UPDATE (12/11/12): Essential Research has Labor gaining ground for the second week in a row to attain their best position since March last year. They now trail 52-48, down from 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are monthly personal approval ratings, which last time had both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech. Whereas Gillard has maintained her gains, her approval steady at 41% approval and disapproval down two to 49%, Tony Abbott has fallen to his worst net result ever, his approval down four to 33% and disapproval up four to a new low of 58%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011. Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.
The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby covers coastal suburbs from Brighton south to Marino, extending inland to edge of the coastal plain at Myrtle Bank and the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. The seat’s Liberal lean is softened by the area around the defunct Tonsley Park Mitsubishi plant, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity. The redistribution has shaved the Liberal margin from 0.8% to 0.3% by adding about 10,000 in Aberfolye Park from Mayo in the south, and removing 4000 voters at Myrtlebank to Sturt and 1500 at Edwardstown to Hindmarsh.
Boothby was created when South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, at which time it was landlocked and extended north into the eastern suburbs. Its coastal areas were acquired when the neighbouring electorate of Hawker was abolished in 1993. Labor held the seat for the first eight years of its existence, and remained competitive until the Menzies government was elected in 1949. This began a long-term trend to the Liberals which peaked in the 1970s, when margins were consistently in double digits. Former Premier and Liberal Movement figurehead Steele Hall held the seat from 1981 until he was succeeded by Andrew Southcott in 1996.
A positive swing in the difficult 2004 election had Labor hopeful of going one better in 2007, inspiring Right powerbrokers to recruit what they imagined to be a star candidate in Nicole Cornes, a minor Adelaide celebrity and wife of local football legend Graham Cornes. However, Cornes only managed a 2.4% swing against a statewide result of 6.8% after a series of disastrous campaign performances. Labor again had high hopes at the 2010 election, seeing in the seat a potential gain to balance anticipated losses in Queensland and New South Wales. However, while the Labor swing of 2.2% outperformed a statewide result of 0.8%, perhaps reflecting a suppressed vote in 2007, it fell 0.8% short of what was required.
Andrew Southcott came to the seat at the age of 26 after winning preselection at the expense of fellow moderate Robert Hill, the faction’s leading light in the Senate. Tony Wright of the Sydney Morning Herald wrote that the Right had built up strength in local branches with a view to unseating its hated rival Steele Hall, and when denied by his retirement turned its guns on Hill as a “surrogate”. Unlike Hill, who went on to become government leader in the Senate, Southcott has led an unremarkable parliamentary career, finally winning promotion after the 2007 election defeat to the Shadow Minister for Employment Participation, Apprenticeships and Training. However, he was demoted to parliamentary secretary when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009, after backing Malcolm Turnbull in the leadership vote.
Southcott’s preselection for the coming election was challenged by former state party president Chris Moriarty, following disquiet in the party over his fundraising record. However, Moriarty was only able to manage 35 votes in the February 2012 party ballot against 195 for Southcott, support for his challenge reportedly evaporating as the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge came to a head. Southcott will again face his Labor opponent from 2010, Annabel Digance, a former nurse and SA Water Board member factionally aligned with the Right.
[BTW if it’s into abuse in all institutions, why did Gillard only speak to Pell before and not the Anglicans etc]
Probably to tell him to get a new pair of running shoes.
sprocket
I gather Robertson suspended Obeid from the NSW Labor Party today. They must be getting short on numbers.
Obeid, Thomson, Williamson…
@ajm/1850
The issue with that is that there are new and existing victims that have not moved on.
So that is where people like My say come unstuck and allowed the Church to get away (and not just Church).
[OH MY GOD.
TERRIBLE NEWS PEOPLE. JUST TERRIBLE.
KATE ELLIS IS ENGAGED TO DAVID PENBERTHY.]
Heart officially broken! 😉
Seriously, my congratulations to her.
TLBD @ 1803,
Has anybody thought to take Ms Grattan’s temperature? It is possible that she may have come down with some appalling malady like er umm respectitis.
BB
I’m guessing Gillard had a little smirk when she spoke to Pell. I’m sure she enjoyed telling him.
Maybe we should end up with a standing royal commission to protect children, with powers to investigate anything they deem necessary.
If we do it right now, we save wrecked lives later.
[fiona
Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 7:07 pm | PERMALINK
TLBD @ 1803,
Has anybody thought to take Ms Grattan’s temperature? It is possible that she may have come down with some appalling malady like er umm respectitis.]
Too much to hope for
[St Johns fellows resign – http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/st-johns-fellows-resign-20121112-2986t.html … – and the old boys Abbott & Hockey cackled & thought it was just “boys will be boys”]
Finns
Mongrels will be mongrels?
guytaur @ 1834
Just the light touch we need atm. I loved it (although I’ve never been stoned, I’ve certainly lain with a man!!)
Does there have to be a vote to set up the RC?
I know Oakie, Windsor, Wilkie, Greens and Libs all support it but I’m more wondering about the terms of reference.
Its the confidence to ring Pell and the Lib Premiers pre-announcement that I like. Did Abbott get wind of this and pre-position himself? an alternate theory.
http://media.smh.com.au/news/national-news/its-time-goughs-song-turns-40-3776786.html
Time for remembering
WHO IS THIS DAVUD PENBERTHY AND DID HE ASK PB PERMISSION TO GIVE KATE ELLIS HIS HAND IN MARRIAGE?
Change of subject.
There are some nuggets in this.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-11-12/report-shows-australia-productivity-not-so-bad/4367440
Paddy O
[Did Abbott get wind of this and pre-position himself? an alternate theory.]
Did Abbott speak out before or after the PM spoke to Pell. That is the question we need an answer for.
PM tackles big issues – Women, Kiddie Abuse, MRRT, Carbon, Regional AS Sol, Gonski, NDIS, Dental, NBN, UNSC, Asian Century – Abbott?
Boerwar
[There is a bit of (loose) goss doing the rounds that Benedict is somewhat senile.]
I dont know about that, but his physical decline is obvious. A few weeks back there was a big synod in Rome (Pell had an organising role) and BXVI spoke for a few minutes reflecting on Vatican II. Compare the first minute or so, completely lucid, with the last minute or so, basically almost incoherent.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNVzM7SWsog&list=UUxshhzR907v2w6DjICyAgLQ&index=154&feature=plcp
I think, he thinks, he is going to die soon. He is having a very unusual consistory in November to appoint just 6 new cardinals, to keep the electoral college up to 120. The most comparable such consistory was the one Paul VI conducted just before he died – the consistory at which Ratzinger himself became a cardinal.
Paddy O
SBS news quoted Pell as saying that it was OK by him as long as it was not just the Catholic Church. Exactly the angle Abbott took.
Draw your own conclusions.
(Footnote) I’m beginning to wonder if Abbott can think for himself at all.
Typical ALP to bury that Kate Ellis story in a big news day!
zoidi dont really want to blogg\\but i have to contnully
defend myself, do you really think i have any influence
over what people decide in the church
thats really so naive i am no body just another
straw in the wind a ship in the night\
people like my say, i am a no body in the church
and its laughable you would think that.
i have my reasons and its political
becauce it will become political
i am sick of having to defend myself as if i am such a bad person for having a differnt opinion.
i never mentioned names in this debate would you kindly stop mentioning mine
gees i may vote liberal
As someone said, don’t diss before both sides have had a bat.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia-v-south-africa-2012/engine/current/match/573007.html
From this part of the PMs statement, I gather she just recommends it to the GG.
[The proposed terms of reference and proposed Commissioner will be submitted to the Governor‑General in due course, pursuant to the Royal Commissions Act 1902.]
I used to like Michelle Grattan. However a few months before I started posting here her “but this is why x is a Labor failure and will lead to an inevitable Abbott PM” routine got very old. Not to mention the “this government isn’t telling a STORY” bollocks she used to yammer on about.
Still. I prefer her to Bolt.
I would hope some of the shady, fringe-dwelling organisations such as Exclusive Brethren come under as much scrutiny as the Catholic and Anglican churches. Having seen the oppressive way they treat anyone who gets in their way, I’d say the type of abuse (eg effectively expelling family members who don’t fall into line) they mete out is as bad as any.
Roy Orbison@1843
Not quite right Roy.
I usually do agree with your posts and I agreed with that one.
You re different to me, we are all individuals.
As for goading my say, in reality she more often has a crack at me and I am not one of those who will put up with her BS so I respond.
Did Abbott speak out before or after the PM spoke to Pell. That is the question we need an answer for.
From memory, the Premiers of NSW and Victoria happen to be Liberals as well…
Guytaur @ 1834,
What Lizzie said.
Plus, I just told OH, and he is still rofling 🙂
PTMD,
[Speak for yourself]
I do. Time you did the same. Anyway, who elected you prefect and gave you permission to hand out awards?
[Roy Orbison
Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 7:16 pm | PERMALINK
I would hope some of the shady, fringe-dwelling organisations such as Exclusive Brethren come under as much scrutiny as the Catholic and Anglican churches. Having seen the oppressive way they treat anyone who gets in their way, I’d say the type of abuse (eg effectively expelling family members who don’t fall into line) they mete out is as bad as any]
I agree with you Roy, the guy who heads it, a pal of Johnny Howard before the 2010 election, there was some reports about him and some of his young female congregation wasn’t there?
Given that the RC has now been announced and given that this is after all a political blog, dare I ask the obvious question – does anyone have any thoughts on how this will play out politically?
Wide ranging terms of reference, I hope. I am a Catholic. I have seen sexual abuse in the church by brothers and priests. I welcome this development. Justice for the abused and oppressed. A thorough review of practices of reporting. It can only be good for all parties concerned and will, I believe, lead to a lot of healing.
[As someone said, don’t diss before both sides have had a bat.]
Twas moi. 🙂
no the people here are the naive ones of course abbott and cardinal pell would say
that and why shouldnt they, what wrong with that
i could turn this around and ask other denominations
why but i am not going to as its none of my business
and i have to many friends who are in other denominations
but i told you all that the time the pm if she just says the catholic church, abbott wins
none of you get it do you
BTW Guess Newspoll will come out tonight???
Paddy O
[Its the confidence to ring Pell and the Lib Premiers pre-announcement that I like. Did Abbott get wind of this and pre-position himself? an alternate theory.]
He has some form on this – the change in the primogeniture rules for the royal succession
I suspect a Royal Commission of this magnitude will take a year to report, so it is quite possible it won’t report anything before the next election.
http://youtu.be/DJPoLMn1H1I
JG announcing the Royal Commission. Watch here, and avoid the old and new media spin.
It speaks volumes about the Catholic Church that the best defence they have is “well… other churches protect rapists too!”
As a (relatively) unmolested Catholic school-kid I feel I dodged a bullet. If I ever have kids I’m not letting them near a cleric until they’re old enough to kick them in the balls… then buy a beer.
[Given that the RC has now been announced and given that this is after all a political blog, dare I ask the obvious question – does anyone have any thoughts on how this will play out politically?]
Party politics – I don’t care particularly. Real politics? Power to the vulnerable and abused, I hope.
Mari,
I think you might be thinking about Hillsong.
Shows, depending on the terms of reference of course, but I would think it would go on for two years. How long did the Stolen Generation enquiry take? I think that would be a good yardstick.
Who Killed Yasser Arafat????????
Tonight on ABC 24 News Channel at 9.30
A UK docoon his murder
Though you don’t need Hercule Poirot to quess the murder/murders
A Clue…look in Tel Aviv…plenty of suspects there
probably Sharon the Butcher of Beruit..or any of the present leaders for that matter.’
______________
__
Don’t we actually already know what the Royal Commission will report?
It will report that all allegations of sexual abuse should be investigated by the police, rather the organisations themselves.
I also hope that a new law is made that adults must report allegations of sexual abuse to the police. There should be the same law applied to all adults that currently applies to people like school teachers.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mhastings/the-sins-of-general-david-petraeus
[The Sins Of General David Petraeus
Petraeus seduced America. We should never have trusted him.
Michael Hastings
BuzzFeed Staff
Posted Nov 11, 2012 5:43pm EST
The fraud that General David Petraeus perpetrated on America started many years before the general seduced Paula Broadwell, a lower-ranking officer 20 years his junior, after meeting her on a campus visit to Harvard.
More so than any other leading military figure, Petraeus’ entire philosophy has been based on hiding the truth, on deception, on building a false image. “Perception” is key, he wrote in his 1987 Princeton dissertation: “What policymakers believe to have taken place in any particular case is what matters — more than what actually occurred.”]
worth reading
my say@1871
The final betrayal!
rua,
I think you quoted a cricketer …
powers to investigate anything they deem necessary.
If we do it right now, we save wrecked lives later.
1858
well fancy that , that in a different way was what i said but becauce i happen to be catholic and proud to be a christian i was wrong.
if you go back i mentioned many people that need to be helped
but as is said christians are used to be persecuted
[Shows, depending on the terms of reference of course, but I would think it would go on for two years. How long did the Stolen Generation enquiry take? I think that would be a good yardstick.]
Maybe they will do an interim report or something? Not that it will tell us much we don’t already know.
The Aboriginal Deaths in Custody Royal Commission ran for 4 years.
The PM made it clear that this RC is specifically to deal with sexual abuse.
It’d be nice to catch some of the other institutionalized crap that goes on, but the inquiry has to have some focus or it will fail to achieve specific meaningful outcomes.