GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has plugged a hole in the Newspoll and Nielsen schedules with a federal poll conducted from 1015 respondents on Wednesday and Thursday (UPDATE: Make that Thursday and Friday – The Management). The result is at the low end of Labor’s recent form, with the Coalition leading 48% to 34% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred, compared with 47% to 35% and 53-47 in the Galaxy poll of a month ago. The Greens vote is steady on 11%.
Galaxy also grapples with the AWU matter, with what to my mind are problematic results. Poll questions are most effective when gauging basic affective responses, namely positive or negative feelings towards a person or thing, and mutually exclusive choices, such as preferences out of political parties or election candidates. On this score, the best question to emerge so far has been Morgan’s effort on approval or disapproval of the Prime Minister’s handling of the controversy. Difficulties emerge where the range of potential opinions is open-ended, as too much depends on the choices offered by the pollster.
A case in point is Galaxy’s question on whether Gillard had “lied” (31%), been “open and honest” (21%) or, as a middle course, been “economical with the truth” (31%). Particularly where complex or half-understood issues are involved, choices like this are known to activate the strategy of “satisficing” (“choosing the easiest response because it requires less thinking”, according one of the pithier definitions available). This results in a bias towards intermediate responses, in this case the “economical with the truth” option.
I have similar doubts about Galaxy’s question as to whether respondents believed Gillard “should provide a full account of her involvement through a statement in parliament”, an over-elaborate proposition that feels tailored towards eliciting a positive response. Sixty per cent of respondents duly gave it one, although it is clear the thought would have occurred to few of them before being put to them by the interviewer. Only 26% offered that such a statement was unnecessary, with 14% undecided.
Then there is the finding that 26% of respondents said the issue had made them less likely to vote Labor. Like any such question, this would have attracted many positive responses from those whose pre-existing chance of voting Labor was zero. However, the question at least allows us to compare the results to those of similarly framed questions in the past. In July, a Galaxy poll found that 33% were less likely to vote Labor because of the budget. In January, 39% of respondents to a Westpoll survey said power price hikes had made them less likely to vote for the Barnett government. In July of last year, The Australian reported polling by UMR Research (commissioned, it must be noted, by Clubs Australia) had 23% of voters less likely to vote Labor due to mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. And a month after Kevin Rudd was deposed as Prime Minister in June 2010, Nielsen found the proportion saying they were less likely to vote Labor as a result was similar to today’s finding: 25%.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports News Limited has published a further result from the Galaxy poll, a four-way preferred prime minister question which has Kevin Rudd on 27%, Malcolm Turnbull on 23%, Julia Gillard on 18% and Tony Abbott on 17%.
Meguire Bob
[Is this the last newspoll week for the year]
Ah excellent point. Almost certainly
Kezza:
[Neverthless, given your wont to point out absolute meanings to all posters, there is one thing that surprises me about your word usage. It’s your insistence on calling this government a ‘regime’. ]
I am aware that is can have the connotation of illegitimacy, but that’s not what I’m implying. If, for example, the Greens became the leading partner in a government or even the sole party of the executive, I’d still use the term “regime” in relation to them. For me, it simply describes a paradigm of rulership. Go back far enough and it is the writ of a king. Go back further to proto-indo-european and the root {reg} is to moving in a straight line (hence our modern term, regulation). In Persian rahst means “right, correct”. It is cognate with royal which is again about the writ of the ruler, usually a king. In short, the provenance of the term over thousands of years is about how one person commands another.
The problem Chifley faced was not lack of employment (post war) but lack of workers.
Lack of workers means you have full employment (if we accept less than 2% as the criteria) but it also means you can’t grow.
If everybody has a job, then businesses can’t expand, because they lack the workers to do the work required.
Further, it also means that businesses have no choice who they employ – which means that they’re not employing the best person for the job, which also impacts on their ability to deliver.
It’s a separate issue to why individual workers aren’t able to find work.
The theory is that, in an economy with 5% unemployment, they should be able to.
If they’re not, the failure often is that their skills set doesn’t match the employment available (which is why I wonder why the TAFE cuts etc are being ignored in this discussion), or they’re unwilling (sometimes for very good reasons) to accept what’s on offer.
Dan Gulberry
[Economical with the truth?
Liberal with the truth.]
Hockeynomical with the truth ? The eleventy button adds a whole new dimension.
[Chifley was faced with the problem of maintaining full-employment when the job market was being flooded with all the demobilised servicemen and women. He did it because he wanted to and he knew how destructive unemployment was.]
Postwar full employment was achieved in two ways: pushing women out of the workforce so that they would free up jobs for men; sending hordes of people, including scientists and violinists, to swing a pick on the Snowy and other public employment schemes. Which of these do you think would be more popular today?
[R Waterhouse v Fairfax]
Robbie upholding his reputation?
guytaur@1240
People with disabilities are going to suffer greatly under his rule. To find out how, see what is happening in Cameron’s UK to people on disability support there. No doubt at all that Abbott is very aware of their policies and very keen to inflict them here.
[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 3m
TD-MI Inflation Gauge falls 0.1% in Nov after 0.1% rise in Oct & 0.2% rise in Sept. Inflation is very low. Looks like Q4 CPI could be zero
]
Inflation rate approaching a big fat zero.
Rather than the “unimaginable price increases” forecast by Abbott due to the “carbon tax”. This over reach and groos exaggeration by Abbott should not be let to lie dormant.
billie@1205
Apart from the workforce not being nearly so dependent on manufacturing as a source of income, have you taken into account that from 1945 to 1974 few married women were in the workforce, and many (for much of that time) were actually prevented from paid employment once they were married?
Psephos
A truth is that boats represents a fear being stoked in Western Sydney. For a concrete example of this see those pamphlets distributed by the Liberal Candidates husband in Lindsay at last election.
Labor addressing those fears and dispelling the lies and myths will stop boats being a vote changer. Not by pandering to the fear.
The Coalition will always win that battle. Labor does not want to and cannot compete in a campaign for the racist vote.
zoomster@1252
That is just bizarre.
Hundreds of thousands of workers were freed up from the demobilisation of the armed forces and the conversion from war production to enter the civilian economy.
There was a shortage of materials holding back construction and petrol rationing continued.
Chifley avoided the unemployment experienced after WWI.
Shellbell
[R Waterhouse v Fairfax
Robbie upholding his reputation?
]
I take it this Robbie Waterhouse of Fine Cotton ring in fame, warned off courses for many years. Was hoping it was son Tom, who is saturating the airwaves with his gambling promotions.
Psephos@1254
I don’t respond to caricatures.
Psephos quoted:
[3.1.4 Ending the captivity and killing of animals for the cosmetic and fashion industries, including the use of fur and skin.]
I’m not sure why he quoted this. Perhaps he thinks this policy is in some way, undesirable. It seems perfectly reasonable, at least, if one cares about animal suffering.
There is no need for humans to source fur, except, perhaps to handfuls of indigenous people living above the Arctic Circle or perhaps in the mountainous regions of South America. These animals are hunted not held in captivity and it’s done in very small numbers rather than at industrial scale. If these were the only people sourcing furs and only for their own needs, I’d be OK with that.
Sydney’s Daily Telegraph not so much ‘dog whistling’ as blowing a vuvuzela on Asylum Seekers:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/party-time-as-pm-called-a-hero-over-asylum-seeker-detention-policies/story-e6freuy9-1226528431205
Here’s the headline and first paragraph for those who want to avoid giving the Telecrap any clicks:
‘Party time’ as PM called a ‘hero’ over asylum-seeker detention policies
ASYLUM seekers in Indonesia have swung into party mode and labelled Julia Gillard a “hero” after learning they will receive welfare payments and rent assistance should they make it to Australia by boat.
The story is not allowing comments.
[If these were the only people sourcing furs and only for their own needs, I’d be OK with that.]
And banning leather? Thus forcing everyone to wear shoes made from substitutes produced from fossil fuels?
i may have n o understanding of what the tele is on about.
but if people are aloud to work what is wrong with that,
so some say they taking jobs for aust. well if the there are job s still out there we should have no unemployment are lazy ones sitting around getting money from the gov. or what.
surly its best to let new comers work so we don’t have to
look after them with out taxes surely better they pay their share of the gst
what is wrong with that.
can some one explain , is it the way it was written or what.
[people may want to yes want to be actually contributors to our society,, isn’t that better than having them sit around feeling depressed and unwanted and getting mentally depressed and sick and then we pay with our taxes
to make them well again when they could be working and getting on with a happy life
if this is so why condemn mr bowen
what have i missed have i missed understood all this or what
@tveedercom: PM @JuliaGillard “Patching and mending a broken system just doesn’t cut it anymore.” #NDIS http://t.co/232SsWJR
[Margo Kingston @MikeSeccombe
Morning Secco – feel like tackling the AEC? Just arrived in Sydney]
“@chrismurphys: Supreme Court: Matter of Ramjan v Kroger has been adjourned for Hearing on Wednesday at 9.30am at the request of the defence. #auspol”
Fran Barlow@1185,
Just to be clear, Zoomster, what integrity do you attach to the Daily Telegraph account?
Straw Man argument. This argument is not about The Daily Telegraph.
bemused
Chifley:
[It was the policy of the Government, he said, to maintain the position of full employment that existed to-day.]
[Less, than 1,000 persons wereFix this text receiving unemployment benefits to-day, and the excess in labour demands over supply was much ‘ I greater * than was essential to healthy full employment.]
In other words, Chifley’s concern was that there weren’t enough workers.
[Mr. Crifley said that records of the Commonwealth employment service showed that 113,000 jobs were waiting to be filled, hut be- cause all vacancies” were not made known, the full labour shortage might be in the vicinity of 175.000 men and women.]
[‘Labour shortages in spine industries were tending to re- tard developments in other in-
dustries ‘dependent nit them for materials. Continuity of work, and expansion ‘in building; and
construction ‘ were affected, and
housing and building programmes delayed because of labour short apes in timber mills, brick and til« yards and pipe works.]
I’m sure that Chifley didn’t mean what Chifley said, because of course he wouldn’t know as much as what he was talking about as you, bemused.
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/2781698
guytaur
What a let down. 🙁
[Party time’ as PM called a ‘hero’ over asylum-seeker detention policies
ASYLUM seekers in Indonesia have swung into party mode and labelled Julia Gillard a “hero” after learning they will receive welfare payments and rent assistance should they make it to Australia by boat.
]
I can just see the #newscorpse editorial meeting, whooping up this great gotcha.
C@tmomma:
[Straw Man argument. This argument is not about The Daily Telegraph.]
It is if Zoomster is citing it as evidence in an argument she is proposing.
victoria
Not for me. Just means a delay. I know fireworks, if any will happen next year. Thanks to informative comment by people like shellbell.
On today’s Daily Telegraph. An article that if Alan Jones tried to broadcast it would be stopped by his fact checker.
Media Regulation now!
Fran
[Imagine being in a party where your fears included being seen as not brutal enought to people fleeing brutality for them to prefer either to endure their original brutality or try their luck some place else.
I’m so glad that’s not my problem.]
And you’re no part of the solution.
Holy fence sitting.
1273
i must have missed something so
whats changed/
after your accepted don’t you become a person who
has the welfare system the same as Australians
or do you have to wait to be come an Australian
the old word naturalized comes to mind
[On today’s Daily Telegraph. An article that if Alan Jones tried to broadcast it would be stopped by his fact checker.]
Which statements in the story are factually incorrect?
Ctar
See my 1259. Your attack on smacks of defending racism by saying holier than thou. I know you are not. Just be careful how you attack those you disagree with.
Truth is the Greens position is not holier than thou. They just do not believe that Australia can be crueler than what AS are fleeing from. Thus their OnShore processing position.
Disagree all you want. Just be aware that holier than thou they are not.
In fact if you say the Greens are you are showing a sensitivity about the policy Labor is pursuing.
Psephos
That AS people would cheer being on welfare rather than work.
Psephos
[Which statements in the story are factually incorrect?
]
How about “ASYLUM seekers in Indonesia have swung into party mode” – need some fact checking.
Agree with a lot of your views, but demonising of asylum seekers by Murdoch tabloids and 2GB shockjocks is all about stirring social division. We have a multicultural society already.
[That AS people would cheer being on welfare rather than work.]
That’s your opinion, but you weren’t there. So you can’t identify any actual factual inaccuracies in the story?
so phes
what do you want,,,, beggers in the street, people held up some where surley when they get the all clear
that they are accepted refugees why cannot they work and have medicare ect.
what did we use to do,
so what happening with naurt and the island off new guniea
must have been asleep all week
would some one explain whats changed
if they are not refugees are not they sent home
fran
logically, people who are in such dire straits that they would risk death by drowning to come to Australia would be delighted to know that, should they reach Australia and avoid death by drowning, they are going to be given money by the government.
I don’t think someone fleeing the hellholes you continually portray Indonesia and Malaysia as are going to find living on less than the dole as particularly onerous (if they’re not going to be seeking employment, their expenses are less than the average unemployed person’s anyway).
zoomster@1271
A great tribute to the effectiveness of Chifley Govt policies in conditions that otherwise might have resulted in mass unemployment.
I know of Chifley’s concerns from reading his biography by Fin Crisp and his speeches recorded in ‘Things Worth Fighting For’.
CTar1 quoted me:
[I’m so glad that’s not my problem.
then continued
]
You assume, without expressly stating it, still less arguing it, that a viable and ethical solution was on the table for us to consider. There wasn’t, as the current situation shows. That’s called a petitio principii fallacy.
We are not fence sitters. We have proposed a manner of dealing. Our solution doesn’t suit the ALP, because it fears that the perception that they are humane will damage its attempts to appeal to the xenophobic and constructively inhumane. As with “the surplus”, the ALP has appointed the Coalition as its examiner in this area and no policy that the Coalition can’t back is going to pass muster.
The ALP has jumped into an ethical cesspit and is wondering why we aren’t keen on joining them for a dip.
I won’t give the Daily Terror a click.
Who says this is the case?
Do they reference the source of their information or is this another right wing opinionated journo peddling fear as fact?
[ASYLUM seekers in Indonesia have swung into party mode and labelled Julia Gillard a “hero” after learning they will receive welfare payments and rent assistance should they make it to Australia by boat.]
so who are these people in party mode
people that have waited years or boat people
so the boat people policy has not changed
its not a free for all.
so what are they on about.
even most of us labor voters dont want free for all
we want what the commitee set up agreed to
Well apparently it’s not Tony Abbott that wants to take us back to the 1950s – it’s our very own Bemused.
guytaur
[See my 1259.]
Your usual ‘arguments’ are not worth scrolling back for.
[A truth is that boats represents a fear being stoked in Western Sydney. For a concrete example of this see those pamphlets distributed by the Liberal Candidates husband in Lindsay at last election.]
2007 election actually
Bemused there is a lot of truth in what Don, Phesphos and Zoomster are saying
1. with demobilisation women were pushed out of their jobs
2. often encouraged to marry – who can remember as kids having friends with much older parents who fought all the time
3. married women could not hold permanent jobs in the public service until 1966??
4. women paid 2/3 of male wage until 1974
5. migrants were bonded to Commonwealth to work where sent for 2 years in places like Snowy Mountain Scheme Ford factory or Holden factory
However Zoomster, Phesphos the post-war period was a period of unparalleled prosperity and upward social mobility fuelled by full-employment policies adopted by all western governments.
but applicable to Australia
see Tony Judt
The government engaged in full employment progams and nation building schemes like
1. invite General Motors to set up production in Australia with debentures raised by the public and backed by government
2. build Snowy Mountain Scheme to provide irrigated land for agriculture , 39% of Australian food production
dee
seems like a story about story to me.
mr bowen once again and the PM when she is free this after noon need to tell people exactly\
if there where maj0r changes in the policy would we not hear about it every where
on the abc for example
dee
seems like a story about story to me.
mr bowen once again and the PM when she is free this after noon need to tell people exactly\
if there where maj0r changes in the policy would we not hear about it every where
on the abc for example
Sprocket
It is Fine Cotton Robbie and here is the guts of what he does not like:
[.. the matter complained of presents to the reader a sensational revelation of fresh information which links Mr Waterhouse, a prominent person in the racing industry, to the notorious murder of the horse trainer, George Brown, with whom he had been associated. It opens with the words “The Waterhouse war story is out at last”, and includes allegations as to the extent of the involvement of Mr Watherouse and his father … Bill Waterhouse in the Fine Cotton ring-in scandal which resulted in them being banned from racecourses for 14 years.]
http://www.caselaw.nsw.gov.au/action/pjudg?jgmtid=161691
For those who follow the tabloids
[ASYLUM seekers in Indonesia have swung into party mode ]
is related to the series of Schoolie drunk and debauchery stories from Bali, whooping it up on the booze, drugs and sex.
And now the asylum seekers in Bogor have “swung into party mode ” as well. WTF you might say dear bogan western suburbs aspirational McMansion dweller?
WTF indeed. And on top of it, these revellers are praising the PM as a “hero”
No fact checking required. QED.
Ctar
What usual arguments?
fran
[That’s called a petitio principii fallacy.
We are not fence sitters.]
Someone who doesn’t vote has a group that can introduce ‘itself’ as ‘we’?
Other than making noise ‘you’ are irrelevant to political debate.