GhostWhoVotes tweets that a Galaxy poll on federal voting intention in Queensland gives the Coalition a two-party lead of 57-43 – a seven-point turn-around in Labor’s favour since the last such poll three months ago, suggesting a swing to the Coalition/LNP of only 2% since the 2010 election. Leaving aside the Labor-skewed Morgan face-to-face series, the last time a published poll of federal voting intention showed a swing that low was the Newspoll of May 27-29, 2011, which had the Coalition leading 52-48 nationally. The only Queensland seat Labor would lose on a uniform swing of that size would be Moreton, held by Graham Perrett on a margin of 1.1% (the present numbers in Queensland are 21 seats for the LNP, eight for Labor and one for Bob Katter). The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up seven on the previous poll) and 49% for the Coalition (down seven). The poll also finds 52% detecting little or no impact of the carbon tax on their household budget, against 15% for “major impact” and 27% for “minor impact”. New asylum seeker laws are rated “strong” by 26% of respondents, “inhumane” by 18% and “too little too late” by 51%. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, and has a margin of error of about 3.5%.
UPDATE: The Sunday Mail today has further results from the poll which show “two out of three people believe the Premier is going too far with his proposal to cut 20,000 public sector jobs”, together with figures showing widespared feelings of job insecurity, particularly among government employees.
Further evidence of the Queensland elastic snapping back was provided earlier this week by ReachTEL, which conducted automated phone polls of three seats out of the many which the LNP won from Labor at the state election. These showed Labor leading in two of the seats and lineball in the third. My own calculation of two-party preferred results based on preferences from the previous election had Labor leading 60-40 in Sandgate, a swing to the of 13%, and 51-49 in Brisbane Central, a swing to them of 6%. I had the LNP 51-49 ahead in Towsville, but Possum has it at 51-49 in Labor’s favour – no doubt having used a formula that took better account of the decline of the Katter’s Australian Party vote. The poll also found Campbell Newman’s personal ratings in Sandgate and Townsville in Tony Abbott if not Julia Gillard territory, though he scored better in Brisbane Central. There was similarly a strong view he had not kept his promises in Sandgate and Townville, but an even divide of opinion in Brisbane Central. The samples on each poll were around 400, for margins of error approaching 5%.
And not forgetting …
Seat of the week: Lingiari
I’ve previously been limited my Seat of the Week choices to seats where both parties have preselected candidates, but am making an exception today in a spirit of keeping things topical. The federal seat of Lingiari covers the entirety of the Northern Territory outside of Darwin, which for the most part will play second fiddle during tomorrow night’s election count: whereas Darwin’s suburbs teem with marginal seats, the remainder is largely divided between Country Liberal Party strongholds in Alice Springs and Labor strongholds elsewhere. However, the tea-leaves of the regional and remote results will be read carefully for federal implications given Labor member Warren Snowdon’s narrow margin in Lingiari, and recent rumours of Labor internal polling showing him headed for defeat.
The Northern Territory was first granted its own seat in the federal parliament in 1922, but its member did not attain full voting rights until 1968. Perhaps not coincidentally, the seat had recently fallen to Sam Calder of the Country Party after a long period of Labor control. The Country Liberal Party was established in 1978 as a local alliance between coalition parties to contest elections in the the newly established Northern Territory parliament, and Grant Tambling succeeded Calder as its members upon the latter’s retirement at the 1980 election. Tambling was unseated by Labor’s John Reeves in 1983, and returned as a Senator four years later. The seat thereafter changed hands with some regularity: future Chief Minister Paul Everingham recovered it for the CLP in 1984, Warren Snowdon won it back for Labor in 1987, Nick Dondas held it for the CLP for one term from 1996, and Snowdon recovered it in 1998.
The population of the Northern Territory is such that it consistently hovers between an entitlement of one or two seats according to the formula used to allocate seats to the states and territories. It first rose above the line prior to the 2001 election, resulting in the territory’s division between Solomon, covering Darwin, and Lingiari, which in accommodating the entire remainder of the territory is the second largest electorate in geographical terms after Durack in Western Australia. However, when the Australian Electoral Commission next conducted its mid-term determination of seat entitlements the Northern Territory had fallen 295 residents short of the number required to its second seat. With Labor and the Coalition both convinced they could win both seats at the 2004 election, the parliament proved amenable to arguments that the determination left the territory under-represented, and passed legislation to reinstate the second seat. Solomon and Lingiari accordingly have the lowest enrolments of any seats in Australia at around 62,000, compared with a national average of about 95,000 (which together with the extensive use of mobile booths explains the scarcity of numbers on the 2010 results map at the bottom of the post).
Lingiari is notable for having by far the highest proportion of indigenous persons of any seat in the country, at 41.8% against 15.7% for second-placed Durack. Relatedly, and depressingly, it also has the lowest median age of any electorate. The support of Aboriginal voters has given Labor enough of a base to have kept the seat in their hands, despite CLP strength in pastoral areas and the urban centres of Alice Springs, Katherine and Tennant Creek. Labor’s margins have progressed over four elections from 5.3% to 7.7% to 11.2% to 3.7%. The diversity of the electorate’s components can make for enormously complicated election results, as demonstrated by local swings over the last three elections. In the wake of the Howard government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities before the 2007 election, mobile polling booths swung 8.4% to Warren Snowdon off an already very high base of 78.7%. However, it was a very different story in 2010, when these booths swung to the CLP by no less than 28.1% – a result variously put down to the troubled Strategic Indigenous Housing and Infrastructure Program, the actions of newly merged regional councils, and the ongoing suspension of the Racial Discrimination Act by the new Labor government. Remarkably, the swings in Alice Springs were in the opposite direction, with Snowdon down 2.6% in 2007 and up 8.4% in 2010. In Tennant Creek the Labor vote fell from 58.7% to 34.2% while the Greens rocketed from 4.6% to 33.7%, a result credited to the Muckaty Station nuclear waste dump proposal.
Snowdon is a figure in Labor’s Left faction, and has held junior ministry positions since the Rudd government came to power in 2007. He had earlier been a parliamentary secretary during his first stint as a member from 1990 to 1996, again reaching the position in opposition after the 2001 election. After the 2007 election win he received a substantial promotion to the junior defence science and personnel ministry, which Glenn Milne in The Australian credited to his close association with Julia Gillard. Snowdon was demoted to indigenous health, rural and regional services after Joel Fitzgibbon resigned as Defence Minister in June 2009, which Philip Dorling of the Canberra Times put down to incoming Defence Minister John Faulkner’s “longstanding lack of enthusiasm” for him, “and perhaps more specific concerns about the contribution Mr Snowdon’s office may have made in the past week to Fitzgibbon’s downfall”. He recovered defence science after the 2010 election and further gained veterans affairs, while dropping rural and regional services.
Grey
You need to more than apologise to bemused. What possessed you truly? This is a political blog. For all our differences, those comments are totally uncalled for.
womble
I think he is a male chauvinist pig but it is a subject best touched on then to move on, just seed it and leave it.
Bemused – FYI I have never found your post boring.
For the benefit of those who are mystified, I lost my eldest son to suicide some years ago.
I don’t hide the fact but I don’t talk about it on a political blog except where it has a political aspect, such as my being invited to attend the Getup campaign outside Parliament House and join in presenting a petition to Mark Butler.
I also recently made reference to recording a video for a not for profit organisation on the subject.
No frank does not repeat have a ……..pond.
Rummel its u that should be worried about your leader.
No us
We are more worried about what effects it / he would have on our children
Now he s mentioned putting up uni fees
I take it u must be a very wealthy parent
Thanks to those expressing support, particularly old sparring partners like confessions. 😉
reposting
bemused
In the past we have discussed the issue on this blog, and many of us PBs including yourself have mentioned their own experiences. Whilst I believe we should talk about this distressing and tragic occurrence in general terms. I cannot for the life of me understand why grey chose to attack you in this way. I could sense the posts were alluding to the topic, and hence the sick feeling in my stomach. Alas, grey did not take heed. I sometimes do not understand why we need to stoop so low in the discourse.
Puff – if you look at who is voting for who in the polls, women are mostly already on Julia’s side, men not so – giving them more reason not to switch isn’t smart imo
[Grey
You need to more than apologise to bemused. What possessed you truly? This is a political blog. For all our differences, those comments are totally uncalled for]
I know, there are no words. Sorry is the best I can do.
I think I can safely say that in the heat of the moment we can all say things that we immediately regret. I know I do. I know I have to bemused. I guess it’s because he is so stubbornly of the view that the answer to Labor’s poor polling is not the fruits of implementation, but Kevin Rudd.
As I say, we all have our faults. 🙂
Suffice to say, as I stated yesterday, it’s the low blows to the defenseless members of our families, alive and no longer alive, from others on a blog, that cut the deepest. That’s why I don’t think I’ve ever done it. I hope I never do anyway. And anyone who does is just plain wRONg and has immediately lost the argument.
bemused, is after all, ‘one of us’. Despite his fatal flaw. 😉
Let’s keep our eye on the real Opposition, shall we?
And just let Kevin keep painting himself into an ever decreasing corner. 😀
We all have better things to do with our time than fight over him.
Womble – I am not sure how true it is but apparently the Liberal Party does not win elections without winning the Women vote
Grey dont go..
Lets move on’
Grey how old are you?
Yeah, well that’s two or three pages worth of reading I can’t get back.
Was only thinking last week how good it was to see people helping rummel out despite being political oponents, the good humour in which that was done all round and what it says about PB. Then this. There’s no place for what I’ve just read on this page. It’s appalling.
Like the Auspol stream on twitter there for a while. It’s not on.
victoria @ 1409
I can handle it, it was a long time ago now and the pain has dulled. But I have maintained the rage and keep campaigning on the issue by appropriate means.
I will also discuss and answer any questions put with proper motives.
But then on tne other hand we do in life need to sometimes talk things through
Even if it is with total strangers,
May be it helps ,
grey 1411
Apology accepted. Let’s move on with no hard feelings. You are also ill-informed on the matter.
I hope William just chops this out and we can move on. Maybe Bemused can try to forgive Grey.
bemused
I am sure you have handled it as well as anyone could. It is up to you if you accept grey’s unreserved apology.
bemused – simply the mention by someone other that you in the first instance is totally unacceptable.
That is very impressive Bemused. Thank you.
Jesus.
I really hope William pops by soon and removes 1380.
Bemused: I am so sorry. That was beyond “below the belt”. 🙁
{hugs}
bemused
You are an intelligent person and as c@tmomma said despite your fatal flaw, we are on the same side. 🙂
C@tmomma @ 1412
[I think I can safely say that in the heat of the moment we can all say things that we immediately regret. I know I do. I know I have to bemused. I guess it’s because he is so stubbornly of the view that the answer to Labor’s poor polling is not the fruits of implementation, but Kevin Rudd.]
Despite our occasional dust-ups, I have always admired and respected you for the adversity you have coped with.
As regards the second part of that paragraph, I agree with all the policies implemented and intended to be implemented. Where I see the weakness is in presentation and conveying the message.
There are a few other aspects to this I won’t go into as I don’t want to just go over old ground again.
Grey
You are a pathetic low life piece of sh!t.
grey.
I really really really do hope that your comment was an example ,all be it extreme, of “It seemed like a good idea at the time.”.
Danny Lewis @ 1423
Hug appreciated and reciprocated.
I win my fight with the nasturtiums and come back and …
Group hug time, I think. Or peace pipe. Or a few soothing bevvies of one’s choice.
DL
Jesus is commenting on this blog?!! 😀
Diogenes @ 1428
[Grey
You are a pathetic low life piece of sh!t.]
Please read my 1419.
The slate is wiped clean.
C’mon rummel – you should do the cane toad as an affirmation of group solidarity.
[ Latika Bourke @latikambourke 18m
Abbott cites carbon & exports ‘no surprise that Julia Gillard was told to stay away from the Territory during the election campaign.’]
View details ·
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 24m
Oppn Leader Tony Abbott congrats new CLP Govt – ‘Unlike the Prime Minister, I campaigned in the Territory during the election campaign.’]
View details ·
bemused
[Posted Sunday, August 26, 2012 at 2:24 pm | Permalink
grey 1411
Apology accepted. Let’s move on with no hard feelings. You are also ill-informed on the matter.]
Accepted gratefully, last thing I need is PB’s on my back, I’ve got my own.
bemused
I read your comment. It doesn’t change the facts of the matter. Grey needs to have a long hard look at himself.
Would’ve been nice to have a Labor win in the NT yesterday (big swings back to ALP in Heffron will have to do)..
If the public sector come under attack in Darwin with the new CLP govt perhaps Solomon may offset the now under threat Lingiari? Would a new ALP candidate in Lingiari help or make things worse?
Bemused I think you are too forgiving.
I think Grey should do the right thing and leave permanently.
CTar1 @ 1422
[bemused – simply the mention by someone other that you in the first instance is totally unacceptable.]
I understand what you are trying to say but disagree.
It is all to do with motivation and intention.
If someone had a genuine question I would be quite at ease answering it.
Opinion has swung to the view that it is something that needs to be brought out into the open and addressed as hushing it all up hasn’t worked.
[Or a few soothing bevvies of one’s choice.]
I’m having a white wine if that helps. 🙂
docantk
William has said this on the topic
[• Coming after the electoral tsunamis which swept all before them in New South Wales and Queensland, Labor can take heart at having turned in a creditable result in Darwin. Since Darwin ranks second only to Canberra for concentration of public servants, it’s very easy to believe that Labor enjoyed a dividend from the Campbell Newman’s job-slashing in Queensland, which both Labor and Unions NT went to great lengths to emphasise in their campaign advertising. Labor will be further encouraged that this might prove of advantage to them federally.
• The Darwin results give Labor reason to hope they might be able to recover Solomon, where they were narrowly defeated in 2010. As Adam Carr notes in comments, Labor now has a locally well-regarded former Chief Minister looking for a new line of work, and whose resume looks pretty well suited for the position of federal election candidate.
• On the other hand, Labor’s member for Lingiari, Warren Snowdon, has cause to feel very nervous. The 2010 election saw his margin slashed from 11.2% to 3.7% which, as previously noted, was driven by huge swings in remote areas that were counter-balanced by a 8.4% swing in his favour in Alice Springs. The territory election result suggests the former trend might not yet have run its course.
• The result will presumably focus attention on the federal government’s handling of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander affairs and in particular the responsible minister, Jenny Macklin]
CTar1
[C’mon rummel – you should do the cane toad as an affirmation of group solidarity]
This cane toad I hope 🙂 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhGXbRU9FP8
bemused
[The slate is wiped clean.]
Very generous of you and I expect not easily done.
Jolyon Wagg @ 1438
[Bemused I think you are too forgiving.
I think Grey should do the right thing and leave permanently.]
Will you be surprised if I disagree?
Grey has been well and truly jumped on and kicked.
I am sure a lesson has been learnt.
rummel,
Hey Rumms, there’s something I have been meaning to ask you since out Canberra trip.
Have you any relationship to the infamous, Sir Garfield?
The 2010 swing result in Alice Springs is interesting, my understanding is that the Alice is usually a strong CLP area.
Tone seems to be well regarded within the Aboriginal community for his efforts to get out there and mingle with them and get to know them at local level, this is very important for any politician.
I’ve been out while all this blew up but I agree. The remarks made above in relation to bemused were utterly reprehensible. It’s the sort of thing one occasionally sees on the crazy right of the blogosphere.
I note that grey is now apologising profusely, as well he/she should but also agree with those who say the remark should be deleted. It has no place in anywhere people call themselves civilised. We can disagree sharply, find the attitudes others hold to public policy objectionable or absurd or naive, but if we are concerned with the well-being of our fellow human beings, we ought never to trade on the personal losses and trials of others.
I imagine that even grey would wish that remark removed now.
well dont get stuck in to grey please
thats dreadful, also.
grey may have something on his / her mind.
you cannot jump on here and say things about people
grey has probably gone off in tears now.
and you all getting stuck in shame on you all
joylan
I think there are people who can live and learn.
mb
The Right have been talking about the “conservative indigenous” movement for a while now. It looks like it has happened.
Frann i so so so agree with you.