Seat of the week: Capricornia

It took the landslide defeats of the Whitlam and Keating governments to loosen Labor’s grip on the central Queensland seat of Capricornia. The risk of a repeat has increased with the recently announced retirement of sitting member Kirsten Livermore.

The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since federation, with Rockhampton as its constant as boundaries shifted over the years. It currently has Rockhampton at its southern coastal end, from which it extends northwards to the southern outskirts of Mackay and westwards through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando 250 kilometres inland. Rockhampton has kept the seat strong for Labor for most of its history, the party’s only defeats after 1961 coming with the demise of the Whitlam and Keating governments in 1975 and 1996 (the margin on the former occasion being 136 votes).

The proverbial baseball bat having been wielded in 1996, the seat was recovered for Labor in 1998 by Kirsten Livermore, member of the “soft Left” tendency associated with Martin and Laurie Ferguson. Livermore picked up an 8.8% swing on her debut and retained the seat with reasonably comfortable margins thereafter, until an 8.7% swing in 2007 boosted it to very safe territory. Then came a 0.7% redistribution adjustment followed by an 8.4% swing amid the Queensland backlash of 2010, which reined it back to 3.7%. In December 2012 she announced she would not seek another term, as she wished to spend more time with her family.

A preselection to choose Livermore’s successor was held in February and won by Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner, former Belyando Shire mayor and current Isaac Regional councillor. This was despite the local party ballot being won 65-37 by Paul Hoolihan, who along with most of his Labor colleagues lost his seat of Keppel at the 2012 state election. However, Hoolihan was overwhelmed by a 41-9 to win for Freeleagus in the 50% component of the vote determined by the state party’s electoral college, which consists mostly of union delegates. Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that Freeleagus was backed by the Left faction CFMEU, but also harnessed support from the AWU Right at the behest of Wayne Swan. The implication appeared to be that this was a counter to Kevin Rudd, whose “Old Guard” Right faction included Hoolihan. The deal was also said to require that the Left back AWU Right over Old Guard candidates in future state preselections.

The Liberal National Party has again endorsed its candidate from 2010, Michelle Landry, who owns a small book-keeping business in Yeppoon. Landry won preselection ahead of real estate agent Alan Cornick and anti-council amalgamation campaigner Paul Lancaster.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,019 comments on “Seat of the week: Capricornia”

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  3. Actually wondering if Abbott had a strategy meeting with News re stalking the PM in Western Sydney. What plot have they cooked up for this week?

  4. Qanda

    Tonight’s Panel
    Bill Shorten – Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations
    Julie Bishop – Deputy Opposition Leader
    Christine Milne – Leader of the Greens
    Tim Ferguson – Comedian and Senate candidate
    Ruslan Kogan – CEO Kogan

  6. ABC News (RN) and AM (Sabra Lane) in talking about a speech at University of Western Sydney last night keep referring to a “Ms Gillard”.

    I didn’t know who they were talking about but later I heard someone refer to “PM Gillard”.

    Then the coin dropped as to who they were referring to.

    Why have they changed their usual title for this lady, “Gillard”!

  7. Good Morning

    PMJG doing well in Western Sydney so far. You can tell by the increasing shrillness of those opposing her.

  8. Please everyone tweet and shout from the rooftops BB’s revelation/confirmation that Murdoch controls Abbott. I’ve tweeted to Tom Watson Labour UK but every blogger, poster and lurker must SHOUT THIS FROM THE ROOFTOPS. it’s important because it indicates Murdoch’s tentacles really do reach across the english speaking world and makes a mockery of his evidence to the Levenson enquiry that he doesn’t give instructions to his editors and that he seeks to control politics in the USA, UK and especially Australia where he has the most market share.

  10. [jaundiced view
    Posted Monday, March 4, 2013 at 1:15 am | PERMALINK
    Turned away at the door, they were. Turned away? Were they asylum seekers on day release from Villawood?]

    Didn’t know that Scott Morrison was posting on here at night? 😉

  11. victoria

    it wowrth opening a face book account just to get the
    word out,

    but linking it to all those who face book, please link the piece.

    and the photos,

    well no plackards in site,,,, sorry liberal posters

    and before they say it was invite only it was NOT

  19. Silentmajority
    Posted Monday, March 4, 2013 at 8:18 am | PERMALINK
    Please everyone tweet and shout from the rooftops BB’s revelation/confirmation that Murdoch controls Abbottetc}

    Plenty are giving it coverage on Twitter, good idea of yoursre Tom Watson

  21. bluepill

    ‘Borewars has not, I venture, lived in China. I have, I speak the language and have a great number of Chinese friends. I doubt we’ll ever be off to a ground war with them in any of our lifetimes.

    It smacks of conspiracy theory (rife here at PB) and Xenophobia.’

    If bluepill can demonstrate either xenophobia or conspiracy theory in the text below, he ought to do so. If not, he should stop trying to do red herrings from a reasonable concern that Abbott would take us to war at the drop of a hat.

    What I have stated repeatedly is that there are pro- and anti- war factions in both China and Japan. (There are also peace factions- and we should be encouraging those factions). A selection of links below focuses on the China hawks.

    I am so pleased that bluepill has doubts about a ground war. We can all relax.

    My concern is that there is a possibility of a war, either deliberately started by one of the war factions in either China or Japan, or accidental relating to an incident in the Senkaku/Daioyu islands that gets out of hand. (Old hands might recall the Gulf of Tonkin incident and the consequences thereof).

    My related concern is that Abbott belongs to the lengthy tradition of Liberal prime ministers who have taken us to war. We know he likes playing soldiers, literally.

    My strong view is that the ADF should only ever be deployed following debates in both houses and a decision by a joint sitting of both houses. It should definitely not be left to the executive.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/01/18/19-Jan-13-World-View-China-s-directive-to-the-People-s-Liberation-Army-Get-Ready-for-War

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e3765616-647d-11e2-9711-00144feab49a.html#axzz2MVzzduWj

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/17/us-china-hawks-idUSBRE90G00C20130117

  24. 9Jeffemu
    Posted Monday, March 4, 2013 at 8:40 am | PERMALINK
    I’m sharing the pic around as we type

    Are you on twitter if you are what is the handle if you don’t mind? I am “sharing” this on twitter at the moment , to fairfax(fat chance there) and The Guardian etc

  26. BK

    From the article you linked:

    ‘On Sunday, the Catholic church in Scotland issued a statement quoting O’Brien as saying that there had been times “that my sexual conduct has fallen below the standards expected of me as a priest, archbishop and cardinal.”

    “To those I have offended, I apologize and ask forgiveness,” the statement continued. “To the Catholic church and people of Scotland, I also apologize.’

    So, what do we have?

    (1) multiple sexual assaults on subordinates or people for whom the cardinal had a duty-of-care

    (2) attempted coverup of the multiple sexual assaults using his position of power

    (3) following up the sexual assaults by denying them in public, putting the victims in an invidious position and increasing their trauma

    (4) bullying behaviour in the workplace

    (5) lying by the boss to the public.

    So he says he is sorry and then retires. That’s that, then. The bastard belongs in jail, IMHO.

    What did the last two Vatican dictators know about this and what did they do about it, apart from possibly being engaged in a cover up?

  28. In the best standards of PB civilian journalism, we need some independent confirmation that Abbott meets with News Ltd folk once a week.

  29. g

    That is encouraging… but the article also refers to there still being ‘traces’ of HIV virus in the baby.

  30. bw

    Yes. Thus my comment of here is hoping. I treat stories like this with caution. Its like claims for cancer cures. Lots of stories that turn out to be false hope.

  32. Lyndal Curtis speaking to local punters at Rooty Hill.

    ‘Transport is the main issue… don’t know if it’s the state government or Gillard who is in charge of that though’

    ‘My boss said the carbon tax is pushing up prices a lot’

    Ahhhh dear.

  33. ‘Suddenly there is speculation that Jason Clare may not hold Blaxland’.

    No, Melissa Clarke. There isn’t.

  34. Mari … I am not on tweet.

    right click on the image … save image as …. save it into your own computer …. grab it from you own puter and send it around.

    Cheers

  36. dwh

    ‘Boerwar I thought a Tweet was sufficient proof here.’

    Abbott has debased the political landscape with the hundreds of lies he has told in the past four years. Whyalla is still there. The coal industry is still there. The economy is growing. These were not little lies. They were big lies. They were lies he told repeatedly, deliberately and shamelessly.

    This is the man you intend to make prime minister. He is the standout, wrecking, lying LOTO of Australian political history.

    So don’t get on your high horse on standards of evidence.

  37. So apparently Fairfax’s focus group testing showed that SMH/Age readers weren’t fussed about the format as long as the content doesn’t change. I find it hard to believe there was a chorus of “more articles about Rudd please!”

  38. [jeffemu
    Posted Monday, March 4, 2013 at 9:08 am | PERMALINK
    Mari … I am not on tweet.

    right click on the image … save image as …. save it into your own computer …. grab it from you own puter and send it around.

    Cheers]

    Already winging around on twitter :devil:

  39. Jamie Walker has an article in today’s ‘The Australian’, ‘Misery revisited as rain keeps pouring down’.

    Plenty of floods. Plenty of misery. More of it to come.

    Walker manages to avoid even mere speculation that this might possibly somehow be related to anomalously high SSTs around Australia’s shores. Or that the anomalously high SSTs might possibly be linked to AGW.

    This is ‘The Australian’, after all.

  40. As per the relevations posted by BB

    [Post Script: Yes, there is some breaking news… Tony Abbott has lunch at News Ltd HQ every week. Incredulous I asked the person to repeat it.

    “EVERY week, in private,” to discuss the latest “Get Gillard” strategies. No wonder there’s such a seamless segue between what News writes and what Abbott parrots. He’s dealing with the enemy. They’re writing the script for him.

    It’s not a f…..-up. It’s a f…. conspiracy.

    But, sources must remain confidential. I’m not going to tell youse just WHO told us that bit of news.

    I have it on the very highest authority, however, given without hesitation… in fact, volunteered by someone with no ostensible axe to grind, but should should know it to be true. It’s this person’s job to know Abbott’s movements, in detail.]

    For all those who continually harp on the leadership issue, I say It would not matter if a tree stump were leader of the ALP, News Ltd would be out to get them. Simple as that. In fact, there would be few people in the ALP that could have resisted the onslaught as well as PMJG has done to date.

  42. Morning all.

    Just switched on Ch9 and there’s Richo and Vanstone carrying on about how many times the PM has been to Rooty Hill.

    FFS, talk about sweating the small stuff. It seems as though every 3 years the Canberra press gallery discovers there’s life beyond Glebe and report, credulous at the curious folk to be found “out there”.

  43. “@nonstoptom: The Age goes tabloid. Website still shit. Entertainment page features story: “Journalist Peter Harvey Has Days to Live”.”

    @newsbreaker: BREAKING: Italian newspaper @VaticanInsider is reporting that the papal conclave will start on Monday, March 11 – http://t.co/e3boSscEi4

  44. [Jeremy Sear ‏@jeremysear
    @TonyAbbottMHR so you’re at Rooty Hill following the PM around but are still too gutless to debate her directly?]

  46. [In the best standards of PB civilian journalism, we need some independent confirmation that Abbott meets with News Ltd folk once a week.]

    BW, i can confirm. it’s an unnamed senior News Ltd executive.

  47. [For all those who continually harp on the leadership issue, I say It would not matter if a tree stump were leader of the ALP, News Ltd would be out to get them. Simple as that. ]

    Plus the fact that a leadership change would simply make Labor look even more desperate and craven and hand a massive moral victory to the opposition.

  49. [Standards of proof and presumption of innocence are very flexible terms here much of the time Boerwar.]

    gee D, how many unnamed senior Labor MPs you have trusted in the past on #Ruddstoration

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