James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead back up from 53-47 to 55-45, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (down two), 46% for the Coalition (up one), 8% for the Greens (down three, which as Poliquant notes in comments is their worst result since March 2009) and 13% for others (up four). Julia Gillard has the nonetheless opened the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, moving from 38-38 to 39-38. Personal ratings are more in line with the media narrative of the last few weeks, with Julia Gillard recording a 7% improvement on net approval and Tony Abbott recording an 8% decline. Gillard is up four on approval to 31% and down three on disapproval to 57%, while Abbott is down three to 31% and up five to 59%.
UPDATE: The Morgan face-to-face poll covering last weekend’s polling (for some reason the August 26-27 weekend seems to have been dispensed with) has Labor further improving on the previous result, which was its best since March. Labor is steady on the primary vote at 34.5%, but the Coalition is down 2.5% to 41.5% and the Greens are up 1.5% to 11.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, the two-party preferred gap has narrowed slightly from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5. However, the move on the previous election measure of two-party preferred is more substantial: from 53-47 to 51.5-48.5.
The weekly Essential Research report has fallen into line with other pollsters in giving Labor its best result since March – up two on the primary vote to 34% and one on two-party preferred to 55-45. The Coalition’s primary vote is down a point to 48% after no fewer than 12 consecutive weeks at 49%, its lowest since April. The poll finds 52% believing female politicians receive more criticism than men against only 4% for less and 40% for the same, and very similar results (51%, 6% and 38%) when the subject is narrowed to Julia Gillard specifically. A question on which groups would be better off under Labor or Liberal governments find traditional perceptions of the parties are as strong as ever, with wide gaps according to whether the group could be perceived as disadvantaged (pensioners, unemployed, disabled) or advantaged (high incomes, large corporations, families of private school children). Respondents continue to think it likely that a Coalition government would bring back laws similar to WorkChoices (51% likely against 25% unlikely).
Other news:
• The Victorian Liberals have preselected candidates for three Labor-held federal seats. Ben Collier, managing director of Sunbury-based information technology consultancy Collier Pereira Services, won preselection last weekend to contest McEwen, where redistribution has boosted Labor member Rob Mitchell’s margin from 5.3% to 9.2% by adding the area around Sunbury. In Bendigo, transport business owner Greg Bickley has been chosen to run against Lisa Chesters, who will defend Labor’s 9.4% margin after the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons. In Bruce, Emanuele Cicchiello, school teacher, Knox councillor and candidate for Holt in 2007, will run against Labor member Alan Griffin, whose margin is 7.7%.
• AAP reports the Liberal National Party in Queensland has attracted seven candidates for preselection in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, five in Kirsten Livermore’s seat of Capricornia and four in Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy, although the names of the candidates have not been published. However, it is known that former Australian Medical Association president Bill Glasson is among the starters in Griffith. Meanwhile, Clive Palmer has finally put an end to his over-reported pretend bid for preselection, on the pretext that he “can’t support Coalition policy on refugees and political lobbyists”.
• The ABC reports former Australian rugby union coach John Connolly is “expected to announce soon” that he will contest the LNP preselection to succeed retiring Alex Somlyay in Fairfax, having failed in his bid for the Labor-held Brisbane seat of Petrie. “Local solicitor Swain Roberts and businessman Terry O’Brien” are also expected to nominate. Former LNP director James McGrath, who appeared to have the numbers sewn up before deciding to take on Mal Brough in Fisher, now seems to have his eyes elsewhere.
• Alex Arnold of the Illawarra Mercury reports Neil Reilly, who also ran in 2007 and 2010, has emerged as the only nominee for Labor preselection in the south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, which will be vacated by the retirement of Liberal incumbent Joanna Gash. Reilly was initially rebuffed before the 2010 election when the party’s national executive installed former South Sydney rugby league player David Boyle, who later withdrew after widespread local criticism over the imposition of a non-local (though he is now a Shoalhaven councillor).
• Counting has been finalised for the Northern Territory election of the Saturday before last. Two remote seats thought to be in doubt fell the CLP’s way, Arafura by 1.0% and Stuart by a surprisingly easy 3.5% (larger than the 3.1% in the never-in-doubt Darwin seat of Sanderson). That makes for five CLP gains from Labor (Arafura, Stuart, Arnhem, Daly and, if we use the 2008 election result as the baseline, Namatjira) and a total of 16 seats for the CLP, eight for Labor and one independent. The CLP scored 55.8% of the two-party vote, which is a 5.1% swing compared with the raw 2008 result – remembering that two Labor-held seats were uncontested last time, both of which were won by the CLP this time.
| Seats | Votes | % | Swing | 2PP | Swing | |
| Country Liberal | 16 (+5) | 46,653 | 50.5% | +5.1% | 55.8% | +5.1% |
| Labor | 8 (-5) | 33,862 | 36.6% | -6.5% | 44.2% | -5.1% |
| Independent (11) | 1 (-) | 6,092 | 6.6% | -0.5% | ||
| Greens (10) | 3,039 | 3.3% | -1.0% | |||
| First Nations (8) | 2,048 | 2.2% | ||||
| Sex Party (5) | 717 | 0.8% | ||||
| . | ||||||
| Formal | 92,411 | 96.8% | +0.9% | |||
| Informal | 3,072 | 3.2% | -0.9% | |||
| Enrolment/Turnout | 123,815 | 77.1% | +2.1% | |||
• Also finalised is the count for the New South Wales state by-election for Heffron, also held last Saturday, where Labor’s Ron Hoenig will succeed Kristina Keneally after scoring an easy victory. Even allowing for the absence of a Liberal candidate, the 17.7% hike in the Labor primary vote looks fairly encouraging for them, although taking into account the plunge in turnout the result on raw votes was more modest (an increase of 1631). It was a less happy result for the Greens, whose share of the vote was up only slightly in the absence of strong competition, and down 559 votes in absolute terms.
| Votes | % | Swing | 2PP | % | |
| Ron Hoenig (Labor) | 20,501 | 58.9% | +17.7% | 21,863 | 70.0% |
| Mehreen Faruqi (Greens) | 8,122 | 23.3% | +4.4% | 9,366 | 30.0% |
| Drew Simmons (Democrats) | 3,749 | 10.8% | |||
| Robyn Peebles (Christian Democrats) | 2,442 | 7.0% | +5.1% | ||
| Liberal | -33.3% | ||||
| Independents | -4.6% | ||||
| . | |||||
| Formal | 34,814 | 94.8% | -1.9% | ||
| Informal | 1,910 | 5.2% | +1.9% | ||
| Enrolment/Turnout | 55,712 | 65.9% | -22.8% | ||
Abbott was just his usual arrogant, smart arse, abusive self with Lisa Wilkinson.
Happy she never let him get away with it.
Abbott will remain LOTO as long as they are in such a strong winning position despite the musings of Malcolm Turnbull.
Why would any party dump a ‘successful’ LOTO when they are still travelling well?
Fiona, Ta for reply
fiona
Indeed. I am just scrolling back through the earlier pages of comments now.
BTW, I thought your description last night – on retiring for the evening – to your “eyrie”, sounds very cool 🙂
Forza ai falchi!
[Boerwar
Posted Friday, September 7, 2012 at 7:24 pm | Permalink
mari
I do like Singapore. Did you bumboat?]
Was going to go over to Malaysia from Changi wharf but the people there were worried if I needed a visa , and I didn’t fancy staying perm in Malaysia didn’t go that day, by the time the hotel found out I could go it was too late, as I was flying on. But will do it, as loved doing the ride to the island last year
Anyone else think the Obama daughters are drop-dead gorgeous?
[fiona
Posted Friday, September 7, 2012 at 7:30 pm | Permalink
Mari, I am with you in spirit! As are Saints Joseph (fighting generally), Michael and Paul (sword fighting), George (archers, soldiers, and horsemen – not to mention boils) …
More power to your (and Markjs’s) arms ]
Thank you Fiona, think we may have won as he has retreated with slurs on our good selves, always a good sign they are losing
Zoomster
I like what your mum did, just keep him suspended for the future
[A solicitor and professional debt collector has been killed inside the Blue Mountains property that doubled as his firm’s office and his family home.
Anil Herat, 55, was found dead inside his Springwood home by police after neighbours reported hearing “blood-curdling screams” and a dog barking at 5.15pm yesterday.
It is believed he was stabbed to death in a back bedroom of the Boomerang Road property.
Police said witnesses saw a man leaving the address shortly after they heard the screams.
Advertisement
“Whether he was involved, we’re still trying to establish that,” Blue Mountains crime manager, Detective Inspector Mick Bostock, said.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/bloodcurdling-screams-debt-collector-killed-in-home-office-20120907-25jar.html#ixzz25mAH0lj6 ]
Jeez. No wonder they call them “plod”.
Just saw Quentin Dempster on whatever the 730 Report is on Fridays. Let Gladys and Duncan Gay walk all over him. Not a single relevant question.
Evening all.
Go Malcolm! Go Lisa Wilkinson!
Although a bit rich of MT to complain about QT being dominated by boats. Anyone else recall Rudd standing at the dispatch box day after day stating X number of days/months since a question on health/jobs/education/etc as the then shadow minister for immigration asked yet more pointless questions about AS?
Malcolm didn’t seem to have a problem with it in those days.
mari:
Welcome back! I hope you enjoyed your trip.
Every wind has a silver lining.
Laocoon,
[I thought your description last night – on retiring for the evening – to your “eyrie”, sounds very cool]
I live in a two-storey place in one of the higher (in terms of altitude) parts of Kew, and we certainly cop the winds, and sometimes the lightning.
As for being cool, during the winter of 2010 one of my panes of my bay window shattered without my realising it (the blind on that part of the window is almost permanently down, and my dressing table is in front of it), and it was only when I realised that I had been incredibly cold for several nights that I investigated and discovered a slight lack of glass.
But yes, it’s a nice little eyrie, and I pretend to glare out of it with my fierce yellow eye, deciding which rabbot is next for the chop…
Voted today at the council elections. Here’s what some two dozen anonymous names were offering: vague stuff like “your local candidate”, “rural living”, “putting your issues first”, etc. This was really poor, but I have to be fair, they did have some really important stuff on their how to vote flyers like showing how many numbers you should put in the little boxes. Admittedly there was some confusion amongst the candidates as to how many numbers you should put, with some suggesting 2, some 3, others 4 numbers, but at least it showed how important the candidates thought it was to get the numbers on the ballot paper CORRECT. No informals in our shire, PLEASE. A couple of flyers went to extreme care to get it JUST RIGHT by having instructions in big letters to put 3 numbers in the boxes and they even had a graphic which showed how to do this, which was really neat except the graphic showed FIVE NUMBERS being marked.
I think there must be something seriously lacking in the numeracy department among aspiring politicians in my shire.
The local council’s website listed all the candidates in all the three wards, which was a GOOD IDEA except they forgot to say which ward was the ward relating to the part of the electorate you lived in. So you had NO IDEA which ward you were supposed to vote in unless you had special insider status.
Council websites!
I have to commend all the candidates for being really upright citizens, though, even if I feel maybe they were REALLY DUMB in one respect. No candidate woke up to one really simple way to differentiate themselves from the anonymous pack, which would be to say which “side” of politics they were on. By “side” I mean something that your normal poll pludger type would be able to identify with. But I wasn’t to be deterred by this so I checked out all the candidate’s official declaration forms on the council website, and guess what? They all signed their forms. Isn’t that brilliant? Such information. Except for two guys. One mentioned on his form that he was a member of the liberal party and another one revealed he was a member of the ALP.
Two out of about two dozen guys and gals with names like Smith and Palooka had the sense to do some big-politics levering. Would you believe it?
So guess who got my vote? I don’t think he was too bright though, otherwise he would have had “I support the carbon tax and all of Julia’s other policies” all over his cheaply printed flyers and ALP on his T shirt.
Think of it, he could have got 33% of the primary vote.
Good Evening Bludgers! 🙂
And I heard an interview with her husband, Peter Fitzsimons, today, bless his red-bandannaed pate, where he informed the radio jock that his next book would be coming out in October, and it’s subject is The Eureka Stockade! One for the Christmas stocking, to be sure.
Actually, that makes me think about one of the most reprehensible acts that John Howard committed whilst he was Prime Minister, and for which I will never forgive him. That being his expression of utter disdain and barely-disguised contempt for the 150th Anniversary of The Eureka Stockade.
‘No biggie’ was the impression he tried very hard to give the nation. If my memory serves me he even refused to go to the ceremony commemorating the restitution and preservation effort of the original Eureka flag.
He always was a small-minded little suburban solicitor though at heart.
Didn’t mind putting on the Ritz to celebrate and commemorate his own 10th year in Office though, with all the gormless capitalists of the porcine variety. And he had it televised so that the plebs could marvel at all the toffs in their latest expensive finery doing the parade into the Inner Sanctum from which they were excluded.
Imagine bringing all that back if Abbott worms his way in to the top job? Gina doing the royal wave to the proles on $2/day.
Easy stomach! 😀
[confessions
Posted Friday, September 7, 2012 at 7:51 pm | Permalink
mari:
Welcome back! I hope you enjoyed your trip.]
I did but glad to be back in Oz. Have thawed out in the last couple of days after spending a partial summer in Edinburgh. Just wish other Aussies realize how lucky we are and stop whinging about the Government. In the UK people recognize my Aussie accent, know about our female PM and are very impressed
Hawks leading 9 -4. Stop the game!
fiona
You Victorians are made of sterner stuff; my experiences of winter in Melbourne would have had me investigating the source of the cold in about 5 minutes 😉
Sadly, not my place, but having a bedroom at the top of this tower would be something else (a place in Annandale)
We owner built an octagonal house once, which (for various personal reasons) we never really got to live in.
To solve the problem of cathedral ceilings sloping up to a central point, we put a small octagonal room on top of the house.
I always thought it would make a great bedroom.
mari:
Yes, the whingeing annoys me too, esp when you hear nightly reports from how bad other countries have it.
We are very lucky in Australia.
They were hit-outs. 10-7 real score now.
Go the Dog, 6-0.
VFL used to be a game of marking and kicking. Now, it just mauls and rucks, like Rugby.
confessions
Posted Friday, September 7, 2012 at 8:10 pm | Permalink
[mari:
Yes, the whingeing annoys me too, esp when you hear nightly reports from how bad other countries have it.
We are very lucky in Australia]
Beautifully put, just wish a few could go to Greece Spain etc, might change their tune, have just been talking to a lady on Twitter about how desperate her cousins are to get out of Greece, I was asked a few times in both Greece and UK about the mining jobs, I explained where they were etc and the 457 visas
c@tmomma
[That being his expression of utter disdain and barely-disguised contempt for the 150th Anniversary of The Eureka Stockade.]
Yes it is surprising considering the amount of anti Asian racism that was such a large part the Eureka Stockade story. 🙁
Laocoon,
[You Victorians are made of sterner stuff; my experiences of winter in Melbourne would have had me investigating the source of the cold in about 5 minutes.]
Yeah, but I was born in Canberra, and spent my first 24 years there, so I understand (dry) cold.
Sydney and Melbourne have much in common when both are experiencing real, wet winter – and Sydneysiders in my experience haven’t caught up with the quaint notion of heating 😉
Otherwise, I agree – that tower in Annandale would make one heck of an eyrie, and knowing a little about Sydney’s avian population the tower’s inhabitant(s) would soon be on first-name terms with all sorts of raptors – only of the winged variety, of course.
Zoomster, a bedroom in the octagonal lantern would have been charming – with a rope ladder for ascending, and a fireman’s pole for the descent …
Hawks by 15 at the 1/4. Should have been more.
Harking back to Wilkinson this morning, it is not that she asked questions which should be asked of any political leader, its just that we all know Abbott has had an armchair ride vis-a-vis the PM.
Just a moment ago Ch9 showed a news snip of windswept PM on her way to Vladivostock with the commentary – “Nurses slam PM’s Age Care Plan.”.
Now, if I were a thinking viewer I might ask: “I wonder where the PM is going? I wonder if it is important? I wonder if it is anything to do with good government? What Age Care Plan?”
Ch9 returns to type.
However, if just some of the mouthpieces for the MSM actually aim a little above self-navel gaze, we might see some informed debate.
I am not going to hold my breath as undoubtedly M/s Wilkinson will probably be returned to reporting on School Fetes for having the temerity to make Abbott look like a beached fish gasping for air.
However, it was refreshing.
This little black duck
[VFL used to be a game of marking and kicking. Now, it just mauls and rucks, like Rugby.]
Good god mein duck. AFL players would last 1.6 seconds in a real ruck let alone a maul !!
poroti,
Those studs did seem to come out of nowhere!
Now, when clearing out in the rucks is carte blanche, …
Fiona , NO not you Dr. NO slurring his words. Sorry I fired it off too quick before making dinner.
This little black duck.
[Now, when clearing out in the rucks is carte blanche, …]
Ah those were the days and the further south you went in NZ the more
viciousuncompromising it got. Which may or may not be related to the amount of Scots increasing as you moved south 🙂Lacoon
I think that was Henry Parkes’ house during one of the rare periods he had funds. Either that or he had one of similar design in Johnson St. Annandale.
ACT elections close 26 September 2012. Vote 20 October.
Internal info is that Labor is imitating headless chooks.
Lord Barry,
Phew! Relieved much 🙂
poroti,
When, in the ruck, someone cleans out an opponent who has done little more than bind, where’s the justice!
ABC 2 4 Malcolm Fraser now speaking
_____________
Always thoughful and interesting…Fraser is speaking on a range of topics now …notably for his demand for an enquiry into the Iraq Commitment…(Perhaps send Howard to The Hague Court…along with other war criminals Blair and Biush et al)
Fraser is always worth listening too…and an old friend of Gough’s too
Fortunately, Zed Seselja (Lib) IS a headless chook.
AFL players spend more time gesticulating and protesting than playing.
AFL is too slow for me. I know what they will do or should be doing two minutes before they do it, or not as the case may be.
[poroti
Posted Friday, September 7, 2012 at 8:35 pm | Permalink
This little black duck.
Now, when clearing out in the rucks is carte blanche, …
Ah those were the days and the further south you went in NZ the more vicious uncompromising it got. Which may or may not be related to the amount of Scots increasing as you moved south ]
And the kilts got shorter??
This little black duck
[poroti,
When, in the ruck, someone cleans out an opponent who has done little more than bind, where’s the justice!]
I say bring back old school rucking. It made for a more free flowing game. Why ? Because the option of flopping on/over the ball came with real consequences. Ones that make you think twice 🙂
[deblonay
Posted Friday, September 7, 2012 at 8:39 pm | Permalink
ABC 2 4 Malcolm Fraser now speaking
_____________
Always thoughful and interesting…Fraser is speaking on a range of topics now …notably for his demand for an enquiry into the Iraq Commitment…(Perhaps send Howard to The Hague Court…along with other war criminals Blair and Biush et al)
Fraser is always worth listening too…and an old friend of Gough’s too
]
Did you see his article in The Age today
Photos up of mowhawk
I note that the runt and his two tiny testes ( the borg and timmy) are busy reducing the PS numbers while stating that others have to pick the losers in their disgraceful campaign.
Their true manhood or humanity shines forth. (vomit)
Geez I hope this ends very soon and Qlders wake up and toss the runt out at the next election.
He has shut down two projects that I was involved in just to be bloody minded. Unfortunately one of them was a perpetual sustainable Indigenous project.
The runt is a fecken idiot
Abbott slurring …. My theory …. Perhaps one too many facial Botox jabs recently….
Just for the record re the Lisa Wilkinson /Tony Abbott interview this morning.
He complained he could not get a word in, but he spoke for the majority of the interview. The segment went for 7 minutes and 44 seconds but the interview itself went for 417 seconds.
Questions LW 166 seconds 40%
Answers TA 251 seconds 60%
Total 417 seconds
The interviewer asked three long questions (45, 24 and 29 seconds) as she was quoting Turnbull and Joyce so it may seem she talked a lot. TA was given time to answer.
I have done this stopwatch test a couple of times for Alan Jones interviews and the result is usually reversed. Jones asks questions for 60% of the time. I look forward to TA chipping the Parrot the next time they chirp together.
Also well done to Wilkinson re the smiling laid back style. Very hard for Bolt to invent a “Sales hates Abbott’ story this time.
tlbd
if you have the gesticules you may as well use them
Just caught Wilkinson’s interview with Abbott. It wasn’t that she asked particularly hard questions, it was the huffing and puffing he did when he wasn’t given a clear platform to just rabbit on like he normally does, coupled with the rude comments at the end, that made it interesting viewing. It highlights that he crumples under even the most minor of scrutiny. If he is unable to just parrot his lines he loses the plot. He does a lot of weird heavy sighing when asked a question he doesn’t want to answer, as well as doing a sort of throat clearing. Not sure if it’s a nervous tic or something, but it just comes across as grumpy and weird. And women don’t like it. No matter what shade of baby blue tie you wear, Tony.
I see some QLD ministers have apologized for claiming the debt there was a $100B. I also see hockey is tweeting the same figure. MSM should be asking Hockey when will he apologise.