Seat of the week: Melbourne Ports

Labor’s century-long hold on this inner southern Melbourne seat has never really looked threatened, despite being transformed by gentrification over the past few decades.

NOTE: Poll Bludger will be closed for comments for two weeks from December 25 to January 7 inclusive.

Melbourne Ports covers Bayside inner Melbourne from the mouth of the Yarra through Port Melbourne and Albert Park to St Kilda, further jutting inland in the south to take in Elsternwick. The redistribution to take effect at the next election will transfer 9000 voters in Elsternick and Caulfield South south of Glen Huntly Road to Goldstein, increasing the Labor margin from 7.6% to 7.9%. Melbourne Ports has the largest Jewish community of any electorate in Australia, accounting for 12.8% of the local population, and ranks at or near the top for numbers of Poles, Russians and Hungarians. It also has the second lowest proportion of Christians after its northern neighbour, Melbourne.

Labor’s greatest source of strength in the electorate is around St Kilda, where booths results in 2010 typically had Labor in the high thirties, the Greens on or around 30%, and the Liberals in third place in the mid-twenties. At the city end of the electorate, encompassing Port Melbourne, South Melbourne and Albert Park, green-left inner-city tendencies are counterbalanced by wealthy Liberal-voting elements. The strongest areas for the Liberals are in the east of the electorate, both around South Yarra in the north and Caulfield in the south, where the suburbs begin to take on the character of the electorate’s safe Liberal neighbour, Higgins.

Melbourne Ports was once noted for its preponderance of waterfront workers and generally working class voter base, and was accordingly very safe for Labor for most of its history. It has since transformed into the tenth wealthiest electorate in the country, a process which has considerably worn down Labor’s margin. The seat has nonetheless been extremely stable over the past two decades, recording essentially no swing at all at the consecutive elections of 1996, 1998 and 2001, a 2.0% swing to the Liberals in 2004, and swings to Labor of 3.4% in 2007 and 0.4% in 2010. The 2004 election proved Labor’s low water mark to date, the margin falling to 3.7%.

Labor has held the seat without interruption since 1906, with only five members serving over that time: James Matthews until 1931; Ted Holloway, a Curtin-Chifley government minister who moved to Melbourne Ports after unseating Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in Flinders two years earlier, until 1951; Frank Crean, Whitlam government Treasurer and father of Simon, until 1977; Clyde Holding, who came to the seat after a long and unproductive spell as state Opposition Leader, until 1998; and the incumbent, Michael Danby.

A member of the Right sub-faction associated with Stephen Conroy and Bill Shorten, Michael Danby’s pre-parliamentary career included stints as editor of the Australia-Israel Review, staffer to Hawke government minister Barry Cohen and industrial officer for the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. He is frequently in the news as a supportive voice for Israel, most recently after the Prime Minister was prevailed upon to have Australia support observer status for the Palestinian territories at the United Nations. Although occasionally mentioned as a candidate for promotion, he is yet to achieve a position more senior than Opposition Whip, which he held between 2001 and 2007.

The preselected Liberal candidate for the second electorate running is Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,987 comments on “Seat of the week: Melbourne Ports”

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  3. Confessions,

    [Doesn’t everyone know that Billecart is the best champagne EVAH?!]

    Nah. Louis Roederer Cristal.

    Last century, when I still took OH out for dinner for his birthday, we were at a particularly fine Melbourne establishment, and I ordered a half of LRC. A full bottle arrived. I pointed out the discrepancy, and was told, drink it – you will only be charged the half bottle price.

    One of these days I will fork out $400 plus and get another bottle.

  4. You know how to make me LOL Shows, I’ll grant you that.

    You have been a wonderful boost for my spirits this festive season and for that I thank you!

  5. [What exactly does the Pope say it is necessary to do to be a “true man”?]
    For the pope being a true man means wearing a special dress and tiara, and promising not to have sex with anyone.

  7. fiona:

    Ooooohhhhh, if you’re going to up the price bracket, then that opens up whole other possibilities!!!

    All of which are outside my budget I might add, and so can’t be included in my best evah list. 🙂 Maybe a wish list?

  9. Shows – I was really fine until a guy at the bottle shop gave me a Jack glass the other day.

    I’m not really very pissed – just very confused and you’re just the right sort of queer F$ck to advise on this: Do I really have to wear a flannelette shirt to drink bourbon, or is it optional??????????

  10. [ Each comment I made was the comment I expected to be my usual pink bits, ]

    The first thing I can remember after reading that was someone waving smelling salts under my nose & calling, “wake up Scorpio, wake up, it’s all right now!”

  12. dave @ 2390

    That is an absolute classic! I just can’t stop laughing, just imagining the conversation taking place etc.

    One of the best laughs I’ve had for quite some time – I have some personal issues to deal with that keep me down and out – so it has come at a good time.

    LOL

  14. ‘fess – I think the 10 minutes before the boat race starts will be very much worse. If I don’t post after that, Think well of me, please.

  15. [I’m not really very pissed – just very confused and you’re just the right sort of queer F$ck to advise on this: Do I really have to wear a flannelette shirt to drink bourbon, or is it optional??????????]
    Rather than wearing clothes, why not just bathe in the bourbon?

  16. [Tweet from Malcolm Turnbull. Too bad his fellow MPs are not concerned

    Scientists Report Faster Warming in Antarctica nyti.ms/TOsyZx]
    I heard on NPR today that this year will be the warmest on record for the U.S.

  20. I have had my fruit mince pies and a glass of muscat. I have some lovely classical music on from the foxtel music channels, and no lights. Mum has gone to bro and SIL for dinner.

    The muscat bottle is empty, should I open the sherry?

  22. Confessions,

    Next time I’m in the west we shall share a bottle of Roederer – provided you cook.

    Danny Lewis,

    To the manor born! Audrey could not have done it better.

    CTar1,

    Optional, I’d say – but if you take ShowsOn’s advice that might equate to tincture of CTar1 …

    No, let’s not explore that particular avenue of enquiry. Not tonight.

  29. Puff my favourite Dragon,

    [The muscat bottle is empty, should I open the sherry?]

    If you want to, yes.

    Merry Christmas to you and yours!

  30. Shows On and bemused,
    It is not lack of tolerance to set some standards.

    It is not tolerance to tolerate any and all behaviour, just because someone with a dominant and domineering personality believes they should be able to take their schtick wherever they go on the web.

    Me included.

    I will be abiding by the rulings of the moderators at the Xmas Tragics blog. Will you agree to be bound by their judgement calls if it doesn’t suit you?

    I will.

  33. [‘fess – Are you suggesting I should crash the Ducks place right now? Mary may not be keen.]

    Gawd no! Let celebrating Ducks lie. Or something.

  34. pb is Très entertaining tonight but one element is missing.

    In response to a Fib poster who was complaining of bias the other day I responded ‘Julia Gillard is a rug muncher and Tim is a handbag’.

    In an effort to pep things up I’ll now add “KRUD chews carpet, Too”, but only if all poster approve.

  40. C@t:

    If you’d asked the same question a couple of hours ago I could’ve happily responded no.

    But alas, it’s xmas eve, and I was invited to a party tonight, but just didn’t feel up to it. A couple of quiet rieslings at home and an early night are the order for me.

  44. CTar1,

    [OK, I don’t think I could make it to the garage anyway.]

    Even if you could, you shouldn’t – think of the feelings of your gorgeous Silver Lady.

  46. Bushfire Bill@2642


    Wow, what a surprise! Left leaning bloggers agreeing that a right leaning blogger is wrong.


    Don’t get too full of yourself Mod Lib. PBXMAS is no lefty Utopia, so you don’t have to run the “Martyr” routine so beloved of right wingers.

    If you want to comment at PBX, which I doubt anyway, just follow the rules, like everybody else, and you’ll be fine.

    Hmmmm reads to me like BB is channelling Frank. 😆

  48. CTar1,

    [Madelaine is I think close to ‘flame’ singing.

    fiona – yes/no?]

    Flame? No. Torch? Yes.

    Though you might be too young to appreciate the distinction.

  49. Von Kirsdarke,
    Merry Xmas! you young whippersnapper, you! 😀

    What did you think about that Bendigo poll that The Hun run with today?

  50. fiona – damage would be minor. The worst I could possibly do is to turn the stereo up to much and blow all 16 of the Harmon-Kardons.

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