Newspoll echoes Essential Research in finding Labor recovering from its recent lows, its primary vote up three points on a fortnight ago to 34% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is down three points on the primary vote to 44%, and the Greens are steady on 11%. Julia Gillard has recovered the lead on preferred prime minister lead she lost in the previous poll, now leading 42% (up six) to 38% (down two).
UPDATE: Julia Gillard approval 32% (up two), disapproval 57% (down one). Tony Abbott approval 36% (up three), disapproval 55% (steady). Preferred Labor leader: Kevin Rudd 44%, Julia Gillard 25%, Bill Shorten 16%. Voting intention with Kevin Rudd as leader: Labor 47%, Coalition 39%.
UPDATE (12/3/13): The second Morgan poll using its new “multi-mode” methodology covering both face-to-face and online surveying, claiming a huge overall sample of 4627, has Labor on 31.5% (down 1.5%), the Coalition on 47% (up 2%) and the Greens 11% (up 0.5%). Labor trails 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (out from 54.5-45.5) and 55.5-44.5 on previous election (out from 54-46). This marks a re-emergence of the curious disparity between these figures in Morgan, familiar from when their methodology was purely face-to-face, but which appeared to be absent in last week’s result.
I give up
Ask your selves people posters that continually
Bring this up
Are they. Labor
May be not
Any way u decide
briefly@4747
Nothing unifies like winning.
Season’s not over yet Ducky but its probably someone else’s turn this year anyway.
my say,
Humour the critters. You must see just how funny it all is.
my say@4751
My say, as you have been reminded countless times, this is not an ALP blog. William welcomes diversity of opinion and full credit to him.
I was looking up the odds on the next Labor leader (no change BTW) and I noticed a Chuka Umanna is third favourite to be next Labour leader in the UK. Great name.
True – because that’s all he has.
False – she will campaign on that, yes. But plus NDIS, plus Gonski, plus Carbon Pricing, plus Plain packaging, plus NBN, plus media regulation, plus tighening 457 rorts, plus preserving working entitlements … plus … plus … plus …
In other words, if it comes down to Gillard vs Abbott, then Gillard will win.
That’s what they’re all afraid of.
I call BS and I think you are well aware of your continual psychosis when it comes to Rudd.
If there is to be a change then it should be to the person whom the public have made it clear years ago and ever since that they want above all others to be PM.
Logically he must be the one with the greatest chance of bring on a recovery for Labor, the one to at least save the most MPs from unemployment.
It is base stupidity to contend otherwise.
And to choose somebody besides him would look like Labor once again, over and over spitting in the face of the public will. They will abandon all hope for Labor and stick with their Coalition voting intention.
But – never the less, I would still enjoy the result of installing a third candidate, as Labor desperately need the clean out. Win win either way.
davidwh,
I thought The Roar played great footie. I give the coach who “chose to leave” a big kick up the arse.
It’s almost ALWAYS Labor people who bring up the leadership. Non Labor people are much less interested in it.
Just back from footy, wtf going on….gosford? the central coast? we talking thompson? was gibt kameraden?
Rossmore, you haven’t got back to me about that small bit of campaigning on 21st March.
Not really. I’m merely trying to be realistic. I think the people do not really want TA, but they will vote for him anyway for a whole lot of reasons. But the most important one is because of an expectation that power will be held and exercised with skill and certainty. The Rudd/Gillard struggle has destroyed them both, imo, and has to be put into the past if Labor is gong to have a chance of victory.
TP
Rudd would have the best chance if it wasn’t Gillard (I’m not sure if he’d have a better chance than Gillard) but if the ALP lost after dumping Gillard for Rudd, the party would tear itself apart for years.
Diogenes@4760
You can narrow it down even further.
It’s almost always the pro-Gillard camp of ALP supporters who raise the leadership issue.
briefly
We seemed to have had very unified party way back in June 2010 until the Right Wing union cabals thought that they would like to control the joint.
The AWU and the SDA thought that now they were in Government after a decade or more they wanted some of the leather seats in the front row of the Senate and the Reps.
You only have to look at the quality of some of them to know that they were not there for their brilliance they were there to increase their pension when they retired.
Tonight it was raised by a Green, and raised from an anti ALP position.
Make of that what you will
aren’t we at war with Oceania?….haven’t we always been at war with Oceania?
This blog is meant to be about polling, leave #leadershit to Murdoch organs and Hartcher.
Here is a nice poll from today.
http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/poll-shows-overwhelming-support-for-gillard-s-457#.UUMAwCiZLLc.twitter
The overwhelming support for Australians first for available jobs isa simple message which is cutting through. This was paraded by JG throughout Sydney’s Western Suburbs, and the mood swing in the F2Fs there was missed by the OldMedia with their pre-determined narrative.
And Abbott has been foolishly going around saying – foreigners will get you jobs first, and trying some pokey, stale wedge on boats.
Lets see if Neilsen picks up the shift in NSW as well.
MTBW:
Your position is completely devoid of reality.
ROYBOYS!!!
WTF you talking about. Unify what…faction control?? There is no unity in the party just a bunch of salary men doing as their factional masters dictate. The others unify under what little power plan they have up their sleeve.
If you really want unity in the party then destroy all the elements that puts it under control of a handful of self interest power brokers…and that would mean YOU must want Rudd as leader, following your intent.
So congratulations you DO want Rudd to lead the party so it can atain unity in the future. Well don.
Or people who pretend to be Labor people.
I think a substantial number of them are actually Greens suffering from “relevance deprivation syndrome”.
Briefly,
You truly are embarrassing yourself.
Hint: check the prognostications of the Nostradamuses. Check Finns’ list. Get a reality check. Geez!
And nothing else matters. So get in touch with your inner Richo and roll in the sweet mud of compromise.
A union contact of mine says Crean, by the way. But only as a stalking horse which could ‘accidentally stuff-up’ into him being elected leader, given how bad ALP strategists are.
Thats a quote.
Me, Id have thought a story this big would generate more leaks than one to Bob in Darwin. But who knows.
Oh, and just one specially for Confessions: someone did call Giles as Chief Minister, a full week before it happened, on March 6:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/northern/2013/03/06/nt-political-rabble-lambley-quits-mills-sacked-giles-wins/
His name was …. Bob Gosford. 🙂
Sleep well!
The way bludgers are going on tonight you would be forgiven for thinking they are the Canberra Press Gallery
confessions@4767
I did say almost. And I must commend you for your greater restraint of late.
@TP/4772
I am assuming “bunch of salary men doing as their factional masters dictate” include Rudd Faction?
457 is a great tactical move
take a taxi anywhere and the usually subcontinental driver is an IT trainee ( or has his own business)
TP…you can insult me if you like. It makes no difference to me or anything else. But when it comes to Rudd, the complete certainty is the party will not have him, from the most senior levels down. The reasons are entirely personal. He is not fit to lead the country, regardless of any polls. The caucus may be self-interested, but there is room in their hearts for the best interests of the country too. Were he to find some way to force himself on the party, there will be mass resignations. Hardly anyone will work with him. Nothing has changed since June 2010 in this respect. Caucus made a mistake with him once. They will not repeat it.
confessions
And what is the state of yours?
Get over yourself!
I think that is a good point. Labor would have to decide once and for all what it is. A bunch of self interested power brokers .. thus willing to tear the party apart, in which case the best outcome would be for Labor to get the thrashing they would cause….OR swallow their little plans, and hope for some power later in the piece…or at least save some furniture.
I understand Tom Waterhouse was prowling the sideline at Channel 9s Rugby League telecast, promoting his odds – and exotics like betting on the final crowd number.
For once, I agree with Joe Hockey.
Lateline has discovered Tony Abbott is not fully forthcoming on the policy front.
Have they changed the water at the ABC?
See you all tomorrow!
As the old saying goes tomorrow is another day we will see what happens.
I suggest u read the gentlemans
Twitter feed
don’t any of u. Research
The people u read
Think I made a great decision when I canceled
Crickey
Should I be blushing?
I’m not saying it’s inevitable. Were JG to resign in favour of a third candidate, the JG/KR power struggle will be brought to an end. This is a precondition for victory this year.
Thomas. Paine.@4782
Bingo!
Who was it picked TP tonight? Pick up your meat tray at reception on your way out!
4764
Diogenes
And if he wins, and is as unworkable as first time around, it may not pan out so well either.
MTBW@4785
Much the same as today, I expect … Labor more electable. PB, OM and LNP more unhinged.
The leadership thing is the elephant in the room because Rudd has made it that way.
Most Labor people, at the end of the day, really don’t want to lose the election to Abbott – that is all.
Rudd had the opportunity while FM to played his cards carefully and keep his integrity intact. He did not have the discipline to do it.
He not only threw the FM job back in the face of Labor, and I suppose Gillard who gave him the job, with the maximum publicity he could call to himself at the time and more, by all reports, has been white-anting Labor from within for months.
Now whether this makes him worthy of another crack I do not know, but the petty stuff about who “brings up the Rudd issue first” is pointless.
He still has only four options:
1. Shut up – and get his supporters to shut up too.
2. Get on board and be a team member Help win the election. He has loads of ability but can he discipline himself for the greater good?
3. Retire – Not in the nature of the man I suppose
4. Challenge – Has it got the numbers, will he ever have them?
If it is No 4, let’s make it soon.
If it is No 3, let’s make news of it soon. I thought that was what was going to happen yesterday
If it is No 2, let’s make it now
If it is No 1, any time soon will be helpful.
now what could be more interesting than #leadershit?
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Nostradamus 56 for zip in this leadershit matter on finnscale +/- MOE = far kall.
Just wrong.
Kinda the same thing you think flying qantas that they’ve never crashed…..IS THIS THE TIME?
Seemingly more grounded in reality than you.
I do. Looks to me like Bob’s confident, though doesnt really care if its wrong. Treat with caution.
And incidentally, thats where I noticed this:
Poor form to cite myself, I know, but after hearing Confessions gradgrind about this point all night, it was kinda suhhhhhweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet…
TLBD # 4739 – the reference you are after I think is this one … http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZEEgIti8sM (warning includes inappropriate visual content)
The leadership of Federal Labor keeps coming up for two reasons. The hung Parliament has meant one resignation away from change of Government and media speculation because of this and wishing to portray an unstable government.
Without those two reasons this subject would be consigned to the museum of politcal history already
Making too many typos and repeating myself.
Time to give it over to the Ghoul shift!
Not many cockies out though. Thought there would be more by this time of the evening.
Bloody hell if there was. No media
And u lot talking about the above
No one would be
Get a. Hobby
And go way some where leave us real labor people in peace
Talk about monopilise
Take over, whatever
I have a contact in the PM’s office.
She assures me that PMJG has had numerous meetings with Janelle Saffon over the last 10 days.
The PM is trying to convince Ms Saffon to accept the primeministership in a smooth, bloodless transition to the next generation of leadership.
PMJG wants this transition to occur ASAP, and she will retire to the backbench and concentrate on her bible studies in her preparation to be received into the Catholic church in June.
Apparently it is an open secret in the PM’s office and in the press gallery that JG is intent on being the first woman to be ordained a Jesuit priest.