Seat of the week: Melbourne Ports

Labor’s century-long hold on this inner southern Melbourne seat has never really looked threatened, despite being transformed by gentrification over the past few decades.

NOTE: Poll Bludger will be closed for comments for two weeks from December 25 to January 7 inclusive.

Melbourne Ports covers Bayside inner Melbourne from the mouth of the Yarra through Port Melbourne and Albert Park to St Kilda, further jutting inland in the south to take in Elsternwick. The redistribution to take effect at the next election will transfer 9000 voters in Elsternick and Caulfield South south of Glen Huntly Road to Goldstein, increasing the Labor margin from 7.6% to 7.9%. Melbourne Ports has the largest Jewish community of any electorate in Australia, accounting for 12.8% of the local population, and ranks at or near the top for numbers of Poles, Russians and Hungarians. It also has the second lowest proportion of Christians after its northern neighbour, Melbourne.

Labor’s greatest source of strength in the electorate is around St Kilda, where booths results in 2010 typically had Labor in the high thirties, the Greens on or around 30%, and the Liberals in third place in the mid-twenties. At the city end of the electorate, encompassing Port Melbourne, South Melbourne and Albert Park, green-left inner-city tendencies are counterbalanced by wealthy Liberal-voting elements. The strongest areas for the Liberals are in the east of the electorate, both around South Yarra in the north and Caulfield in the south, where the suburbs begin to take on the character of the electorate’s safe Liberal neighbour, Higgins.

Melbourne Ports was once noted for its preponderance of waterfront workers and generally working class voter base, and was accordingly very safe for Labor for most of its history. It has since transformed into the tenth wealthiest electorate in the country, a process which has considerably worn down Labor’s margin. The seat has nonetheless been extremely stable over the past two decades, recording essentially no swing at all at the consecutive elections of 1996, 1998 and 2001, a 2.0% swing to the Liberals in 2004, and swings to Labor of 3.4% in 2007 and 0.4% in 2010. The 2004 election proved Labor’s low water mark to date, the margin falling to 3.7%.

Labor has held the seat without interruption since 1906, with only five members serving over that time: James Matthews until 1931; Ted Holloway, a Curtin-Chifley government minister who moved to Melbourne Ports after unseating Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in Flinders two years earlier, until 1951; Frank Crean, Whitlam government Treasurer and father of Simon, until 1977; Clyde Holding, who came to the seat after a long and unproductive spell as state Opposition Leader, until 1998; and the incumbent, Michael Danby.

A member of the Right sub-faction associated with Stephen Conroy and Bill Shorten, Michael Danby’s pre-parliamentary career included stints as editor of the Australia-Israel Review, staffer to Hawke government minister Barry Cohen and industrial officer for the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. He is frequently in the news as a supportive voice for Israel, most recently after the Prime Minister was prevailed upon to have Australia support observer status for the Palestinian territories at the United Nations. Although occasionally mentioned as a candidate for promotion, he is yet to achieve a position more senior than Opposition Whip, which he held between 2001 and 2007.

The preselected Liberal candidate for the second electorate running is Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,987 comments on “Seat of the week: Melbourne Ports”

Comments Page 55 of 60
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  2. [I will be abiding by the rulings of the moderators at the Xmas Tragics blog. Will you agree to be bound by their judgement calls if it doesn’t suit you?]
    Where are the rules? I want to read them before I express my lack of commitment to them.

  6. Merry Christmas everyone. Hope you all have a happy and safe break.

    Thanks for your moderation for another year William. All the best to you and yours.

    Cheers!

  8. confessions,
    All I have to drink tomorrow is a cheeky little Rothbury Estate Vintage Semillon. 🙂

    Because, I ain’t driving no kids nowhere! 😀

  9. [John Farnham, Beeb Birtle and Grahame Goble singing “Silent Night” at Carols By Candlelight.]
    Curiosity Killed the Cat is better.

  11. C@tmomma@2680


    Shows On and bemused,
    It is not lack of tolerance to set some standards.

    It is not tolerance to tolerate any and all behaviour, just because someone with a dominant and domineering personality believes they should be able to take their schtick wherever they go on the web.

    Me included.

    I will be abiding by the rulings of the moderators at the Xmas Tragics blog. Will you agree to be bound by their judgement calls if it doesn’t suit you?

    I will.

    I would be happy to abide by Joe6pack’s calls as it is his site and Joe is a fair dinkum person in the real world.

  15. Merry Xmas Bludgers.

    From a (mostly) dedicated lurker for most of the last 2 years – your insights, be they uncannily accurate or a complete misfire, have always been welcome.

    I frequent this place more than any other media & like it or not, you all have assumed the mantle of minor celebrity status amongst a growing core of consumers. I for one welcome my new media overlords in the titanic battle ahead in 2013. May Poll Bludger reign supreme in the new year!

    Although I’m nervous re the coming year of politics, your contributions are invaluable in that I know I won’t be making the journey alone.

    So, best wishes to all who contribute (or like me, skulk) for the new year – & see you on the flip side!

  16. Joe6pack@2681


    Merry xmas to all

    Already said it before but here we go again… 😀
    Merry Christmas and a Happy & Prosperous New Year to you Joe.
    Keep safe on those roads and look out for fiona. 😉

  17. Good evening PBRs. I detect some early skirmishing on appropriate etiquette on the PB tragic blog over the Xmas break.

    I hope the moderators uphold WBs measured standards and don’t pander to the crowd.

    A broad church means a broad church.

  18. [I would be happy to abide by Joe6pack’s calls as it is his site and Joe is a fair dinkum person in the real world.]
    OK that seems better than letting Bullshit run a blog.

    But where are the rules?

    I’ve read people discussing the rules, but I don’t know what they are.

  22. [Good evening PBRs. I detect some early skirmishing on appropriate etiquette on the PB tragic blog over the Xmas break.

    I hope the moderators uphold WBs measured standards and don’t pander to the crowd.]
    Have you seen the rules?

    I need to read the rules so I know how to circumvent them.

  24. [OK that seems better than letting Bullshit run a blog.

    But where are the rules?

    I’ve read people discussing the rules, but I don’t know what they are.]

    and

    [Have you seen the rules?

    I need to read the rules so I know how to circumvent them.]

    …sounding a little desperate Shows…..no other life to go to over the Xmas New Years break?

    I am sure they will be nice to you, don’t worry. 🙂

  25. Rossmore & ShowsOn,

    The church will be broad, but forgiveness will be slightly less easier to obtain.

    For example, name-calling other Bludgers … even in jest.

  27. Is Mod Lib crying again?

    It happens so often I can’t tell they are genuine tears or just really bad hayfever or perhaps a combination of both.

  28. [OK that seems better than letting Bullshit run a blog.]

    Oh, but I am, co-running at least.

    [But where are the rules?]

    Decent behaviour. Figure it out.

  29. [Rossmore & ShowsOn,

    The church will be broad, but forgiveness will be slightly less easier to obtain.

    For example, name-calling other Bludgers … even in jest.]
    You should write down the rules else you’ll just end up having arguments possibly about the rules.

  32. C@tmomma@2713


    Anyone else waiting around to see what happens when the lights get turned out by William at midnight?

    It poses all sorts of questions, like, will it turn off at mid-night AEDT or WAST?
    Or will he go time-zone by time zone shutting us down in the east first.
    What happens if I am in the middle of a post?
    What happens if William is in the middle of sin-binning someone at mid-night?

    I demand answers! 😀

  33. C@tmomma,

    [Anyone else waiting around to see what happens when the lights get turned out by William at midnight?]

    Have you considered that the lights might not be turned out until 3am AEDT?

    Nevertheless, I shall be staying up past midnight to listen to Charpentier’s Messe de minuit pour Noël on ABC Classics FM. I’ve sung it at Christmas midnight several times, and it’s an exquisite work.

    I’ll probably cry me eyes out, though.

  34. @C@tmomma 2699

    [What did you think about that Bendigo poll that The Hun run with today?]

    Well, since Labor currently holds Bendigo by 59.5/40.5, it’s nothing really concerning. Labor would still win by at least 53.5/46.5 on those numbers.

    I expect it to narrow next year, when Bendigo voters realize that Abbott only wants to punish them for voting Labor all this time.

  35. [Decent behaviour. Figure it out.]
    So if Mod Lib turned up and posted something about something that would be indecent behaviour because it would at best be wrong and at worst be a lie.

  36. [CTar1
    Posted Monday, December 24, 2012 at 10:53 pm | PERMALINK
    iBdoD,

    So me posting the really rude walrus clip is cool? (alliteration is big with me tonight)]

    Was this directed at me?

    What walrus clip?

  37. ShowsOn,

    [You should write down the rules else you’ll just end up having arguments possibly about the rules.]

    Joe6pack’s edict is simple:

    Treat people how you would like to be treated

    In other words, no bullying. Though if that’s what you like, just let us know.

  40. Your safe Shows, I wont be at the Xmas blog!

    You will have to fins someone else to falsely accuse and insult though….however, others may not be as forgiving as my good self!

  42. modlib – I, also, felt very sad for the poor walrus.

    You’re one, very, very sick piece of equipment.

    There, finally, managed to spit my disgust out.

  44. grim tidings

    may your word turn to most happy tidings

    you say hello more often

    keep saying this but does any one else have spodify

    attached to their lap top or what ever.

    the music i have on is all panio music at the moment

  45. Rossmore,

    [Ain’t democracy a wonderful thing …]

    Yes.

    Would you like me to finish this comment with some egregious slagging of your good self?

    Because if that’s what democracy means to you, I’d be both surprised and disappointed.

    My understanding has always been that democracy is the contest of ideas, not ad homimen/feminem insults, or other puerile behaviour.

    And that – for everyone who is still wondering – is what we are aiming for at PBXTragics.

  46. Hello bludgers. I am mainly spending time with family and friends for the next few days but I just wanted to drop in to wish you all a happy Christmas. I hope all are healthy and happy, and that Bilbo finishes his PhD in the new year 🙂

    The danger of getting too wrapped up in politics is that we lose sight of normal (real) life. We shouldn’t forget that we stil live in one of the safest, most peaceful, diverse (multi-cultural) and yes, richest countries on earth. Things will never be perfect, but overall they are still pretty darn good. Let’s appreciate it and spend tomorrow with those we love.
    Kind regards
    Socrates

  47. I would like to echo GrimTidings sentiments. I too am a lurker and appreciate the posters efforts. I have abandoned the regular news services and mostly get my balanced commentary here. Thanks for your insights and I wish you the best for the coming year.

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