Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead back up from 53-47 to 55-45, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (down two), 46% for the Coalition (up one), 8% for the Greens (down three, which as Poliquant notes in comments is their worst result since March 2009) and 13% for others (up four). Julia Gillard has the nonetheless opened the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, moving from 38-38 to 39-38. Personal ratings are more in line with the media narrative of the last few weeks, with Julia Gillard recording a 7% improvement on net approval and Tony Abbott recording an 8% decline. Gillard is up four on approval to 31% and down three on disapproval to 57%, while Abbott is down three to 31% and up five to 59%.

UPDATE: The Morgan face-to-face poll covering last weekend’s polling (for some reason the August 26-27 weekend seems to have been dispensed with) has Labor further improving on the previous result, which was its best since March. Labor is steady on the primary vote at 34.5%, but the Coalition is down 2.5% to 41.5% and the Greens are up 1.5% to 11.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, the two-party preferred gap has narrowed slightly from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5. However, the move on the previous election measure of two-party preferred is more substantial: from 53-47 to 51.5-48.5.

The weekly Essential Research report has fallen into line with other pollsters in giving Labor its best result since March – up two on the primary vote to 34% and one on two-party preferred to 55-45. The Coalition’s primary vote is down a point to 48% after no fewer than 12 consecutive weeks at 49%, its lowest since April. The poll finds 52% believing female politicians receive more criticism than men against only 4% for less and 40% for the same, and very similar results (51%, 6% and 38%) when the subject is narrowed to Julia Gillard specifically. A question on which groups would be better off under Labor or Liberal governments find traditional perceptions of the parties are as strong as ever, with wide gaps according to whether the group could be perceived as disadvantaged (pensioners, unemployed, disabled) or advantaged (high incomes, large corporations, families of private school children). Respondents continue to think it likely that a Coalition government would bring back laws similar to WorkChoices (51% likely against 25% unlikely).

Other news:

• The Victorian Liberals have preselected candidates for three Labor-held federal seats. Ben Collier, managing director of Sunbury-based information technology consultancy Collier Pereira Services, won preselection last weekend to contest McEwen, where redistribution has boosted Labor member Rob Mitchell’s margin from 5.3% to 9.2% by adding the area around Sunbury. In Bendigo, transport business owner Greg Bickley has been chosen to run against Lisa Chesters, who will defend Labor’s 9.4% margin after the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons. In Bruce, Emanuele Cicchiello, school teacher, Knox councillor and candidate for Holt in 2007, will run against Labor member Alan Griffin, whose margin is 7.7%.

• AAP reports the Liberal National Party in Queensland has attracted seven candidates for preselection in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, five in Kirsten Livermore’s seat of Capricornia and four in Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy, although the names of the candidates have not been published. However, it is known that former Australian Medical Association president Bill Glasson is among the starters in Griffith. Meanwhile, Clive Palmer has finally put an end to his over-reported pretend bid for preselection, on the pretext that he “can’t support Coalition policy on refugees and political lobbyists”.

• The ABC reports former Australian rugby union coach John Connolly is “expected to announce soon” that he will contest the LNP preselection to succeed retiring Alex Somlyay in Fairfax, having failed in his bid for the Labor-held Brisbane seat of Petrie. “Local solicitor Swain Roberts and businessman Terry O’Brien” are also expected to nominate. Former LNP director James McGrath, who appeared to have the numbers sewn up before deciding to take on Mal Brough in Fisher, now seems to have his eyes elsewhere.

• Alex Arnold of the Illawarra Mercury reports Neil Reilly, who also ran in 2007 and 2010, has emerged as the only nominee for Labor preselection in the south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, which will be vacated by the retirement of Liberal incumbent Joanna Gash. Reilly was initially rebuffed before the 2010 election when the party’s national executive installed former South Sydney rugby league player David Boyle, who later withdrew after widespread local criticism over the imposition of a non-local (though he is now a Shoalhaven councillor).

• Counting has been finalised for the Northern Territory election of the Saturday before last. Two remote seats thought to be in doubt fell the CLP’s way, Arafura by 1.0% and Stuart by a surprisingly easy 3.5% (larger than the 3.1% in the never-in-doubt Darwin seat of Sanderson). That makes for five CLP gains from Labor (Arafura, Stuart, Arnhem, Daly and, if we use the 2008 election result as the baseline, Namatjira) and a total of 16 seats for the CLP, eight for Labor and one independent. The CLP scored 55.8% of the two-party vote, which is a 5.1% swing compared with the raw 2008 result – remembering that two Labor-held seats were uncontested last time, both of which were won by the CLP this time.

Seats Votes % Swing 2PP Swing
Country Liberal 16 (+5) 46,653 50.5% +5.1% 55.8% +5.1%
Labor 8 (-5) 33,862 36.6% -6.5% 44.2% -5.1%
Independent (11) 1 (-) 6,092 6.6% -0.5%
Greens (10) 3,039 3.3% -1.0%
First Nations (8) 2,048 2.2%
Sex Party (5) 717 0.8%
.
Formal 92,411 96.8% +0.9%
Informal 3,072 3.2% -0.9%
Enrolment/Turnout 123,815 77.1% +2.1%

• Also finalised is the count for the New South Wales state by-election for Heffron, also held last Saturday, where Labor’s Ron Hoenig will succeed Kristina Keneally after scoring an easy victory. Even allowing for the absence of a Liberal candidate, the 17.7% hike in the Labor primary vote looks fairly encouraging for them, although taking into account the plunge in turnout the result on raw votes was more modest (an increase of 1631). It was a less happy result for the Greens, whose share of the vote was up only slightly in the absence of strong competition, and down 559 votes in absolute terms.

Votes % Swing 2PP %
Ron Hoenig (Labor) 20,501 58.9% +17.7% 21,863 70.0%
Mehreen Faruqi (Greens) 8,122 23.3% +4.4% 9,366 30.0%
Drew Simmons (Democrats) 3,749 10.8%
Robyn Peebles (Christian Democrats) 2,442 7.0% +5.1%
Liberal -33.3%
Independents -4.6%
.
Formal 34,814 94.8% -1.9%
Informal 1,910 5.2% +1.9%
Enrolment/Turnout 55,712 65.9% -22.8%

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,182 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 60 of 64
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  1. Re 19th century racists views in the Labor Movement ?? Poroti at al
    ______________
    It unwise to view all the statements of the time in line with our 21st century views
    The 19th century Labor movement feared that the rich here would import cheap asian slave labor ….just as Gine Reinhardt would do today in her economic zone up north…to oppose such moves now……is that racist too ??

    Henry Lawson in a Poem warned about the Rich..

    “those who make black slaves off niggers…
    want to make white slaves of you ??”

    Gina to a tee

    In QLand Towns captured “kanakas” from the isl;ands and brough them to harvest sugar cane
    The Labor movement opposed this as did the Labor PM Fisher
    “No Kanakas.”..he argued..” get white men to harvest cane at decent wages ”

    was that racist.?
    ..well he was right too

  4. If you think there are dives in soccer you might like to check an AFL game or two. A fifty would be appropriate, and I don’t care if the umps get it wrong.

  6. During the 2009 fires, my son was given the digital camera and told to wander around the house, recording everything he could in case we needed to put in an insurance claim.

    We’ve never really looked at the folder, assuming it was filled with photos of bookshelves and bric a brac.

    Today I was scrolling through it and discovered he had taken some really quite stunning photos of the scenery outside.

    I’ve used one of them – a view of the river, with the smoke making the scene look misty and mysterious, and doing interesting things to the colours – as the backdrop to my twitter page, so please have a look!

    I’m going to try and upload a couple more on to facebook – he took one of the sun, a blazing yellow disc in a sky filled with red smoke clouds which is also stunning.

  8. Fiz:

    What irritated me about the Wilkinson interview is that Lisa was apologetic at the end.

    What for? Abbott was his usual bellicose, bullying self. She had nothing to apologise for.

  10. mari

    [And the kilts got shorter??]
    They do not get shorter BUT since way back marching bands have been a very popluar sport for NZ girls/women and their kilts have been since at least the 1950’s very short.

    One of the best the Lochiel ladies.
    [Lochiel Marching Team am Basel Tattoo 2007 ]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSSKgoCPmVY
    [Lochiel Marching Team Edinburgh Military Tattoo 1983 ]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfOIAabCSo4

    http://www.marching.co.nz/history.html

  12. deblonay

    [Re 19th century racists views in the Labor Movement ?? Poroti at al
    ______________
    It unwise to view all the statements of the time in line with our 21st century views]
    I used to agree with that sort of view until I read a number oftracts written by people at the time denouncing the racism for the same reasons we do today. They did know better.

  15. [Fiz:

    What irritated me about the Wilkinson interview is that Lisa was apologetic at the end.

    What for? Abbott was his usual bellicose, bullying self. She had nothing to apologise for.]
    I agree with that fess. It’s funny that the past two interviews he has had on the Today show have both shown him to be pretty hopeless and they were both done by Wilkinson. I wonder if the next one will be done by Karl.

  20. [It’s funny that the past two interviews he has had on the Today show have both shown him to be pretty hopeless and they were both done by Wilkinson.]

    In my experience most sexist bullies are incapable of being assertive without being patronising in the face of strong women.

  27. [poroti

    Posted Friday, September 7, 2012 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    mari

    And the kilts got shorter??

    They do not get shorter BUT since way back marching bands have been a very popluar sport for NZ girls/women and their kilts have been since at least the 1950′s very short.

    One of the best the Lochiel ladies]

    Teasing you and I reckon the rest of the PBs are right, they are Marching Girls,and the skirts were short. my sister was theCaptain??? (is that right?) of the team, me I had 2 left feet as well as being lefthanded. I think their skirts were measured to make sure not too short

  31. mari

    [as well as being lefthanded]
    MARI !!! Surely you know that there are only two sorts of people in the world ? Left handers and those that want to be 😉

  32. [poroti

    Posted Friday, September 7, 2012 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    One of my daughters was in Marching Girls in Adelaide.

    So there is civilisation in Adelaide To show you how “bad” the Scots influence is here are a couple of high school “gangs” meeting on the streets of Dunedin last year.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rsjMpJcrCQ%5D
    Dunedin More Scottish than Scotland, a bit of a problem though getting them in focus

  34. poroti

    Posted Friday, September 7, 2012 at 9:18 pm | Permalink

    [mari

    as well as being lefthanded

    MARI !!! Surely you know that there are only two sorts of people in the world ? Left handers and those that want to be ]

    Definetely, guess I am speaking to a fellow lefthander? It did help with sport though

  35. well done lisa wilkinson- again! doubt abbott will agree to another round with her. it shows how vulnerable he is when questioned properly and not allowed to spout his rehearsed lines. His anger was palpable.

    First time i can recall someone in the MSM questioning Abbott’s future in the job. How long did that take?

  38. Claiming that Labor’s support for White Australia was largely for industrial reasons is taking the Windshuttle view of Australian history.
    Watson summed up Labor’s views during the Immigration Restriction bill debate. Wtte that while Labor was concerned by the industrial effects of non white immigration, the main reason for its support was to prevent the “plague” of an Asian population because of the certainty of moral, spiritual and physical contamination and the abomination of miscegenation.

  40. Andrew:

    Wilkinson did good, but I blanched at the apologetic gushing at the end when Abbott whinged about not getting a word in.

    She should’ve responded tartly that perhaps in future he’ll answer questions instead of just reciting meaningless slogans!

  43. h­ttp://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/climate-sceptics-fail-in-court-challenge-over-temperature-data/story-e6frg8y6-1226467427293

    🙂

    This will set them howling over @ NutterTrickers. They had such hopes for this case.

    I liked the bit:

    “The plaintiff does not succeed on any of its challenges… the application for judicial review is dismissed and judgment entered for the defendant,” he wrote.

    Judge Venning ordered the trust to pay NIWA’s costs.

  45. confessions

    Posted Friday, September 7, 2012 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    [Andrew:

    Wilkinson did good, but I blanched at the apologetic gushing at the end when Abbott whinged about not getting a word in.

    She should’ve responded tartly that perhaps in future he’ll answer questions instead of just reciting meaningless slogans!]
    There was a small comment at the end I think, about TA talking and she mentioned Karl.
    My time clock is still a bit out, have had a busy night on Twitter and here so think will go off to Noddy Land

  49. mari

    [Dunedin More Scottish than Scotland, a bit of a problem though getting them in focus]
    True but I it is to me amazing that the culture is so strong that teenagers are doing this stuff so long after their ancestors left Scotland.Not that I should be surprised. Check out this from a small town settled by my ggg G’father in 1853 after the family left Scotland in 1815 via Nova Scotia.

    [Firebrand Scottish preacher Norman McLeod, with over 800 of his followers, founded the town of Waipū in 1854. The group had previously settled in Nova Scotia, but hardship led them to look further afield]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbuT3Ag5DC0
    [Waipu Highland Games – New Zealand 2012 ]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8Bd0H8FZQY

  50. 2997

    [Space Kidette

    Posted Friday, September 7, 2012 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    Mari,

    Sweet dreams]
    Dream about the great “unhinging” of TA that will be sweet

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