The latest weekly BludgerTrack update accommodates results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan’s multi-mode poll, with the latter looking like it will be a regularly weekly occurrence in contrast to the unpredictable schedule of the face-to-face series it has replaced. This is a somewhat better batch of polling for Labor than the previous week or two, gaining them 0.5% on two-party preferred and two extra on the seat projection. My latest bias adjustments for the Morgan multi-mode polling, based on comparison of its results with the overall poll trend, are +1.7% for Labor, +0.4% for the Coalition and -1.5% for the Greens, compared with +1.4%, +0.9% and -1.5% as I calculated them a week ago.
In other news, I have a raft of preselection action and a review of some minor electoral law changes:
• A bitterly contested preselection to replace Nicola Roxon in the rock solid Labor seat of Gellibrand in western Melbourne has been won by Telstra executive Tim Watts, running with the backing of Stephen Conroy, for whom he once worked as a staffer. His opponents were Katie Hall, a former adviser to Roxon who ran with her backing; Kimberley Kitching, former Melbourne councillor and current acting general manager of the Health Services Union No. 1 branch; Julia Mason and Daniel McKinnon. The 50% of the preselection vote determined by a local party ballot conducted on Monday saw 126 votes go to Watts, 105 to Kitching, 87 to Hall, 42 to McKinnon and four to Mason. Despite a preference deal between Kitching and Hall, that gave Watts a decisive lead going into Tuesday’s vote of the party’s Public Office Selection Committee, where the “stability pact” between the Shorten-Conroy Right forces and the Socialist Left reportedly assured him of about 70% of the vote. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Kitching, who had hoped to prevail with support from Turkish community leaders, was thwarted when the “Suleyman clan” (referring to an influential family in western suburbs politics) defected to Watts in exchange for support for Natalie Suleyman to take the number three position on the upper house ticket for Western Metropolitan at the next state election. A dirt sheet targeting Hall over her sexual history and involvement in the HSU was disseminated in the week before the vote, which has led to Kitching complaining to an ALP tribunal that Roxon had falsely accused her of being involved.
• Steve McMahon, chief executive of the NSW Trainers Association (as in thoroughbred horses) and former mayor of Hurstville, has won Labor preselection for the southern Sydney seat of Barton, to be vacated at the election by Robert McClelland. Much more on that in the next episode of Seat of the Week.
• Barnaby Joyce faces opposition at the April 13 Nationals preselection for New England in the shape of David Gregory, owner of an agricultural software business in Tamworth. Another mooted nominee, National Farmers Federation president Jock Laurie, is instead seeking preselection for the by-election to replace Richard Torbay in his Armidale-based state seat of Northern Tablelands.
• Tony Crook, who won the southern regional WA seat of O’Connor for the Nationals from Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010, has announced he will not seek another term. The seat was already looming as a spirited three-cornered contest to match the several which had unfolded at the state election (including in the corresponding local seats of Kalgoorlie and Eyre), with the Liberals running hard and early behind their candidate, Katanning farmer Rick Wilson.
• Jason Tin of the Courier-Mail reports Chris Trevor will again be Labor’s candidate for the central Queensland seat of Flynn, having won the seat when it was created in 2007 before joining the Queensland Labor casualty list in 2010. Nicole Hodgson, a teacher, and Leanne Donaldson, a former public servant in child protection, were reportedly set to take on the thankless tasks of Hinkler and Fadden.
A package of electoral law changes made it through parliament last month in the shape of the Electoral and Referendum Amendment (Improving Electoral Administration) Act 2013, despite opposition to some measures from the Coalition and Senate cross-benchers Nick Xenophon and John Madigan:
• If a ballot box is unlawfully opened before the authorised time, as occurred at two pre-poll booths in Boothby and Flynn at the 2010 election, the act now requires that the votes be admitted to the count if it is established that “official error” was responsible. The AEC requested the law be clarified after it acted on contestable legal advice in excluding the relevant votes in Boothby and Flynn from the count, which were too few to affect the result. In its original form the bill directed that the affected votes should be excluded, but Bronwyn Bishop successfully advocated for the savings provision when it was referred to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.
• The Australian Taxation Office has been added to the list of agencies which can provide the Australian Electoral Commission with data relevant to enrolment. As usual with matters that touch on automatic enrolment, this was opposed by the Coalition, Xenophon and Madigan, but supported by all lower house independents and the Greens.
• Pre-polling will in all circumstances begin four days after the close of nominations, giving the AEC two more days to print and disseminate material to the voting centres. The Coalition took the opportunity to move for the pre-poll period to be cut from 19 days before polling day to 12, again with the support of Xenophon and Madigan. The change also eliminates a discrepancy where the date came forward a day if there was no election for the Senate, in which case the election timetable did not have to provide an extra day for lodgement of Senate preference tickets.
• Those casting pre-poll votes will no longer have to sign declaration certificates. A change in the status of pre-poll votes from declaration to ordinary votes was implemented at the 2010 election, allowing them to be counted on election night, but voters still had to sign a certificate. The AEC advised this was unnecessary, but the measure was nonetheless opposed by the Coalition, Xenophon and Madigan.
• The cut-off for receiving postal vote applications has been moved back a day from Thursday to Wednesday, acknowledging the near certainty that voting material posted to those who apply on the Thursday will not be received in time.
• The timetable for conducting electoral redistributions has been amended to allow more time for considering objections raised in public submissions.
US does not act against ‘tyrants’ unless in its own interests. Otherwise oppressed people can make their own arrangements. Mubarak an example.
[872
victoria
MINING billionaire Andrew Forrest says Australia will be left behind if efforts aren’t made to make Sydney a strategic trading centre for Chinese currency.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/breaking-news/sydney-can-be-asian-financial-hub-forrest/story-e6frf7ko-1226619173488%5D
I think Perth should become the major strategic trading centre for the Yuan. Why not! We have some computers and a few phone lines, and can get some 457’s in from the UK, where they no longer have an economy or much of a banking system.
[The Democracy Index lists Jordan as an “authoritarian regime”.]
That’s a Western concept, and shows a lack of understanding of how Arab monarchies work. King Abdullah is not a dictator. He rules largely by consent through tribal and religious networks. Dissidents are repressed, though not as forcefully as in most Arab countries.
And I wonder where he got that money from.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-12/tax-office-withdraws-case-as-tinkler-pays-debt/4625576
Off to airport. I’ll be back later for the list of 12 dictators currently supported by the US. Diogenes has already failed his quiz, we’ll see if anyone else can do better.
[893…..Psephos]
Bring back the Ottomans. Things were much better in the olden days, before Western Imperialism sunk its teeth into the Muslim torso.
I guess Twiglet missed the Johnson Report into Australia as an Asian financial hub released in 2010.
If he stopped big noting himself he may find the Govt started work on this years ago.
The currency swap idea did not just popup out of thin air.
Oppression isn’t relative, depending on whether one is western or eastern, northern or southern. Oppression is a universal concept. Punishment of dissent is oppressive and such a regime qualifies, as did Mubarek.
BK
New Caledonia? Nauru or maybe Switzerland now they’ve wavered on banking privacy.
That he pays up is good.
Imperialism imperialism imperialism. You guys have been taking the KCNA way too seriously.
Phepsos
[Off to airport.]
Two large people who are reading the Australian will be sitting left and right of you.
Enjoy the flight.
briefly
[Bring back the Ottomans.]
Get stuffed.
They shot my Uncle and his horse.
CTar1
🙂
Cruel!
[Bring back the Ottomans]
Out of style now, the pouffee is all the rage, 😆
ru
I prefer to refer to them as ‘cushions of a different sexual preference’, thank you.
BK
[Cruel!]
To Pheshos or Dan and his horse!
Zoom
[‘cushions of a different sexual preference’]
This is, indeed, kinky.
😆
Where are the Woodside rooned by Carbon Tax stories from the Opposition?
Psephos
The twelve dictatorships have already been listed.
You are impervious to reality.
Psephos
[That’s a Western concept, and shows a lack of understanding of how Arab monarchies work. King Abdullah is not a dictator. He rules largely by consent through tribal and religious networks. Dissidents are repressed, though not as forcefully as in most Arab countries.]
Oh so dictatorship is now a relative concept. it’s just a social construct.
Accepted definitions of dictatorship don’t actually apply if they aren’t convenient.
You really have absolutely no integrity.
[What is the reaction to this in NSW? When Bligh did it the sky was going to fall in.]
Rua It will all depend on how the Daily Terror, Jones and Hadley play it and we can be pretty sure that they will like it. No worries for O’Farrell.
http://australiansforhonestpolitics.wordpress.com/2013/04/12/3204/
By Kieran Cummings (@sortius)
Illustrations by Bushfire Bill.
[The reality is that Murdoch sees government intervention as a threat to his hostile business practices; from regulation to infrastructure development, all must be stopped so Rupert can ‘live freer’.
Over the next few months leading up to the election we can assume that attacks on the NBN will grow shrill and desperate from News Ltd papers, giving people the impression that if they don’t settle for less their ‘freedom’ will be impinged upon. The truth is that the opposite is true.
With greater speeds, greater stability and the freedom to choose from whom we purchase content, a government-funded first-in-class network will foster Australian content and give content providers the opportunity to gain a greater market share.]
ru
Woodside and the Greens are all in it together according to Howes.
[THE national workers union has accused Woodside Petroleum of bypassing Australian workers in favour of offshore operations and higher profits, aided by the Greens. Evidently Woodside are trying to get higher profits. Who would have ever thought a company would do that?
Paul Howes, national secretary of the Australian Workers’ Union (AWU), blasted Woodside’s decision to shelve the $45 billion LNG project in the Kimberley’s Browse basin on Friday as “the great Australian rip-off”.
“They have sacrificed tens of thousands of Australian jobs at the altar of higher profits for Woodside and (partner) Shell executives,” he told reporters in Sydney on Friday.]
Hmmm. This bit shouldn’t be in the quote
[Evidently Woodside are trying to get higher profits. Who would have ever thought a company would do that?]
CTar1
[
briefly
Bring back the Ottomans.
Get stuffed.
They shot my Uncle and his horse.]
They shot my gg uncle in the leg which on balance was a good thing. He was sent back from Gallipoli because of the wound and on the long voyage home fell in love with and married a nurse from the hospital ship. Happily married for 54 years.
Diog re dictatorships. Psephos is correct in his description of Jordan. There is relativity and there are cultural considerations particularly if the current alternative is a far worse and aggressive dictatorship and not a move to a more truly democratic regime. In places like Thailand and Malaysia you get heavy jail terms for insulting the King or the PM. In the new Arab sort of democracies (Tunisia, Libya, Iraq, Egypt) and in BanglaDesh there are heavy jail terms or death for insulting Islam or for converting from Islam. So these are all kinds of dictatorships but maybe better than the alternative dictatorship. Is Morsi’s Islamist takeover better than Mubarak’s regime? Ask the Egyptians maybe.
Mick
Jordan meets the textbook definition of a dictatorship.
It is classified as an “authoritarian regime” using the Democracy Index.
Even Psephos describes it as repressive.
It is clearly not the “worst” dictatorship in the world but it is still a dictatorship.
PMOPressOffice @PMOPressOffice 7m
.@Raf774 here’s the transcript @TonyAbbottMHR didn’t want people to see. Full script here: http://goo.gl/gwMVB #auspol
Covers NBN and other things 🙂
[http://www.smh.com.au/world/ding-dong-song-soars-after-thatchers-death-20130412-2hpq3.html]
Wow, nation wide misogyny.
[Off to airport. I’ll be back later for the list of 12 dictators currently supported by the US. Diogenes has already failed his quiz, we’ll see if anyone else can do better.
by Psephos on Apr 12, 2013 at 3:59 pm]
Me too, watch out or U might be stuck next to a Lib!!!!
Saudi
UAE
Yemen
Oman
Afghanistan
….and a few South Americans
rummel
[Wow, nation wide misogyny.]
Whatever Maggie T is hated for it is not because she is a women.
Diog
So how do say Malaysia, Bangla Desh and Pakistan rank on the Democracy Index?
lizzie
That interview transcript was a ripper. Well done Raf!
BK
ABC presenters not so dumb after all!!!
[poroti
Posted Friday, April 12, 2013 at 5:13 pm | PERMALINK
rummel
Wow, nation wide misogyny.
Whatever Maggie T is hated for it is not because she is a women.]
Anyway im glad you agree that whatever Gillard is hated for it is not because she is a women.
rummel
that just shows how young you are
or not reading up on your history
nothing to do with being a female
I suggest you have a listen to
Glenda Jackson.
the other thing you could do is find her quotes
Abbott has been in hiding today, is he still trying to figure out what Malcolm has done to him?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDtClJYJBj8
and rummell
don’t stop listening
I suppose you will think
o well she is labor she would say that
well just listen and learn
rummel
A bit of a non sequitur.
I will listen with you
[my say
Posted Friday, April 12, 2013 at 5:21 pm | PERMALINK
rummel
that just shows how young you are]
My say, it fun watching the left spin around trying not to compair the Gillard signs of ditch the witch in Australia against those on display in England!
So we’re agreed that both Thatcher and Gillard are criticised legitimately for their respective actions or non-actions as PMs, and gender is not the reason?
That’s a relief at last. Took a death to make it clear, but so be it.
Anyway Mysay,
I have had my little dig at the hypocrisy of it and will move on to leave tonights debate to something more worthy then left/right version of thatcher history wars.
jaundiced view
How on earth do you manage to come up with equivalence between the actions of PMJG and Maggie T ?
rum/jv
get a room
Mick
Malaysia = flawed democracy
Pakistan and Bangladesh = hybrid regime
the malcolm and tony show is SO FUNNY and just goes to show why TA CAN NEVER BE PM
ruawake @ 937
Abbott has been in hiding today, is he still trying to figure out what Malcolm has done to him?
I think he expected a surge of support for the policy but in the end he is going to find that his Malcolms’ bull is not for turning.!
Mick
This is the 2011 list.
http://www.sida.se/Global/About%20Sida/Så%20arbetar%20vi/EIU_Democracy_Index_Dec2011.pdf
Poroti
[How on earth do you manage to come up with equivalence between the actions of PMJG and Maggie T ?]
Equivalence? – No, only to the extent of criticism for respective performance as PMs is what I am pointing out.