Seat of the week: Lilley

Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers the Brisbane bayside north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – along with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park eastwards through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), but the margin was little affected.

Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base of Nudgee, Aspley, Kedron, Eagle Farm and Brisbane Airport all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but otherwise it was usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won and then consolidated the seat with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%.

Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as the Labor member in 1993, but like all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues he lost his seat in 1996. Swan stood again in 1998 and accounted for the 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although in keeping with the inner urban trend his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%). The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%.

Swan’s path into politics began as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to the Treasury portfolio after the 2004 election defeat, which he retained in government despite suggestions Rudd had been promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.

Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, Swan has long been a bitter rival of Kevin Rudd, the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter with the Right’s “old guard”. He was in the camp opposing Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s successful challenge against Beazley, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and most recently when he sought to recover the leadership in February 2012, when Swan accused Rudd of “sabotaging policy announcements and undermining our substantial economic successes”. Swan succeeded Gillard as deputy upon her ascension to the prime ministership.

Swan’s LNP opponent for the second consecutive election will be Rod McGarvie, a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper. McGarvie won a July preselection vote from a field which included John Cotter, GasFields commissioner and former head of agriculture lobby group AgForce, and Bill Gollan, owner of a Deagon car dealership.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,173 comments on “Seat of the week: Lilley”

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  2. briefly, fiona, c@tmomma, victoria et al when I posted my little pome about Julia and Women In Labor here late last night I had wanted it to be about her achievements and the regard in which she is held by people who work with her, which I’d seen first hand at the Community Cabinet. I hadn’t properly thought through that her own tribute to her Dad as the inspiration for the work she does meant that John Gillard has left a substantial legacy to us all. I’ve tried to make that a bit clearer with a new title for the pome and fuller notes in my illustrated post at Cafe Whispers, A Labor of Love – A Dad’s Legacy.

    It’s not just the lack of respect shown to the Prime Minister that those female journos show along with their male counterparts. That’s a sin of ommission. Far worse are their sins of commission. From the day she became PM and then soon after was endorsed by the Independents there has been a concerted campaign of belittlement and demonisation by News Ltd soon joined by Fairfax and then the ABC news room. Her astonishing resilience and calm in the face of all that must surely give the lie to the one big lie about her alleged lack of integrity about the CARBON TAX! Even Laura Tingle has not broken ranks on that.

  3. oh fiona, I think you are right about the poor Countess. She will be betrayed again, though her dignity, loyalty and courage are unimpeachable. The female roles have great depth – and in spite of the unreality of the tales, their characters and their ethical qualities are made all the more plausible by the music used to define them.

  4. Maddie Charles ‏@maddiet5

    “I want to see an #Australia that has enough courage to say “We are independent” Malcolm Fraser #auspol

  5. @TheFacelessSpin It seems Abbott was a world class right wing homophobic sexist thug at Uni so the wall punching story fits #auspol

  6. [@TheFacelessSpin It seems Abbott was a world class right wing homophobic sexist thug at Uni so the wall punching story fits #auspol]

    The sad thing is that this is what Australia these days likes!!

  8. Briefly, you are apparently referring to a pinata, which is a Spanish celebatory tradition, not Italian.

    Victoria, tuoi genitori son Italiani, non ti pare que sei Italiana anche tu?

  11. [1758
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Sunday, September 9, 2012 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    Briefly, you are apparently referring to a pinata, which is a Spanish celebatory tradition, not Italian.]

    I do believe you are right, FS!!! I hope I have not offended any Italians. My only excuse is I was introduced to the joys of this exercise by a Greek.. 🙂

  12. WeWantPaul

    Congratulations. Eagles – too strong – too tall – too good. Still proud of North’s young team and hope they learn from it.

  18. it looks as though the Australian has decided to go all out against the Greens. some of their reports go beyond self parody – reporting on Byron Bay, they make it sound as though the Greens have been wiped out, but when you read on we find – the mayor has almost certainly been re-elected and the numbers on council are unchanged. I think the 8% newspoll figure is a rouge (as is the result for Labor, where Gillards approval went up, but somehow the TPP vote went down on the basis of the low green vote), but the Oz seems determined to keep the number down. Has there ever been such media bias before? – the Australian is simply an arm of the liberal party and has avowed to destroy the Greens.

  24. Good win for Australia, in the Wheelie Rugby, a gold medal.

    Wow, the wheelie Marathons. I can only think of one thing harder than running a Marathon, and that is pushing it. (in a wheelchair.)

  25. Biggest upset – the USA did not get to the final of the men’s wheelie basketball and Canada beat us for the Gold!

  36. And from the Land of the Free –

    Doesn’t this say a lot about them!
    http://www.americablog.com/2012/09/american-airlines-throws-kid-with-downs.html
    This is what we need here.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/09/09/president-obama-bill-clinton-should-be-secretary-of-explaining-stuff/
    Ah, spontaneity can be bought apparently.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/09/09/photoh-romney-requirement-speaks-volumes-can-you-imagine-having-to-put-these-signs-up-at-an-obama-gathering/
    When will the Repugs learn to not try to mix it with Paul Krugman?
    http://crooksandliars.com/blue-texan/week-paul-krugman-schools-rand-paul-gov
    Hey Mitt! Just like our Tone you’re going to have to give us details sometime soon!
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/romney-claims-his-tax-plan-wont-lower-taxe
    And Paul Ryan continues to dig deeper holes for himself.
    http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/ryan-claims-cutting-800b-medicaid-wil
    Not to mention Mitt himself.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/another-day-another-lie-mitt-romney-campai
    Hmmm. Powerful women.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/09/1128862/-Powerful-women-took-center-stage

  37. And again I’m heading off to the flatlands for some coin. +It may be several days again this week. QT is set to record for all days just in case.
    Let’s hope the wall punching gets a run today. Albo would be my pick to deliver it.
    Have a great day Bludgers!

  38. [That Rudd rubbish is an outright lie. I’ll bet Rudd has NOT crossed the PMs mind at all right now.]

    Tomorrow’s the Big Day, isn’t it?

    When Mark Riley intimated that Rudd’s supposed to take over, half the Cabinet to resign, McLelland back in his rightful place replacing the incompetent Nicola Roxon, all in the lead up to the reversal of the Carbon Tax and the calling of an early election to catch Abbott on the back foot?

  39. SK – On ‘openers’.

    I have a car that has the opening ‘thing’ built in.

    After I had a couple of go’s at getting it to work without success my nephew and I tried to ‘train’ it without any luck.

    Some weeks later I pulled up in his driveway and touched the mirror in my car and both his garage doors opened.

    🙂

  41. At least The Australian has the decency to hide its Richo predictions of the End Of Gillard by late May. I can’t find them.

  42. Bushfire Bill,

    I figure right now is the one time Rudd WON’T challenge – because he will be seen as a heartless bastard by everyone if he does!

  43. BB,

    Should create a spreadsheet with all the predictions by all the journo’s about JG’s demise then publish it to show what their ‘inside’ knowledge is worth!

  44. SK – It’s a family joke now so I just use the supplied one now.

    He lives nearby on a main arterial road so if I go past without calling, and I can see someone is at home, I open and close the doors.

    😆

  45. I designed a circuit board once using “auto routing” (software automatically lays the tracks, designs the ground plane etc.).

    Imagine my surprise when, as I discovered it didn’t work, I passed my hand over a particular chip and the LED light on it started flashing rythmically.

    I had invented telekinesis. Should have kept that board. I’d be rich by now.

  48. [Should create a spreadsheet with all the predictions by all the journo’s about JG’s demise then publish it to show what their ‘inside’ knowledge is worth!]

    I thought of that. Started looking. But many had mysteriously disappeared, like Richo’s.

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