GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has plugged a hole in the Newspoll and Nielsen schedules with a federal poll conducted from 1015 respondents on Wednesday and Thursday (UPDATE: Make that Thursday and Friday – The Management). The result is at the low end of Labor’s recent form, with the Coalition leading 48% to 34% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred, compared with 47% to 35% and 53-47 in the Galaxy poll of a month ago. The Greens vote is steady on 11%.
Galaxy also grapples with the AWU matter, with what to my mind are problematic results. Poll questions are most effective when gauging basic affective responses, namely positive or negative feelings towards a person or thing, and mutually exclusive choices, such as preferences out of political parties or election candidates. On this score, the best question to emerge so far has been Morgan’s effort on approval or disapproval of the Prime Minister’s handling of the controversy. Difficulties emerge where the range of potential opinions is open-ended, as too much depends on the choices offered by the pollster.
A case in point is Galaxy’s question on whether Gillard had “lied” (31%), been “open and honest” (21%) or, as a middle course, been “economical with the truth” (31%). Particularly where complex or half-understood issues are involved, choices like this are known to activate the strategy of “satisficing” (“choosing the easiest response because it requires less thinking”, according one of the pithier definitions available). This results in a bias towards intermediate responses, in this case the “economical with the truth” option.
I have similar doubts about Galaxy’s question as to whether respondents believed Gillard “should provide a full account of her involvement through a statement in parliament”, an over-elaborate proposition that feels tailored towards eliciting a positive response. Sixty per cent of respondents duly gave it one, although it is clear the thought would have occurred to few of them before being put to them by the interviewer. Only 26% offered that such a statement was unnecessary, with 14% undecided.
Then there is the finding that 26% of respondents said the issue had made them less likely to vote Labor. Like any such question, this would have attracted many positive responses from those whose pre-existing chance of voting Labor was zero. However, the question at least allows us to compare the results to those of similarly framed questions in the past. In July, a Galaxy poll found that 33% were less likely to vote Labor because of the budget. In January, 39% of respondents to a Westpoll survey said power price hikes had made them less likely to vote for the Barnett government. In July of last year, The Australian reported polling by UMR Research (commissioned, it must be noted, by Clubs Australia) had 23% of voters less likely to vote Labor due to mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. And a month after Kevin Rudd was deposed as Prime Minister in June 2010, Nielsen found the proportion saying they were less likely to vote Labor as a result was similar to today’s finding: 25%.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports News Limited has published a further result from the Galaxy poll, a four-way preferred prime minister question which has Kevin Rudd on 27%, Malcolm Turnbull on 23%, Julia Gillard on 18% and Tony Abbott on 17%.
[you and bemused and others about rudd too much bs and not enough discussions about other stuff.]
Of FFS, what you mean is that the discussion isn’t one which you can readily insert your comments into.
Not my fault.
@confessions/51
No need to insert myself, you already inserted your own comments. I’m just returning the favor.
Either way there are plenty of other things to discuss including Newman self destruction.
confessions@50
You did. As you usually do when you are losing an argument.
On this occasion @ 23. Need a reminder?
[spur;
You are aligned with anti Labor trolls like TLM and sexist yesterday’s people like bemused. How does that feel?]
Confessions @50
You said “You are aligned with anti Labor trolls like TLM and sexist yesterday’s people like bemused. How does that feel?”
I asked “Sexist?” you said “yes”
Of course you would say “Huh”.
Parting thought for the day: PM Netanyahu has announced 3,000 new housing approvals in the settlement corridor east of Jerusalem. This development, when completed, will create a sold block of Israeli housing from Jerusalem to Maale Adumim. The symbolism of this is pretty transparent. The Palestinians win their vote at the UN, which gains them exactly nothing, while continuing to lose ground where it matters, in the West Bank. Support from North Korea and Yemen and Venezuela at the UN is no substitute for dealing with the people who actually control the land, namely Israel. The longer the Palestinians delay recognising Israel, and the longer they keep trying to find a road to statehood that relies on stunts and avoids direct negotiations with Israel, the weaker their position on the ground becomes. Good night.
You and your gravitar may well say “Huh”.
dany le roux@55
I said “Huh?” because I had no idea what you were on about.
spur212
I think confessions has now completely lost the plot.
Psephos,
I can’t say I’m exactly impressed by that sort of behavior from Israel. It may be a democracy but it does have its right wing dickheads too.
psephos,
I have a Google translator on my phone with a spoken phrase or word facility. If you put in the English “palestinian” you get something which resembles “Philistine” in English when spoken in Arabic.
Traditionally in English a “Philistine” refers to a person of low cultural values who may in fact not live in the Middle East at all and could also possibly be a Bogan.
Are you sure you are not opportunistically racially discriminating here Psephos?
Fcuk have I party pooped. Sorry socialists.
M daughter and her family (husband in the ADF). Do you know what we talked about? Music!
Got a few insights on the Darwin affair: there will be some very sorry arses in Darwin.
FAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRKKKKKKKKKKKKK
West Ham whooped Chelsea 3-1!
With a bit of luck, Chelsea will be in the Championship in 2015.
Am I talking to the trees?
Cheers, trees.
Just keep on what you are doing.
[The longer the Palestinians delay recognising Israel, and the longer they keep trying to find a road to statehood that relies on stunts and avoids direct negotiations with Israel, the weaker their position on the ground becomes. Good night.]
And the day the Palestinians recognise Israel, the Israelis will announce some more housing in the West Bank. 🙁
The Palestinians do need to recognise Israel, and the Israelis need to withdraw some of their settlers from the West Bank.
Dont know what the frack they are going to do about Jerusalem??
Jerusalem should be an intenational city ///sacred to the three faiths of Islam/Judaism abd Christianity….but the Jews wnat to drive all the other groups from The Holy City and make it a Jewish capital;…in the face of major world opposition…but that is their way…as the new announcement of more settlements is made in the hours after the UN decision….to spit in the face of world opinion’
[You said “You are aligned with anti Labor trolls like TLM and sexist yesterday’s people like bemused. How does that feel?”
I asked “Sexist?” you said “yes”]
Yes. And? How does it feel?
[Leveson law would undermine Britain on world stage, says William Hague
Foreign secretary says statutory underpinning of press regulation would damage UK’s ability to promote free speech]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/dec/01/leveson-law-world-stage-hague
FFS – The UK Conservatives are a ‘piece of work’.
surely people can not take this poll as serious
this poll done by news ltd
just make the case why new media laws need to come in
With Abbott’s slush fund coming out
will news ltd defend abbott
Galaxy does its questions for dollars poll again. Why bother? The Terror don’t need a poll to write garbage.
Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, December 1, 2012 at 11:33 pm | Permalink
If a candidate wins 52-48 they are sitting on a 2% margin.
If a party wins 85 seats to 65 they are sitting on a 20 seat majority-
————–
Abbott’s slush fund in now out
news ltd /Abbott coaliton have themselves to blame for losing the election
From Sam Maiden’s article.
[Primary vote support for the ALP was just 34 per cent a drop of 1 per cent since the last Galaxy survey on November 2-4 but within the poll’s margin of error.
Support for the Coalition increased from 47 to 48 per cent and support for the Greens was unchanged at 11 per cent. Nearly 10 per cent of those surveyed were uncommitted.]
So Evan has an orgasm. 😆
honestly news ltd pays for a poll on this dirt file , tell you something the coalition have nothing
Gillard and labor will retain government
[bemused
Posted Sunday, December 2, 2012 at 12:17 am | Permalink
…
Zoid, beyond my jibe about confessions seeing “Rudd People”, I have not raised him tonight. Simple reason – at the present time there is nothing new to be said.]
Heard Rudd on the ABC two days ago pretenting he was the foreign minister, poor delusion man.
ruawake – And the Coalition ‘+1’ is equally within the MOE.
Bearing in mind some of the questions this is actually GOOD.
Psephos
[
. Support from North Korea and Yemen and Venezuela…
]
The list you chose says all that need to be said about your views on the middle east. You were wrong 40 years ago and you still wrong, just on slightly different points of the political circle.
After reading Psephos’s #56 post it is of little wonder that they will be still killing each other in the Middle East well after I have died.
Ratsars @ 82
That’s a fair interpretation.
Morning Dawn Patrolers & Bludgers
Happy 40th Anniversary of the Election of the Whitlam Government!!!
another suspicious thing from this news ltd paid dirt file poll 29-30 November
was the poll close before question time on thursday
William has said most of what I was thinking about the Galaxy poll. The questions are framed so as to supply an outcome for the Coalition.
A Galaxy poll always seems to turn up when the Coalition are in need of some good news, or require a bit of oxygen for whatever line they’re running.
They’ve given “she lied”, “she was open and honest” and a middle-ground response for that question. But the positive response for Gillard sets the bar high (they could have just offered “she told the truth” for instance) and the middle-ground response is negative anyway. You have to choose between two not-quite-right responses.
Let’s say – as Bushfire Bill has suggested – that there are likely a couple of unexplained areas in Gillard’s account, and she’s probably done or known a couple of minor things; but that these things don’t matter. So, ‘open and honest’ or ‘economical with the truth’ for him? There should be something in between the two.
The other thing is that some bright spark in News Ltd can argue that ‘being economical with the truth’ is the same as lying. And that therefore 52% of the population thought she lied.
Also, what is Gillard supposed to have lied about? Nobody’s established anything concrete, despite weeks of concerted effort – with a PM who has been quite upfront and willing to answer any question put. What Galaxy are really asking here is, “we’ve been accusing Gillard of lying about something indeterminate for a while now, and now we need your help; has our campaign got through to you yet?”
CTar1 @# 83
That’s a fair interpretation.
Sad!
I wish I was wrong.
There is no doubt the Psephos will flay my comments with his eloquence but to my mind unless attitudes like this change many more will die.
Bemused… re Peter Kelly.
Kelly and his brother played in the Premiership winning Eden sides. I believe brother Gerard was Captain.
Here is a pic of the 1978 side. Kelly is 3rd from left centre row, brother Gerard on his left.
Here is Peter Kelly’s page on that brilliant (wink wink)rugby league website http://www.eraofthebiff.com
Kelly’s page
http://www.eraofthebiff.com/Default.aspx?PageID=7112430&Page=2&A=PhotoGallery&PID=18586&Items=6
Cheers
December 2nd 1972 was my first election handing out HTV. It was in the electorate of Lowe, Billy Machon’s seat. Bill Fischer Q.C. was the Labor candidate. One of the minor parties had a gay candidate whose campaign motto was “I got my eye on Billie’s seat”. Billie Machon called around at my polling booth at Burwood Public School to thank his both workers. I challenged him to a game of squash but looking at the scrawny 17 year old, he correctly surmised that it would be a too uneven a match and declined.
The question about whether Gillard “should provide a full account of her involvement through a statement in parliament” is a nasty piece of work too. It operates on the presumption that she hasn’t been ‘open and honest’ and asks you whether she should be. Having pushed you in that direction, they can take advantage of there being no Parliament sitting until February to pile pressure on Gillard over summer.
And they should never ask whether an issue would make you more or less likely to vote for a certain party. The answer to that question can be inferred from the PV and 2PP figures.
I see them smelly painful pavlovian doggys are out in force last night furiously resurrecting #Ruddstoration and salivating over a blatantly push poll such as Galaxy. #HowPatheticMent
Ratsars
[There is no doubt the Psephos will flay my comments with his eloquence but to my mind unless attitudes like this change many more will die.]
Just because someones ‘mouth’ works does not mean they are right, no matter how sure they are of it.
Murdoch is set to name Aust-born Robert Thomson as his new CEO. I bet Mark Scott of #TheirABC is very disappointed he didnt get the gig
The only way the Abbott led coalition can win the election in 2013
if news ltd was doing the polling on election day
Wot!!!!!! The Wobblebys won with a last second TRY Vs Wales & The Poms beat the AllBlacks. All we need now is to bowl out SA before lunch
William and Aguirre are correct in their analysis of the Galaxy poll, but neither call it for what it is
this is blatant Push Polling.
Q: are you aware of “specific wrongdoing by candidate X”
Q; what is your opinion of that wrongdoing
Questions written by NewsLtd to further their regime change campaign to further their commercial interests
Tony Abbott was right on one thing, this will be the dirtiest campaign in our memory, and leading the race to the bottom is the Dirty Digger.
[Bernard Keane @BernardKeane
about to join @sunrise7 with Sam Maiden to talk AWU stuff
Expand
57s Judge ‘n Jury rocket Judge ‘n Jury rocket @sprocket___
@BernardKeane @sunrise7 Ask her why #newscorpse is push polling the AWU issue via Galaxy? ]
now here is an example of a “Push Question” by me to Bernard Keane, by using #newscorpse instead of NewsLtd, he might have his opinion of the publisher influenced
This is push polling, but no different to the ‘is Abbott a misogynist’ polls from a few months ago.
Movement is within the MOE and most voters say the last week of parliament won’t sway their vote or they don’t care about it.
Policy policy policy.
[vote1maxine
Posted Sunday, December 2, 2012 at 7:06 am | PERMALINK
Morning Dawn Patrolers & Bludgers
Happy 40th Anniversary of the Election of the Whitlam Government!!!]
Incredible isn’t it? You havn’t posted for a while glad to see you back. How is your MP going, still sleeping in Parliament or appears to be sleeping?