GhostWhoVotes reports the first Nielsen for the year has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (down five) and 47% for the Coalition (up four) – we’ll have to wait on the Greens. Even worse news for Julia Gillard on personal ratings, with Tony Abbott seizing a 49-45 lead as preferred prime minister compared with 50-40 to Gillard last time, and she trails Kevin Rudd 61% to 35%. However, the latter result is very similar to Abbott’s 58-35 deficit against Malcolm Turnbull. Opinion is divided on whether the parties should actually do anything about it: 52% support Labor changing leaders and 45% don’t (up four and down three), with eerily similar numbers for the Liberals (51% to 46%).
We also had overnight a Galaxy poll of 800 women voters concerning voting intention and attitudes to the leaders. The voting intention figures were 36% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, for a two-party preferred lead to the Coalition of 53-47 – about where you would expect it be when allowing for a 55-45 poll trend, the size of the gender gap in recent years and perhaps a smidgin of house bias in favour of the Coalition on Galaxy’s part. When respondents were asked if they were concerned about Abbott saying “‘no’ to everything”, his views on abortion and “the way he treats women”, abortion recorded the lowest response rate among Labor voters and the highest among Coalition voters (albeit by slight margins in each case). The divide was still wider for the question of whether was Abbott was a misogynist, breaking 44-24 for among Labor voters and 9-69 against among Coalition voters for a total of 25-44. Thirteen per cent of respondents said they were less likely to vote for Gillard because she was unmarried and has no children, and the same number said they were more likely to vote for Abbott for the opposite reasons.
UPDATE (18/2/2013): Essential Research breaks the freefall with the Coalition two-party lead back down to 54-46 after a week at 55-45, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 9%. The poll also finds 56% approval and 22% disapproval for recent thought bubbles about development of northern Australia. Other questions relate drugs in sport, including the eye-opening finding that 52% would approve of a ban on sports betting.
Re media bias…a US example
A cooment from Chomsky
_____________________
http://www.counterpunch.org/
1934pc
Your referring to the 22% of freeloaders I presume!.
How can they be freeloaders if they paid member fees.
dave@4945
You clearly do not understand metaphor.
“Knifed in the back” is a metaphor as is the one I used to indicate she will be removed not by stealth but directly.
Feel free to keep embarrassing yourself. 👿
So, is Ms Milne going to play petty politics with Gonski??
Surely not???
zoidlord
[@bemused/4943
MTBW and Socrates….
So we go from Rudderstation to Labor having Identity Crises ?]
Scapgoat? What on earth are you talking about?
Is no one allowed to have an opinion of their own on here anymore.
Grow up!
I think a lot of the commentary about the Labor “narrative” (whatever the fark that is) confuses the issues of (a) Labor’s traditional and now changing electorate and financial support base and (b) what did or does Labor stand for.
Regarding (a) Labor’s traditional support base was the unions. Unionism in the 21st century is markedly different to what it was in the 20th century, especially in membership ie size of this formal support base is reduced. So of course this shortfall will have to be replaced, and it has and it will continue to be replaced.
The 2PP for Labor in 2010 was well within cooee of what it has always been, despite union membership being so reduced. So personally I don’t self flagellate too much about this aspect. I am confident that within society at least half the population will always align in opposition to conservos, despite the fact that the base is somewhat of a diaspora.
Regarding (b) as I said earlier today, anyone who doesn’t know what Labor stands for in clear contrast to the conservos is stupid or wilfully blind.
And frankly I haven’t the energy to spell it out to such persons other than to say that it relates to social justice and preparing for and investing in the future. Every single one of this government’s policies and actions sit under these two values.
Do those of you who are so concerned about who Labor bats for now that union membership is not so large really think that constituents who would have been unionists yesteryear have now disappeared off the face of the earth or now suddenly and habitually will vote conservo. If this is the case the 2PP in 2010 would never ave gotten near 50% let alone exceed it.
Do you think that the poor, the downtrodden, the aged, the disabled, the homeless, the unemployed, the infirm or any of the many other vulnerable subgroups in society all of whom were traditionally represented by the union movement through their own union membership or by membership of their family members last century, will be supported by and will support the conservos now that union membership is less.
No way. Last century the union and Labor movements represented these people …. they were the workers, the battlers, the unionists. They were Labor’s heartland. They still are. The difference now is that unions don’t represent them because by and large their own support and advocacy networks/forces have emerged and they do the same job.
fractious
Thanks for that post featuring Julie Owens – that is how you sell an arguement.
Is it possible we might have some policy discussion on here, or in-depth discussion on something or are we going to do political tabloid rubbish for the next month? 🙁
deb
an interesting read especially regarding the capabilities of mining and resource companies. I supposed we’re blessed here that they’re not having to murder the population like they do in Colombia
@1934pc
[Using ABS figures, there has been a drop in % of union members from 40% to 18% in the last 20 years.
Your referring to the 22% of freeloaders I presume!.]
Worse than that, 42 per cent covered by EBAs only 18 per cent union members so 24 per cent PLUS the 16 per cent covered by awards (as unions pretty much advocate for award changes/increases) so a free loader proportion of 40 per cent!
[ bemused
Posted Wednesday, February 22, 2012 at 6:50 pm | Permalink
Well it will be fascinating to watch the reaction of all the Rudd haters on PB in coming weeks.
You clearly do not understand metaphor.
“Knifed in the back” is a metaphor as is the one I used to indicate she will be removed not by stealth but directly. ]
Actually you said Now Rudd will return and she will get an axe right between the eyes. And the public will cheer.
No mention of a knife.
No mention of a metaphor, until now over a year later.
You really need to fix this enormous blunder.
Just withdraw the comment unreservedly and that will be the end of it.
Given your senior position in your branch you really need to fix this.
How can they be freeloaders if they paid member fees.?
If they have left or never been in a union, their FREELOADERS
Some people cannot think STRAIGHT!.
@MTBW/4955
I’m not the one who needs growing up.
[Thanks for that post featuring Julie Owens – that is how you sell an arguement.]
MTBW
It’s also a good way to expose the lack of depth of the media.
It was all Bligh’s fault, now it is the Federal Govt’s fault. Will Newman ever take responsibility for his actions?
[
POWER bills are set to skyrocket by more than 20 per cent, adding hundreds of dollars to the average annual electricity bill.
The Courier-Mail can reveal the the Queensland Competition Authority will recommend a 21.4 per cent increase in power prices in 2013/14.
The increase would add $428 to an annual power bill of about $2000.
The Newman Government will later today reveal how it plans to reduce the impact of the massive power price hike after promising an era of cost of living relief.]
Its plans are already revealed, blame everyone else.
Aside from the political leanings of the god fearing CEO, this seems to be a dominant factor driving the ABC and (indeed) anyone who works in the media. F.U.D over the NBN hits these people right on their most vulnerable part: their career.
The NBN will decimate Big Media, for all the right reasons. The FUD associated with this cannot be underestimated, especially for ABC employees with an eye for the future – what are their options if they leave the ABC, given the vindictive nature of News and Fairfax towards prospective employees? Best to show your media-mogul-friendly credentials at all times….
“We’ll all be rooned” is contagious…..and it’s easy to propagate FUD about the NBN because many (most?) do not understand the technologies and (consequently) do not see the vast benefits to business and govt services (health, education etc) made possible via the NBN.
Media employees compare their future under Labor with their future under Abbott and they see a man willing to do the bidding of Big Media. Abbott is Their Guy.
This doesnt need to be said aloud or even “thought aloud”. It’s already implicit in the groupthink and it’s instinctive/primal.
@Geoff
[1934pc
Your referring to the 22% of freeloaders I presume!.
How can they be freeloaders if they paid member fees.]
Freeloaders=employees who benefit from union action without being a member.
Although there was a movement to introduce ‘bargaining fees’ for non members after an EBA increase
Psyclaw,
That is a good point that people who were in unions don’t suddenly start voting for rightwing crackpots after they leave the union (possibly to retire).
Dr Fumbles.
Are not they traditionally called scabs?
So if they were a member and paid fees then left. What are they freeloading?
Is Dio about?
BK
And she showed the exasperation in her face. Good on her!
@ Geoff
The decline in membership was over 20+ years
To spare himself further self-inflicted embarrassment, here are some further things Dave ought not take offence to because they’re “metaphors”.
“The decline in membership was over 20+ years”
What has this got to do with being a freeloader? And freeloading what?
@Dr Fumbles.
[Are not they traditionally called scabs?]
Of course depends how stong the union is, any non-member on a CFMEU site would be a a scab!
Anyhow scabs are typically non union members who actually come onto site to replace union members particular in times of industrial action remember the Dubai trained NFF Stevdores anyone??
Freeloaders are just your ordinary workers in the workplace who cannot be bothered to join the union but take what the union negotiates.
William Bowe
The second link is 403 Verboten
Zoidlord
Bet I have lived many more years than you have.
In our day we were taught to treat people with respect and to respect the fact that everyone doesn’t agree on everything.
That is life!
[ Mr Pajama Pudding
Posted Friday, February 22, 2013 at 3:13 pm | Permalink
The NBN will decimate Big Media, for all the right reasons. The FUD associated with this cannot be underestimated ]
It cannot be stopped either. Best they can hope for is to delay it.
If abbott wins and downgrades/ delays the NBN it will also hasten his demise.
Same with retailing – they are not going to retain the margins they have grown fat and complacent with. Those days are gone even if GST ends up being applied under a tory government.
Someone somewhere in the world in more than willing to sell at a competitive price and probably throw in free postage as well.
Geoff see my 4976 for freeloader definition
Geoff!
What has this got to do with being a freeloader? And freeloading what?
You need to get your looked at!.
bemused
[“Knifed in the back” is a metaphor as is the one I used to indicate she will be removed not by stealth but directly.]
“an axe right between the eyes” is not the sort of language one typically applies to a person whom you’ve been keen to reassure Bludgers recently you hold nothing against personally. Why else would you choose such an extremely violent metaphor to describe the act? I can almost picture you swinging it yourself, and with some delight.
Yes. I do think it is possible for large subgroups that would have supported the ALP in the past to vote for the LNP because the LNP are promising prosperity and stability. The LNP are mostly bullshitting but that is not the point.
We are not the USA, but the Republicans have done a very good job convincing chunks of the downtrodden, the poor, the aged that they have the economic answers, and a similar strategy looks like it is being successfully deployed here.
They were but that is less and less the case and I see no reason why this trend won’t continue.
The “workers” in the traditional sense are disappearing because of the structural shifts in the economy. They aint coming back.
The “battlers” have been convinced that the LNP can deliver them prosperity and their McMansion and freedom from guilt.
The “unionists” are now a small proportion of society.
Hawke and Keating irrevocably changed the structure of society. Those changes are still working their way through the system. One of those changes is that the ALP’s traditional constituency is disappearing. That the ALP have picked up other voters based on being a moderate party, is neither here nor there.
Would you stay a member of an organisation that provided money to a sect or cult that you disagreed with?
Would you not then class that group that received the money a freeloading organisation.
Geoff
“Would you not then class that group that received the money a freeloading organization.”
DUH!.
@Jackol
And the other split with the traditional radical/idealist/urban latte set constituency going off to the Greens
Geoff!
What has this got to do with being a freeloader? And freeloading what?
You need to get your looked at!.
lol. So what doctor do I go to to get looked at?
Geoff
“Would you not then class that group that received the money a freeloading organization.”
DUH!.
So I take it you agree?
The freeloaders are those officials who abuse their trust and use the members monies for their own personal use. We come across a few of those lately.
By the way, those who think the CT has any potency in relation to electricity prices, at least over here in the Golden West, Labor has been hammering away over the 62% increase in electricity prices in the time of the Barnett government.
During the debate, when this was thrown at Barnett he did not mention – once – any connection between the CT and electricity prices.
The debate centred around whether the prices would go up another 5% “in line with inflation” and what McGowan would do under the circumstances.
The total discrediting of the Abbott/media attack via the CT has been totally ignored. All those pathetic whinging, whining ads, all those ‘convoys’, all those stupid comments about $100 Sunday roasts by Joyce and the demise of Whyalla – found to be totally hollow, and nothing more than gut reaction stuff.
Shame on the media for not coughing up to its shameless ill-thought-out position and its general lack of reasoned response.
In some respects, the sooner pulp papers are given away rather than sold and companies like Fairfax discover that half the population does not want crap stuff – same applies to Murdoch’s lot in spades – the better.
It is not a case of blaming the media for the message it is a matter of the media thinking they should fashion the agenda. By and large journalists have lost the fine distinction between reporting and making commentary.
Old Auntie BBC gets it in the neck, but when one listens to the BBC and the news is one, one tends to get a straight report of the facts – little or no interpretation – and then, in clearly indicated segments, commentary takes place and it is tough going. Same applies on-line.
It is no surprise, despite having its ups and downs, that the BBC is “trusted” and the conservatives hate it.
Shame the ABC can’t do it better.
davidwh
Who is to blame for today’s 20%+ electricity rate rise?
Geoff
How old are YOU!.
See 4976!.
[And the other split with the traditional radical/idealist/urban latte set constituency going off to the Greens]
What do you have against lattes? We’re not in America where Starbucks is seen as some elite inner-city lefty thing, and “real people” drink drip coffee or something else. All kinds of Australians drink lattes.
DWH
The freeloaders are those officials who abuse their trust and use the members monies for their own personal use. We come across a few of those lately.
Stop confusing the issue!.
@Geoff
No you are a freeloader if you disagree with the union/resign but then greedily take you wage increase when it is EBA time – oh an also complain if it is not enough.
Tony loves his Mocha Lattes.
Geoff
How old are YOU!.
See 4976!.
haha Maybe read what I asked.
How about I ask it a different way. Why would people want to join an organisation that provide money to another entity that they do not agree with?
Now Rudd will return and she will get an axe right between the eyes. And the public will cheer.
You clearly do not understand metaphor.
Come back Alan Jones. All is forgiven. Putting Julia Gillard in a chaff bag and throwing her out to sea was a metaphor…
@1934pc
[
DWH
The freeloaders are those officials who abuse their trust and use the members monies for their own personal use. We come across a few of those lately.
Stop confusing the issue!.]
Thats not freeloading it is just corruption
psyclaw@4956
My understanding of a “narrative” is an overarching framework in which all the individual policies fit to make a coherent program for government.
If this is not done, then good policies can be mis-represented as a chaotic jumble of though bubbles.
For example, NBN links in to a whole lot of other policy initiatives such as e-health, productivity growth, economic growth etc.
NBN is good on its own, but tied to the other policy initiatives it is compelling.
That’s my take on it and I will be interested in what others think.