Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition; Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition

Newspoll records a blowout in the Coalition’s poll lead, while Galaxy delivers a par-for-the-course first result for the year.

UPDATE: Now we have Newspoll as well, and it’s Labor’s worst result since July: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down six), 48% for the Coalition (up four) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The poll also has Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister all but vanishing, down from 45-33 to 41-39. Gillard is down two points on approval to 36% and up three on disapproval to 52%, while Tony Abbott is up four to 33% and down two to 56%.

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll to be published tomorrow shows the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred. The primary votes are 35% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Tony Abbott does unusually well on personal ratings relative to Julia Gillard, with 36% satisified and 57% dissatisfied against 38% and 57% for Gillard. Fifty-five per cent say the election should be held in September against 38% who want an election now. As is all too often the case with Galaxy, a further question seems to have been set as bait for anti-government headlines in the News Limited tabloids which publish the poll. In this case, respondents were asked if they believed Julia Gillard’s explanation for announcing the election date, rather than the more obvious question of whether they approved of her doing it. Trust in politicians being what it is, this came in at 53% for no and 41% for yes, which if anything is surprisingly high. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1015, for the usual margin of error of around 3%.

UPDATE (5/2/13): Essential Research, reporting a day later than usual, has Labor down a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, down now to 34%, its lowest since September. However, the Coalition and the Greens are unchanged at 48% and 10%, with the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead likewise steady at 54-46.

UPDATE (6/2/13): Morgan published a result from last weekend’s face-to-face polling while I wasn’t looking, and it has the aggregate major party vote returning to normal after a slump in the poll for the previous two weekends. Labor is up 2.5% to 38.5% while the Coalition is up 3.5% to 42.5%, with the Greens down 3.5% to 8.5%. That pans out to a slight gain for the Coalition on two-party preferred, extending their lead from 50.5-49.5 to 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and reversing a 50.5-49.5 deficit on the previous election measure.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,388 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition; Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. zoomster
    Posted Saturday, February 9, 2013 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    Right. So ModLib supports the Liberals because they have better economic policies, even though he says they haven’t got any, and then calls everyone else one eyed.

    Supporting a party because of the policies it doesn’t have would have to be the definiton of partisan.

    It’s a bizarre situation, but perhaps there is some human trait that prefers no policy to what we have.

    Look at one of Essential’s surveys a while back. According to that a majority preferred the Liberals on health policy. Presumably that meant that they’d rather have none than what we have.

    It stayed in my mind because Dutton, their health spokesman hasn’t managed to announce a single policy to the best of my knowledge. He is to vision and policy development what Truss is to charisma.

    His only claim to fame seems to be the number of times he is thrown out of parliament for rude interjections.


  2. Just a warning, tomorrow’s Daily TelaLie has a “tell all” expose with Jamie Packer including what Kerry said to him in his last phone call.

    The humanisation of billionaires, in this case one making his profits from gambling, is in progress.

    sprocket_@6198


    .

    Tis called balance…

    Obeid used to call the shots…now its back to the packers.

    murdoch is salivating to stick his bub in should his puppet abbott get up.

    Note Labor people : This are the arsewipes we ALL need to oppose.

    Not each other!

  3. Matty D
    [

    As for the NBN, no bloody idea, I am only in my early 20s and haven’t a clue about how it will work,….. I will say, though, that Labor is sure to spend way more than necessary on ]
    Can you spot the problem there ?

  4. To answer the quest is this site full of labor hacks?

    No, this site is full of people that are interested in politics, sure this site has overtime drifted to the left but that is due to a few Liberals being banned or departing (not sure how to spell that in German)

    The only reason this site may appear more to the left than otherwise would be the case relates to the policy positions taken by Tone and co.

    If the Liberals under Tone were truly a sound alternative then this blog would be more balanced.

    I will admit that this site is at times very different to that found in the outside world, pretty much the only fans of Jules can be found here 😉

  5. MB

    PB hasn’t drifted to the left, at least in the 6 years I have been here. It’s always been predominantly Labor with a smattering of Greens, indies and Libs.

    I don’t remember a National, FF or Hansonite.

  6. Diogenes

    True it has always been left but over time the number of Liberals posting here has declined while pretty much all the ALP ones are still around.

    The only poster that could have been classed as a Hansonite was The-Truth-Hurts.

    Glen and GP haven been seen here for a long time unless they are posting under a different name.

  7. [BK IMHO George Brandis is a low rent version of Francis Uruqart. Evil to the core, but none pf Uruqart’s charm.]

    Rossmore,

    In the pure evil stakes, I reckon Francis was a little boy compared to his wife, Elizabeth, and her squeeze, Corder.

  8. [@sundayteleed: @tonyabbottmhr bails in TV spot and bans @TurnbullMalcolm as well. Why? find out in Sunday Tele tomorrow #auspol]

    Something fishy going on

  9. [I don’t remember a National]

    We recently had an 81yo National woman member from some god-forsaken place, who turned out to be ShowsOn sockpuppeting.

    Does that count? 😀

  10. Glen was here the other day – his handle now is ‘Gary Sparrow”.

    At least, I assumed it was Glen – there might be a real Gary Sparrow out there…

  11. mexicanbeemer,

    Doesn’t matter if they are banned all not they ALL sing from a different hymn sheet initially then run around like chooks with their heads cut off trying to cover it up.

  12. [oes anyone know if this was ShowsOn ?]

    😆

    Was it a Nationals voting 80+yo woman from the back of beyond?

    😆 Love it poroti.

  13. poroti@6218


    Does anyone know if this was ShowsOn ?

    An allegedly “belligerent” 90-year-old man got in a fight with bar staff and punched a bouncer, before taking several swings at police who came to break up the scuffle in Canberra in the early hours of the morning.


    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/90yearold-man-on-assault-charges-20130209-2e4or.html#ixzz2KOjhGjin

    Was it Friday night ‘speed dating’ in CBR 🙂

    But no mention of a Zimmer frame?

  14. Zoomster thanks for reminding me Glen changed his name sometime ago

    SK true many of the Libs have popped in and dropped a few chants with only a handful of them actually making the attempt to put a few sentences together.

  15. Matty from someone who has managed to survive PB for a reasonable time my advice to you is not to generalize about members. There are certainly more Labor supporters here than other party supporters however the Laborites are far from an united group. There are a few Greens and a few Libs and one person who is different to everyone else and shouts a lot.

    Just jump in boots and all but be prepared to be challenged strongly and above all wear armour. But you need to be patient.

  16. MattyD
    Sorry buddy you are on the wrong site.
    This site is like RSVP.com for pro Labor rusted ons.
    They think Obeid, Thomson, McDonald, Kelly, Pelluzano, Brian Burke ( Micael Williamson ALP National President 2009) , Gordon Nuttall and many more are OK because they are not Liberal.
    They think Liberals are amoebic toxins ( about six million Australians at any time)
    Who do they trust? Why Labor of course.
    If on the other hand you believe in Unicorns this is the site for you in Crikey world The ABC is a veritable right wing enterprise, Michelle Grattan is a liberal stooge, Chris Uhlmann ( married to Federal ALP member Gai Brodtman) is a pro Liberal hack.
    If you think Lee Rhiannon is in the centre of Australian politics this site is for you alas Lavartus Prodeo is dead so you get their old leftovers ( Hi Fran).
    However if you are actually interested in polls this and Mumble are the best sites and there are a lot of smart people here like Kevin Bonham, Psephos, Diogenes etc as well as clever party loyalists like Bemused, Greensborough Growler but you also get a bunch of total irrationalism tripe mixed in plus the pro Liberal teasers like Mod Lib, Rummel etc.
    Good Luck!

  17. [6226
    Rossmore
    Posted Saturday, February 9, 2013 at 9:56 pm | PERMALINK
    Sprocket yes I agree. There was the Abbott story re the convicted paedophile earlier this week in News media. Very fishy…]

    And of course the TroppoTony Beatup, photoshop and all.Surely Loyal old Rupert couldn’t be getting ready to bone Abbott?

  18. DavidWH and Stanny make fair points for it is a good place to test ideas or if you hear something in the street but not sure if its true or want more information then this is a good place to find out.

  19. I see, like that is it. A young conservative joins and you all hound on him instead of being mature and welcoming. And you know why? Because you’re gutless, all of you, gutless!

  20. Besides Fran has anyone else come here from LP?

    and one other point to MattyD read a copy of the book The Fifth Estate by Grog (his old PB name and name of his excellent blog)

  21. poroti@6218


    Does anyone know if this was ShowsOn ?

    An allegedly “belligerent” 90-year-old man got in a fight with bar staff and punched a bouncer, before taking several swings at police who came to break up the scuffle in Canberra in the early hours of the morning.


    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/90yearold-man-on-assault-charges-20130209-2e4or.html#ixzz2KOjhGjin

    Could explain why he hasn’t been around for a while. Visiting Canberra and enjoying the night life. 😉

  22. stanny@6230


    MattyD
    Sorry buddy you are on the wrong site.
    However if you are actually interested in polls this and Mumble are the best sites and there are a lot of smart people here like Kevin Bonham, Psephos, Diogenes etc as well as clever party loyalists like Bemused, Greensborough Growler but you also get a bunch of total irrationalism tripe mixed in plus the pro Liberal teasers like Mod Lib, Rummel etc.
    Good Luck!

    Insult me any way you like, but I really must draw the line at being lumped in with Greensborough Growler! 😡

  23. They think Obeid, Thomson, McDonald, Kelly, Pelluzano, Brian Burke ( Micael Williamson ALP National President 2009) , Gordon Nuttall and many more are OK because they are not Liberal.
    They think Liberals are amoebic toxins ( about six million Australians at any time)
    Who do they trust? Why Labor of course.
    If on the other hand you believe in Unicorns this is the site for you in Crikey world The ABC is a veritable right wing enterprise, Michelle Grattan is a liberal stooge, Chris Uhlmann ( married to Federal ALP member Gai Brodtman) is a pro Liberal hack.
    If you think Lee Rhiannon is in the centre of Australian politics this site is for you alas Lavartus Prodeo is dead so you get their old leftovers ( Hi Fran).

    LOL, excellent and funny post.

  24. Matty D@6234


    I see, like that is it. A young conservative joins and you all hound on him instead of being mature and welcoming. And you know why? Because you’re gutless, all of you, gutless!

    Sorry, didn’t know you were such a delicate petal.

    Go away, HTFU and come back. 😛

  25. Matty D@6234


    I see, like that is it. A young conservative joins and you all hound on him instead of being mature and welcoming. And you know why? Because you’re gutless, all of you, gutless!

    Water off a duck’s back, mate.

    When you’ve got something besides invective to offer, let us know.

  26. Matty D@6234


    I see, like that is it. A young conservative joins and you all hound on him instead of being mature and welcoming. And you know why? Because you’re gutless, all of you, gutless!

    You are the gutless one.

    Back up you’re claims –

    [I will say, though, that Labor is sure to spend way more than necessary on it, as they invariably do on pretty much everything. ]

    Provide fact and forget the squawking and squealing.

  27. Righto, so answer this. Why do you Labor supporters really expect the swing/centrist voters to vote for them, after they lied about the carbon tax and surplus?

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