GhostWhoVotes reports the first Nielsen for the year has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (down five) and 47% for the Coalition (up four) – we’ll have to wait on the Greens. Even worse news for Julia Gillard on personal ratings, with Tony Abbott seizing a 49-45 lead as preferred prime minister compared with 50-40 to Gillard last time, and she trails Kevin Rudd 61% to 35%. However, the latter result is very similar to Abbott’s 58-35 deficit against Malcolm Turnbull. Opinion is divided on whether the parties should actually do anything about it: 52% support Labor changing leaders and 45% don’t (up four and down three), with eerily similar numbers for the Liberals (51% to 46%).
We also had overnight a Galaxy poll of 800 women voters concerning voting intention and attitudes to the leaders. The voting intention figures were 36% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, for a two-party preferred lead to the Coalition of 53-47 – about where you would expect it be when allowing for a 55-45 poll trend, the size of the gender gap in recent years and perhaps a smidgin of house bias in favour of the Coalition on Galaxy’s part. When respondents were asked if they were concerned about Abbott saying “‘no’ to everything”, his views on abortion and “the way he treats women”, abortion recorded the lowest response rate among Labor voters and the highest among Coalition voters (albeit by slight margins in each case). The divide was still wider for the question of whether was Abbott was a misogynist, breaking 44-24 for among Labor voters and 9-69 against among Coalition voters for a total of 25-44. Thirteen per cent of respondents said they were less likely to vote for Gillard because she was unmarried and has no children, and the same number said they were more likely to vote for Abbott for the opposite reasons.
UPDATE (18/2/2013): Essential Research breaks the freefall with the Coalition two-party lead back down to 54-46 after a week at 55-45, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 9%. The poll also finds 56% approval and 22% disapproval for recent thought bubbles about development of northern Australia. Other questions relate drugs in sport, including the eye-opening finding that 52% would approve of a ban on sports betting.
“@ABCNews24: Men’s 4x100m freestyle relay team including @JamesMagnussen_ & @Eamon_Sullivan addressing media LIVE now http://t.co/3YXdj8bPNi”
Dave
Using ABS figures, there has been a drop in % of union members from 40% to 18% in the last 20 years.
Head honcho of Swimming Australia is a very, very nervous man at the presser.
Julie Owens (ALP Parramatta) kicks an MSM tool into touch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqek48WWpRk
Apologies if it’s been posted before, but really ALP MPs need to do more of this.
BK
He’ll be very lucky to keep his job. Clearly he has farmed up big time and lied as well. As well as wasting about $100M taxpayers money for a dud swimming team. Someone s head has to roll.
DR
[A lot of Australians don’t know what the Labor party stands for anymore because Labor has embraced so many policies of the traditional right that make them look like a bad copy of the Liberal Party, and a few policies of the traditional left, which make them look like a half-baked copy of the Greens. The result is a party that, to the general, disengaged voting public, just doesn’t seem to stand for anything or anyone anymore.]
Interesting. Is government about leading or managing. I guess both. The whole “Doesn’t Stand For Anything” really is a crock. It’s easy to say. But it means nothing.
I can only speak for myself. I joined the ALP because it is the party of fairness – about giving everyone a go and a hnd when they need it. The people I know in the ALP largely believe in the same values. It is truly a moderate party underscored by core values of fairness and progress. And it also is a party capable of great government.
The Greens are a fringe party.
I don’t know what the Liberal Party stands for. All I know is what it does in office. And I generally don’t like what it does.
Diogenes@4896
The unions were huge back then and they had a huge say in the ALP. Whole industrial towns and regions were totally Labor as people knew when they ran into trouble who would help them.
What did menzies actually achieve in all those years in power? What did he build, what did he do to prepare our nation for the future ?
I recall someone here posting an interview clip many years ago now, Menzies was asked the same question, a couple of years after he retired and he struggled to answer it himself.
He started a limited number of Commonwealth Scholarships true – but those were totally left for dead compared to the opening up of all avenues of education by Gough.
To be fair to Menzies – he got Lake Burley Griffith built as well.
Pretty poor performance really.
DIog
High profile sport is having a real time of it lately.
I can understand team “bonding” but it seems absurd to have a review of it and try to express how well you’ve bonded, which seems roughly what Kowalski said then.
I’m turning off this presser. It’s all a “we done nothing wrong” attempt at a whitewash.
Diogenes@4894
So am I.
I’m saying union dominance of the ALP has and is diminishing. Its nowhere near what it was historically.
It’s like scripted bonding, as though that’s going to work. Any way of doing it where you think, “Okay, this is where we are bonding now” seems ridiculous.
Rummel 4865
“Strange, but crank sounds normal on PB as the left voters are sounding shrill, panic driven and blaming ever man and his Rudd for Labors dire position.”
Lol good one.
DRinMelb@4896
That may well change under abbott as PM. There are consequences to votes as Queenslanders are finding out.
The irony is there has never been more information available to help people weigh the issues to help them arrive at a decision.
Jackol
Good summary. And a good example.
[Let’s take the handling of the MDB. This has almost nothing to do with “rights of blue collar workers”. So how should the ALP respond? Is it going to be prioritizing rural communities dependent on agriculture, or is it going to be prioritizing environmental outcomes? Well, frankly, there was no way for us to know because the ALP doesn’t really come from any of these backgrounds and isn’t known as a champion of either. In the end, unsurprisingly, the ALP was almost entirely reactive about the MDB. Something had to be done, but what was done was mostly a shambles and a result of random political pressures. A little bit for everyone but no concept of an overriding plan or goal beyond making the issue go away.]
The conservative parties, determined to break the back of the unions, have gone a long way towards breaking the base of the ALP. As they aimed to do.
Diogenes@4902
I don’t dispute that. Many non union members in the workforce get the benefits that unions have striven for and are today taken for granted. They don’t need to be union members and others have moved up the greasy pole etc and unions are not their ‘thing’.
I’m saying as well that unions power in the ALP is not as dominate as it once was. Its still strong though – why wouldn’t it be.
News reports were about bullying and other behaviour. Stillnox tablet being talked about was only trigger for this one night.
[Using ABS figures, there has been a drop in % of union members from 40% to 18% in the last 20 years.]
Yes, as a result of collective bargaining being restricted to the enterprise level here in Australia (initiated 20 years ago by the Keating Government’s Industrial Relations Act).
Restricting bargaining to the enterprise level makes it impossible for unions to spread gains from strongly-represented workforces across to those with little or no representation. Empirical studies show a direct correlation between union density and bargaining levels, all around the world. We are the only western liberal democracy which prohibits workers from bargaining at an industry or economy-wide level, and that is the reason for the fall in union density in Australia.
The Conservatives in Australia take the view that a free market entitles employers to bargain with their employees without interference from unions. They do not think that a free market includes the freedom of workers to collect with other workers in order to strengthen the bargaining position. The Coalition is unlikely, in my view, to again advocate individual bargaining (as under WorkChoices) because they really don’t have to – by driving the ability of unions to negotiate down to the enterprise level, successive government’s of both persuasions have already effectively set the unions on a dwindling path.
I do not think the media pack is happy at all.
“..admitted to taking Stilnox” the subtitle says. Should be “..admitted taking Stilnox”.
This is a workplace incident should Fair Work Australia have a role?
PMJG on 24 now
[PMJG on 24 now]
The trouble is she’s talking about policy, so it won’t get reported.
triton
It will. When they find a way to make it a fight between Labor and Greens.
can someone please advise the ABC News 24 mob that it is becoming blatantly obvious when the line keeps dropping out.
Only seems to happen on a senior Labor Minister of sometimes the PMJG making some form of announcement.
I can’t remember the last time the line dropped out on a Piss n Moan Tones door stoppers or sloppy joe having a squeal.
Just saying … before the line drops out.
sustainable future @ 4787 says it for me
I think the Gillard Government has had (or tried to have) a stronger ‘Labor-values’ narrative than the party has had since the 1980s. The Super profits tax, carbon pricing, NDIS, Education reforms and investment, NBN, closing tax loop-holes for the wealthy, greater means testing of middle class welfare, etc have been very true to the party. Pity about their xenophobic pandering on AS – I guess they could argue they’ve gone back to Arthur Caldwell on that side of things. Overall – they are trying to govern for more than the top end of town – hence the campaigns against them. Their narrative in not being heard (or only being heard to be attacked) because of the ruthless campaign by the Australian and SKY and the vacuousness of the weakened ABC and fairfax media
Why are so few commentators here stating this obvious fact? Murdoch is determined that the very capable Gillard and her effective government will go before its clear narrative begins to take hold via the Guardian’s readership once established and continues its spread throughout the blogosphere, amongst we of the fifth estate who know first hand that we are enjoying a sound economy and good government.
Instead of joining the chorus of critics which lends strength to Murdoch’s campaign to foil the NBN we should be urging Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Caucus to stand firm in this phony war against her.
@Jake
[Yes, as a result of collective bargaining being restricted to the enterprise level here in Australia (initiated 20 years ago by the Keating Government’s Industrial Relations Act).]
Up until recently you could have multi employer bargaining but with individual employer agreements – that was and still is the whole pattern bargaining issue. So we had the big CFMEU bargaining round, AMWU and so on.
Of course the conservatives would love to kill it off totally but unions are hard to kill.
Why does ABC 24 cut out from any of these things? If Tones or Hockey are having a press conference that starts a bit later, record it and show it in full after the PM or Minister is done. Not everything has to be real time, certainly not random speeches from random politicians – “Oh noes Tones is delayed by 15 minutes! How will I know if he’s changed his mind since he said this?
@ Jake
To be pedantic it was the Keating Government’s Industrial Relations reform Act 1993.
This was a huge step forward in IR, along with formal enterprise bargaining it has unfair dismissal protections so a true watershed.
dave@4879
No dave, shame on you.
You are an absolute disgrace the way you carry on just because someone presents a realistic view you don’t like.
[Up until recently you could have multi employer bargaining but with individual employer agreements – that was and still is the whole pattern bargaining issue. So we had the big CFMEU bargaining round, AMWU and so on.
Of course the conservatives would love to kill it off totally but unions are hard to kill.]
Fair enough, but, in relative terms, the percentage of Australian workers covered by collective agreements is still very low and union density continues to decline. Compare that to Germany, with economy-wide bargaining, high union density and high productivity.
Actually, I think union density may have risen slightly in recent years..?
Fantastic speech from the Prime Minister today re Gonski – brutally realistic
Tragic that the corrupted news media will largely ignore it.
4899
Diogenes
[I’m going to stick up for the much disparaged “low information voters” of Australia.
Why should they spent their precious time looking at policy when it would be better used on their kids, or leisure or whatever. They know it makes no practical difference.]
That is a truly idiotic comment, that plays straight into the hands of the reactionary hard right anti-democratic forces that increasingly threaten our country.
What you are saying is that voters have no responsibility to make at least some effort to inform themselves about the real choices at election time, and that any attempt by them to do so is foolish waste of their time, which, apparently, is always more profitably spent playing a social game of cricket at the local park.
If your logic is followed through, then they might as well not bother voting at all, and just leave it all to self-appointed philosopher-kings like, oh, Tony Abbott, to decide on our behalf, with no right of appeal.
Phuq that.
The line between scepticism and cynicism is a fine but very important one. You are waaaaaay over on the wrong side of that line on this occasion.
I find it particularly galling as you no doubt are quite materially comfortable and socially secure, and are likely to remain so under hard right government. A lot of others are not so well placed and protected.
Very, very disappointed to hear that drivel from you.
Some serious penury and disenfranchisement is the bitter medicine that I prescribe for you to correct those flippant delusions.
bemused@4930
I’m not the one who has given in, declared and accepted defeat with months to go before the election.
Thats far more realistic than you or TT.
You talk about disgrace ? Your reflex howling anytime the name rudd is mentioned is a disgrace.
Now take that avatar down and support a united attempt to get Labor re-elected!
Wayne Swan @SwannyDPM
Today I announced there will be a post-election audit of each party’s election costings http://goo.gl/McMiJ
Wayne Swan @SwannyDPM
It will avoid a situation we saw last election where the Liberal Party thought they could con the Australian people http://goo.gl/h7aeC
Wayne Swan @SwannyDPM
Opp say they’ve ‘nothing to fear’ from this new audit – we’re all looking forward to them now releasing their costs #pigsmightfly
Socrates
[I think Waleed Ally is corredct in his comments about Labor’s (lack of) ideology crisis:
There are too many careerists in Labor whose only commitment is to achieving re-election. They reflexively tell themselves that Labor in power is good, so any act to achieve re-election is morally justified.]
Spot on well said you have hit the nail on the head.
That video of julie Owens at the health centre was gold. Itis a pity there isn’t a camera pointing the other way so we could see he faces of the hacks on the end of that spray.
dave@4935
No dave, shame on you.
You are an absolute disgrace the way you carry on just because someone presents a realistic view you don’t like.
I’m not the one who has given in, declared and accepted defeat with months to go before the election.
Thats far more realistic than you or TT.
You talk about disgrace ? Your reflex howling anytime the name rudd is mentioned is a disgrace.
Now take that avatar down and support a united attempt to get Labor re-elected!
Pardon, who has given in? I certainly haven’t.
But I know the path to victory does not lie through self delusion.
BTW, I have not mentioned R*dd today and it is really curious that the ones who mention him most are the haters. A truly bitter and twisted lot.
TT I have read on here is an elderly ALP member or supporter from South Australia.
Stick to the financial stuff, you are good at that and worth reading.
@Jake
[Fair enough, but, in relative terms, the percentage of Australian workers covered by collective agreements is still very low and union density continues to decline. Compare that to Germany, with economy-wide bargaining, high union density and high productivity.]
Percentage covered by collective agreements is actually very high – unlike the US you dont need to be a union member to benefit from bargaining in the workplace
From ABS May 2012 Employee Earnings and Hours
[The most common methods of setting pay for all employees in May 2012 were collective agreement (42.0%) and individual arrangement (38.7%). Award only was the least common method of setting pay (16.1%).]
Union density has actually rebounded but very slightly after a long period of decline – reason why, impact of workchoices. At last look the absolute numbers increased and density increased but very slightly.
The European model of high value/involvement and thus productivity has alot going for it – unfortunately the result is higher wages and in the current environment $ savings is king.
Here’s my gravatar in action. He would have been into his nineties at the time.
http://tinyurl.com/a5rha7f
MTBW@4938
Read Socrates @ 4716 – great post.
Rummel
” labor stink to high heaven and in a democratic election labor is going to be tossed by the people, not the media.”
If you think that, your brain is addled!.
[ bemused
Posted Friday, February 22, 2013 at 2:45 pm | Permalink
But I know the path to victory does not lie through self delusion.
BTW, I have not mentioned R*dd today and it is really curious that the ones who mention him most are the haters. A truly bitter and twisted lot.
TT I have read on here is an elderly ALP member or supporter from South Australia.
Stick to the financial stuff, you are good at that and worth reading. ]
Right – the haters. A truly bitter and twisted lot.
An example of a hater below – A lifetime Labor member posting the following vile stuff on a public website.
Thats hate write LARGE !
[bemused
Posted Wednesday, February 22, 2012 at 6:50 pm | Permalink
Well it will be fascinating to watch the reaction of all the Rudd haters on PB in coming weeks.
Now Rudd will return and she will get an axe right between the eyes. And the public will cheer. ]
@bemused/4943
MTBW and Socrates….
So we go from Rudderstation to Labor having Identity Crises ?
ROFL…
Most pathetic escape goat excuses ever.
The only people that have this issue is the media and the Coalition.
For example, Peter Dutton screaming in a hurry for NBN to be connected in his electorate while his party leader working to destroy the NBN.
[Most pathetic escape goat excuses ever.]
Yeah, I thought Rudd was going to be PM again by today?
Or was it next week?
Or the week after that?
Or the we———-
Re unthinking voters
___________
Eleanor Roosevelt wife of FDR once said something to the effect that “thinking ” voters are interested in ideas and policies…but the unthinking are content to think of personalities
How oftenm does one hear an unthinking voter say” Oh I don’t like Politician X” when they don’t know anytong of him, or her..th…ey don’t like her accent or her hairstyle or her dresss which bears out Eleanor R’s statement
“Using ABS figures, there has been a drop in % of union members from 40% to 18% in the last 20 years.”
Your referring to the 22% of freeloaders I presume!.
Aww man I need to get me one of those escape goats.