GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has plugged a hole in the Newspoll and Nielsen schedules with a federal poll conducted from 1015 respondents on Wednesday and Thursday (UPDATE: Make that Thursday and Friday – The Management). The result is at the low end of Labor’s recent form, with the Coalition leading 48% to 34% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred, compared with 47% to 35% and 53-47 in the Galaxy poll of a month ago. The Greens vote is steady on 11%.
Galaxy also grapples with the AWU matter, with what to my mind are problematic results. Poll questions are most effective when gauging basic affective responses, namely positive or negative feelings towards a person or thing, and mutually exclusive choices, such as preferences out of political parties or election candidates. On this score, the best question to emerge so far has been Morgan’s effort on approval or disapproval of the Prime Minister’s handling of the controversy. Difficulties emerge where the range of potential opinions is open-ended, as too much depends on the choices offered by the pollster.
A case in point is Galaxy’s question on whether Gillard had “lied” (31%), been “open and honest” (21%) or, as a middle course, been “economical with the truth” (31%). Particularly where complex or half-understood issues are involved, choices like this are known to activate the strategy of “satisficing” (“choosing the easiest response because it requires less thinking”, according one of the pithier definitions available). This results in a bias towards intermediate responses, in this case the “economical with the truth” option.
I have similar doubts about Galaxy’s question as to whether respondents believed Gillard “should provide a full account of her involvement through a statement in parliament”, an over-elaborate proposition that feels tailored towards eliciting a positive response. Sixty per cent of respondents duly gave it one, although it is clear the thought would have occurred to few of them before being put to them by the interviewer. Only 26% offered that such a statement was unnecessary, with 14% undecided.
Then there is the finding that 26% of respondents said the issue had made them less likely to vote Labor. Like any such question, this would have attracted many positive responses from those whose pre-existing chance of voting Labor was zero. However, the question at least allows us to compare the results to those of similarly framed questions in the past. In July, a Galaxy poll found that 33% were less likely to vote Labor because of the budget. In January, 39% of respondents to a Westpoll survey said power price hikes had made them less likely to vote for the Barnett government. In July of last year, The Australian reported polling by UMR Research (commissioned, it must be noted, by Clubs Australia) had 23% of voters less likely to vote Labor due to mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. And a month after Kevin Rudd was deposed as Prime Minister in June 2010, Nielsen found the proportion saying they were less likely to vote Labor as a result was similar to today’s finding: 25%.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports News Limited has published a further result from the Galaxy poll, a four-way preferred prime minister question which has Kevin Rudd on 27%, Malcolm Turnbull on 23%, Julia Gillard on 18% and Tony Abbott on 17%.
Hi
If a candidate wins 52-48 they are sitting on a 2% margin.
If a party wins 85 seats to 65 they are sitting on a 20 seat majority.
Repeat from previous thread. Wouldn’t want confessions to miss it.
bemused
Posted Saturday, December 1, 2012 at 11:30 pm | PERMALINK
confessions@705
So where haven’t I applauded the achievements of the ALP Government?
[Ummm, when was the last time you applauded the govt for an achievement?
Thank you, I rest my case.]
Whenever there is something to say that has not already been said by someone else.
I have repeatedly said the PM has done absolutely nothing wrong over the AWU matter and written detailed reasons. Didn’t notice?
No case to rest.
Mod Lib@2
WRONG
[I am not being gamed by internal polling.]
Yes you are. You’ve been called out twice now for shopping around reports of NSW Labor right internal polling, yet you continue to do so.
bemused can’t ask you why, so I will: Why?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/mps-behaving-badly–a-year-best-forgotten-20121130-2amcj.html
What a vacuous little snit Lenore has become, or is now required as which to pose. Sad.
funny day for a poll
and well why put it up
why can it not go under morgan
just wondering william
Confessions
From the previous thread
Confessions
I am not being gamed by internal polling. I actually believe most of the ALP’s problems are self inflicted and won’t be solved until the organisation has been reformed (very doubtful it will happen under the current leadership) in order to be more open to the 21st Century instead of being stuck focusing on the blue collar, manufacturing, industrial economy and constantly chasing Tony Abbott on the values debate instead of defining what the party stands for (currently it’s “we are us”) and having a consistent, inspiring and connected policy story backing it up
The hypocrisy of many on here is that when you’ll support people like Albanese when he attacks Farrell and take shots at the SDA and certain factional people when Farrell, Feeney, the SDA et al oppose Rudd with the same level of vitriol shown here and they are the ones in control of a lot of Gillard’s policy decisions and political strategy e.g targeting the rusted on, blue collar union base … And then whenever anyone shows the slightest bit of support for Rudd based on this stuff (the same stuff you all support Albo on) the suggestion is that they should join the Liberal Party. It’s unhinged!
[Whenever there is something to say that has not already been said by someone else.
I have repeatedly said the PM has done absolutely nothing wrong over the AWU matter and written detailed reasons. Didn’t notice?[
OMG is that a goalpost shift? I think it is.
Not only are you unwilling to confront your own agreement with spur relying on leaked internal ALP polling because it supports your view that the leader should be changed, here you are trying to conflate claims you never support Labor policy (because you’re always, ALWAYS too busy picking fights with commenters) with the bogus bullshit about her from OM as if the two things are the same.
For shame, you are so transparent.
confessions@5
The simple reason I don’t ask is because I have seen nothing to support what you are saying. I have seen nothing to cause me to think spur212 has any connection with the NSW Right.
I take the Margaret Whitlam approach to polls. ie They are there to console the politically ignorant in their anxiety that a democratically elected government may lack the traditional and superior expertise of those born to rule and that the poll in question assures them that a large number of their fellow citizens share the same anxiety.
I especially think the latest Galaxy poll is in this category.
Should read Coalition and OM: 54, Labor 46
confessions@9
I don’t recall a single intelligent comment you have made on policy.
[ I have seen nothing to cause me to think spur212 has any connection with the NSW Right.]
That’s not the allegation.
Are there any Ruddistas out there who can mount a logical, sanity-based argument here?
Spur needs leaked internal polling. bemused needs spur and a little fairy dust. Anyone else?
Confessions: tonight’s Galaxy Poll, all the proof we Ruddites need to illustrate our point that Labor can’t win the next election with Gillard as leader.
[I don’t recall a single intelligent comment you have made on policy.]
That’s because you’re too caught up with Rudd As Saviour that you can’t see much less appreciate what a Labor govt is actually doing.
Again I wonder whether you are actually a Labor member. Nothing you say indicates as such.
Confessions
Whatever I say falls into your frame that I’m a “Rudd person” and all the negative things associated with it. In this case, I make a brief philosophical argument for why I support Rudd and you dismiss it as poll driven
When your only tools a hammer you’ll see everything as a nail
FYI I’m from SA, not NSW
Labor ain’t winning with a primary vote of 34, & a 2PP vote of 46. None of the “Julia the anti-misogyny warrrior” or sections of the press gallery fawning all over their girl changes this fact – Labor is losing right now.
Confessions, we know you’ve got a deep pathological hatred of Rudd which colours your judgement, so I don’t take any pronouncements from you too seriously.
confessions@14
You do nothing but see “Rudd People”.
When someone asks when they haven’t applauded the government, well if you look at the 400+ pieces of Legislation passed then the policies put forward by the government.
confessions@16
You peel back another layer of stupidity.
As I have repeatedly said, Rudd has ruled out any challenge and said if anyone else challenges he will support Gillard.
It is only an issue in the hollow of your head.
spur;
You are aligned with anti Labor trolls like TLM and sexist yesterday’s people like bemused. How does that feel?
I think it’s time you broke free from your shackles and joined us in reality.
@TLM
Might I suggest you along with Confessions just give it up with the weekly dose of going back in time.
Right, so the challenge to bemused is simple, yet s/he can’t offer anything of substance in reply.
Noted.
what a shock- Evan has crawled out from under his rock to trumpet the Galaxy result.
What a sad, pathetic man he has become. Once a true Labor supporter, now not worthy of having Labor in his name
[What a vacuous little snit Lenore has become, or is now required as which to pose. Sad]
MM, it’s an example of Mercutio Syndrome (“A plague on both your houses”, Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet).
When someone can’t bring themselves round to criticising the wrong side, but tars both sides with the same brush.
@TLM
I also advise that the Galaxy Poll is commissioned by News Ltd (same people that Ran against Rudd).
Newspoll and Morgan have similar statistics.
confessions@23
Oh gawd… that one almost deserves framing.
No-one in their right mind could seriously call spur a troll.
So where am I sexist? Or yesterday’s people? Do you discriminate on age? Plenty on here are older than me and some by a considerable margin.
Confessions
Sexist?
Re Polls and Danny a Roux
_____________
Why do people question the polls when they get a result they don’t like ?
In this country in my lifetime of poll- watching I have yet to see then get it wrong in the end game
So Galaxy shows the Libs moving ahead..Danny doesnt’t like that
but that’s the game Danny
I bet Gillard is doing badly in western Sydney(see my 608 post earlier for a reason)
[WRONG]
Perhaps, but ModLib’s understanding of a margin is the same as Antony Green’s and Malcolm Mackerras’s. I would also refer to parliamentary majorities in the same was as ModLib.
Its back to your gravitar Bemused .
For you to speak with such Rudd endorsed authority about challenges its either Therese or the cat speaking.
Will Rudd challenge if he gets a new black cat can you tell us all ?
[Might I suggest you along with Confessions just give it up with the weekly dose of going back in time.]
Oh I see, it’s all about you.
Never mind that i’ve defended you in the past.
Noice.
@confessions/34
No it’s not about me, and it’s not about you either.
Bemused…after Spur’s silly comment I give up for the night!
It’s all yours !!!!!!!!!!
t
spur:
Yes.
deblonay
You are ignoring the ability of a published poll to influence opinion.You are assuming that there is no bell curve and you are assuming that most people will think deeply about polls and politics rather than saturated fats or whatever .
zoidlord:
Then own your comment.
What were you referring to?
Confessions
You’re joking! Where have I or Bemused been sexist?
dany le roux@33
I am merely repeating what Rudd has said publicly on a number of occasions.
My personal opinion is that Rudd would still like to lead and if there was a vacancy, he would put his hand up.
@Confessions/39
Yes I DO OWN MY COMMENT.
you and bemused and others about rudd too much bs and not enough discussions about other stuff.
A Coalition primary of 48%? Seriously?
I’ll have to check again what everyone else says. I thought they were all around 44/45, which I guess could still work with this as the extremely high end of the interval.
[Labor’s biggest challenge is not Abbott; he wont change, it is the OM. It is going to very hard for them to win with the OM solidly against them.]
Which is what I was writing here on PB, right after the last election.
I think Labor is realising it has to fight the media on this, and rely more on social media and the net. But it really does need, as I said back then, more real money plowed into hiring the right people, producing those ads (mostly internet) and undoing the ideas that people have planted in their heads about labor.
Abbott’s gloss has come off but now its time for Labor to patch up its brand, whether or not that brand damage was really fair in the first place – it wasn’t.
Campaign.. advertise.. fight back on every front – including things like telling people that the HIP and BER were success stories (yes I said that on PB right after the last election, too)
And further, now is the time for Labor to heal its brand, because of the distrust in Abbott, more people are willing to sit up and listen.
zoidlord@42
Zoid, beyond my jibe about confessions seeing “Rudd People”, I have not raised him tonight. Simple reason – at the present time there is nothing new to be said.
cud chewer@44
I agree with you.
I think that once you have had a major operation regardless of the expertise of the anaethestist your middle aged brain is on borrowed time.
To lead a country as a military commander and as the adjudicator of policy for your country the leader best equipped to have a pristine brain is not one who has undergone extensive surgery.
dany le roux@48
Huh?
[You’re joking! Where have I or Bemused been sexist?]
More goalpost shifting. Who said you were being sexist?