James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead back up from 53-47 to 55-45, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (down two), 46% for the Coalition (up one), 8% for the Greens (down three, which as Poliquant notes in comments is their worst result since March 2009) and 13% for others (up four). Julia Gillard has the nonetheless opened the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, moving from 38-38 to 39-38. Personal ratings are more in line with the media narrative of the last few weeks, with Julia Gillard recording a 7% improvement on net approval and Tony Abbott recording an 8% decline. Gillard is up four on approval to 31% and down three on disapproval to 57%, while Abbott is down three to 31% and up five to 59%.
UPDATE: The Morgan face-to-face poll covering last weekend’s polling (for some reason the August 26-27 weekend seems to have been dispensed with) has Labor further improving on the previous result, which was its best since March. Labor is steady on the primary vote at 34.5%, but the Coalition is down 2.5% to 41.5% and the Greens are up 1.5% to 11.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, the two-party preferred gap has narrowed slightly from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5. However, the move on the previous election measure of two-party preferred is more substantial: from 53-47 to 51.5-48.5.
The weekly Essential Research report has fallen into line with other pollsters in giving Labor its best result since March – up two on the primary vote to 34% and one on two-party preferred to 55-45. The Coalition’s primary vote is down a point to 48% after no fewer than 12 consecutive weeks at 49%, its lowest since April. The poll finds 52% believing female politicians receive more criticism than men against only 4% for less and 40% for the same, and very similar results (51%, 6% and 38%) when the subject is narrowed to Julia Gillard specifically. A question on which groups would be better off under Labor or Liberal governments find traditional perceptions of the parties are as strong as ever, with wide gaps according to whether the group could be perceived as disadvantaged (pensioners, unemployed, disabled) or advantaged (high incomes, large corporations, families of private school children). Respondents continue to think it likely that a Coalition government would bring back laws similar to WorkChoices (51% likely against 25% unlikely).
Other news:
• The Victorian Liberals have preselected candidates for three Labor-held federal seats. Ben Collier, managing director of Sunbury-based information technology consultancy Collier Pereira Services, won preselection last weekend to contest McEwen, where redistribution has boosted Labor member Rob Mitchell’s margin from 5.3% to 9.2% by adding the area around Sunbury. In Bendigo, transport business owner Greg Bickley has been chosen to run against Lisa Chesters, who will defend Labor’s 9.4% margin after the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons. In Bruce, Emanuele Cicchiello, school teacher, Knox councillor and candidate for Holt in 2007, will run against Labor member Alan Griffin, whose margin is 7.7%.
• AAP reports the Liberal National Party in Queensland has attracted seven candidates for preselection in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, five in Kirsten Livermore’s seat of Capricornia and four in Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy, although the names of the candidates have not been published. However, it is known that former Australian Medical Association president Bill Glasson is among the starters in Griffith. Meanwhile, Clive Palmer has finally put an end to his over-reported pretend bid for preselection, on the pretext that he “can’t support Coalition policy on refugees and political lobbyists”.
• The ABC reports former Australian rugby union coach John Connolly is “expected to announce soon” that he will contest the LNP preselection to succeed retiring Alex Somlyay in Fairfax, having failed in his bid for the Labor-held Brisbane seat of Petrie. “Local solicitor Swain Roberts and businessman Terry O’Brien” are also expected to nominate. Former LNP director James McGrath, who appeared to have the numbers sewn up before deciding to take on Mal Brough in Fisher, now seems to have his eyes elsewhere.
• Alex Arnold of the Illawarra Mercury reports Neil Reilly, who also ran in 2007 and 2010, has emerged as the only nominee for Labor preselection in the south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, which will be vacated by the retirement of Liberal incumbent Joanna Gash. Reilly was initially rebuffed before the 2010 election when the party’s national executive installed former South Sydney rugby league player David Boyle, who later withdrew after widespread local criticism over the imposition of a non-local (though he is now a Shoalhaven councillor).
• Counting has been finalised for the Northern Territory election of the Saturday before last. Two remote seats thought to be in doubt fell the CLP’s way, Arafura by 1.0% and Stuart by a surprisingly easy 3.5% (larger than the 3.1% in the never-in-doubt Darwin seat of Sanderson). That makes for five CLP gains from Labor (Arafura, Stuart, Arnhem, Daly and, if we use the 2008 election result as the baseline, Namatjira) and a total of 16 seats for the CLP, eight for Labor and one independent. The CLP scored 55.8% of the two-party vote, which is a 5.1% swing compared with the raw 2008 result – remembering that two Labor-held seats were uncontested last time, both of which were won by the CLP this time.
| Seats | Votes | % | Swing | 2PP | Swing | |
| Country Liberal | 16 (+5) | 46,653 | 50.5% | +5.1% | 55.8% | +5.1% |
| Labor | 8 (-5) | 33,862 | 36.6% | -6.5% | 44.2% | -5.1% |
| Independent (11) | 1 (-) | 6,092 | 6.6% | -0.5% | ||
| Greens (10) | 3,039 | 3.3% | -1.0% | |||
| First Nations (8) | 2,048 | 2.2% | ||||
| Sex Party (5) | 717 | 0.8% | ||||
| . | ||||||
| Formal | 92,411 | 96.8% | +0.9% | |||
| Informal | 3,072 | 3.2% | -0.9% | |||
| Enrolment/Turnout | 123,815 | 77.1% | +2.1% | |||
• Also finalised is the count for the New South Wales state by-election for Heffron, also held last Saturday, where Labor’s Ron Hoenig will succeed Kristina Keneally after scoring an easy victory. Even allowing for the absence of a Liberal candidate, the 17.7% hike in the Labor primary vote looks fairly encouraging for them, although taking into account the plunge in turnout the result on raw votes was more modest (an increase of 1631). It was a less happy result for the Greens, whose share of the vote was up only slightly in the absence of strong competition, and down 559 votes in absolute terms.
| Votes | % | Swing | 2PP | % | |
| Ron Hoenig (Labor) | 20,501 | 58.9% | +17.7% | 21,863 | 70.0% |
| Mehreen Faruqi (Greens) | 8,122 | 23.3% | +4.4% | 9,366 | 30.0% |
| Drew Simmons (Democrats) | 3,749 | 10.8% | |||
| Robyn Peebles (Christian Democrats) | 2,442 | 7.0% | +5.1% | ||
| Liberal | -33.3% | ||||
| Independents | -4.6% | ||||
| . | |||||
| Formal | 34,814 | 94.8% | -1.9% | ||
| Informal | 1,910 | 5.2% | +1.9% | ||
| Enrolment/Turnout | 55,712 | 65.9% | -22.8% | ||
Centre.
nothing diswards an abbott lover
Look at them. Here
We know. David and. Rummell would vote. For. Him no matter what
its. Ideology
Or is it. Idle. Ology:-) 🙂 dear leader
So undecides, are thing gosh well abbott. No. Not. Really
greens well no. , but well I’ll wait a few more weeks/ months
Denis Shanahan was on his usual ABC spot analysing Newspoll
He made a prediction. Election August 2013
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crikey whitey
Posted Monday, September 3, 2012 at 10:49 pm | Permalink
Edjucation. Am I too late?
Thai neighbor invited me in for delish meal. Turns out that today she started ESL class. Spent rest of evening helping with her homework.
She is great, the homework was pretty hard. If not esoteric. Friesans, whey, calcium, phosphorous, cottage cheese, fromage frais for goodness sake.
More than rewarding.
I wouldn’t compare Milne with Abbott. She has a very strong policy mind: he’s just a cynical slogan-machine. Her problem is her hostile and accusatory tone, which makes everyone feel guilty for not being virtuous enough, so they stop listening.
[Denis Shanahan was on his usual ABC spot analysing Newspoll]
Antony Green runs rings around the hapless Shanahan any day of the week.
Why oh why does the ABC continue with the services of Shanahan when it has its own electoral analyst on staff? And a person with far more credibility than Dennis Shanahan for heaven’s sake.
[He made a prediction. Election August 2013]
Now that’s the kind of insight you’d gladly pay good money to read.
Thanks Crikey.
My say I reckon I would be one of the least political idealogues on PB 🙂
What would Pyne know about education? I believe he hasn’t asked one Education question in QT in this Parliament.
Psephos:
Milne’s problem is akin to Abbott’s in that she doesn’t allow a broad representation of her members (in Abbott’s case his front bench) to appear in the media.
I saw far more of more moderate Greens MPs during Brown’s tenure as leader than I’ve seen under Milne’s.
As to Abbott and his apparent concentration of media appearances to a certain claque of front benchers, I feel Vanstone of all people nails it.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbotts-big-problem-is-not-his-unpopularity-but-his-team-20120902-2588g.html
The polls have hardly changed all year the last Newspoll was the outlier and Esential and Neilsen more likely. The liberal vote doesn’t move and will not move until hey throw this government out. The polls are consistently 54-55 to 46-45 all that changes is the weak left wing/progressive vote shifting between Labor and the Greens. Liberal voters are not particularlarly rapt in Abbott but that won’t make any difference in just over twelve months.
Gillard’s vote always goes up when she is being Mrs Lotto throwing around $Billions in cash. All her ideas for expenditure are great of course and I wish we could implement them too if we were wealthier as a country than we are but of course when you check he dates for program implementation you get 2014-2020 I.e she will be ancient history by then.
Abbott’s vote will go up next Newspoll because the press will be less critical of his performance Grattan, Oakes, Cassidy etc because this poll shows the Labor trend upwards was a mirage a yeti or unicorn sighting.
Fortunately the last Newspoll stopped the Rudd momentum in its tracks virtually guaranteeing a Gillard run election campaign and we could not be happier. Thanks Newspoll for the last two polls one would almost think it was deliberately confected you can bet old Kevin knows it was!
[Obama must be the luckiest politician in US history. For a man of very little real substance, he’s had an incredible series of lucky breaks.]
LOL! WHAT!?
Obama got through the biggest reform of the U.S. health care system since 1965 even though Republicans have opposed him every step of the way.
He also saved the U.S. economy from what would’ve been complete collapse, oh and he took a risk in order to have Bin Laden killed.
Those things alone put in at least on par with Clinton.
99
The Greens view on refugees is going to get media coverage as long as it is a point of differentiation from other parties and it is such a high profile media issue. SHY is likely to be the Greens spokesperson on the issue as she seems to be the Greens Senator most passionate in the area with a background in campaigning on the issue.
Marriage Equality will die down as an issue once it is in place and then there will be no media coverage on the issue.
Interesting chat on prostate stuff and associated issues. Only heard men callers. Fine with that.
Tried to call in as a female, couldn’t get an answer.
[He made a prediction. Election August 2013]
You call that a prediction?
But but what happened to an early election?
If the Coalition primary vote is up only 2.5% from the last election, I would say the true state at present is 53.5/46.5 on 2PP.
Labor can certainly win it from here in my view 😎
*night*
One thing you can say for the Greens. Small party that they are. They know how to assemble a talented Front Bench, at least compared to the Nationals and Liberals.
The turn to the East …. Egypt and Iran link
__________________
Given the long association of Australia with the problems of the Middle East,it’s notable that the recent links between Pres. Morsi of Egypt and the Iranians and the addition of China to the mix have received little play in our media
Calling it “The Turn to the East” a writer here from “Asia Times” says that it marks the start of a new alliance between Egypt and Iran who will seek to exert a much greater influence in the whole region…given the slow decline of the USA and the new opening of recent days betwen the Saudis and Iran
In this alignment there will be a new influence of the issue of Palestine
Overall looms the presence of China which has strong links with Iran and now will be a major financial backer for the new Egyptian regime
Delroy just said Dennis Shanahan on next.
I am listening to Adelade local.
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I think that in fact the Greens are trying to get media coverage on most issues but it is Milne as leader and SHY because of her portfolio`s issues getting prominence for the Greens view that they getr the higher media coverage.
Or asked one, I think, Puff.
Talking Points Memo says that North Carolina is now a statistical tie:
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/florida-north-carolina-convention-bounce.php?ref=fpa
If Romney can’t win there he will lose in a landslide.
[Marriage Equality will die down as an issue once it is in place ]
You think the bill will get up, do you? On what evidence?
Shows
This before the Democratic Convention starts. President Obama should get a poll bounce from his convention. He is using Bill Clinton as a keynote speaker. Put that together with the Obama oratory and it will be a shock if no Democrat bounce.
Well, well, well……….how solid is Christine Milne’s leadership of the Greens?
It might be her who gets dumped before Gillard or Abbott.
The increase from 9% to 13% for others may reflect a “pox on both your houses”to the major parties…and perhaps in QLand a higher vote for Katter from disaffected LNP voters
,…and in Vic too where Big Ted is increasingly unpopular in the country over the TAFE issues which are biting there
Latest Rasmussen daily poll for nationwide voting intentions Monday 3rd September 2012
Romney 48
Obama 44
That’s the biggest lead he has had
What are you people on
Romney got a boost fom the convention as would be expected
Obama is still favourite but not by much and it will be very close
Right down to the wire
[If Romney can’t win there he will lose in a landslide.]
Shows On: a really good site you’d enjoy is the electoralvote.com one. It currently shows Obama with 332 electoral college votes, although the Democrat leads in states like Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Virginia are only a few points.
The only poll I’ve seen which gave Romney any sort of bounce was Rasmussen, and that’s from a notoriously pro-Republican outfit.
A little for everyone out of Newspoll:
Gillard supporters will highlight the rise in Abbott’s disapproval rating and the improvement in her approval rating.
The Liberals will highlight the improvement in their primary vote & two party preferred vote over the fortnight.
Rudd supporters(or at least Bemused & I) will point out that even with an unpopular Coalition leader, Labor went backwards over the last 2 weeks.
[Shows
This before the Democratic Convention starts. President Obama should get a poll bounce from his convention. He is using Bill Clinton as a keynote speaker. Put that together with the Obama oratory and it will be a shock if no Democrat bounce.]
Yeah, Nate Silver’s model at 538 now gives Obama a 74.5% chance of winning that’s up 5% in the last week and is the highest figure recorded by the model so far. I think it is mainly because of some improvements in the economy and the fact Romney’s convention bounce has been lower than the 4% average.
Interesting that Yahoo7 is reporting it as “momentum stalls” which appears reasonable (MOE considerations aside) rather than anything hysterical.
I was shocked that the Greens vote didnt slide in the aftermath of BB leaving, maybe it is taking time to wash through. Plenty of Others voters parked there ripe for the picking.
121
I did not say the current bill will get up. When it does get through, and I have no doubt that it will in at some point in the not hugely distant future, it will die down as an issue.
Andrew:
Very happy to see reports of ‘momentum stalls’.
It’s way too early for the govt to stage a bull’s roar recovery. I want to see incremental rather than landslide momentum at this stage.
We could be in for a treat. Bob Brown has issued a debate challenge to Gina Rinehart.
Shanahan says Newspoll out tomorrow.
Seems to be saying, result ok for Labor.
Stanny, the popular vote means nothing. Ask Al Gore. It’s the Electoral College vote that counts, and that boils down to who will carry Florida, Ohio and Virginia, plus a few smaller swingers like Colorado and Nevada. At the moment Obama is ahead in all of them, which gives him a large EC lead. If Romney isn’t ahead in those states now, after his VP announcement and his convention, when will he be?
Rasmussen polls favor Repugs by 4% and are not taken seriously by anyone except Fox News who commission them.
[I did not say the current bill will get up. When it does get through, and I have no doubt that it will in at some point in the not hugely distant future, it will die down as an issue.]
If the current bill fails, nothing further will happen before the election. The future of the issue then depends on the election outcome. If Abbott wins the issue will die for the next term. Only if Labor wins well will it come back.
Stanny: Romney’s probably got big leads in solid red states where Obama would never have a chance in a million years.
Assuming young people, blacks & hispanics turn out in big numbers in November, and the gender gap remains, Obama should win this thing comfortably
All waffle aside. (Read that tomorrow, if you are silly enough).
Dennis carefully hedging about slight improvements over time, for Labor, if I am reading tobfuscation.
My cous Pammie Wright on now.
I don’t know why anyone even bothers to conduct national popular vote polls in the US. It’s not a national election. It’s 51 separate elections for Electoral College delegates.
William
Get that?
Newspoll out tomorrow.
Horse’s mouth.
After the Eastwood incident sucked all of the oxygen out of the final day of the GOP convention, the Dems will have the advantage this week. They just need to have a convention without major controversy, capped off with a good acceptance speech by Obama (which he is good at) and they kick off the part of the part of the election campaign that counts with an advantage.
Needless to say, I will be watching the DNC with great interest to gauge themes and get ideas for who to look out for in the future…
[ If Abbott wins the issue will die for the next term. Only if Labor wins well will it come back.]
That suggests the Greens will let the issue go despite holding the BoP in the Senate, and despite the GReens leadership referencing SSM whenever it can.
When the biggest highlight of your convention is Clint Eastwood debating with an empty chair, you know you have a problem.
With politics so stage managed, I don’t know who vetted that idiocy.
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I agree about nothing further significant happening until the election, if the current bill fails.
Fortunately, it is looking increasingly like Abbott will not be winning the election.
[I don’t know why anyone even bothers to conduct national popular vote polls in the US. It’s not a national election. It’s 51 separate elections for Electoral College delegates.]
Same reason that we count the popular vote here: Curiousity.
Although, the side effect is it sets up all kinds of spin depending on the outcome…
[With politics so stage managed, I don’t know who vetted that idiocy.]
Whoever it was. They should be relocated to the back room of campaign headquarters and made to fill envelopes for the rest of the election!
LABOR’S political momentum has suffered a small setback, although voter satisfaction with Julia Gillard’s performance has jumped to a seven-month high as the Prime Minister crusades on core ALP issues.
According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend, Labor’s primary vote, after a seven-point rise during July and last month, has dropped to 33 per cent from 35 per cent two weeks ago.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up one point to 46 per cent, while support for the Greens has fallen to a three-year low of 8 per cent.
Based on preference flows at the 2010 election, the Coalition holds a 10-point, election-winning lead of 55 per cent to 45 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis compared with 53 per cent to 47 per cent two weeks ago.
A two-point drop is within the margin of error of this Newspoll survey but the move is a slight setback to the hopes that Labor’s recovery would continue as the Gillard government dumped unpopular policies and promoted others viewed as Labor strengths.
Despite the slip for Labor, voter satisfaction with the Prime Minister improved as satisfaction with Tony Abbott fell.
Ms Gillard also went one point ahead of the Opposition Leader as preferred prime minister, 39 per cent to his unchanged 38 per cent, for her best result since June.
Full details of the latest Newspoll survey will be available in The Australian newspaper and online on Tuesday.
The Australian.
[That suggests the Greens will let the issue go despite holding the BoP in the Senate, and despite the GReens leadership referencing SSM whenever it can.]
Sadly for the Greens, we have a bicameral parliament.
A hidden issue in the US poll
_______
In “The American Conservative” today Phillip Giraldi says that the question of an attack on Iran by Israel is still a possible”October Surprise” in the US campaign
He claims that Israel is virtualiy demanding through it’s many spokesmen in the US,,, a media pledge from Obama to attack Iran in the new year…as a quid pro quo..for NO attack before the Presidential poll
On the other hand there are those warning the White House there may be catastrophic events in the Gulf if such attacks occur,,,including a huge rise on oil prices and the closure of the Gulf …and the collapse of some Euro economies in the aftermath of such a rise
Giraldi looks at Obama’s dilemma,given the very frigid relations know to exist between he and Netanyahu
A war in the Gulf would sweep aside all other events in the USA in the days between now and November
It’s hard to know how US voters would react to an Israeli attack…which greatly affected petrol prices at the pump …who would they blame…how would the Reps react too ?
Giraldi looks at these issues
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/entangled-with-israel/
NEWSPOLL!