Essential Research: 57-43 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research survey has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred, their lead now at 57-43, with both major parties steady on the primary vote (49% for the Coalition and 31% for Labor) and the Greens down one to 10%. The poll also includes Essential’s monthly leader approval ratings, which have Tony Abbott gaining three points on approval to 35% and down one on disapproval to 53%, with Julia Gillard steady on approval at 32% and up two on disapproval to 58%. Abbott has also nudged ahead on preferred prime minister, gaining from 37-37 to 38-37.

Further questions find broad hostility to the Greens, whose “performance in federal parliament” is rated as good by 17% and poor by 47%, with 53% rating their policies “too extreme” and 26% “representing the views of many voters”. There are two questions on Julian Assange which seem to suggest sympathy for him has declined since March: 28% now believe the support he has received from the government has been appropriate, compared with 22% in March, while those who think otherwise (though this could potentially include those who think it has provided too much support) is down from 36% to 33%.

Preselection stuff:

• The WA Liberals have confirmed the preselection of Christian Porter in Pearce, ahead of 24-year-old trademark lawyer Alex Butterworth and local party members Rod Henderson and Bill Crabtree. Gary Adshead of The West Australian reports the winning margin was 39 to 15, which I take to refer to Porter’s and Butterworth’s totals in the first and final round. UPDATE: The Australian reports Porter and Butterworth were the only two candidates, another two who had been mentioned having withdrawn.

• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports a field of nine candidates has nominated for the LNP preselection for Fisher on July 29: “Stephen Ainscough, Mr Brough, Richard Bruinsma, James McGrath, Graeme Mickelberg, Alan Nielsen, Daniel Purdie, Peta Simpson and Andrew Wallace”.

• The Nationals have preselected Matthew Fraser, owner of two Hungry Jacks stores in the Tweed Heads are, as their candidate for the north coast NSW seat of Richmond. Fraser won a preselection vote over Alan Hunter, a Myocum beef farmer and the candidate in 2010, Scott Cooper, a university lecturer, and John McMahon, a Tweed Heads newsagency owner.

• The Cessnock Advertiser reports the Nationals have preselected Michael Johnsen, Scone businessman and former mayor of Upper Hunter, to run against Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter (margin 12.5%). Johnsen also ran in the seat in 1996 and 2010.

• Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports five union leaders have publicly endorsed Stephen Jones, Labor’s member for Throsby, as Right forces led by state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay marshall forces for a preselection challenge. The unions concerned include the Right faction Australian Workers Union, together with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, Australian Services Union, Maritime Union of Australia and United Services Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,483 comments on “Essential Research: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. BB

    Good summary. But you omit those within the party pushing For change as well. They have been playing their part all along.

  2. meher baba @ 5274

    bemused. The Ministers would have to resign, not out of pride, but because it would be untenable for them to be in Rudd’s ministry after what they have said. This applies to Roxon, Swan, Burke and possibly (but probably not) Wong. I think Crean could stay. Gillard could also tenable remain a Minister if she wants to.

    A spill of the entire Ministry would be appropriate.
    Rudd could then show generosity of spirit by appointing most, if not all, of those same people to key Ministries, while at the same time re-shaping the ministry by including the likes of Andrew Leigh.
    He should be particularly generous to Ms Gillard.

  3. [I was searching in my mind for a couple of “senior journalists” who could pull on the reins and bring this nonsense to an end.]

    We don’t have any worth their salts anymore. It’s that simple.

  5. lizzie @ 5275

    bemused

    Even if said ministers stayed on, the ministry would revert to “I’m the boss” Rudd and he would struggle to achieve much in the short time ahead because he’d have to review everything.

    Is that your advice to him?
    I counsel him to ignore it.

  9. Champion’s piece is excellent today. I didn’t think he had it in him to spell out a policy agenda with a narrative. Of course most here will see it only in terms of the leadership, missing how he’s addressing a lot of the ALP’s problems

  10. Boerwar @ 5277

    I believe that the centre left is in for a decade in the wildnerness, gratis the Greens, and gratis an unreformed Labor Party.

    Defeatism which encourages passivity.
    Labor must be bold in government or opposition.
    It does need some reform internally and opposition should not be a precondition for getting on with this in a calm, measured way.
    Much of the Rudd/Gillard policy agenda has been fulfilled. Those items like the NDIS still in the pipeline need to be proceeded with and other policies developed to have an imaginative and exciting program to put to the electorate.

  13. The coaliton supporters are thriving on the rudd talk and labor supporters showing grief

    Its the labor supporters who should be talking about ,how news ltd is protecting their coaliton partner liberals over this slipper / ashby scenario

  14. Ah, for crying out bloody loud

    Manne and Carlton sobbing hysterically in their breakie over opinion polls.

    There was a time when opinion polls were worth something, but since the msm discovered opinion instead of news and analysis, the polls measure one thing and one thing only now – the influence the msm has over public opinion.

    As William Bowe himself so eloquently put it it way back in May 2007:

    [Tuesday, May 29, 2007 – 3:26 pm, by William Bowe

    With the scent of the government’s blood in the water, the nation’s newspapers have gone mad with opinion polling. For reasons unexplained, The Australian published Newspoll results last Tuesday (57-43), on Saturday (55-45) and today (60-40). The Fairfax papers yesterday conjured a front page story by adding together the last six months’ worth of ACNielsen polling.]
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/05/29/idle-speculation-annihilation-edition/#comments

  17. Having listened to Howse and the union movement on the news this morning, I have changed my position (that being preferring a third candidate, and Smith in particular, and suspecting that it wouldn’t do much good probably 4 or 5 seats positive as compared to Julia) to being anyone but Julia.

    One of Julia’s big problems was that she was seen as the tool and co-conspirator with the ‘faceless men’. Why did those same faceless men think coming out so strongly today would be a positive for Labor.

    I haven’t been a great believer in the constant ‘Rudd conspiracies’ we see here, but I’d almost be inclined to believe that all those moron union leaders coming out for Julia today is a Rudd masterstroke. I can imagine no other excuse for the madness.

    There was a great link yesterday to the night of Howse Knife and I must say there were a tonne of us who predicted how badly it would go, and by and large we have been right.

  21. BB 5290

    Thank you for putting those thoughts into words and a stark and welcome contrast to the quisling bemused and his various handwringing mates.

    Welcome back, kezza. 🙂

  22. Meguire Bob – how does the fact that Richo made a wrong prediction ( that wasn’t supported by the polling) have anything to do with what Steve Bracks has said?

    With regard to Cabinet positions – I thought Juan K Rudd said he would allow the factions to pick the Cabinet again.

  23. Meguire Bob – how does the fact that Richo made a wrong prediction ( that wasn’t supported by the polling) have anything to do with what Steve Bracks has said?

    With regard to Cabinet positions – I thought Juan K Rudd said he would allow the factions to pick the Cabinet again.

  24. hi vic

    been away helping some rellies
    had to take a break from same old same old
    was making me too angry

    But I see nothing’s changed here!

    Yeah, another earthquake last night.
    There was a little bit of a rumble during the afternoon and then a short sharp growling, shaking round 7pm – but nothing like a month earlier thankfully.

    I see Judd’s been suspended. Norty.

  27. WWP,

    Yeah, it’s a disaster!

    350 pieces of Legislation passed including a price on carbon, the Mining Tax, National Disability Legislation, Aged Care Reform, plain packaging of cigarettes, paid parental leave etc. It’s even worse when you look at the economy of low inflation, a balanced budget, low unemployment and strong growth.

    Life is one big misery!

  28. victoria
    Posted Saturday, July 21, 2012 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    MB

    I am waiting to see what happens on Monday. The msm are not bloody interested now. Of course, we know why

    Victoria i agree,

  29. Does anyone have an sports trivia questions that I can put in my quiz? I’m not very good with sports, except for cricket and sort of AFL.

  31. zimmerman @ 5311

    “He should be particularly generous to Ms Gillard.”
    perhaps Minister for Immigration and Border Protection!

    I was not being frivolous.

  32. kezza2

    Trust all is well with you and the rellies.

    Unfortunately, it is the same old around here.

    I did not feel the tremor, but my daughter did. As you say, nothing like last time.

    I barrack for Carlton, and their season has gone from bad to worse. Think i will focus on my next best team who are doing quite well. GO HAWKS!! 🙂

  33. Meguire Bob @ 5313

    The coaliton supporters are thriving on the rudd talk and labor supporters showing grief

    WRONG!
    Many Labor supporters are looking forward to a way out of the present dire predicament.

  34. [I am waiting to see what happens on Monday. The msm are not bloody interested now. Of course, we know why ]

    It’s Newspoll weekend, and so the destabilisation ramps up again.

    It’s so predictable.

  38. [I see Joe Hockey is advocating a great big new GST.]

    Mega blew the lid on Hockey’s black hole: $100b and climbing, seemingly every time he opens his mouth.

  40. [Ian @ 5299
    If Gillard goes…..evil wins
    It’s that easy.
    If you believe that you are truly a simpleton.]

    ‘Morning bemused.

    Good to see you back with all the civility you so admire.

  41. muttleymcgee @ 4304

    ‘Morning bemused.

    Good to see you back with all the civility you so admire.

    Hmmm a fairly mild rebuke.
    How are you keeping mutley?

  43. Hey, thanks guys for your thoughts and sorry if I worried you.

    Yeah, I was drowning in self-pity there for a while.
    I wasn’t just driving you lot crazy!
    and fortunately the computer died again.

    But it was good to get away and have an outward focus instead of becoming more and more reclusive.

    missed you all, but

    btw, using a laptop and am slow as a wet week with the silly mouse pad.

  44. I’m too angry to write anything sensible. Good on Bushfire Bill for having the presence of mind to do so.

    All I can say is that I am a proud member of The Australian Labor Party. I cannot be press-ganged into being a member of ‘Rudd Labor’. Therefore if Kevin Rudd returns to the leadership of the party I will be resigning from it forthwith. I want no truck with any party he leads.

    Julia Gillard is a political Colossus compared to that useless, megalmaniacal narcissist.

    And nothing that professional snark artist and representative of the Enemy Within, bemused, may say about my post, will change my point of view one iota.

  47. kezza2 @ 5343

    btw, using a laptop and am slow as a wet week with the silly mouse pad.

    Plug in a mouse.
    I hate those laptop devices too.

  48. Good morning all. The hamsters are still busy spinning that wheel.

    Great to see you back Kezza and know that all is well with you. Now, where is OzPol? She was suffering the dreaded lurgy so do hope all is well with her.

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