GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has plugged a hole in the Newspoll and Nielsen schedules with a federal poll conducted from 1015 respondents on Wednesday and Thursday (UPDATE: Make that Thursday and Friday – The Management). The result is at the low end of Labor’s recent form, with the Coalition leading 48% to 34% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred, compared with 47% to 35% and 53-47 in the Galaxy poll of a month ago. The Greens vote is steady on 11%.
Galaxy also grapples with the AWU matter, with what to my mind are problematic results. Poll questions are most effective when gauging basic affective responses, namely positive or negative feelings towards a person or thing, and mutually exclusive choices, such as preferences out of political parties or election candidates. On this score, the best question to emerge so far has been Morgan’s effort on approval or disapproval of the Prime Minister’s handling of the controversy. Difficulties emerge where the range of potential opinions is open-ended, as too much depends on the choices offered by the pollster.
A case in point is Galaxy’s question on whether Gillard had “lied” (31%), been “open and honest” (21%) or, as a middle course, been “economical with the truth” (31%). Particularly where complex or half-understood issues are involved, choices like this are known to activate the strategy of “satisficing” (“choosing the easiest response because it requires less thinking”, according one of the pithier definitions available). This results in a bias towards intermediate responses, in this case the “economical with the truth” option.
I have similar doubts about Galaxy’s question as to whether respondents believed Gillard “should provide a full account of her involvement through a statement in parliament”, an over-elaborate proposition that feels tailored towards eliciting a positive response. Sixty per cent of respondents duly gave it one, although it is clear the thought would have occurred to few of them before being put to them by the interviewer. Only 26% offered that such a statement was unnecessary, with 14% undecided.
Then there is the finding that 26% of respondents said the issue had made them less likely to vote Labor. Like any such question, this would have attracted many positive responses from those whose pre-existing chance of voting Labor was zero. However, the question at least allows us to compare the results to those of similarly framed questions in the past. In July, a Galaxy poll found that 33% were less likely to vote Labor because of the budget. In January, 39% of respondents to a Westpoll survey said power price hikes had made them less likely to vote for the Barnett government. In July of last year, The Australian reported polling by UMR Research (commissioned, it must be noted, by Clubs Australia) had 23% of voters less likely to vote Labor due to mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. And a month after Kevin Rudd was deposed as Prime Minister in June 2010, Nielsen found the proportion saying they were less likely to vote Labor as a result was similar to today’s finding: 25%.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports News Limited has published a further result from the Galaxy poll, a four-way preferred prime minister question which has Kevin Rudd on 27%, Malcolm Turnbull on 23%, Julia Gillard on 18% and Tony Abbott on 17%.
vote1maxine:
[One of the minor parties had a gay candidate whose campaign motto was “I got my eye on Billie’s seat”. ]
I’ve told that story here and over at LP before. His poster, on the pole outside our house drove my mother nuts, despite her disdain for Billy McMahon. I forget the fellow’s name, but had a very 70’s-style hippie look with beard.
Confessions @70
Please don’t tell me you spent over two hours last night coming up with “how does it feel?” in response to me asking you where Bemused and I have said something sexist. The fact is, we haven’t so don’t go making unhinged accusations when you know there’s no substance to them
Seems like this Galaxy push-poll serves no other purpose than that of shoring up Tony, and is not an accurate assessment of anything.
The question regarding whether Julia Gillard “should provide a full account of her involvement through a statement in parliament” seems to be a piece of push-polling, designed to elicit a positive response and provide an excuse / cover for the Austrlain to keep the story going. Either that or the survey was very sloppily designed.
FTR, I am willing to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Whitlam government’s election. It certainly wasn’t a perfect ALP government, with hindsight, but at the time, I thought it damned near was. Those were times of optimism and hope, and although we were naive, it is sad that that optimism has never returned, and most probably, never will.
Galaxy seems to be polling company for hire, now doing private work for Clive Palmer
[JOHN Bjelke-Petersen, son of former premier Sir Joh, is being lined up as a federal election candidate as the likelihood of billionaire businessman Clive Palmer launching his own political party gathers momentum.
The Sunday Mail has obtained the results of a Galaxy Research poll taken on Tuesday and Wednesday in the seat of Maranoa, which shows that longtime LNP MP Bruce Scott would face a strong challenge from Mr Bjelke-Petersen.
The result will add fuel to the political ambitions of mining magnate Mr Palmer who is expected to decide over the next week or so whether to start a new party following his spectacular split from the LNP.
]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/sir-johs-son-and-clive-palmer-a-big-worry-for-lnp-government/story-e6freoof-1226528044796
sprocket_
[Galaxy seems to be polling company for hire]
I think all the poling companies are for hire otherwise they wouldn’t be around for long.
ModLib
[If a candidate wins 52-48 they are sitting on a 2% margin.
If a party wins 85 seats to 65 they are sitting on a 20 seat majority.]
After my researches last night, I agree with you.
So it’s you, me, William and the dictionary versus bemused.
Obviously bemused is RIGHT, then.
Excellent toon of Cameron,Leveson + Murdoch
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cartoon/2012/dec/01/david-cameron-leveson-report-cartoon
Forty years? Imagine that. I actually remember the day. It was hot and sunny. I had completed my last exams the day before and went to Cronulla beach where I met up with some friends from Uni. We were eagerly anticipating the end of the stodgy old Coalition government that had been in power forever. Good times – optimism, hope, no one worried about the economy or unemployment and better days seemed to be just ahead.
Unfortunately Whitlam’s government suffered from a combination of inexperience and lack of discipline. Also, unlike the case for John Howard, it turned out that the times did not suit Gough Whitlam. The ALP and Australia would have been better off had the ALP been able to grab a term or two during the 50’s and 60’s. That being said, Gough Whitlam did not cause the 1973 Yom Kipper War and the subsequent oil shock and recession, although his government should have dealt with these external shocks far better than it did. But even so, Gough Whitlam’s short term in office changed the country very much for the better in my opinion.
The candidate in Lowe was the late David Widdup.
Love the irony of all of those who used to reject Galaxy back in the pre 2007 days – when it was often the only poll showing any signs that Howard would survive – now accepting it as the Voice of Truth.
Good morning all.
Mark Latham is doing well against Paul Kelly and Nick Minchin. Am so glad he’s back inside the tent.
[The fact is, we haven’t so don’t go making unhinged accusations]
Oh don’t make me laugh! 😆
bemused spends the better part of his time on this blog picking fights with people by doing nothing BUT making unhinged accusations about other commenters. “Seeing Rudd people” for eg, used by you to denigrate others when you know as well as the rest of us that ‘seeing Rudd people’ (to put it like that) is quite justified after the man’s behaviour the last 2+ years.
confessions,
Can you tell us what Mark Latham said when Kelly and Minchin threw the Galaxy poll results at him? (As I assume they would have)
Aguirre @86
Dont post here too often anymore but do read occasionally.
Pissed myself laughing at your summary ..and agree.
[Seems like this Galaxy push-poll serves no other purpose than that of shoring up Tony]
It certainly does. It is also intended to deflect attention away from Abbott’s problems. Why mention a few legal issues when the ladies and gentlemen of the press can bray about yet another dodgy poll result.
The Ramjan/Koger defamation action goes to the Supreme Court of NSW tomorrow morning at 9.30. Nothing much will happen, it’s just a door opener. But you can bet that not a word will be mentioned by the OM. The real fun will start in the new year, Abbott will be a witness and you can also bet the OM won’t have much to say about that either.
Then there’s Tony’s other worry. John Setka’s defamation action against Abbott is still in its early stages. It will go to trial next year. If it isn’t resolved quickly Tony could find himself in the middle of a trial during the election campaign. No wonder he’s so desperate to bring on an early election.
The whole S&G/get rid of Julia Gillard thing was about more than Abbott wanting to be PM. It was even more about getting Abbott safely into government before all his legal problems blossomed. It didn’t work.
C@t:
They are too busy obsessing over AWU-Gillard to worry about other matters.
I don’t really mind Galaxy doing what they’re doing. Misreporting the mood in the electorate doesn’t have much of an effect on the trend. If they were to somehow bootstrap the issue into something that can capture the public imagination we might see a proper shift back. But at this stage we’ve passed through the ‘Gillard has done something’ phase, and the ‘well, she has to answer questions anyway’ phase; we’re now onto the ‘if you look at it this way, some people still think Gillard has something to answer’ phase.
It’s just a way to pretend that people care about it more than they do.
Latham: “George Brandis, SC DH”
😀
[leone
Posted Sunday, December 2, 2012 at 8:54 am | PERMALINK
Seems like this Galaxy push-poll serves no other purpose than that of shoring up Tony
It certainly does. It is also intended to deflect attention away from Abbott’s problems. Why mention a few legal issues when the ladies and gentlemen of the press can bray about yet another dodgy poll result.
The Ramjan/Koger defamation action goes to the Supreme Court of NSW tomorrow morning at 9.30. Nothing much will happen, it’s just a door opener. But you can bet that not a word will be mentioned by the OM. The real fun will start in the new year, Abbott will be a witness and you can also bet the OM won’t have much to say about that either.
Then there’s Tony’s other worry. John Setka’s defamation action against Abbott is still in its early stages. It will go to trial next year. If it isn’t resolved quickly Tony could find himself in the middle of a trial during the election campaign. No wonder he’s so desperate to bring on an early election.
The whole S&G/get rid of Julia Gillard thing was about more than Abbott wanting to be PM. It was even more about getting Abbott safely into government before all his legal problems blossomed. It didn’t work.]
I tweeted earlier about Ramjan v Kroger & Abbott in background + other Court case coming up, asked if MSM was going to report it? came back from my walk all hot & sweaty and found a lot of reweets Now off for a shower
In the Middle East the three base line rules are ‘might makes right’, ‘winner takes all’ and ‘when in doubt, lie’.
There are degrees and extents, and variations and exceptions, but they are degrees and extents, and variations and exceptions.
If the arabs had won the 1948 war there would be few, if any jews left north of Eqygpt, west of Jordan and south of Lebanon and Syria. Those remaining would be living on sufferance.
The Right would be doing business with the arab regimes. The Left would be bemoaning the vicious nature of the arab tyrannies and wringing its hands over the fate of the jews.
You know it makes sense.
And let’s not forget – the object of the AWU smear was to drive Gillard out of the PM-ship through widespread outrage. OM were almost literally licking their lips just a week ago.
Now we’re down to seconding the shiftiest polling unit around to try to trick us into believing that it’s had some sort of an impact. Not quite what they hoped for.
lol mari @ 121
Andrew Kotsaris is going to have a stint on Insiders this morning.
Cleopatra has escaped from her tomb (again)
Got Sunrise 7 on in the background. The Poll was being mentioned as part of the news updates, but the 9am one seems to have dropped it, in favour of a mention of this. Poll could be old news by the end of the day. This poll was commissioned while the beat up was still “hot”, but I have a feeling the AWU story could be dropped across most media very soon, especially with their potentential star witness (actually the one probably the most guilty of any fraud, hence immunity requests) Blewitt so throughroughly disgraced.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/new-plan-could-help-families-save-250-a-year-on-power/story-e6frg12c-1226528148529
[New plan could help families save $250 a year on power
by: Samantha Maiden
From: The Sunday Times
December 01, 2012 7:50PM
FAMILIES could save up to $250 a year on electricity bills under a plan to give consumers greater choice and the power to question skyrocketing prices.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard will announce today a plan to stop the “gold plating”, or overinvestment in poles and wires that has led to big price hikes, and to develop new independent national reliability standards.
For the first time, a Consumer Challenge Panel will be established to ensure consumers can question electricity network businesses about the gold plating.]
more in the article
Confessions
So being sexist in your view is to suggest someone is seeing “Rudd people” … Come off it. Firstly that’s not sexist and secondly the amount of denigrating of people who show the slightest amount of support of Rudd or criticism of the ALP is absurd
We’re are doomed already, Nikki has called it.
Ms Milne being interviewed on Insiders.
confessions@70
confessions now sees “Sexist Rudd People”.
spur:
I did not say that, and kindly don’t verbal me.
Hubby and I went to the Opera House on Friday night to see Sarah Silverman. I hoped it would be amusing. I’d seen her clip on the Obama election campaign on YouTube, and hubby had suggested we go along on the strength of it.
It was very mediocre and low brow — what one might have expected for an audience of people who though 18 were still developmentally and hormonally 14. Perversely, people who were apparently well above 18 and middle class, based on the queue for drinks at the post Will Anderson intermission and later when we left, were belly laughing at nothing.
Weird…
Effective stand up comedy is clearly not about clever observation and justaposition of incongruent truths. Hubby and I sat there astonished at the banality of it all.
Insiders missing out…..Gillard and Abbott on Sunday morning TV and all Insiders gets is Milne!!!!!
Well, the panel finished off by attacking the govt over NDIS and Gonski. Paul Kelly and Nick Minchin have “serious reservations” about the way Labor is governing, whereas Latham managed to conclude it’s a ‘watch this space’ thing.
So all in all, nothing gained whatsoever from watching the show.
Mod…. we all know that Tone won’t go on the Insiders for a Live interview
tony abbott’s 2013 is going to be the year of going to court
not a good look for the leader of the opposition in and out of court during an election year
[oyster
Posted Sunday, December 2, 2012 at 9:21 am | PERMALINK
tony abbott’s 2013 is going to be the year of going to court]
The ongoing NSW ALP (Always) Right saga is going to be gold for the LNP in 2013.
Obeid: the gift that keeps on giving 🙂
I see Christine Milne on Insiders still seeking to provide aid and comfort to the People Traffickers in Indonesia and the Emotional Blackmailers on Nauru.
Get real!
ML@138,
The ongoing NSW ALP (Always) Right saga is going to be gold for the LNP in 2013.
Because we all know that the Coalition are functionally incapable of winning an election around policy.
The point Andrew is missing on Insiders is how many of those 28 previous elections started with the government having less than 76 seats?
jeffemu@88
My only recall of the name ‘Kelly’ while at Bega was as the offender in the “Bega Bombing” in 1957.
This occurred just before my family moved to Bega and was a shocking crime.
I attended school with the sole survivor of the bombing.
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2007/07/30/1992004.htm
Good point by Barrie about Abbott being an over-exaggerator. Labor need to start emphasising that.
ModLib
An awful lot of parties have formed government after going into the election with far less seats then their opponents!
[zoomster
Posted Sunday, December 2, 2012 at 9:30 am | PERMALINK
ModLib
An awful lot of parties have formed government after going into the election with far less seats then their opponents!]
Examples?
Morning all
Thanks Leroy for the article by Sam Maiden. Interesting
c@t,
[I see Christine Milne on Insiders still seeking to provide aid and comfort to the People Traffickers in Indonesia and the Emotional Blackmailers on Nauru.]
Milne is a boring broken record. She offers a lot of criticism and no solutions and always too willing to cut off her nose to spite her face.
Mr Cassidy, from time-to-time, stopping Ms Savva from verballing the truth.
Malcolm Farr rubbishing Savva’s comments about Abbott.
Niki Savva is the new Piers Ackerman.