Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 523 respondents conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, which have Labor on 36.5% of the primary vote, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 8.5%. Morgan’s headline two-party result is 51-49, but this comes from the dubious respondent-allocated preferences measure: the more reliable measure using preferences from the previous election has the Coalition’s lead at 52.5-47.5. This being a phone poll, it should not have the Labor bias associated with Morgan’s face-to-face polling. It also reverses the consistent trend of the face-to-face series in giving Labor the better result on respondent-allocated preferences (I have consistently had grave doubts about the face-to-face polling on this score). However, the poll shows no gap in voting intention between men and women, which perhaps illustrates the difficulties you can get with small samples. The margin of error on the poll is about 4.3%.
Morgan has also taken on the tricky job of framing questions appropriate to the knotty AWU matter. The most useful of these asks if respondents approve or disapprove of Gillard’s response, coming in at 37% and 28% respectively. A question on whether the Prime Minister should resign if “scandal allegations are true” has 43% saying she should against 27% saying she shouldn’t, but this rather overlooks the enormous range of the allegations that might be levelled (had they started a few days later they could simply have asked if respondents agreed with Christopher Pyne). Another question asks whether Gillard “was aware that the AWU ‘slush-fund’ was illegal when she resigned from Slater & Gordon in 1995”, which seems simplistic at best. Thirty-three per cent answered in the affirmative (including 10% of Labor voters and 20% of a tiny sample of Greens voters) against 26% negative, 17% couldn’t say and 24% not aware of the scandal.
There is also an entertaining plethora of questions on preferred party leaders, the chief head-to-head scorelines being Gillard 49 Abbott 36, Turnbull 59 Gillard 31, Gillard 46 Hockey 44, and Turnbull 54 Rudd 38. Not featured: Gillard versus Rudd or Abbott versus Turnbull.
Seat of the week: Perth
The electorate of Perth extends north-eastwards from the city centre to accommodate an area bounded to the south by the Swan River, extending from Mount Lawley and Maylands to Morley and Bassendean. An electorate bearing the name has existed since federation, with the entirety of the metropolitan area having been divided between it and Fremantle until the expansion of parliament in 1949. It then assumed more familiar dimensions, with Swan being drawn into the metropolitan area and Curtin created to accommodate the western suburbs.
Perth was held from its creation until 1922 by James Fowler, first as a Labor member and then as a Liberal and Nationalist following his defection in 1909. It thereafter remained in conservative hands until the Labor landslide of 1943, when it was won by Tom Burke (father of Brian). Burke held the seat until defeated in 1955 by Liberal candidate Fred Chaney Senior, whose son Fred Chaney Junior was a Fraser government minister, Senator and member for Pearce. Chaney was in turn unseated in 1969 by Joe Berinson, who became a junior minister in the Whitlam government and later a state Attorney-General. When the 1975 debacle cost Labor all its WA seats except for Fremantle, Berinson suffered a narrow defeat at the hands of Liberal candidate Ross McLean.
Redistributions in 1977 and 1990 respectively reoriented the seat westwards to the advantage of the Liberals and eastwards to the advantage of Labor. Australian hockey captain Ric Charlesworth was able to gain and hold the seat for Labor in the more difficult conditions after 1983, and Stephen Smith came to a seat with a solid Labor margin when he succeeded Charlesworth in 1993. It continued to trend in Labor’s favour thereafter, remarkably producing a slight positive swing amid the 1996 landslide, and surpassed Fremantle as Labor’s safest WA seat at the 2010 election. However, such has been the party’s progressive malaise in WA over the past decade that the margin has worn down to 5.9%.
Stephen Smith had been an adviser to Paul Keating and a state party secretary before entering parliament, emerging as a senior figure in the Right faction. He was elevated to the front bench after the 1996 defeat, and became Foreign Minister when the Rudd government came to power in 2007. He relinquished this role with displeasure when it was given to Kevin Rudd after the 2010 election, instead being assigned to defence. His desire to return to the foreign ministry was thwarted when Bob Carr was drafted after Kevin Rudd’s failed leadership challenge in February 2012. Smith also served as Trade Minister from Julia Gillard’s ascension to the prime ministership in June 2010 until the reshuffle which followed the subsequent election.
A Liberal preselection in June 2012 was won by Darryl Moore, a former mining engineer now involved in “investing in and managing the family’s commercial and industrial real estate portfolio”, ahead of Geoff Hourn, a former lieutenant-colonel in the Australian Intelligence Corps.
Look, Mod, right back at at you.
I’ve never known you to admit an error, even when one has been pointed out to you.
So you still think you are right do you?
Hehe 🙂
Aguirre, I think Labor can fight and win on everything… on policies, on the economy, on tax and public finance, on the environment, on strength of leadership…on the whole ethos of discipline and achievement in office.
This is a high quality Government. They have achieved more in two years than Howard achieved in more than 10. And the longer they last, they better they look: the more composed, the more purposeful, the more effective, the more accomplished.
For sure, challenges remain. But the choice is clearly between a highly capable Labor Government and a bunch of duds who aspire to do nothing whatsoever, and who are fully occupied whinging about their enemies.
zoomster@595
zoomster, you had better quit while you are behind.
Speak to the remedial maths teacher at school.
Let’s take a simple example.
There are 30 seats and party A and party B each hold 15.
At an election, party A loses 9 seats leaving it with 6 and party B picks up those 9 seats, giving it 24.
What is the margin between the 2?
zoomster maths answer – 9. (methodology unknown and unknowable)
orthodox maths – 24 – 6 = 18
QED
zoomster@598
Internal polls are not released. Even if they exist.
Gary:
That “teflon coat” has crashed Abbott’s approvals, and seen Labor draw closer in the polls.
Both bemused and zoomster are correct. They are just talking about different things. A loss of 9 seats from one party to the other does result in a party having 18 votes advantage over the other in the House but it is achieved by one party losing 9 seats and the other gaining those 9 seats at an election. So the party that loses those 9 seats doesn’t need to win 18 seats next election just 9.
Re W#estern Sydney
__________________
At risk of repeating myself re western Sydney…it’s probably true that the animosity amongst middle easteners against Gillard may be be a real factor in the coming elections
Her recent defeat on the Palestinian issue at the hands of Carr and others reflects what the internal pollling is showing
I am told by several arab friends that the “sbstention” vote won’t change aything as Gillard’s hard-line support of Israel damns her in the eyes of many voters there(usually a Labor voting group)
Interestly in recent issues the two major arabic papers in NSW have taken up the fact that the PM has a “Jewish affairs” advisor(has she one for Copts? Catholics?.”..if not why not)
Oddly Jewish voters are outnumbered by ME ones by a huge number…and one suspects many wealthy middle-class Jews(in Bondi or Caulfield )must vote Liberal anyway
In view of their recent success the Middle Eastern communities have gained on this issue they are now looking at a Senate campaign next year…they will poll very well if they do ..the Palestinian issue cuts across all divisions in the diverse ME communities…a sure winner !!
But the PM seems to scorn the facts…and one might ask why this devotion to a nation-state that could raise only 9 votes from almost 200 in the UN ??
what the catch ?? It eludes me
Even Germany …long browbeaten and threatened with being unmasked as Nazies by the zionist … abstained
In Africa and Asia they had not a single supporter
.. and apart from Panama(!!) none in Latin America.. supported the Israelis either,,and only the Czeck’s in Europe
So what is the PM on about…is it her usual obediance to the US..or she as seems possible is she a blindly loyal zionist
What ever…the Arab commuunity press and media is now aroused and determined to give her a massive whack when the time comes
wait and see.
..but the polls in Western Sydney reveal voters are on the move
..and today Israeli has announced that it will build homes for another 3000 settlers on Arab land in East Jerusalem
a spit in the face for the UN and the world
It’s that pesky English language I tell you. That’s what happens when you mix it and math together.
OK – that one I got wrong. But I was right and ModLib was wrong in the beginning…
The word I objected to was not ‘margin’ but ‘majority’.
Yes, the margin is 18.
In the example you use, the party with 15 seats plus has the ‘majority’ of seats.
If they end up with 24 seats, they have a majority of 9.
ModLib’s first post used the word ‘majority’. When I pointed out his error, he shifted the goalposts and used ‘margin’.
Gary@607
The meaning of ‘margin’ is clearly defined.
So you are saying zoomster does not understand it. OK.
bemused
well, sorry, but you were the one discussing the internal polls originally — a couple of weeks ago now.
They were leaked, there was an article about them, and you did the maths you like to do as a Labor person to make you feel bad and said we were all doomed.
For those who ask about Eden Monaro. For what its worth, I don’t live in the electorate, but spend a lot of time at a holiday house on the coastal strip and do volunteer work in Qbn. I have some idea of the electorate, but would agree with Boerwars sentiments and defer to the more expert knowledge of Psephos. I have handed out how to votes at the last two elections, both times in the wild Snowy River country.
There can be no doubt that Mike Kelly is an excellent candidate for this electorate. His family have lived in the far south coast end in the old dairying country for about 150 years. His GGrand father(who married an ancestor of mine) was one of a few who set up the Bega Cheese Co-op at the turn of the 20th Century, and there are a plethora of rellos still in the area who are held in high regard. (Rugby League tragics may remember fiery prop Peter Kelly of Canterbury and Penrith who is a rello, as were several fringe first graders and lower graders with the Raiders).
The northern area of the electorate has a huge number of serving and recently retired military personnel living within it and of course he has great credibility among these people who are not normally within the ALP grasp. There is also a large retirement cohort of ex military and APS staff in the northern coastal strip from Batemans Bay to Tuross Heads which he has made some inroads into.
All that said, the ALP strength lies in the Queanbeyan and Cooma areas. Until about 20 years ago Qbn was an overflow dormitory town for Canberra where lower income public servants and blue collar workers resided. (There was even a large abbattoir on the outskirts). Since then it has been surrounded with several “McMansion” developments, especiall22y Jerrabomberra. These developments appeal especially to the kind of people who are a little irked with the orderliness and regulation of Canberra suburbia and like the more laissez faire attitude of NSW planning regulations. I suggest these people are slightly biased against ALP, but not completely so. In any case, in the years to come, these developments including the recently approved Tralee and Googong townships will make up an ever increasing proportion of the northern portion of the electorate, and will force further redistributions of the electorate.
As to Mikes chances, I think he would on current polling struggle to hold because as Adam states, when a swing arrives, not much holds against it. The big BUT is however he is well known, well regardsd, well organised within the electorate, and has about 11 months to work on his campaign. He is by all reports a hard worker, has plenty of well qualified people who volunteer for him, many of whom might now live in Canberra/Qbn but originate in the rural regions of the electorate and so assist in keeping him abreastb of concerns and visible in even the smallest communities.
If the ALP have to field any other candidate, they are undoubtedly buggared.
This is an amateurs view.
I agree, Briefly. The Coalition are about 12 months short of being competitive. They can’t fight the way they are doing right now in a year’s time.
The clincher for me was the speculation that Gillard might call an election for early next year. That’s just wish-fulfilment from the other side, on a par with the ‘Turnbull will save us all’ talk. Push the battle into election mode now and the Coalition have enough material to maybe get them over the line.
If I was to hazard a guess for next year, it’s that the OM will put all their effort into creating the impression the Coalition are viable as a party, because that support will be sorely needed. And that will prevent them losing the election too badly.
zoomster:
William’s analysis if we add in the seats of Rob O and Tony Windsor comes pretty close to 85 seats for the LNP and 65 seats for the ALP (lets make the maths simple).
How is that situation commonly described?
A. A 20 seat majority
B. A 10 seat majority
C. A 20 seat margin
D. A 10 seat margin
Let me tell you all, I am not a big fan of these semantics actually, but I think if a poster is being patronised (ala zoomster and rua the other day) then the patronisee is well within their rights to highlight when the patroniser is wrong!
Don’t you all agree?
zoomster@610
No zoomster. Why do you persist in this folly?
They have a majority of 18. The numbers are 6 vs 24. The margin (difference) is 18.
But the other side have only to win back 9 to be even and any number greater than 9 puts them ahead.
zoomster@612
I never trust any so called ‘leaked’ internal polls.
I may discuss them hypothetically but I don’t believe them unless supported by other strong evidence.
Michael
Appreciate the feedback.
[there has been a Tony Abbott sighting, at the Indian-Australia Business Council dinner.
No sign of Margi or kids in tow.
https://twitter.com/TonyAbbottMHR/status/274827770289340416/photo/1 ]
no sign of his tailor either.
Jacket sleeves too long. Very bunched down from the button. Mind you, could be just his very odd stance – not exactly a picture of relaxed comfort!
[I am told by several arab friends that the “sbstention” vote won’t change aything as Gillard’s hard-line support of Israel damns her in the eyes of many voters there(usually a Labor voting group)]
Soothsayers Weekly has more insight than the Greens-voting partisans on PB. Labor is going to lose western Sydney because of an obscure UN vote which hardly got any media attention in this country? Cancel christmas.
The chattering classes where you are might be tsk-tsking about that UN vote, but I’m pretty confident most people wouldn’t really care, or even know about it.
Mod Lib@615
Both A and C.
I want a Koala stamp.
[there has been a Tony Abbott sighting, at the Indian-Australia Business Council dinner]
If Malcolm is there, it might turn out to be the Political Murder on the Indian-Australia Business Council Express.
Federal galaxy poll
54-46 2PP to the coalition
1015 sample. Thursday-Friday
Ha ha – Galaxy to the rescue!
I get Bob Carr’s newsletters/blogs and I can see no difference in style between these and the writings of “Sprocket”.
Are they the same person?
confessions@621
I am sure it got plenty of attention in the Arab and Jewish communities which is what deblonay was discussing.
I don’t believe in pandering to ethnic communities but in doing the ‘right’ thing. In this case, we squibbed it.
[I never trust any so called ‘leaked’ internal polls.]
More hilarity. Only this morning you were attacking those of us criticising spur for once again (second weekend in a row btw) shopping around those reports of leaked internal polling.
Instead of mindlessly lashing out at other commenters because of your own partisan bias, perhaps you should be asking spur why he/she sees such validity in those figures, if you really were distrusting of leaked, internal polls.
dany le roux@626
I think the gravatar tells a story. 😉
[Both A and C.
I want a Koala stamp.]
🙂
Don’t rush zoomster- he has to run through his hands twice remember?
[Ha ha – Galaxy to the rescue!]
Yep.
You know the tune, cue the usual suspects. 😆
bemused
OK, so we’re talking pears and apples.
ModLib’s original post confused me – it’s clear that we’re looking at different figures on the same table.
It’s quite common to read of ‘governments with a one seat majority’.
I’ve always regarded the difference between the number of seats held (24 – 6) as the margin, and the difference between the number of seats needed to govern and those held (24-15) as the majority.
ModLib used both terms to mean the same thing.
And what about your gravitar Bemused?
confessions@628
Seeing “Rudd People” again?
It clouds your vision.
Notice how the Galaxy Poll is commissioned when it’s believed Labor has had a bad week. I can’t think of a time when it has been commissioned when it’s been thought the Libs have had a bad time of it.
Am I being unfair?
..and I hasten to say, ModLib may be right to do so.
It seems strange, then, that we use two different terms to describe the same number.
Considering Newspoll + Morgan are same I think Galaxy is an outsider.
zoomster@632
See my 622.
You are hopelessly confused. I hope your campaign has a good ‘numbers person’. 😛
[Seeing “Rudd People” again?]
No, asking a genuine question, which it appears you’re unable to answer.
If you really are distrusting of leaked internal polling, why go out of your way to attack those raising questions about a commenter openly shopping them around as if they have meaning?
As I said to start with, fess, the leaked internal polls were fine when pseph was using them!
dany le roux@633
Touché. 😀
I will leave you to wonder.
bemused
So you can’t explain how the two terms differ, I take it?
How is ‘margin’ different from ‘majority’?
@Gary/635
Galaxy was published by News ltd – expect bias.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/gillards-fightback-stalling-after-year-of-smear-galaxy-poll-reveals/story-fncynkc6-1226528115008
Already articles out faster you can say liar.
confessions@639
Oh? And when did I do that?
True internal polling is not release publicly so it leaves it open to people to claim whatever they like about supposed internal polling.
Joining in a conversation about some such numbers is not necessarily implying acceptance of their bona-fides or believing their numbers.
Aha! Google is your friend.
‘Margin’ is the the margin of majority – that is, the number you get above 50%.
So – in our example of 30 seats – the margin is 9.
zoomster@642
See my 622. They are the same.
[620
Laocoon
there has been a Tony Abbott sighting, at the Indian-Australia Business Council dinner.
No sign of Margi or kids in tow.
https://twitter.com/TonyAbbottMHR/status/274827770289340416/photo/1
no sign of his tailor either.
Jacket sleeves too long. Very bunched down from the button. Mind you, could be just his very odd stance – not exactly a picture of relaxed comfort!]
Did he have his balls in his pocket or had he left them pickling at Parliament House.
Labor will win the next election for a number of reasons but the main two next year will be climate change and asylum seeker policy.
A hot summer and the dawning realisation that warming is real will leave the liberals exposed on this issue. Tied into the fact that emissions will be reduced in this calender year (in large part to the renewable energy target and small part to the carbon price) and a fear campaign on Abbott’s innefective and costly policyand many undecideds will fall the ALP’s way.
When labor reintroduce Malaysia and possibly a Thailand and/or Indonesian solution and LNP try to block these measures the Lindsay demographic will flip 180 degrees.
A work choices redux and the BISONs will do the rest.
zoomster:
How about we converse like adults without being patronising from now on eh?
More stories about statistical noise.