone should have asked Gillard about the government funded scare campaign about how people in Deakin will be worse off under the Coalition. Considering this is the same government that can’t forecast it’s income more than 5 minutes ahead without blowing out into billions I hardly think they are the ones to talk about the public purse. Even worse is that the cuts that they were talking about are for handouts and vote buying funded by stupid and poorly thought out taxes which will destroy future budgets. Compensation for crap that she said we weren’t even going to have.
    Ironic isn’t it that for all the propaganda we hear from the government about how Australia is the envy of the world, four fifths of the population need some sort of handout (often multiple) to survive apparently.

  23. Media now reporting Amphlett died of breast cancer and MS. Not surprising earlier reports of her death hedged on the cause given she was co-morbid.

  26. [morpheus
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 8:36 pm | PERMALINK
    Wow. Watching Gillard at the community forum makes one want to swallow razor blades just to etch the shrill from memory. Undecided voters my arse. I guess the really hard questions were “managed” well before the forum.]

    All the “community” meetings are now just branch meetings. No one but rusted on suporters are turning up, and why would you with just 144 days of the government left to go.

  28. poroti @ 1727

    Oh, the leftards and their natural magnanimous superiority. You do realise there is a big wide world out there with lots more information that the habitual “pat on the backs” here from fellow leftards while talking about how “WE” will defeat Abbott Abbott Abbott.

    Detesting the monotonous shrill of the Gillard does imply anything but an more advanced ability to think for ones self and actually getting away from the keyboard to speak to others.

  29. “Gillard & Swan will feature in a lot of the LNP adds during the election; not just the infamous “There will be no carbon tax ———” No need for actors. Comedy gold.”

    How does the song go?…:”Wishin’ and hopin’ and schemin’ and prayin’…”

  30. Wow Morpheus, you must be very rich or very naive to think you will be better off under the LNP. I’ve done my sums and I will be better off cutting my working hours and going on unemployment benefits once the tax free threshold increase is removed…

    I imagine many people will be like me…So I don’t think the ALP are running a scare campaign at all.

  31. joe carli @ 1729

    Even more gold will be GIllard’s ex fling, Emerson, doing the “i am retarded” Wyalla song, while another billion $ investment evaporates from the area.

  34. Morpheus

    [You do realise there is a big wide world out there ]
    Maaaate. Brought up on a dairy farm I have been in my tine a labourer a store shelf stacker a tally clerk a senior chemist a carwash attendant a rigger and scaffolder an R&D Chemist a diamond driller. I think I have seen the “big wide world”

  35. liyana @1730

    You must be psychic then (hey, there’s a job opportunity) as no one knows what Rabbit’s budget policy is.

    And you need to do more research on the tax free threshold, because the sting is in the detail.

  37. On your knees, you right-wing pentinents!..you beggars for glory from a beggar to Murdoch!….How far does a crawler crawl?..How does one honour the dishonourable? Yet they are legion, those who hunger to adore the abonimable!
    Weak..undisciplined and veangeful…: the right-wing.

  38. paroti @1734

    Then there is no excuse for the tripe you posted. You might think Gillard is the best thing since sliced bread but those that don’t aren’t automatically devoid of ideas.

  39. Abbott will be looking for a big rock to hide under after releasing his billboard own goal today.

    He hates the piss being taken and people making fun of him and boy aren’t there some good piss takes getting around of his upgraded billboard.

    They would make a good wallpaper.

  41. Morpheus
    What drugs are you taking ? Gillard has made shed loads of mistakes and has really disappointed me on many occasions BUT she is still 5000% better than the alternative.

  42. I’ve just consulted the tea leaves 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁

    Expect improving ALP Polling up to the budget, mid May: then a precipitous drop to new depths 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  43. For those asking earlier about what Abbott found difficult to answer coherently, it was being pushed to drop his promises if the budget situation was found to be worse than expected.

    Drop Gonski, drop NDIS, drop his generous paid parental leave.

    Umm, arghh, umm, arghh…….

  44. Rummel,

    Let’s sell Tasmania to New Zealand! The NZ’ers have worked out how to have industry, farming and tourism all at the same time and keep Green nut jobs out of power.

  45. Hi Morpheus, why don’t you enlighten me? I’ll listen Last I heard was that if there is no carbon tax there is no need for compensation. And I don’t believe electricity prices will drop if there is no carbon tax- I think that is naive. As for there being no budget policy…well that’s the problem isn’t it?..All I can go on is what has been said…

  46. Just want to add…I do have a job, but I will be better off working less and taking part unemployment benefit if the tax free threshold is returned to previous levels.

  47. rua

    [Holy crapola, the magnetized one thinks that revenue will suddenly change for Joe Hockey.]

    He obviously believes the Money Fairy will give Joe a golden shower. 😮 😀 👿

  49. Tanya Plibersek upcoming on Q&A:

    I’m predicting she will give Julia Gillard a lesson in how to communicate easily and effectively in a voice that doesn’t send voters across the nation ducking for cover. Make Plibersek leader tomorrow and I give Labor a tiny chance of winning the unwinnable Sept 14 election.

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