James J relates that Newspoll has Labor up further on a surprisingly strong result a fortnight ago: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is down from 54-46 to 53-47, and the primary votes are 35% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (steady) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Labor was last this high on two-party preferred in March, and on primaries when Labor enjoyed a brief spike in the days before Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge. Despite this, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have weakened still further, her approval down two points to 27% and disapproval up one to 60%, while Tony Abbott continues what seems to be a steady upward trend over recent months: his approval is up two to 34% and his disapproval is down two to 54%. And on another counter-intuitive note, the latest poll nonetheless has Julia Gillard drawing level on preferred prime minister at 38% apiece, compared with a 38-36 lead for Abbott last time.
UPDATE: Morgan’s face-to-face poll covering the last two weekends also gives Labor it’s best result since March: their primary vote is up 2.5% to 34.5%, although the Coalition is also up half a point to 44%, with the Greens down 1.5% to 10%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is down from 56-44 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 to 53-47 on previous election preferences.
Newspoll having turned in results which look relatively kind to Labor twice in a row, I thought now might be a good time to review the recent performance of the pollsters relative to each other. I have done this by calculating averaged quarterly results for each regularly reporting pollster going back to the start of 2009 (with separate results included for the respondent-allocated and previous-election figures from Morgan’s face-to-face polls). The first chart shows the progress over that time of Labor’s two-party vote.
This shows an impressive consistency of trends once weekly/fortnightly/monthly fluctuations are ironed out. The closest we get to an aberration is the April-June 2009 result from Nielsen, which conducted only one poll in that period. A clearer indication of pollsters’ “house biases” can be provided if we convert the results into deviations from the average of the four pollsters (using the previous election measure for Morgan for the sake of consistency).
This indeed shows that Newspoll has lately been more generous to Labor than at any other point in the time covered, but the difference with Essential Research is still fairly modest. Nielsen, it would seem, has reliably been a point or two worse for Labor than Newspoll over the entire period. Essential favoured Labor in the early days of operation, apparently due to methodological teething problems, but has closely matched Newspoll throughout the current parliamentary term. It is true that a gap has opened in the two most recent observations, but I would want to see this continued over a longer time frame before reading much into it.
The widely recognised lean to Labor in Morgan-face-to-face polls is shown up fairly clearly on the respondent-allocated result, although the other pollsters “caught up” with it at the peak of the Rudd honeymoon. As I’ve probably said about a million times now, the gap which opened up between respondent-allocated and previous-election two-party results in early 2011 is an inexplicable quirk of Morgan’s. The respondent-allocated results produced by Nielsen show no such pattern, and if I had gone to the bother of including separate measures, it would have hugged the previous-election line as closely as Morgan’s did over the first half of the chart.
Taken together, the average two-party results for Labor since the 2010 election have been 45.9% from Newspoll, 44.2% from Nielsen, 45.7% from Essential, 48.1% from Morgan previous-election, and 45.9% from Morgan respondent-allocated.
Other polls:
• Essential Research has primary votes unchanged on last week, at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has resulted in an increase in the Coalition’s two-party lead from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on power prices, with 37% thinking power companies most responsible against 28% for the federal government and 23% for state governments; price increases under the carbon tax, which 52% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 36% say they haven’t; and the various aspects of the Houston report recommendations, which find very strong support for limiting the ways boat arrivals can bring their families to Australia, opinion divided on increasing the humanitarian program and strong opposition to the Malaysia solution, but strong approval for implementing them all as per the new government policy.
• Channel Nine in Brisbane tonight reported results of a statewide ReachTEL automated phone poll of over 1000 respondents, which showed the LNP on 42.2% (compared with 49.6% at the election), Labor on 31.6% (26.7%), Katter’s Australian Party on 9.6% (11.5%) and the Greens on 9.2% (7.5%), for an LNP lead of 56-44 (62.8-37.2) on two-party preferred. Daniel Hurst of Fairfax has more results from the poll, including the finding that Campbell Newman’s disapproval rating (42%) has nearly shaded his approval (44%). This adds to the impression from Morgan polling (see below) and last fortnight’s ReachTEL Ashgrove poll of a solid shift away from the LNP over recent months, albeit nowhere near enough to threaten their lead.
• Morgan has published a headache-inducing release on state voting intention which details results from various small-sample phone polls conducted over the past two months. Last week they polled between 319 and 343 respondents in each of the four biggest states; a month ago they polled 648 respondents nationally for a poll on “the most important public problems facing Australia”, from which tiny state-level sub-samples have been derived for comparing the latest results with. Every individual set of results is from too small a sample to be of much use, but you can see them all here if you’re interested. They can at least be used to derive combined July-August results for New South Wales and Victoria from passable samples of just below 500 and margins of error of around 4.5%. For New South Wales, the results are Coalition 54%, Labor 25% and Greens 10%, with the Coalition leading 61-39 on two-party preferred; for Victoria, Coalition 45%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%, with the Coalition leading 51-49. In each case Labor and the Greens get similar results to the previous elections, but the Coalition are three points higher on the primary vote in New South Wales and four points lower in Victoria.
• Jamie Walker of The Australian reports research conducted for Labor by UMR Research in March found Clive Palmer was viewed favourably by 26% of men and 16% of women, and unfavourably by 35% of men and 22% of women. Forty-two per cent of women and 26% men said they had never heard of him.
Preselections:
• Barnaby Joyce said last week he would “definitely” run for preselection in the outback Queensland seat of Maranoa if its 68-year-old incumbent, Bruce Scott, decided not to seek another term. Should Scott remain intransigent, he will “seek the counsel of party people in the electorate”.
• The NSW Nationals have confirmed state independent Richard Torbay as their candidate to take on Tony Windsor in New England.
• Fairfax reports Jane Prentice, the LNP member for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, faces preselection challenges from Jonathon Flegg, son of state government minister and former Liberal leader Bruce Flegg, and pharmacist John Caris.
• The ABC reports that Michael Burr withdrew as Liberal candidate for the northern Tasmanian marginal seat of Braddon last month, a fact which escaped by notice when I compiled my “seat of the week” entry a fortnight later. The front-runner to replace him would appear to be Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat in Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010. Former Senator Guy Barnett says he was approached to fill the vacancy, but is instead focusing on entering state politics. The two unsuccessful candidate for the original preselection, veterans advocate Jacqui Lambie and Poppy Growers Tasmania president Glynn Williams, have indicated they might try again.
• Barry Kennedy of the Sunbury Leader reports Sunbury businessman Ben Collier and two other candidates will contest Liberal preselection for McEwen on the weekend. Rob Mitchell gained the seat for Labor at the 2010 election and scored a free-kick at the redistribution to take effect at the next election, which adds Labor-voting Sunbury to the seat and boosts his margin from 5.3% to 9.2%.
• Warring factions in the NSW Liberal Party are reportedly negotiating a compromise after a “hard Right” push to entrench preselection plebiscites led to fears numerous sitting MPs would be targeted with branch-stacking. Together with a raft of state MPs, Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reported those affected might include Philip Ruddock in Berowra, Scott Morrison in Cook, Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar and Alex Hawke in Mitchell. Heath Aston of the Sun-Herald reports the compromise would likely involve sitting members being protected, branch members required to be members for two years before being entitled to a plebiscite vote, limitations on state executive’s power to impose candidates and, in a concession from the hard Right, a requirement for direct attendance at elections for state executive positions to guard against postal vote rorting. At the root of the dispute is the decision by state executive, which is dominated moderates and the centre Right, to impose centre Right candidate Lucy Wicks in the seat of Robertson.
• Shannon Tonkin of the Illawarra Mercury reports John Rumble, a Wollongong nurse and son of former local state MP Terry Rumble, will challenge incumbent Stephen Jones for Labor preselection in Throsby. It had been widely reported that the Right was gathering strength in local branches in preparation for a push by Mark Hay, son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, but he announced earlier this month that he would instead pursue work commitments with the Royal Australian Navy.
[Labor can and will campaign strongly on their record. They’ll campaign on the economy, on health, on education, on infrastructure (particularly the NBN), they’ll campaign on all of the things they’ve put in place…]
I hope the ALP campaigning will see Abbott (if he is leader come the election) again accuse Labor of waging Class Warfare. If he doesn’t say it then Labor should goad him into saying it. That to me is a big winner especially when Reinhart and Palmer make such massive targets… literally.
[What would Thaddeus say?]
“This will surely affect my inheritance! Nyahhh!”
[It is becoming the ALP’s to win.]
Yes, I’m a glass half full man as well
Spur,
Thanks. I like your comments too!
Tom
Or you could say the glass is 47% full.
I fear that too many voters have wanted Gillard gone for too long that they just won’t support Labor at the ballot box if Gillard is leader.
The vote based on who they want to be leader in 3 years time. When 60% of voters disprove of the PM, how do you expect to get at least 50% to vote for you?
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/sports/soccer/soccer-team-of-post-soviet-transnistria-dominates-moldovan-league.html?_r=1
Ok if you’re tired of polls, try this for a bit of light reading…
[In Sliver of Old U.S.S.R., Hot Soccer Team Is Virtual State Secret
By JAMES MONTAGUE
Published: August 19, 2012
TIRASPOL, Moldova — It is a soccer club that few have heard of, from a corner of the former Soviet empire even fewer could easily locate: F.C. Sheriff Tiraspol, champions of Transnistria. The club was started by a former K.G.B. agent, and it plays in a place where smuggling is rampant and statues of Lenin still stand revered.
Its fans are a bawdy, often violent bunch. Its officials treat basic details of the club’s operations — even the recent successes that have brought it to the verge of joining Europe’s soccer elite — like classified material. ]
[I hope the ALP campaigning will see Abbott (if he is leader come the election) again accuse Labor of waging Class Warfare. If he doesn’t say it then Labor should goad him into saying it. That to me is a big winner especially when Reinhart and Palmer make such massive targets… literally.]
I have no doubt that Swan will be very keen for that battle.
[there does seem to be a material improvement in the Labor primary vote and perhaps a fair amount of that is coming from QLD]
Just wait till budget day in Queensland. Newman might piss off another bunch of voters who turn off the LNP and decide to come back home.
Just had a rough look at the distribution for PM netsat and it’s quite odd looking, more or less flat-topped between -29 and +19. It drops off sharply from around -35 but on the other side from +30, but that difference is largely caused by Gillard’s large collection of -30 to -34s.
[When 60% of voters disprove of the PM, how do you expect to get at least 50% to vote for you?]
By getting 51% of voters to disapprove of giving the Opposition Leader the chance to prove he’d be worse.
zoomster @ 120
[A slow trend is good; it indicates people changing their minds as the result of a series of factors, rather than a one off event – which can be easily countered by another one off.]
Any return of support to Gillard Labor is going to begrudging and hard earned. But precisely because of that it is probably going to be fairly firm – once they come over they are unlikely to go back easily.
I suspect some of the resistance to movement in the polls (pre August) is that the electorate are feeling a little foolish at been sucked in by the brutal Abbott Propaganda Lie-Fest, and are unwilling to admit it, even anonymously to a phone pollster.
Just Me (141) – The justification for saying it is Tone to lose, this Government has been under great pressure for a while and has at times being very divided in ways that I cannot remember at any stage during Howard or Hawke/Keating
To introduce a carbon price at a time that we have an opposition that is flatly opposed was always going to be a hard sell.
Combine that with the whole Gillard / Rudd story and the Government was always going to be under real polling pressure.
Like any Government, it has made a few errors but that usually happens when you are an active Government.
Tone has built up a large core base of people that are angry about one thing or another but the Government improves it performance and in recent months it has improved, Gillard and her team have been more assertive.
The only big danger that I can see ahead is how will it explain not having a surplus for I just don’t see it happening, of course if it does I will be the first to congratulate Wayne Swan.
I think the next poll is looking like a re-run of the 1990 election, and while one wants to win every election, I suspect to lose it will hurt the Liberals more, due to the at times massive lead they had built up.
[I’d be very, very, very careful suggesting Ian Temby is anything other than straight.]
Happy to suspect any judge or QC, after all a highly respected judge went to jail over a lousy traffic fine , due to perjury.
Judges are human as are other officers of the court , like lawyers,barristers qc even suspect SC ,and at present find all appointed by liberals at least open to question.
About Temby
The interim report dated 26 April 2012, page 3, at 1.3, states –
[The resolution of Union Council referred to allegations in the media against the General Secretary, Michael Williamson. It is allegations against Williamson, not other people, which form the basis of the inquiry into the corporate governance and controls of HSUEast.]
http://www.scribd.com/doc/91795058/Interim-Report-26-April-2012
This was all discussed when the report was made public, so why is there now some sort of uproar about the inquiry only looking at Williamson? That was all the independent, expert panel was asked to do.
[When 60% of voters disprove of the PM, how do you expect to get at least 50% to vote for you?]
By changing your name to Keating.
Keating disapproval ratings for early 1993: 57, 63, 62, 61, 60, 61, 59, and then he won the election. Hewson, while not popular, was flogging him on netsat at the time.
Horses for courses
The Seat of Power@TheSeatofPower
NEWS FLASH:- Coalition Cheerleading Newspaper now OFFICIALLY calls the Liberal Party “STAGNANT” See Here –> http://tinyurl.com/8l6af2b #auspol
Go Julia
This Poll will ensure that there will be no move against JG until the election. You beauty.
Essential the Labor/union progressive poll of course is moving completely in the other direction and with a bigger sample even better.
I look forward to Nelsen next week although I suspect things may not be so serendipidous for or dear leader as with Mr O Shaunessy.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/hsus-whistleblower-at-the-centre-of-the-craig-thomson-scandal-named-in-complaint/story-e6freuy9-1226454456943
[HSU’s whistleblower at the centre of the Craig Thomson scandal named in complaint
Simon Benson The Daily Telegraph August 21, 2012 12:00AM
THE whistleblower at the centre of the Craig Thomson union scandal has been referred to police in an official complaint over mysterious payments that included wages paid to the sons of her partner, a Fair Work Australia official.
Kathy Jackson, the former union boss turned informant, was the subject of a formal police complaint lodged just days before the HSU was put into administration in June.]
Can’t see how this affects any Thomson investigation actually, think they just wanted to keep mentioning him.
[By changing your name to Keating.
Keating disapproval ratings for early 1993: 57, 63, 62, 61, 60, 61, 59, and then he won the election. Hewson, while not popular, was flogging him on netsat at the time.]
Keating wasn’t popular, but he was respected.
And Hewson was proposing enormous change, whereas Abbott is proposing bugger all, and what he is proposing makes no sense at all.
Kevin Bonham
Paul Keating however was a once in a lifetime political talent
LABOR is slowly regaining some confidence among voters, who don’t rate Tony Abbott any higher than Julia Gillard as preferred leader.
The latest Newspoll, published in
The Australian
, shows Labor’s primary vote up two points to 35 per cent, building on the five-point gain posted a fortnight ago.
The Coalition’s support was unchanged at 45 per cent, while the Greens edged up one point to 11 per cent.
In two-party terms, Labor improved slightly but the Coalition still held an election-winning 53-47 per cent lead – much less, however, than the crushing 18 points it enjoyed in April.
On the question of who would be the better PM, Mr Abbott and Ms Gillard were tied at 38 per cent
There would be a lot silence if this happened.
[ONE of Labor’s most strident media reform advocates has called for journalists and media outlets to be fined or temporarily banned from publishing for inaccurate or misleading reporting.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/convergence-review/fine-journalists-for-misleading-reporting-says-labor-mp-steve-gibbons/story-fndfo21g-1226454067373
http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/hsus-whistleblower-at-the-centre-of-the-craig-thomson-scandal-named-in-complaint/story-e6freuy9-1226454456943?reg=1
Maybe the worm has turned
[There would be a lot silence if this happened.]
Why don’t we just reform libel laws instead?
Have a national system instead of the different states having different rules, which makes no sense in the internet age.
Oh, we should also have a broad (but not absolute) explicit free speech clause added to the constitution.
Lot of us have said it was a worm
THE whistleblower at the centre of the Craig Thomson union scandal has been referred to police in an official complaint over mysterious payments that included wages paid to the sons of her partner, a Fair Work Australia official.
Kathy Jackson, the former union boss turned informant, was the subject of a formal police complaint lodged just days before the HSU was put into administration in June.
A dossier of allegedly unexplained payments totalling more than $150,000 and relating to Ms Jackson’s former HSU branch has been handed to the Victoria Police unit investigating Mr Thomson for allegedly using the union’s funds for escort services – a claim he denies.
The separate claims relating to Ms Jackson include wages paid by the union to the children of Ms Jackson’s partner, the vice-president of Fair Work Australia, Michael Lawler. The document claimed the wages had not been disclosed as related party transactions – as required.
ShowsOn,
[Why don’t we just reform libel laws instead?
Have a national system instead of the different states having different rules, which makes no sense in the internet age.]
Australia has had uniform defamation (= slander + libel) laws since 2006.
Abbotts hero being investigated by police, perhaps abbott needs to give honest answers.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/hsus-whistleblower-at-the-centre-of-the-craig-thomson-scandal-named-in-complaint/story-e6freuy9-1226454456943
[Australia has had uniform defamation (= slander + libel) laws since 2006.]
Ah OK, but maybe they should be broader?
And more accessible without needing a QC to do your bidding for you?
This is a classic. I’m not sure I have ever seen it before.
McCaskill, who is going for the Missouri Senate seat against the Repug cretin who talked about “legitimate rape” victims not getting pregnant, is telling the Republicans not to dump him as it would invalidate the votes of the dimwits who voted for him in the Repug primary and would be too radical.
She was behind in the polls before it happened.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/20/claire-mccaskill-todd-akin-legitimate-rape_n_1810351.html
Craig Thomson, who is at the centre of the union scandal. Source: The Daily Telegraph
THE whistleblower at the centre of the Craig Thomson union scandal has been referred to police in an official complaint over mysterious payments that included wages paid to the sons of her partner, a Fair Work Australia official.
Kathy Jackson, the former union boss turned informant, was the subject of a formal police complaint lodged just days before the HSU was put into administration in June.
A dossier of allegedly unexplained payments totalling more than $150,000 and relating to Ms Jackson’s former HSU branch has been handed to the Victoria Police unit investigating Mr Thomson for allegedly using the union’s funds for escort services – a claim he denies.
The separate claims relating to Ms Jackson include wages paid by the union to the children of Ms Jackson’s partner, the vice-president of Fair Work Australia, Michael Lawler. The document claimed the wages had not been disclosed as related party transactions – as required.
There was also $58,000 in allegedly unaccounted for EFT payments to Ms Jackson’s former husband and HSU official Jeff Jackson.
Police have also been asked to investigate $36,774 in payments from the union to a consultancy company which lists Ms Jackson as a director.
The Daily Telegraph has obtained a copy of a formal letter of complaint lodged with Victoria Police Commissioner Ken Lay on May 22 – and referred to investigators. The letter was signed by then HSU East acting secretary Peter Mylan, who was brought in to replace its former secretary Michael Williamson – the subject of a separate NSW police investigation into alleged fraud at the union, which is also denied.
Sources confirmed Victorian Police are expected to broaden their investigation into Mr Thomson to include the claims against Ms Jackson.
Ms Jackson yesterday appeared unaware a formal complaint had been lodged and said police had not contacted her: “They haven’t spoken to me. If (anyone) has any allegations against me they should refer them to the proper authorities. Good luck to them.”
Documents relating to alleged payment of childcare fees for Ms Jackson’s son, the disappearance of several computers, $12,500 in postage and shipping reimbursement to Ms Jackson and a $22,000 payment to a Hong Kong woman were also included in documents referred to police
Schnappi,
[…perhaps abbott needs to give honest answers.]
Abbott gives the answers that he thinks his audience of the moment will like best.
As he “confessed” to Kerry O’Brien on 17 May 2010:
[I know politicians are gonna be judged on everything they say, but sometimes, in the heat of discussion, you go a little bit further than you would if it was an absolutely calm, considered, prepared, scripted remark, which is one of the reasons why the statements that need to be taken absolutely as gospel truth is those carefully prepared scripted remarks.]
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2010/s2901996.htm
[This is a classic. I’m not sure I have ever seen it before.]
What that idiot said yesterday could quite possibly cost the Republicans control of the Senate.
He has basically disqualified himself, so it is no wonder McCaskill doesn’t want him replaced.
Nate Silver on 538 estimates that this will result in about a 10% turn around in the polls. McCaskill was on average behind by 5% in the last half a dozen polls.
I like the ship analogy earlier. It is a big ship of oil tanker or QE2 class. It takes time to turn.
[The separate claims relating to Ms Jackson include wages paid by the union to the children of Ms Jackson’s partner, the vice-president of Fair Work Australia, Michael Lawler. The document claimed the wages had not been disclosed as related party transactions – as required.
There was also $58,000 in allegedly unaccounted for EFT payments to Ms Jackson’s former husband and HSU official Jeff Jackson.
Police have also been asked to investigate $36,774 in payments from the union to a consultancy company which lists Ms Jackson as a director.]
I guess Abbott will argue that this stuff happened so long ago that people should simply move on from it. Now of course that Gillard woman and her time at S&G is another matter altogether. 😉
Abbott & Co can distance themselves pretty easily from Kathy Jackson, no problem. It just blunts any further attempt to revive attacks on Thommo.
However if Lawler is dragged in some more, that can reflect on Abbott at least a bit.
The big difference is the daily terror is reporting IA stories around for months, at a time when the PM has increased in the poll
After oz 17 year crap, dt reports jacksons.allegatins,seems worm has turned on abbott.
Tom Hawkins @ 153
[Yes, I’m a glass half full man as well.]
I am notoriously a glass 3/4 empty type.
But there is no way that the Abbott Coalition can sustain this poisonous crap for another 12 months, it is already starting to seriously unravel.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/domestic-violence-services-in-crisis-20120820-24it5.html
[Domestic violence services in crisis
August 21, 2012
Reid Sexton
VICTORIA’S domestic violence agencies are facing a crisis as cash-strapped services struggle to cope with a surge in cases, leaving women more exposed to violent situations.
The state’s leading agencies told The Age a massive shortfall in funding meant the most vulnerable women were not receiving support to move away from abusive relationships, and staff were facing burn-out.]
bad news
I can’t even work out how he came up with the comment. Ignoring the legitimate part, he seems to be saying that if you are raped you can’t get pregnant for some medical reason. Where he came up with sh!t like that is beyond me.
Dio,
That’s what happens when pollies ignore the science!
ShowsOn,
[Ah OK, but maybe they should be broader?
And more accessible without needing a QC to do your bidding for you?]
It’s a bit late at night for me to give your first proposition the careful consideration that it deserves, but on the whole I’d say that they are broad enough, given that defamation is effectively a personal matter. However, I think that there is a strong case to be made for a “truth in media” law that goes beyond the wronging of an individual (or small group).
As to your second proposition, most definitely – but then I think that that should be true of all aspects of the law, which as presently structured is beyond the means of all but the richest (people and corporations) and poorest (people) in Australia.
I know that Shellbell, Marrickville Mauler, CTar1 and a whole heap of other PBers can (and I hope will) correct me – or maybe even support me and expand on my patchy reasoning.
Meanwhile, I should run away and hide…
ShowsOn @ 145
[Let’s see how Abbott deals with the pressure if the polls are tied.]
Love to. Just not quite yet. About February.
In the meantime Labor should just keep slowly piling up the pressure.
How to lose the US Jewish Lobby vote.
@washingtonpost: Report: 30 House Republicans reprimanded for drinking, skinny dipping in Israel’s Sea of Galilee http://t.co/0nyqqKbo
Ah fiona , if ya gonna hide always make sure the cupboard is not bare
Ah fiona , if ya gonna hide always make sure the cupboard is not bare
My cupboard is appropriately provisioned, Schnappi – and I checked it out for cockroaches and mozzies first 😉
Night, all.
Finns
This will make the smile on your dial larger.
@BreakingNews: Facebook slides to all-time low of $18.75, less than half the initial public offering price – @AP
[I can’t even work out how he came up with the comment. Ignoring the legitimate part, he seems to be saying that if you are raped you can’t get pregnant for some medical reason. Where he came up with sh!t like that is beyond me.]
It is standard rhetoric in the pro-life movement that when if a woman is raped her body will naturally reject any fertilised egg from implanting.
It is pure bunkum, but it is the kind of thing they like to delude themselves with so they don’t have to think carefully about their dogmatic opposition to abortion.
The US Senate may boil down to who is Vice President in the end, as it’s looking like a close one with a more or less 50-50 (Dems including independents Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who will probably support the Dems.) May be a tricky time in the White House. However, the VP will be more important as he may be required to break quite a few ties over the next two years.