In the culmination of a fast-moving crisis that appeared on the radar less than 48 hours ago, Ted Baillieu has stepped down as Victorian Premier. More on that to follow, but for the time being here’s a thread to discuss it.
UPDATE (30 SECONDS LATER): Denis Napthine?!
UPDATE 2: Lacking any substantial understanding of my own concerning Victorian Liberal factional politics, I await further explanation as to why Denis Napthine in particular was left holding the parcel when the music stopped. As Lefty E relates in comments, Barrie Cassidy has apparently told Lateline that Baillieu threatened he “wouldn’t go quietly” if it was anyone but Napthine. Leadership talk had been primarily focused on Planning Minister Matthew Guy, but this was presumably predicated on some scheme to move him to the lower house, which events have moved far too quickly to accommodate (on which note, PB’s resident legal authority Graeme Orr argues in comments that while it’s purely a convention that leaders come from the lower house, it’s sufficiently entrenched a convention that a Governor faced with swearing in a leader from the upper house would likely be advised not to proceed).
Also yet to be explained are the substantial reasons why Baillieu felt resignation the best course of action available to him, and what exactly Geoff Shaw had to with it. For the time being, we are left to suspect that it may have involved Shaw flexing the muscle he has fortuitously acquired as a result of the delicate parliamentary balance. John Ferguson of The Australian offers the following exhaustive list of Shaw’s accomplishments in public life:
Police late last year launched a criminal investigation into Mr Shaw after he was allegedly found to have rorted his taxpayer entitlements over the use of his parliamentary car. In other controversies, Mr Shaw made lewd gestures at the opposition during a question time; likened legalising homosexuality to legalising child molestation, speed driving and murder; was involved in a roadside punch-up with a young motorist in 2011; was fined and put on a good behaviour bond after being charged over a 1992 assault at a Frankston nightclub; and allegedly called Labor MP James Merlino a “midget” in question time.
Having been supported through all this by the leadership of the government, Shaw announced today he could “no longer support the leadership of the government”, taking it upon himself to diagnose a “general loss of confidence Victorians are feeling”.
The situation raises thorny questions about the circumstances in which one should advocate an early election. Although I criticised Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott for overlooking the wishes of their constituents when they cut their deal with the Prime Minister, I have been of the view that their transparent arrangement provided a workable basis for the government to go about its business and answer to its constituents in due course. It seems quite a different matter for a government to be at the fickle mercy of a single opportunist with all manner of question marks surrounding his probity.
That’s not to say an election is realistically in prospect, at least for now. Presumably Shaw will need to stand by the government if he wants to see out his term, and a government that badly needs to right its ship will be entirely content to tolerate the arrangement.
[William B i think it’s the ‘safe pair of hands’ line…]
In whose judgement though?
[@latikambourke: PM Gillard statement on Baillieu resignation. #springst http://t.co/EdvaMt2EZS ]
the PM has class. stand back and let the libs damage themselves. I’m hoping more comes out re: Faillieu’s involvement in police conspiracy and developers’ apparent corrupt donations, so that Abbott’s “Honourable man” endorsement comes back to haunt Abbott.
William B
Guy was the preferred choice but not constitutionally possible. Some have speculated Baillieu agreed to resign only if Napthine succeeded.
Justin Smith @JustinSmith3AW
Lib insider tells me Tony Nutt will be gone this time tomorrow. New chief of staff will be from the “Kennett era” @3AW693 #springst
William,
I’d see Napthine as Premier as the last gasp of the Kennett generation.
Not true. If parliament is dissolved and an early election held, the election clock is reset with the new term expiring in the November not more than 4 years after the election.
Interesting
I may have mis-read Crank but Frankston is not really a Labor leaning suburb, it has a mixture of ALP and Liberal booths and one little booth that has gone to the winning party of every election since the 1970s.
At this stage their isn’t any real evidence of corruption in this Government. There is a serious allegation of potential mis-conduct that was highlighted in the tapes.
Denis Naphine has been an okay performer and i agree with the comments that Ted has been a likable person as i think he is a good MLA but as i have also said his Government from day one has lacked direction.
Regarding Matthew Guy, he has mostly continued the policies of the previous Government.
Denis Naphine is an interesting choice, when thinking about possible replacements i only though about Guy or maybe Mulder.
I will conclude by saying that Peter Ryan should also be looking to move on, listening to the tapes and looking at Victorian politics i have for a while felt Ryan was an issue for this Government.
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It has to be remembered that the Country party only had a competitive number of seats because Victoria had severe malapportionment in favour of rural areas. One it was fixed in 1952, they were back down to minor party status and the ALP was able to get a majority (until the split).
Victoria has previously had one maybe two Premiers from the Upper House but not since the 1860s
Tom the first and best
Would you be able to prove an example of that malapportionment, i would love a website that showed all the old state and federal seat maps
I think the Liberals are about to (re)discover why they got rid of Napthine before the 2002 election.
Out of fairness to Naphine i dealt anyone would have beaten Bracks in 2002
Robert Doyle lost to Bracks in 2002. Napthine was dumped about three months earlier.
I mentioned to my mother that a Denis Napthine was the new Premier of Victoria, and she asked based upon his name if he was Jewish. Not to my knowledge, I replied. The cached page for The Age‘s “At a glance: Denis Napthine, Victoria’s new premier” includes “Religion: Jewish” among its list of facts, but it appears this has been removed.
Sorry MB, I now see you were aware of that.
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About the only way to see it on the internet is the UWA election database and even then it is hard.
http://elections.uwa.edu.au/electionsearch.lasso?ID=1
I would also love such a website.
Jon Faine has told @ABCNews24 he believes the position of Vic Dep Prem Peter Ryan is in doubt #springst
How many premiers in Australia have been Jews?
Thanks William, I had forgotten that he was dumped before facing the people but Bracks was such a strong leader at that time
Love to see Ryan given the flick. In fact, bugger it, The Victorian Government is clearly dysfunctional, Election Now !!!
Surely he needs to go but who could replace him, maybe Powell from Shepparton or Walsh from Swan Hill
Not much to argue with in this Fairirfax editorial:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/editorial/baillieus-downfall-of-his-own-making-20130306-2flsb.html
Kinda like The Age of old. But it wont persuade me to restore my annual subscription.
Just as an aside, a couple of days ago, Centrebet was offering a “special” on the question of whether JG and/or Baillieu would survive until their respective next elections. There were various combinations – you could bet on Baillieu not surviving and JG surviving, vice versa, both surviving, or neither surviving. Sadly, I don’t recall the specific odds.
Night all, epic day for Victorian PBers
MB 162_______
I don’t understand this comment of yours
Bracks won his second victory in 2002
The major f then was the extent of the massive swing in Melb…where at the previous election he had won power with a big swing in the rural/regional towns and cities and a small swing inb Melb .
In 2002 the swing in Melbourne wiped the Liberals out in many areas of Melb
Bracks went on to win again in 2006
see below
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Bracks
Woah – Barry Cassidy on Lateline saying Baillieu had Napthine installed with the threat he ‘wouldnt go quietly’ if it was anyone else.
[My tip – no early Victorian election no matter what. Next scheduled one is Nov 2014, and it has to be held even if there is a mid term election in between due to no confidence!]
I don’t think that’s right. Antony Green:
[The election is not for the balance of the term but for a new fixed term with new start date set out in Section 38 of the Constitution Act.]
To wit:
[(2) If the previous Assembly is dissolved, the subsequent Assembly shall expire on the Tuesday which is 25 days before the last Saturday in November which is nearest to the last anniversary of the election day on which it was elected that occurs not more than 4 years after it was elected.]
Hilarious.
Too bad the majority of the country doesn’t care about what happens south of the Murray.
Napthine isn’t a Jewish name is it? But your mum may be a political polymath like you William. There is a Wikipedia entry for Joseph Potaski, the first Polish Jew said to emigrate here, which lists Dennis N as one of his descendants…. Doesn’t mean he’s an adherent or even culturally Jewish.
But if he were he’d be the most senior Lib ever from that faith background no? Along with P Baume I guess. Brogden never made it. Greiner’s parents were Jewish but like a lot of émigrés adopted Christianity at least notionally to assimilate.
Deblonay
My comment was referring to comment that Naphine was unpopular in 2002 which he was but in my view it would not have mattered who the Liberals had lead them in 2002 for Bracks was a long way in front in particular in Melbourne which mostly stayed with Jeff in 1999
[Napthine isn’t a Jewish name is it?]
Not that I was aware of, but my mother sounded pretty confident.
That’s odd.
MSM has no mention of ‘faceless men’ in all of this. I suspect this is a Coup gone wrong – Napthine is not the man the Right faction conspirators against Baillieu would have hoped for. Or is he simply the fall guy to be seen as having blood on his hands for Davis or some similar ‘hard’ right man steps up. The Oz have been gunning for Baillieu for a long time – not right-win enough for Mitchell and Murdoch?
And he has got a very big nose.
william – does alias get a red card for that? I have a big nose (I’m of scots/irish/pom/german/spanish descent) and I’m offended. Is ‘alias’ the alias of scott morrison?
Well this is a shock. This scandal seemed to come from nowhere and in the end was all-engulfing.
Sorry I apologise. I was idly quoting a line out of ‘The Life of Brian’. In fact, Denis Napthine doesn’t have a very big nose at all .. though merely saying that probably makes my offence worse.
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deflationite@27
Crying about lost income from scams .
For anyone unfamiliar with the classic big nose scene:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dE98F3IcvJA
To all those Victorians who tossed out a relatively competent ALP government 2.5 years ago, just because they felt like a change … I hope the events of today concentrate your minds come September.
I like the phrase “relatively competent”. I feel angry every time I use my Myki card on the public transport system. It was one of the worst examples of public waste in Victorian history. It is the single biggest reason Brumby lost office.
Napthine has an Aunt who is a Catholic Nun.
The new Liberal leader looks like a carbon copy of the former leader only with less personality, if that’s even possible.
And his middle name is Vincent.
alias – sorry about the scott morrison reference.
[To all those Victorians who tossed out a relatively competent ALP government 2.5 years ago, just because they felt like a change … I hope the events of today concentrate your minds come September.]
I don’t live in Victoria so can’t comment on the competence of the previous govt, but I don’t recall the past govt, even when it was a minority govt suffering the kinds of poor policy decisions, alleged corruption scandals, and general woefulness of the current Liberal govt.
And he is the third in a family of 10 children
No worries Sustainable Future.
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It was rather a mess. They probably should have gone for an off the shelf smart card system instead of going bespoke.
It was 1 of Peter Batchelor`s many policy failings. The general underspend on Melbourne PT when he was minister was another as was any of the problems with the smart meter roll out. It was Peter Batchelor who lost the ALP the 2010 election.
The wonders of the internet:
Napthine (old Anglo-Saxon):
http://www.surnamedb.com/Surname/Napthine
alias
“I like the phrase “relatively competent”. I feel angry every time I use my Myki card on the public transport system. It was one of the worst examples of public waste in Victorian history. It is the single biggest reason Brumby lost office.”
It has always worked just fine for me. I never saw what the big deal was. The only thing that irritates me about is is the inability at this point to top up on trams if you run out of credit. But even that is an oversight on my part.
But on occasion I do see people – mostly older folk – get frustrated when they quickly wave their card in the general direction of the reader and not have it touch on. I also see, incredibly, people persisting in touching off on trams in zone 1 which is just ridiculous. How many times do people need to be told they don’t have to do that?!
Yep, it had a teething period. But people are generally over it. I don’t sense a great community longing for Metcards to return and I think most people recognize smart cards are the way to go. If anything Myki is severely UNDER-utilized. You ought to be able to use it in taxis, in convenience stores and at vending machines at the very least.
And for the love of Dawkins let me put a dollar or two on my card on the tram if I’m caught short.
But yeah it cost a lot of money. All the more reason to make it as versatile and ubiquitous as possible.
I hate to be one of “those” guys but seeing the utilization of the Octopus Card in Hong Kong is a model example. Entirely different context of course but they figured it out.