NOTE: Poll Bludger will be closed for comments for two weeks from December 25 to January 7 inclusive.
Melbourne Ports covers Bayside inner Melbourne from the mouth of the Yarra through Port Melbourne and Albert Park to St Kilda, further jutting inland in the south to take in Elsternwick. The redistribution to take effect at the next election will transfer 9000 voters in Elsternick and Caulfield South south of Glen Huntly Road to Goldstein, increasing the Labor margin from 7.6% to 7.9%. Melbourne Ports has the largest Jewish community of any electorate in Australia, accounting for 12.8% of the local population, and ranks at or near the top for numbers of Poles, Russians and Hungarians. It also has the second lowest proportion of Christians after its northern neighbour, Melbourne.
Labor’s greatest source of strength in the electorate is around St Kilda, where booths results in 2010 typically had Labor in the high thirties, the Greens on or around 30%, and the Liberals in third place in the mid-twenties. At the city end of the electorate, encompassing Port Melbourne, South Melbourne and Albert Park, green-left inner-city tendencies are counterbalanced by wealthy Liberal-voting elements. The strongest areas for the Liberals are in the east of the electorate, both around South Yarra in the north and Caulfield in the south, where the suburbs begin to take on the character of the electorate’s safe Liberal neighbour, Higgins.
Melbourne Ports was once noted for its preponderance of waterfront workers and generally working class voter base, and was accordingly very safe for Labor for most of its history. It has since transformed into the tenth wealthiest electorate in the country, a process which has considerably worn down Labor’s margin. The seat has nonetheless been extremely stable over the past two decades, recording essentially no swing at all at the consecutive elections of 1996, 1998 and 2001, a 2.0% swing to the Liberals in 2004, and swings to Labor of 3.4% in 2007 and 0.4% in 2010. The 2004 election proved Labor’s low water mark to date, the margin falling to 3.7%.
Labor has held the seat without interruption since 1906, with only five members serving over that time: James Matthews until 1931; Ted Holloway, a Curtin-Chifley government minister who moved to Melbourne Ports after unseating Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in Flinders two years earlier, until 1951; Frank Crean, Whitlam government Treasurer and father of Simon, until 1977; Clyde Holding, who came to the seat after a long and unproductive spell as state Opposition Leader, until 1998; and the incumbent, Michael Danby.
A member of the Right sub-faction associated with Stephen Conroy and Bill Shorten, Michael Danby’s pre-parliamentary career included stints as editor of the Australia-Israel Review, staffer to Hawke government minister Barry Cohen and industrial officer for the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. He is frequently in the news as a supportive voice for Israel, most recently after the Prime Minister was prevailed upon to have Australia support observer status for the Palestinian territories at the United Nations. Although occasionally mentioned as a candidate for promotion, he is yet to achieve a position more senior than Opposition Whip, which he held between 2001 and 2007.
The preselected Liberal candidate for the second electorate running is Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.
Bemused 2895 quit while you are ahead comrade…
shows – Was that about 2 secs ago?
Bilbo – is just teasing now or is passed out in the garden.
Rossmore@2892
Certainly not anti-Labor.
And the problem with Gillard was mentioned by several posters today relating conversations with ordinary punters. She is not liked or trusted.
What keeps her in the game is that Abbott is even less liked and trusted.
As I have said before, I hope I am wrong. But if it was up to me, I would not be betting an election on it.
However, Rudd is out of the game, and I don’t see anyone else with the capacity to take over, so Gillard will lead into the next election.
Rossmore:
If bemused were ‘banished’ as you put it, what would the rest of us do for laughs?
Btw I’ve just scrolled through today’s comments and see bemused has absolutely dominated this place today.
bemused: do you not work or have a family or have a life? Jeez, get out more and learn to live a little. It’s guaranteed to take the edge off your lack of humour and boorishness.
Merry Xmas in SA.
[She is not liked or trusted]
Didn’t Gillard try the Howard “Who do you trust more” line a year or so ago?
Lasted from lunchtime to lateline from memory! Hehe 🙂
She is not exactly a stellar media performer is she?
[ And the problem with Gillard was mentioned by several posters today relating conversations with ordinary punters. She is not liked or trusted. ]
Just ask Amanda Vanstone what she thinks about her! 😉
Fiona 2897 Fair comment. Where there’s evidence, calling it out is the best policy, IMHO.
He made a completely uncalled for slur on a (probably slightly pissed) poster the other night and I told him to STFU. In truth I suspect he is completely unaware of how his posts can affect people.
[or is passed out in the garden.]
with Mods walrus and better than a dozen dogs.
I am going to have to go to bed. Goodnight and see you at Joe’s place.
Bowen’s an ugly fucker.
Bemused,
[She is not liked or trusted.]
According to the polls, Ms Gillard is liked and trusted by a majority of female (yerss, those dangerous wimmen people) electors. And by a HUGE majority over that silly little Mr Abbott. What’s more – and perhaps a bit surprisingly – Ms Gillard gets the same positive and liking rating from 50% of males.
Perhaps the electorate is getting used to her, and approving of the way she is doing her incredibly difficult job?
confessions@2905
Talk about a pot calling a kettle black…
Not working at present. Today, had a haircut, did some shopping, attended a medical appointment and did other household chores. Attended to quite a number of email.
I do other things while online, which is why I often get an hour or so behind and have to catch up.
[ According to the polls, Ms Gillard is liked and trusted by a majority of female (yerss, those dangerous wimmen people) electors. ]
Ain’t they supposed to be wrecking the joint?
[Perhaps the electorate is getting used to her, and approving of the way she is doing her incredibly difficult job?]
getting used to her
approving of the way she is doing her job
and intending to vote for her opponent
Night everyone. Gotta get a bit of shut-eye before Santa comes.
Mod Lib.
No they won’t
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
I thought you were going to bed? 😉
ComIng from Bemused, I nominate this for post of the year. Progress at last…
“However, Rudd is out of the game, and I don’t see anyone else with the capacity to take over, so Gillard will lead into the next election.”
Like they wouldn’t vote for Ted B, Barry O or that guy who was meant to go to jail along with his family but ended up winning about a dozen times as many seats as the ALP?
Scorps
I am thinking about it.
[Talk about a pot calling a kettle black…]
Or a blattle kek?
Scorpio,
[Ain’t they supposed to be wrecking the joint?]
Yeah, we do that in our spare time, when we aren’t cleaning up after you mob.
So glad about your grandson – a wonderful Christmas for all of you.
Mod Lib.
No.
They won’t vote for Tony Abbott.
scorps – A backup post.
Get stuffed again.
fiona@2913
Well of course she scores well against Abbott. I think an indoor plant would.
But just go back and read what a couple of posters reported today about conversations with ordinary voters.
When a few polls have thrown some other names into the mix she has not done well at all.
And I simply do not buy the myth of her political genius. She has shot herself in the foot numerous times.
[They won’t vote for Tony Abbott.]
The majority of voters in the majority of seats wanted an Abbott government THE LAST ELECTION!
Do you think things have improved for the ALP since 2010?
Blimey! Mrs Scorpio just came in here dressed in a Santa outfit and wanted to know if I wanted to unwrap my present………………
I wonder what’s inside?????
Night all. Gotta rush……………….
Someonepleae repost the pbXmastragics blog for latecomers/
Rossmore@2920
You must be amazingly inattentive. I have conceded that point on numerous occasions.
[Night all. Gotta rush……………….]
I would take your time actually! (wink, wink)
PMJG has shot Abbott in the butt more times.
Rossmore,
[“However, Rudd is out of the game, and I don’t see anyone else with the capacity to take over, so Gillard will lead into the next election”>]
Good get – bookmark it (I will).
I should go to bed but don’t particularly want to – have to admit to Poll Bludgers that I didn’t quite walk out of my vehicular contretemps last week just unbruised – there’s a bruised/cracked rib as well and it’s not nice.
Mod Lib@2928
Oh really?
CTar1,
[ scorps – A backup post.
Get stuffed again. ]
Get a watermelon up yuh!
I hope Santa misses your place this year! 😉
[Talk about a pot calling a kettle black…]
Hilarious given that I have a fulltime job, whereas you do not.
You really do need to get out more. Who knows, if you get away from this place for long enough you might find that there are more and more of your fellow Australians who see the PM as we do, rather than as you do.
But of course, the longer you remain here locked into some cycle of retributive justice, or whatever it is that you want for St Kev, you’ll forever be trapped in yesterday’s view, unable to step into the future and what it offers you.
[Oh really?]
Really
No! O’Riley this time.
Bemused 2927
“And I simply do not buy the myth of her political genius. She has shot herself in the foot numerous times.”
I ain’t calling her a political genius. Just one badass, tough, mother f*cka, who is out-maneuvering her opponents against overwhelming odds from a biased MSM, petrified about the NBN.
She deserves our unwavering support
scorpio:
R U finished already?
confessions@2937
Well bully for you.
Not everyone is so fortunate in this uneven economy.
You are making all sorts of arrogant and stupid assumptions that are baseless.
But then that is what you do, isn’t it?
Fiona, cracked ribs. Toughen up, you’ll survive…
scorps
[Blimey! Mrs Scorpio just came in here dressed in a Santa outfit an]
You should have just made the drive down to go to the markets with me this morning.
Blond piece, skinny as rake, but wearing antler things.
Always makes me think of ‘doggie.
Get stuffed,again , you missed out you old bastard!
Rossmore@2940
I support the ALP and I am in a state of almost constant anxiety about what will be stuffed up next.
I just hope people like George Wright can run a decent campaign at the next election.
Rossmore,
[I ain’t calling her a political genius. Just one badass, tough, mother f*cka, who is out-maneuvering her opponents against overwhelming odds from a biased MSM, petrified about the NBN.
She deserves our unwavering support.]
What were we arguing about?
[You are making all sorts of arrogant and stupid assumptions that are baseless.]
What?
You yourself said you were unemployed.
That you’ve sat on this blog all day commenting is a matter of public record. Scroll through the comments if you are having amnesia about your time here.
Baseless, arrogant, and stupid would be yet more hysterical, ridiculous over-reaching by you btw.
Fess 2937, much as l admire some of your thoughts, this is not a good look..
“Hilarious given that I have a fulltime job, whereas you do not.”
Well I am not waiting around until mid-night WA time, so goodnight all.
Phew! Presents wrapped and deposited under the tree(such as she is, being a few straggly She Oak saplings strapped together with twine & decorated 🙂 ).
Well, I’m off to bed. It looks like William is going by North Korea time. 😉
However, before I go, a special Merry Xmas to Grey. You are missed. 🙂
See you all on the upside! Ciao bambinos!