James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead back up from 53-47 to 55-45, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (down two), 46% for the Coalition (up one), 8% for the Greens (down three, which as Poliquant notes in comments is their worst result since March 2009) and 13% for others (up four). Julia Gillard has the nonetheless opened the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, moving from 38-38 to 39-38. Personal ratings are more in line with the media narrative of the last few weeks, with Julia Gillard recording a 7% improvement on net approval and Tony Abbott recording an 8% decline. Gillard is up four on approval to 31% and down three on disapproval to 57%, while Abbott is down three to 31% and up five to 59%.
UPDATE: The Morgan face-to-face poll covering last weekend’s polling (for some reason the August 26-27 weekend seems to have been dispensed with) has Labor further improving on the previous result, which was its best since March. Labor is steady on the primary vote at 34.5%, but the Coalition is down 2.5% to 41.5% and the Greens are up 1.5% to 11.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, the two-party preferred gap has narrowed slightly from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5. However, the move on the previous election measure of two-party preferred is more substantial: from 53-47 to 51.5-48.5.
The weekly Essential Research report has fallen into line with other pollsters in giving Labor its best result since March – up two on the primary vote to 34% and one on two-party preferred to 55-45. The Coalition’s primary vote is down a point to 48% after no fewer than 12 consecutive weeks at 49%, its lowest since April. The poll finds 52% believing female politicians receive more criticism than men against only 4% for less and 40% for the same, and very similar results (51%, 6% and 38%) when the subject is narrowed to Julia Gillard specifically. A question on which groups would be better off under Labor or Liberal governments find traditional perceptions of the parties are as strong as ever, with wide gaps according to whether the group could be perceived as disadvantaged (pensioners, unemployed, disabled) or advantaged (high incomes, large corporations, families of private school children). Respondents continue to think it likely that a Coalition government would bring back laws similar to WorkChoices (51% likely against 25% unlikely).
Other news:
• The Victorian Liberals have preselected candidates for three Labor-held federal seats. Ben Collier, managing director of Sunbury-based information technology consultancy Collier Pereira Services, won preselection last weekend to contest McEwen, where redistribution has boosted Labor member Rob Mitchell’s margin from 5.3% to 9.2% by adding the area around Sunbury. In Bendigo, transport business owner Greg Bickley has been chosen to run against Lisa Chesters, who will defend Labor’s 9.4% margin after the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons. In Bruce, Emanuele Cicchiello, school teacher, Knox councillor and candidate for Holt in 2007, will run against Labor member Alan Griffin, whose margin is 7.7%.
• AAP reports the Liberal National Party in Queensland has attracted seven candidates for preselection in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, five in Kirsten Livermore’s seat of Capricornia and four in Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy, although the names of the candidates have not been published. However, it is known that former Australian Medical Association president Bill Glasson is among the starters in Griffith. Meanwhile, Clive Palmer has finally put an end to his over-reported pretend bid for preselection, on the pretext that he “can’t support Coalition policy on refugees and political lobbyists”.
• The ABC reports former Australian rugby union coach John Connolly is “expected to announce soon” that he will contest the LNP preselection to succeed retiring Alex Somlyay in Fairfax, having failed in his bid for the Labor-held Brisbane seat of Petrie. “Local solicitor Swain Roberts and businessman Terry O’Brien” are also expected to nominate. Former LNP director James McGrath, who appeared to have the numbers sewn up before deciding to take on Mal Brough in Fisher, now seems to have his eyes elsewhere.
• Alex Arnold of the Illawarra Mercury reports Neil Reilly, who also ran in 2007 and 2010, has emerged as the only nominee for Labor preselection in the south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, which will be vacated by the retirement of Liberal incumbent Joanna Gash. Reilly was initially rebuffed before the 2010 election when the party’s national executive installed former South Sydney rugby league player David Boyle, who later withdrew after widespread local criticism over the imposition of a non-local (though he is now a Shoalhaven councillor).
• Counting has been finalised for the Northern Territory election of the Saturday before last. Two remote seats thought to be in doubt fell the CLP’s way, Arafura by 1.0% and Stuart by a surprisingly easy 3.5% (larger than the 3.1% in the never-in-doubt Darwin seat of Sanderson). That makes for five CLP gains from Labor (Arafura, Stuart, Arnhem, Daly and, if we use the 2008 election result as the baseline, Namatjira) and a total of 16 seats for the CLP, eight for Labor and one independent. The CLP scored 55.8% of the two-party vote, which is a 5.1% swing compared with the raw 2008 result – remembering that two Labor-held seats were uncontested last time, both of which were won by the CLP this time.
| Seats | Votes | % | Swing | 2PP | Swing | |
| Country Liberal | 16 (+5) | 46,653 | 50.5% | +5.1% | 55.8% | +5.1% |
| Labor | 8 (-5) | 33,862 | 36.6% | -6.5% | 44.2% | -5.1% |
| Independent (11) | 1 (-) | 6,092 | 6.6% | -0.5% | ||
| Greens (10) | 3,039 | 3.3% | -1.0% | |||
| First Nations (8) | 2,048 | 2.2% | ||||
| Sex Party (5) | 717 | 0.8% | ||||
| . | ||||||
| Formal | 92,411 | 96.8% | +0.9% | |||
| Informal | 3,072 | 3.2% | -0.9% | |||
| Enrolment/Turnout | 123,815 | 77.1% | +2.1% | |||
• Also finalised is the count for the New South Wales state by-election for Heffron, also held last Saturday, where Labor’s Ron Hoenig will succeed Kristina Keneally after scoring an easy victory. Even allowing for the absence of a Liberal candidate, the 17.7% hike in the Labor primary vote looks fairly encouraging for them, although taking into account the plunge in turnout the result on raw votes was more modest (an increase of 1631). It was a less happy result for the Greens, whose share of the vote was up only slightly in the absence of strong competition, and down 559 votes in absolute terms.
| Votes | % | Swing | 2PP | % | |
| Ron Hoenig (Labor) | 20,501 | 58.9% | +17.7% | 21,863 | 70.0% |
| Mehreen Faruqi (Greens) | 8,122 | 23.3% | +4.4% | 9,366 | 30.0% |
| Drew Simmons (Democrats) | 3,749 | 10.8% | |||
| Robyn Peebles (Christian Democrats) | 2,442 | 7.0% | +5.1% | ||
| Liberal | -33.3% | ||||
| Independents | -4.6% | ||||
| . | |||||
| Formal | 34,814 | 94.8% | -1.9% | ||
| Informal | 1,910 | 5.2% | +1.9% | ||
| Enrolment/Turnout | 55,712 | 65.9% | -22.8% | ||
Zoomster,
11 years too late! 👿 😀
[How do they allocate the preferences for others?]
They just exclude those respondents. They aren’t counted in the primary or 2pp figures.
This makes sense, there’s no reason to suspect the people who refuse to give an answer would end up going with one side or the other. THey will more than likely split in closely the same way as the 2pp figure.
[I wondered if might happen, its been all Afghanistan plus some stuff on the boats for all of the polling period. People hate the war.]
It’s buyer’s remorse, the “Christ! What have I done?” syndrome.
They went a bit soft on Gillard and now they’re wondering WTF happened to get them to do it/.
A few drifted back, that’s all. Things will settle down.
Poll Average and Seat Projection update after today’s Essential and Newspoll
http://poliquant.com/australia/
[Others 13% = voters think “yawn”.]
‘Others’ at 13% is very high.
Suggests we won’t get an accurate 2PP until an election is called.
RoyO
[Sooner or later, he is going to have to front up for another by-election. He may as well have tried his hand here.]
Liberals will field a candidate in the imminent Sydney byelection and I rather suspect they will be fighting that hard to win (post Clover Moore resignation)
Thanks Poliquant
[‘Others’ at 13% is very high.
Suggests we won’t get an accurate 2PP until an election is called.]
WTF? 87% of people gave a response, why is that less important than the 13% who didn’t?
Sounds like wishful thinking to me.
As Finnigans points out above, people aren’t shifting back to the Coalition, they’re just moving from ALP/Greens to undecided territory. Seems incredible to me that the ALP should have to keep making a case for itself, when you look at the wasteland on the other side of the chamber. But it looks a little like it did a couple of years ago, where the Coalition commanded about 44/45% There’s about 10% I’d say that’s up for grabs. There’s not much prospect of the Coalition winning them back, seeing as they have nothing to say any more. So they’ll flop about for a bit, and then we’ll see.
They should just keep asking enough people until they get a response and exclude the others completely.
It’s not like people can vote undecided at an election.
The photos of. Abbott on late line. Not flattering
Thanks Spur
That poll is disappointing but to be expected with the whole week about ‘where is the money coming from – govt. spending too much’, super trawler, Cubbie Station, Afghanistan. It wipes out the good messages it seems.
If I were an ALP insider (and who knows, perhaps I am), I’d be reasonably happy with this poll. The rising dissatisfaction with Abbott and the big jump in Others votes are encouraging.
The growing anti-Abbott I sense out there among non-Labor voters looks like is starting to set in. An electorate that’s becoming more and more nervous and distrustful of the Opposition isn’t going to vote for them. They’ll ultimately go with the devil they know, but for now they’ll tell the pollsters “Other”.
I don’t think ShowsOn quite has a handle on Henry’s question – he’s asking about “Others”, not undecided. The answer is that they get allocated according to how the preferences of “others” (i.e. everybody but Labor, Coalition and Greens) split at the last election, which was 58.3% to the Coalition and 41.7% to Labor. This is potentially a weakness in the Newspoll 2PP calculation if the composition of the “others” vote has changed in important ways, but Katter’s Australian Party notwithstanding (and much of their vote would have come off other right-wing minors), I don’t expect it would have much.
Edjucation. Am I too late?
Thai neighbor invited me in for delish meal. Turns out that today she started ESL class. Spent rest of evening helping with her homework.
She is great, the homework was pretty hard. If not esoteric. Friesans, whey, calcium, phosphorous, cottage cheese, fromage frais for goodness sake.
More than rewarding.
It’s pretty much what I was expecting. But I was hoping I was wrong.
I’ll be dodging the news services tomorrow.
William
The Newspoll always = 100 comment is not accurate, as they exclude the refusals, usually 9-11%.
Sprocket, my point was that the results they publish for Labor, Coalition, Greens and Others add up to 100.
Roy Orbison, given that NSW state Labor is still at a very low ebb, one would expect the Greens to do well in any NSW by-election regardless of the demographics of the seat. Hoenig was chosen mainly because he has local credibility and that’s part of the explanation, but even so, with no Liberal running the Greens should have done much better in an inner-urban seat.
I’ve been assuming that the Greens will again win a Senate seat in every state next year, but that’s starting to look a bit less likely.
I’m beginning to suspect the Greens Party vote might be going to the Others
One of the problems the ALP tends to have is that sledgehammering opponents doesn’t equate to ALP support. I think this comes back to what Keating talks about in regards to having a coherent uplifiting story/narrative
Darn we never watch or listen any way
don’t give them the time of day
No media needed
Good to see Abbott’s disapproval rating at nearly 60% again. If he does win in 2013 he’ll be starting with zero credibility.
I reckon that’s on the high side.
Surely it had. Nothing. To do with any thing
Except who. They ring and those who answer the phone
Last poll more labor people answered the phone this time more dark side answered the phone
Don’t need a degree to work. That out
Correct William, thanks.
The guy on ABC News 24 sounds drunk.
If I were an ALP insider (and who knows, perhap. Meherbeber. Wrote
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
@NKingofDC: Gallup finds GOP convention packed least punch of any since ’84. Romney’s speech gets lowest marks since ’96. #DNC2012 http://t.co/UuWY47im
[WTF? 87% of people gave a response, why is that less important than the 13% who didn’t?]
Because an election is not imminent, which means that people who aren’t enamored of the govt, yet are repulsed by what the opposition represents park their vote with the relative safety of ‘others’.
My say, hello. Consolations on your recent.
Re iPad jumping back to top of page.
Any solution to hand?
HENRY THE HORSE DANCES A WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALTZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
At least if Abbott starts with zero credibility then he shouldn’t suffer the same buyer remorse Newman is at present 🙂
He may surprise people. Not likely but miracles do happen.
Crickey
I thought the terminology. Was. Freezing:-)
My. Tech o son in law tells me
Its not recognizing my touch
One thing I. Have noticed its. Mainly on this site
Co incidence, don’t. Know
Is this site, my say, in my experience.
Tried it on others, doesn’t happen.
[@NKingofDC: Gallup finds GOP convention packed least punch of any since ’84. Romney’s speech gets lowest marks since ’96.]
Holy crap! Look at Clinton’s figures in 1992! Net Impact of +45!
Let’s put others with alp
What do u get then
Id. Say if. They are voting liberal they would say. Liberal.
Don’t u. Think
After all the liberal voters here, after all they see and read here
Still would. Now that’s tells u something
So swinger must be labor, or green
I bet if there was an approval-disapproval rating for Bob Brown vs Milne that Brown would rate much more highly. I think the drop in the Greens vote is real and due to a leader who doesn’t come across as well as Brown.
Nothing too amiss with my fingers. (gratefully)
So it is not ‘your touch’.
Agree. , crickey
I have lots of. Crafty sites. No problem
I don’t spend much time here now
life is too short
My iPhone jumps back to the top of the page. The only way to avoid this is to wait until the page is completely loaded before scrolling through posts.
It’s a real pain and I don’t think there is any way around it short of increasing your download speed.
We all know that this poll is an outlier, afterall the last poll was obviously acturate as it showed the LP making a comeback so it must have been 100% acurate.
Roy Orbison I was in Zetland/Alexandria just recently – instant gentrification. It reminded me of Docklands in Melbourne – a big and sudden green/small l liberal area.
Pyne is making himself a big target here, but Emma is not making him pay.
No. Its technical. According. To. S. I l
who is arguing for a new one. For me
Waiting on replies.
Let u. Know
But I down load teaching videos.
Enjoy sew forums no probs
Romney comes out of his convention trailling in the three Big Swinging States, FL, OH and VA. I really don’t see how he can win, given what a poor speaker and campaigner he is. Obama must be the luckiest politician in US history. For a man of very little real substance, he’s had an incredible series of lucky breaks.
my say
You know something, you could be right.
With all the kid gloves treatment Abbott receives from the media, surely people would say that they intend to vote for Abbott?
A 46% primary for the Coalition is, how much of an increase from the last election?
Davidwh
Haven’t tried on the very recently acquired iPhone.
But on iPad, waiting for load does not stop it happening.
Dio:
In many ways Milne is experiencing the same problems Abbott is: media presentation concentrated in the hands of a few MPs. In the Greens case it’s SHY and Milne, arguably both repulsive to mainstream voters.
I can’t remember the last time I heard from Rachel Siewart, and only stumbled upon Scott Ludlum flashing past Sky News the other night. Ditto hearing from the Greens on environmental issues. Yet SHY dominates with refugees and same sex marriage.
If the Greens want to appeal to mainstream voters, they need to start campaigning on mainstream issues.
Brown. Was the greens