The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since federation, with Rockhampton as its constant as boundaries shifted over the years. It currently has Rockhampton at its southern coastal end, from which it extends northwards to the southern outskirts of Mackay and westwards through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando 250 kilometres inland. Rockhampton has kept the seat strong for Labor for most of its history, the party’s only defeats after 1961 coming with the demise of the Whitlam and Keating governments in 1975 and 1996 (the margin on the former occasion being 136 votes).
The proverbial baseball bat having been wielded in 1996, the seat was recovered for Labor in 1998 by Kirsten Livermore, member of the “soft Left” tendency associated with Martin and Laurie Ferguson. Livermore picked up an 8.8% swing on her debut and retained the seat with reasonably comfortable margins thereafter, until an 8.7% swing in 2007 boosted it to very safe territory. Then came a 0.7% redistribution adjustment followed by an 8.4% swing amid the Queensland backlash of 2010, which reined it back to 3.7%. In December 2012 she announced she would not seek another term, as she wished to spend more time with her family.
A preselection to choose Livermore’s successor was held in February and won by Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner, former Belyando Shire mayor and current Isaac Regional councillor. This was despite the local party ballot being won 65-37 by Paul Hoolihan, who along with most of his Labor colleagues lost his seat of Keppel at the 2012 state election. However, Hoolihan was overwhelmed by a 41-9 to win for Freeleagus in the 50% component of the vote determined by the state party’s electoral college, which consists mostly of union delegates. Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that Freeleagus was backed by the Left faction CFMEU, but also harnessed support from the AWU Right at the behest of Wayne Swan. The implication appeared to be that this was a counter to Kevin Rudd, whose “Old Guard” Right faction included Hoolihan. The deal was also said to require that the Left back AWU Right over Old Guard candidates in future state preselections.
The Liberal National Party has again endorsed its candidate from 2010, Michelle Landry, who owns a small book-keeping business in Yeppoon. Landry won preselection ahead of real estate agent Alan Cornick and anti-council amalgamation campaigner Paul Lancaster.
imacca:
That would be never. 🙁
William.
JV is entitled to post here, CW. There’s also no rule against criticism of any particular politician.
I asked JV the question. Not you.
poriti
Nice. The innocent bystanders are pretty! But they phoned the AFP about SS, the bastards. I reckon it was one of those penguins, all innocent looking but full of fishy intent.
It’s a question you are not entitled to ask. Why not try engaging with the point he was making instead.
CW
I answered, I think. If you are civil to me I will be to you. What’s to lose?
Well, have emailed Tony asking him if its true that he meets with News Ltd. To help inform my decision on how to vote this year.
Will be interesting to see if i get a reply.
davidwh
It is a sad day when a person of Malcolm Turnbull’s promise as a potential leader of this country is out for the count against Tony Abbott. Relegated to a mere cipher.
It is not that Malcolm makes any sense in his absurd shadow portfolio position.
He has the acumen and presence to be something of a leader for our country. And I am sure that as the leader he would ditch the stupidity of the policy free zone and embark upon a vision thing.
It is truly sad to contemplate the dross we are faced with.
Enjoyed this Dawkins tweet:
Richard Dawkins @RichardDawkins
The designer of the expanding universe, deviser of quantum theory and relativity – he’s really interested in who you sleep with. Sinner.
It’s a question you are not entitled to ask.
Huh?
I am invariably civil.
JV returned because he felt like leaving comments on a psephological blog. Interrogating him about his motives is only “civil” in the very loosest sense, if at all.
Crikey it seems to me that Turnbull has accepted the reality of the situation something neither Gillard or Rudd seem to be able to do.
I enjoy talking politics CW. If people disagree with the idea being expressed, by anybody, not just me, I prefer they address the issue, rather than question the individual. Is that too much to ask?
The Gillard speech tonight was just to invited ALP members? Surprised they got a quorum. Of course, head office types and their families.
JV
And the people in the audience at abbott’s little function a few weeks ago were chosen at random from a bus queue … Yeah right …
JV
And the people in the audience at abbott’s little function a few weeks ago were chosen at random from a bus queue … Yeah right …
The advantage Gillard has over the Libs in the western Sydney marginals is all the focus groups they’ve run out there to get them where they are today. #winning
[Likewise; if Labor under Gillard appear to be just planning for defeat and trying to reduce the seat margin I’d prefer that Labor switch to a leader who would try to win even at greater risk of being thrashed. ]
Absoutely KB. I cant beleive this is considered controversial by anyone left of centre.
Fran
[The ALP has to win with Gillard or fail in the attempt.]
Why, Fran? What great principle is at stake that makes this a must lose for the Australian left of centre? None that I can see. Personally Im not overly keen on the 2nd option.
[I’m astonished that you would be so keen on handing Murdoch control of who is in charge of the ALP. Shouldn’t the ALP run its own affairs, for better or worse?]
Well Id say Murdoch would be reasonably happy with Gillard’s performance at this stage. But then again ‘The narrative’ comes from Fairfax and ABC as well. Yes, yes a terrible plot against JG. Either that, or they see the obvious poll trend.
Here’s my problem with ‘the narrative’ narrative: Gillard labor is letting it happen. Yes journos are bone lazy and pack hunt, all true, but Rudd for all his faults cut through straight to the people. You may recall it annoyed the GG plenty in 2007 that he wouldnt fight on the terrain they wanted him to.
Calling this ‘the narrative’ risks becoming a pre-emptive all-purpose excuse for truly terrible political communication and strategyless campaigning.
Meanwhile, real poll numbers are driving leadership speculation. Bring those down and it’ll dry up. Thats the reality.
[The Gillard speech tonight was just to invited ALP members? Surprised they got a quorum. Of course, head office types and their families.]
There were one-thousand people seated, and there were people turned away at the door.
Total demand for tickets was reported as 2,000, double the capacity of the auditorium.
I’m not a member, and I was there. The entire back half of the hall was for non-members.
BB
Forgive me. 2000. A triumph, clearly.
Yes it was. A sellout crowd always is.
Turned away at the door, they were. Turned away? Were they asylum seekers on day release from Villawood?
Can’t believe that after the last pathetic failure of the week, some here are STILL taking a Rudd comeback seriously.
It’s delusional.
Even the journos tonight agreed it was over.
[Turned away at the door, they were. Turned away? Were they asylum seekers on day release from Villawood?]
What an idiotic comment. You’re just being stupid now JV. A big dummy spit from you is always on the cards.
Careful, BB. Personalising.
[Careful, BB. Personalising.]
You can’t tell me that suggesting the people turned away at the door were “asylum seekers on day release from Villawood” is a sensible comment, can you?
JV wasn’t there. In this case, I was, in person.
Stupid comment.
Spiteful stupidity.
BB. Great that you were there. An honest report of just the numbers. I await your morning reflection on the proceedings.
Breaking
Labor party officials were caught short tonight by the suddenly unleashed charisma of Julia Gillard, in the opening event for the Rooty Hill phase of the election campaign.
Planned as a ‘closed shop’ party event, official were amazed by the local ordinary voters who, having heard of Gillard’s arrival, as one, left their homes, businesses, and social events to demand entry to the speech occasion, all with their wallets out ready to pay membership fees at the door.
With no time to arrange an outdoor screen venue such as those seen at the Olympics and the Australian Open tennis, the organisers were left to simply say to all those disappointed enthusiasts, “Sorry. We must turn you away. Go to your homes. Vote Labor. But there could be a drink at the RSL later.”
Surely they will plan for the charisma overload implications of the PM next time.
Wow this isn’t over.
[BB. Great that you were there. An honest report of just the numbers. I await your morning reflection on the proceedings.]
Already done, but etiquette demands I don’t cross link.
God Grey Army to be at Rooty Hill tomorrow:
[Jacques Laxale, who organised protesters against the carbon tax, said he had asked about 50 people to be at Rooty Hill RSL with their electricity bills and placards at 7am today.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/fury-over-julias-snub-for-suburbs/story-e6freuy9-1226589495102#sthash.hWjB0eWZ.dpuf ]
I hope they DO bring their electricity bills. They can be gone through and the gross errors in Carbon Tax calculations can be pointed out, just like the government did when the Coalition produced similar documents.
They should also bring their pension slips, and group certificates, so they can see how much compensation they’re getting from the lifting of the TFT and increased pensions.
Omi.
Alan Jones has had ample time to organise his troops.
This should be ghastly fun.
BB’s report is over at The PUB. There is quite a few of us who frequent both blogs.
Weekly lunches at News Ltd to discuss the strategy to defeat PMJG? It is a tragedy that i am not even shocked.
1583 …. thank you, Puff
1584 …. The tragedy is all Abbotts. He knows he is headed for a Romney/Fox type Trainwreck.
Good morning
MRRT appeal starts on Wednesday in HC
The submissions of the parties (Plaintiff is Twiggy), (Def is Commonwealth)plus Qld and WA appear here
http://www.hcourt.gov.au/cases/cases_s163-2012
davidwh
Posted Sunday, March 3, 2013 at 11:55 pm | Permalink
I read an article where Turnbull goes into detail about how an Abbott led government will operate with Turnbull’s support. It’s not a bad strategy as it highlights the difference between the two sides.
——————————————-
Not really david
, if turnbull was willing to support newstld would not need to keep reminding people of it
Its an tactic by news ltd to protect abbott from turnbull it shwos newsltd knows liberals are more in a rabble
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
I was uplifted by reading Bushfire Bill’s fantastic coverage of PMJG’s speech event over at the PUB.
So CREDLIN’S CREATURE has lunch every week at News HQ. How surprising.
Some nice types in ths report.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-act-ii-the-miracle-accountant-20130303-2felt.html
Mark Kenny can’t quite bring himself to endorsing the figures that PMJG put out last night.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/a-vote-for-abbott-will-hit-your-hip-pocket-pm-20130303-2fepj.html
This is a substantial and tangible response to gang control. As opposed to Abbott’s platitudinal crap.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/tentative-thumbsup-for-new-crime-bodies-20130303-2felw.html
Barney Zwartz puts lead into Pell’s saddle bags for the papal race.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/most-cardinals-compromised-by-sexabuse-scandal-victims-20130303-2feo8.html
More positives on the NBN.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/nbn-users-report-no-hike-in-bills-20130302-2fd7r.html
Peter FitzSimons with his usual pot pouri.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/give-fred-an-inch-hell-end-up-sen-nile-20130223-2extw.html
Alan Moir excoriates Morriscum.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Pat Campbell looks at Julia’s wardrobe for the Western Syney excursion.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
David Rowe uses West Side Story for his cartoon thos morning.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
before Abbott backstabbed Turnbull News ltd reported Abbott gave turnbull 100% of his support
And Abbott told turnbull , that turnbull would be the leader of the liberals a the 2010 election
next few days Abbot lied and challenge
I can’t stand the stuck up blonde on ABC24. She keeps sneeringly referring to the PM’s “charm offensive in Western Sydney” and how Abbott is “quietly getting on with the job”.
For those who missed It last night, a couple of well connected attendees made it to UWS yesterday. Compare their observations with that of the OldMedia
http://pbxmastragics.com/2013/03/03/among-the-true-believers/
Oh, and confirmation of the weekly visits by Tony Abbott to NewsLtdHQ, for strategy meetings.
And from the Land of the Free –
Mitt Romney sums up his loss.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/03/03/video-serial-loser-romney-we-lost-because-minorities-love-obamacare/
Paul Krugman is all over the sequester.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/03/02/video-paul-krugman-reacts-to-sequester-madness-this-is-not-the-time-to-be-cutting-at-all-oh-and-spending-has-fallen/
Thank you, George W Bush, for installing this dangerous prick on the bench of the Supreme Court.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/03/02/scalia-tips-his-hat-that-supreme-court-will-further-crack-down-on-gun-control/
And this one!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/03/02/chief-justice-roberts-was-wrong-he-misconstrued-census-data-in-voting-rights-argument/
Hypocrisy runs rampant in this organisation.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/03/keith-obrien-cardinal-sex_n_2802073.html
The man who would be our PM is alleged to have regular meetings with the local leaders of a vast multi-national organisation whose UK branch is known to be riddled with corruption and criminality? We probably won’t see that in the Telecrap.
Morning
I am not in the least surprised that Abbott attends weekly meetings with Ltd News. Surprised only that the journo in question volunteered this admission and repeated it for good measure.
I have just turned on the ABC24. Just this very moment. They are running a story about how hard single parents are being hit by the Single Parent Allowance being reduced by up to $100.00 and the UN is now becoming involved.
They have this poor woman being interview in her kitchen. She is complaining about how hard it is.
I think they might have got the wrong “hard hit” single mum.
Have a look at the kitchen. Is that her house? It would have to be – she couldn’t possibly be renting as the rent for a house like that would be huge.
The teenage boys are putting chocolate flavouring on the icecream (I think). Fresh flowers on the counter.
Gee the poor single mum really looks like she is doing it hard. Honestly.
Tweet from Wayne Swan
The max rate of the pension has increased $207 a fortnight for singles & $237 for couples combined over the last
3 ½ yrs #OnlyUnderLabor
jeffemu
Usually kids have two parents, unless one parent has passed away. Where are the questions regarding the financial commitment by both parents in raising their children?
looking at this morning’s compact SMH. Will reserve judgement, but not for too long I suspect.
and why is Tony Abbott trekking out to the RootyHill RSL car park to be interviewed by Karl Stefanovic?
All a bit creepy.
BK… re the blonde bimbo.
She has some serious Piss N Moan Tone form.
She was just interviewing some bloke about how people are not spending their allowance money on pokies and are mmore than likely saving it.
The bimbo in closing says “and probably saving it towards the electricity bills, they are going up and up”