This week’s Essential Research survey has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 36%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week: the Coalition on 47%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. With very good timing, it also offers us Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which unlike the voting intention figures are derived entirely from the most recent period of surveying from Wednesday to Sunday. These figures are also of particular interest in the current environment in that they involve a four (strong approval, approval, disapproval, strong disapproval) rather than two point scale. This finds Julia Gillard gaining two points on strong approval since last month to 9%, her best result since February 2011, while also gaining four points on the milder approval measure to 32%. Her combined approval rating of 41% is her highest since May 2011. Her combined disapproval rating is down three points to 51%, also her best since last May, with strong disapproval steady at 27% and the milder disapproval rating down three to 24%. Opinion of Tony Abbott would appear to have polarised even further: he is up three on strong approval to 9% – his best result since December 2010 – but also up two on strong disapproval to a new high of 31%. His overall approval is up five to 37%, and disapproval down one to 54%. Gillard has opened up a seven-point lead as preferred prime minister of 43-36, its highest since February.
The survey also gauges attitudes to the presidential election, finding Barack Obama favoured by 63% to just 9% for Mitt Romney, with Obama leading 53-18 even among Coalition voters. Respondents were found to have an overwhelmingly more favourable view of their own country than the United States with respect to access to health care and jobs, standard of living for ordinary people, and other such. The US obviously rated higher on “international influence”, but even here 17% felt able to conclude Australia’s was “better”. Respondents were also asked about climate change, with much the same result as when the question was last asked a year ago: 48% believe climate change is occurring as a result of human activity, with 39% plumping for “we are witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”.
[Yet another very tough day in the office for FXJ shares, down 4% today to a new record low of $0.36]
Can’t possibly imagine what’s driving that decline 🙂
rishane @ 4195
Swan is such a potent man – he single handedly caused the GFC and a lasting structural shift away from ever-expanding-credit-growth to a sustainable savings rate and prudently cautious banking system.
Wow, what a man. If only he could use his powers for good and not evil…
[but Swan has turned them into real deficits.]
davidwh – thank dog for that or we wld have been in recession doo doo a la US, EU and UK mode. Oh for the days of the tax revenue that flooded into the Howard/Costello coffers.
Orf to throw some dinner in the oven. Been interesting seeing the Oppn reaction to UN seat.
dwh, r, ml
What did you think of Mr Hockey’s paranoid performance on the timing of the release of the MYEFO?
Do you think he was on the turps, as suggested elsewhere in Bludgerville?
Hmmm… let’s assume that only one print newspaper is left standing?
Which would it be, in Australia, and why?
Boerwar
I saw some of Hockey’s comments today. Very strange. He has been like this a few times now. I seriously dont know what to make of it
[ davidwh
Posted Friday, October 19, 2012 at 4:53 pm | Permalink
frednk the economy and the federal budget are different animals. Related and integrated certainly but not the same thing. You can critique the federal budget without talking down the economy.
]
You can’t separate the surplus/deficit without looking at the economy. When private enterprise goes into a funk the public sector ether has to take up the slack or we have a serious unemployment rise. The Liberals have indicated they would prefer the latter.
My biggest worry is that Labor will ignore the economy to wedge the Liberals. That is the deficit should run a little longer and Labor won’t allow it. It will be a close call as the international economic indicators are picking up.
[What did you think of Mr Hockey’s paranoid performance on the timing of the release of the MYEFO?]
Boerwar,
As is said before, its ticks another box that Gillard will call the election before having to announce the much mentioned surplus is not. It night night if Labor fail to produce a surplus and then go to an election.
Tony Abbott’s mean-spirited and curmudgeonly reaction to Australia’s successful bid for a UN Security Council seat is not remotely surprising, coming as it does from an individual who hates and denigrates anything that could be construed as a positive for the ALP Government, regardless of whether this was in the nation’s wider interest, or not.
This kind of narrow and parochial interpretation of the role of the Opposition, couched only ever in terms of Abbott’s own political self interest, rather than the country’s best interest – witness the relentless talking down of any economic achievement by the Federal Government, the incessant carping and whingeing about the PM personally, the single-minded (one could say feeble-minded) focus on the “Stop the_insert cliche here_” mantras, the daily attempts to trash Parliamentary processes and precedents in a cynical campaign to portray the Government as in chaos – renders this impotent man unfit for high office.
The luddite Tony Abbott and his Coalition cheer squad in the Murdoch Circus would boo a cure for cancer, if it was announced by PM Gillard.
[Which would it be, in Australia, and why?]
Because of its accurate, honest and un bias reporting. True story 🙂
BW
[Hmmm… let’s assume that only one print newspaper is left standing?
Which would it be, in Australia, and why?]
The f’cking Canberra Chronicle because no matter what you do you can’t stop them throwing it on your driveway.
Boerwar
The Herald Sun. For the pictures and posters of AFL players!
Tom Hawkins@4150
Middleton on fire with the issues of the day.
[The luddite Tony Abbott and his Coalition cheer squad in the Murdoch Circus would boo a cure for cancer, if it was announced by PM Gillard.]
Not true. The praise would go to Rudd as 99% of success for Labor have been started by him. He really laid the ground work for Labor.
[Boerwar
Posted Friday, October 19, 2012 at 5:06 pm | PERMALINK
Thinking that I would add some policy gravitas to the discussion about Ms Bishop, I just Googled ‘curdled breast milk.’
I do wish I had not.]
Why? what’s the problem? Haven’t you seen curdled milk before? Dairy farmer?
Or is your problem human breast milk?
Or is your real problem ‘women’ and the impossibility of having a ‘policy gravitas’ discussion with them?
Or shouldn’t you get between two women having a disagreement over terms?
PO
“@senthorun: Dear @ABCNews24, just because you are raised in a single parent household does not make you a “vulnerable child.” #auspol”
[Middleton on fire with the issues of the day]
Good news is no news
I don’t think we should be too precious about the PMs’ fall in India.
It is the stuff that “Funniest Home Videos” has been running on for 20 years – essentially prat falls.
The visual media loves this stuff – shoes, falls, trips, inability to spell, cigars in the mouth, ear picking, nose picking, tomato/tomatoe/potato/potatoe spelling or whatever, as this shows the plebs how ordinary are the so-called leaders.
Two women colleagues both shamefacedly admitted they could not help laughing when they saw the video – as much for the totally surprised look on the PMs’ face as anything else.
Meanwhile, where it counts, and they are both well mannered individuals, that told me they virtually cheered the PM as she demolished Abbott in that “speech”.
The noted that this total loser has had it coming for some time. He led with his mouth and his chin and got flatten on both.
The bit the women loved was the ‘watch look’ where she finally tore the last shreds of his ego from him.
New Liberal government tomorrow.
One suspects, given the internet is the internet, that a “curdled breast milk” search would reveal a vast subculture of a particular sexual fetishism involving breasts, milk-like substances and … going out on a limb here … latex.
I’m not game to go googling. Maybe you can and report back.
@FrancisAwartefe: Yet again Chelsea and John Terry treat victims of racist abuts with utter contempt. No apology to Ferdinand. http://t.co/p8gnxxqm
rummel@4209
You think the release of the MYEFO at about the time it usually gets released is significant, then?
Hockey’s actually been back-tracking on his predictions here. He was certain they were going to be released next week at one stage. It’s drifted out since then to some time in the next few weeks.
It’s one of the Coalition’s favourite games: claim that if something happens it’s going to be irrefutable evidence that the Government is something or other. Then when that thing doesn’t happen continue to say that if it did it would have been irrefutable etc….
davidwh
We can see in Qld what cutting Govt spending does, 24,000 jobs lost under the ALP. GSP negative for the first qtr in living memory.
I didn’t vote for this bunch of bananas for brains. Did you?
[New Liberal government tomorrow.]
Zambia? Mozambique? Lower Volta?
Boerwar I missed Joe’s discussion on MYEFO. However I have said a number of times that Joe is an economic lightweight and I doubt he would have said anything to change my mind.
Big ooooooops LNP, :red:
Boerwar@4168
The PM’s fall in India lasted longer in the media cycle than abbott’s failure to raise *turning back the boats* with SBY.
Abbott just went to ground for a while and it wasn’t raised further. As usual.
rummel
[New Liberal government tomorrow.]
You’re dreaming …
As long as it annoys That’s Just Tone, I couldn’t care if we were made permanent members of the Ku Klux Klan.
Although, yes, I can see how that might be construed as slightly racist, for which I apologise.
rummel
Newman going to be dumped?
And, in an atmosphere where every day, week and month that Labor is in office is a case of living at the edge, another very good week for the government.
All those false tests and hurdles established by the hostile media for Labor to throw themselves against, all those false dead-lines, all those “be gorn by Christmas” predictions have proved to be as empty and hollow as the Liberal Party policy file.
Hard to believe we are what? 5 years going into 6 with Labor being in power.
This time next year 6 going into 7 and, with an ounce of good fortune and hard work, 7 going into 10.
No wonder the conservatives are feeling so much bitterness.
And all because “She will not just lay down and die”.
Mr Abbott should just pick up the phone to the UN and tell them to give the choccie bears back.
Jackol
[. . . a “curdled breast milk” search would reveal a vast subculture of a particular sexual fetishism involving breasts, milk-like substances and … going out on a limb here … latex.]
You what?
Oh, I see the connection . . . rubber trees, rubber trees exude latex (lactating breasts exude human milk), milking rubber trees for latex (feeding a human baby), latex = rubber = fetish of some sort. FGS.
Actually what I was getting at before you bestowed the usual male sex angle onto breasts (rather than them being nourishment for a child you may help to procreate) is that sexist comments about women’s bodies and their capabilities do not just apply to Labor women, but to ALL women.
That was the CONTEXT of my comment.
Mr Abbott should just pick up the phone to Mr Hockey and tell him to stop making confused pronouncements about the MYEFO.
Mr Abbott should just pick up the phone to Mr SBY and tell him to stop the boats.
Oh, wait…
@JuliaGillard: The PM thanking DFAT personnel this morning after Australia secured a UNSC seat for 2013/2014. TeamJG http://t.co/HO5CE7m2
BW – clearly it will be the OO because it is utterly irrelevant if they make a profit like most businesses need to.
For the OO its all about murdoch having power.
When he dies things will change as shareholders and NCP management will reassert themselves, but that may mean sale of the OO to another murdoch, maybe even james, who will be out of a job when daddy moves on.
Now here is a tweet Iwish would happen.
“@TheAviator1992: @mrumens imagine if Aussie media cut off interviews when Abbott lied. We’d never have to hear him again!”
Kezza – you were ripping into Boerwar for making a comment that googling “curdled breast milk” brought up some things he wished he had not seen.
He wasn’t commenting on breast milk, he was commenting on the internet.
I’m gay, antisocial, single, totally unsuited to parenthood in all aspects. There is no procreation in my past or future, thank you kindly.
[Abbott just went to ground for a while and it wasn’t raised further. As usual.]
The OM applying their ‘context’ for the good of the people again
Rachel Maddow rips into the Right Wing Alternative Media Universe:
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/maddow-rips-into-right-wing-version-of-reality-and-conservative-conspiracy-theories/
Same here.
dave, CTar1
I am torn between the ‘Canberra Chronicle’ and ‘The Australian’.
Very torn.
dave
At a reported $25m loss per annum, surely Rupert Murdoch’s successor will simply close it down
I hope they don’t. Who would publish Doonesbury?
@JointDestroyer: Destroy the Joint Facebook Page has just passed 20,000 likes. Together achieving gender equality & civil discourse: http://t.co/JlYtKMds
Guido Tresoldi@GuidoTresoldi
Gillard calls analysis of journalist ‘infantile’ Maybe JG could be a bit more diplomatic with the Press Gallery?
is this person serious???
Went to Morgans to see if they had any recent polling. Nothing other than their 7th October which was 48-52.
But they did have other interesting non-political stuff. Consumer confidence is on the rise. Highest since Feb 2012.
That’s more bad news for Abbott if all their talking down of the economy has failed.
http://www.roymorgan.com.au/
Abbott talks a lot about picking up phones, because he’s too gutless when it’s face to face.
Jackol
[I’m gay, antisocial, single, totally unsuited to parenthood in all aspects. There is no procreation in my past or future, thank you kindly.]
Wouldn’t stop me from deriding discrimination against you because of your biology, though.
I expect the same in return.
btw, I googled “curdled breast milk” and it wasn’t that bad – so why are you defending him? Because he’s male? Sexist.