Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

James J relates that Newspoll has Labor up further on a surprisingly strong result a fortnight ago: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is down from 54-46 to 53-47, and the primary votes are 35% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (steady) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Labor was last this high on two-party preferred in March, and on primaries when Labor enjoyed a brief spike in the days before Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge. Despite this, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have weakened still further, her approval down two points to 27% and disapproval up one to 60%, while Tony Abbott continues what seems to be a steady upward trend over recent months: his approval is up two to 34% and his disapproval is down two to 54%. And on another counter-intuitive note, the latest poll nonetheless has Julia Gillard drawing level on preferred prime minister at 38% apiece, compared with a 38-36 lead for Abbott last time.

UPDATE: Morgan’s face-to-face poll covering the last two weekends also gives Labor it’s best result since March: their primary vote is up 2.5% to 34.5%, although the Coalition is also up half a point to 44%, with the Greens down 1.5% to 10%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is down from 56-44 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 to 53-47 on previous election preferences.

Newspoll having turned in results which look relatively kind to Labor twice in a row, I thought now might be a good time to review the recent performance of the pollsters relative to each other. I have done this by calculating averaged quarterly results for each regularly reporting pollster going back to the start of 2009 (with separate results included for the respondent-allocated and previous-election figures from Morgan’s face-to-face polls). The first chart shows the progress over that time of Labor’s two-party vote.

This shows an impressive consistency of trends once weekly/fortnightly/monthly fluctuations are ironed out. The closest we get to an aberration is the April-June 2009 result from Nielsen, which conducted only one poll in that period. A clearer indication of pollsters’ “house biases” can be provided if we convert the results into deviations from the average of the four pollsters (using the previous election measure for Morgan for the sake of consistency).

This indeed shows that Newspoll has lately been more generous to Labor than at any other point in the time covered, but the difference with Essential Research is still fairly modest. Nielsen, it would seem, has reliably been a point or two worse for Labor than Newspoll over the entire period. Essential favoured Labor in the early days of operation, apparently due to methodological teething problems, but has closely matched Newspoll throughout the current parliamentary term. It is true that a gap has opened in the two most recent observations, but I would want to see this continued over a longer time frame before reading much into it.

The widely recognised lean to Labor in Morgan-face-to-face polls is shown up fairly clearly on the respondent-allocated result, although the other pollsters “caught up” with it at the peak of the Rudd honeymoon. As I’ve probably said about a million times now, the gap which opened up between respondent-allocated and previous-election two-party results in early 2011 is an inexplicable quirk of Morgan’s. The respondent-allocated results produced by Nielsen show no such pattern, and if I had gone to the bother of including separate measures, it would have hugged the previous-election line as closely as Morgan’s did over the first half of the chart.

Taken together, the average two-party results for Labor since the 2010 election have been 45.9% from Newspoll, 44.2% from Nielsen, 45.7% from Essential, 48.1% from Morgan previous-election, and 45.9% from Morgan respondent-allocated.

Other polls:

Essential Research has primary votes unchanged on last week, at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has resulted in an increase in the Coalition’s two-party lead from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on power prices, with 37% thinking power companies most responsible against 28% for the federal government and 23% for state governments; price increases under the carbon tax, which 52% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 36% say they haven’t; and the various aspects of the Houston report recommendations, which find very strong support for limiting the ways boat arrivals can bring their families to Australia, opinion divided on increasing the humanitarian program and strong opposition to the Malaysia solution, but strong approval for implementing them all as per the new government policy.

• Channel Nine in Brisbane tonight reported results of a statewide ReachTEL automated phone poll of over 1000 respondents, which showed the LNP on 42.2% (compared with 49.6% at the election), Labor on 31.6% (26.7%), Katter’s Australian Party on 9.6% (11.5%) and the Greens on 9.2% (7.5%), for an LNP lead of 56-44 (62.8-37.2) on two-party preferred. Daniel Hurst of Fairfax has more results from the poll, including the finding that Campbell Newman’s disapproval rating (42%) has nearly shaded his approval (44%). This adds to the impression from Morgan polling (see below) and last fortnight’s ReachTEL Ashgrove poll of a solid shift away from the LNP over recent months, albeit nowhere near enough to threaten their lead.

• Morgan has published a headache-inducing release on state voting intention which details results from various small-sample phone polls conducted over the past two months. Last week they polled between 319 and 343 respondents in each of the four biggest states; a month ago they polled 648 respondents nationally for a poll on “the most important public problems facing Australia”, from which tiny state-level sub-samples have been derived for comparing the latest results with. Every individual set of results is from too small a sample to be of much use, but you can see them all here if you’re interested. They can at least be used to derive combined July-August results for New South Wales and Victoria from passable samples of just below 500 and margins of error of around 4.5%. For New South Wales, the results are Coalition 54%, Labor 25% and Greens 10%, with the Coalition leading 61-39 on two-party preferred; for Victoria, Coalition 45%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%, with the Coalition leading 51-49. In each case Labor and the Greens get similar results to the previous elections, but the Coalition are three points higher on the primary vote in New South Wales and four points lower in Victoria.

Jamie Walker of The Australian reports research conducted for Labor by UMR Research in March found Clive Palmer was viewed favourably by 26% of men and 16% of women, and unfavourably by 35% of men and 22% of women. Forty-two per cent of women and 26% men said they had never heard of him.


• Barnaby Joyce said last week he would “definitely” run for preselection in the outback Queensland seat of Maranoa if its 68-year-old incumbent, Bruce Scott, decided not to seek another term. Should Scott remain intransigent, he will “seek the counsel of party people in the electorate”.

• The NSW Nationals have confirmed state independent Richard Torbay as their candidate to take on Tony Windsor in New England.

Fairfax reports Jane Prentice, the LNP member for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, faces preselection challenges from Jonathon Flegg, son of state government minister and former Liberal leader Bruce Flegg, and pharmacist John Caris.

• The ABC reports that Michael Burr withdrew as Liberal candidate for the northern Tasmanian marginal seat of Braddon last month, a fact which escaped by notice when I compiled my “seat of the week” entry a fortnight later. The front-runner to replace him would appear to be Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat in Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010. Former Senator Guy Barnett says he was approached to fill the vacancy, but is instead focusing on entering state politics. The two unsuccessful candidate for the original preselection, veterans advocate Jacqui Lambie and Poppy Growers Tasmania president Glynn Williams, have indicated they might try again.

Barry Kennedy of the Sunbury Leader reports Sunbury businessman Ben Collier and two other candidates will contest Liberal preselection for McEwen on the weekend. Rob Mitchell gained the seat for Labor at the 2010 election and scored a free-kick at the redistribution to take effect at the next election, which adds Labor-voting Sunbury to the seat and boosts his margin from 5.3% to 9.2%.

• Warring factions in the NSW Liberal Party are reportedly negotiating a compromise after a “hard Right” push to entrench preselection plebiscites led to fears numerous sitting MPs would be targeted with branch-stacking. Together with a raft of state MPs, Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reported those affected might include Philip Ruddock in Berowra, Scott Morrison in Cook, Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar and Alex Hawke in Mitchell. Heath Aston of the Sun-Herald reports the compromise would likely involve sitting members being protected, branch members required to be members for two years before being entitled to a plebiscite vote, limitations on state executive’s power to impose candidates and, in a concession from the hard Right, a requirement for direct attendance at elections for state executive positions to guard against postal vote rorting. At the root of the dispute is the decision by state executive, which is dominated moderates and the centre Right, to impose centre Right candidate Lucy Wicks in the seat of Robertson.

Shannon Tonkin of the Illawarra Mercury reports John Rumble, a Wollongong nurse and son of former local state MP Terry Rumble, will challenge incumbent Stephen Jones for Labor preselection in Throsby. It had been widely reported that the Right was gathering strength in local branches in preparation for a push by Mark Hay, son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, but he announced earlier this month that he would instead pursue work commitments with the Royal Australian Navy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,425 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. The Wild Wild West had a number plate slogan that became a problem in short order “WA. Home of the Americas Cup” 😆

  2. [Space Kidette
    Posted Friday, August 24, 2012 at 2:59 pm | Permalink

    Craig James ‏@craigjamesOZ

    Reserve Bank Guv has suggested that economic nirvana has been achieved: trend economic growth and low inflation & unemployment! Be happy! ]

    I trust Finns is on the feed for his BISONs.

  3. Look you Southerners

    Bligh and labor fucked up by blaming the gfc as a excuse to sell of the ports /rail without engaging the public. They lied and where not forgiven. I personall thought AB did great during the floods but then the blame game started and it was all over. arrogant up themselves ministers did,nt help.

    Newman has every right to do what he is doing . He won huge. but he has gone nuts and you should all be happy. everyday a gift against workchoices and mad tony

  4. William
    [Kezza, if she keep talking bullshit about me, I will permanently ban you.]
    Well, let’t not get into third person stuff. If you want to ban me for falsely accusing you, then at least show where I have done that.

    [I do not allow women to be called “bitch”. Ever.]
    Yes, you do. There are multiple infractions on here. It’s just that you’re never round to calling them out, OR you don’t want to.

    [It is a dismal reflection on your maturity and integrity that you are determined to argue otherwise. I really don’t see why I should have to put up with this.]
    Actually, every day, I take into account your age. On the one hand I have to congratulate you for your forbearance, on the other hand, I take into account your youth.

    Let’s say, it’s a reflection on your youth that gives me heart.

  5. As I said,BK.

    And on similar matters, Poroti (and Just Me I think) will get back to you on Sinodinos.

    BK knows my opinion. I cannot imagine anything could change it.

  6. crikey whitey,

    People I know voted for Can Do, cited the asset sales of the reason. When I asked what assets were sold, the reason they chose the assets and what percentage of revenue did they generate they admitted they didn’t have a clue!

  7. Joe6pack

    [Look you Southerners]
    Oi ! To Territorians youse be a “bloody Southerner” 🙂 That said your analysis is not too far off the mark. Davai !!

  8. [Stuart Robert MP ‏@stuartrobertmp

    I just spoke about the history and future of Aust / Singapore bi-lateral Defence arrangements at the Singapore / Aust chamber of commerce

    4s Space Kidette Space Kidette ‏@SpaceKidette

    @stuartrobertmp Did you talk the Australian economy down like your illustrious leader does every time he opens his mouth? ]

  9. Bushfire Bill 4468

    Brilliant piece of writing. Now if that kind of writing was in the MSM I might be tempted to actually buy a newspaper

  10. Joe6pk,

    It was a perfect example of media giving people an opinion about things they really didn’t understand, didn’t care to take the time to understand and about things that didn’t really impact on their lives.

    They sucked up the emotion and took it on face value.

  11. Newman has every right to do what he is doing . He won huge.

    He lied about what he was going to do. He told public servant not to fear him and that Qld would need more public servants not more.

    Winning huge is not a blank cheque to sack people left right and centre.

    I doubt those already sacked and those waiting to be told they are sacked would agree that newman *has every right to do what he is doing*.

    They used the baseball bats on themselves and it may end up stalling the entire Qld economy.

  12. Mr Pajama Pudding at 5346

    “He reminds me of a younger version of Kelsey Grammer’s character on Boss (which is an excellent series if you overlook the gratuitious nudity/sex)”

    I am unfamiliar with this series. Should I find it, or not? Would I be amused?

    Or would it be lighter than the since unclothed real life megalomaniacs I was thinking of?

  13. Is Anna Bligh a descendant of Admiral Bligh? I used to know but I’ve forgotten.

    Joe6pack, the issue is not whether Newman has a right to sack public servants, the issue is what political impact that will have, in the short term on tomorrow’s NT election, and in the longer term on the Coalition’s chances in Qld at the federal election.

  14. swamprat @ 5350

    [ I also think Bligh should be made Governor of NSW now that she has moved there. Their second Governor Bligh!! A nice symmetry ]

    I seem to recall that she is actually a descendent of the Governor

  15. roaldan1000

    That is such good news – I endorse all the great comments, and wish your offspring (and you) every success.

    (sorry, everyone – catching up slowly after a v lonnnnnnnnnnng day – but also a v goooooooood one 🙂 )

  16. Kezza, as I made very clear to you yesterday, if there is an infraction here it is indeed because I didn’t see it, which is always a risk. Your assertions to the contrary are utterly false and stated without any basis for believing they might be true. The next comment of yours which makes this or any other baseless personal attack against another person – your characteristically disgraceful comments to Carey Moore yesterday being another case in point – will be your last.

  17. CO,

    When I worked at NSW Treasury in the bowels of records and old ledgers were the first accounts from the original governers written in their own hand just sitting there collecting dust and unloved.

    I read them cover to cover many a time. They covered not only the accounts for the colony but the legal matters, ship and passenger arrivals, arrests, and various issues facing them at the time.

    Those ledgers to me were priceless and I kept telling everyone they belonged in the State Library, but they were still at Treasury when I left.

  18. Space Kidette 5358

    Asset sales was the way I understood it, too, in general terms.

    But there it is, probing on the topic reveals the depth or otherwise of general undertstanding.

  19. Late Line. Emma’s back in the chair.

    OooooH! Is she going to interview :monkey: ????????????

    Surely, having done so well in the past couple of days he’d be itching for a convivial chat with Emma?? 🙂

  20. kezza2

    [Pity Jessica Wright spoiled her ‘interview for top job by LOTO’ FAIL piece by repeating the defamatory “trust fund” claim.

    You simply couldn’t progress your interrogation of the prime minister’s 50-minute press conference rebuttal of allegations about her work as a lawyer, her former-boyfriend-turned-short-order-cook and a union trust fund they’d both rather forget.

    Read more:

    Hope JG’s department is onto it quickly and another round of apologies is issued by Fairfax.

    It’s despairing enough that the “she didn’t open a file” keeps getting a run. JG did open a file, it’s physically there, it’s real, it’s material. What happened was it “wasn’t entered on the system.”]

    Yep, back in the day when I pretended to be a lawyer with one of the blue-blood firms, if you were doing stuff for a regular (especially corporate/association/(=, much as some laywers might hate to admit it – a union client) it was normal to have a “general” file (which was also on the firm’s financial books as “general”) where one would put (and “charge”) those one-off (plus) phone calls. If something developed into something more than a “general” bit of advice – especially if it was billable (i.e., disbursements and – with luck, payment for time) – you would open a specific file – and the charges that were relevant to that specific file would be transferred from the “general” file to the matter at hand.

    As someone once said, it isn’t rocket surgery.

  21. [Joe6pack
    Posted Friday, August 24, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink
    Space Kidette
    Assett sales was a huge reason throughout qld.

    Was never flagged and lied about]
    But, it was one reason why Labor was outed and one reason why you continually brought forward the reason I should eat my jammies.

    Munch munch mn.

  22. Psephos

    The LNP won huge and are now showing thier arrogance.But they do deserve to
    This can only bode well in the federal sense,
    ie. look what the state wankers are doing

  23. [But, it was one reason why Labor was outed and one reason why you continually brought forward the reason I should eat my jammies.

    Munch munch mn.]
    Keep going darling.I will stick up for you.
    Boo Bad Silly WA William

  24. I know this is a bit vindictive but having worked in Brisbane for both National and Labor Governments (stupidly) for 16 years, I will say I have never been in an environment that has more contempt for ideas, that has more contempt for real discussion.

    I think Brisbane is the ugliest capital city in Australia, with no urban pride, almost no inner city parks, no bikeways, anti-pedestrian design, very bad public transport and a burning desire to expunge all of its limited heritage.appalling.

    The aim of Brisbane Council and the State Government is still 1960’s: to build a city fit for cars.

    My vindictive wish: so glad they elected Newman – he will be the new Joh of Qld.

  25. William
    [The next comment of yours which makes this or any other baseless personal attack against another person – your characteristically disgraceful comments to Carey Moore yesterday being another case in point – will be your last.]
    I thought you would have realised by now that my “characteristic comments” always have an element of ‘truth’ – that’s how we, the press, have always gotten away with it. Take a look at your fellows in this regard.

    From one fellow journo cum publisher to another, I will take it as a distinct lack of freedom of the press, if you ban me.

  26. leone @ 5081,

    [Bludgers wanting to leap into bed with Julia Gillard, (with or without a glass of shiraz) someone ogling Mark ‘Cute as a Bunny’ Butler, someone else lusting after Scott Ludlum. What have you lot been doing while I was out?]

    Welllll, my excuse is that I’m trying to catch up … faintly pursuing (and probably won’t make it – oops, sorry – catch up – by bed time.

    What’s yours?

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