UPDATE (9/7): The latest weekly Essential Research poll has the two-party vote steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 31% for Labor (down a point for the second week in a row), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 11% for the Greens (up one). There are further questions in asylum seekers, of which the most illuminating is the findings that 60% believe the government is too soft, the carbon tax (31% say they have noticed an increase in costs, 54% say they haven’t) and the European economic crisis.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan has published poll results from its last two weekends of regular face-to-face surveying. This has both parties down on the previous fortnight, Labor by 3% to 29.5% and the Coalition 2.5% to 45.5%, with the Greens up 4.5% to 14.5%, their best result since February and equal best result ever. The Coalition’s two-party lead is down from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46 on previous election preferences, but up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences.
Before we proceed, two automated polls from ReachTEL which were published earlier in the week:
• A poll of 646 voters in Dobell points to a crushing victory for the Liberals, regardless of whether Craig Thomson remains as Labor candidate (which would not appear likely, as the party is proceeding with the preselection process while Thomson’s membership is suspended). Without Thomson, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Liberal 61%, Labor 30% and Greens 6%. With Thomson, the results are 64%, 21% and 13%. The former set of figures suggests a two-party split of about 64-36 and a swing against Labor of around 20%, which seems a bit much. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Labor sources have “confirmed the party hoped to finalise its candidate by the end of the year, which would make it impossible for Mr Thomson to clear the legal issues surrounding him in time to resume his party membership and nominate”.
• A 1051-sample poll of state voting intention in Queensland had the primary vote at 56.5% for the LNP, 21.8% for Labor, 9.4% for the Greens and 7.4% for Katter’s Australian Party. This compares with election results of 49.6%, 26.7%, 7.5% and 11.5%.
Now then.
Created when South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, Hindmarsh was traditionally a safe Labor seat covering Adelaide’s working class north-western suburbs. The creation of Port Adelaide as a separate electorate in 1949 made it somewhat less secure, pushing it southwards into more conservative Henley Beach, but only in 1966 was long-term Labor member Clyde Cameron seriously threatened. The watershed moment in its progress from safe Labor to marginal came in 1993, when the abolition of Hawker drew the election further south into Liberal-voting Glenelg. It currently extends along the coast from Glenelg South north to Semaphore Park, from which it extends inland to mostly Labor-voting suburbs south of Grange Road, from Kidman Park to Torrensville south to Morphettville and Ascot Park. The redistribution to take effect at the next election has effected two minor gains, both to Labor’s slight advantage: 3300 voters at Seaton in the north from Port Adelaide, and 1500 voters at Edwardstown in the south from Boothby. Labor’s notional margin is now 6.1%, compared with 5.7% at the election.
The Liberals’ first win in the seat followed the aforementioned redistribution at the 1993 election, at which a cut in the notional margin to 1.2% coincided with the retirement of sitting Labor’s John Scott, who had been the member since 1980. The Liberal candidate was Christine Gallus, who had become the first Liberal ever to win Hawker in 1990. She duly followed by becoming the first Liberal to win Hindmarsh, defeating future state government minister John Rau with a 2.8% swing. Party hard-heads rated Gallus’s vote-pulling power very highly, and they were duly dismayed when she decided to retire at the 2004 election. The Liberals were also damaged by a redistribution that added a northern coastal spur through Grange to Labor-voting Semaphore, which cut the margin from 1.9% to 1.1%.
It was thus widely expected that the seat would fall to Labor candidate Steve Georganas, a former taxi driver backed by the “soft Left” faction in a deal that saw the Right’s Kate Ellis take Adelaide. So it proved, but Georganas was given a run for his money by Liberal candidate Simon Birmingham, who limited the swing to 1.2% and came within 108 votes of victory (and went on to become a Senator in 2007). Georganas’s margins were increased by 5.0% and 0.7% at the elections of 2007 and 2010, which represented modest growth by the standards of other South Australians, such that the margin is now substantially lower than in three seats (Makin, Kingston and Wakefield) which Labor had been unable to win in 2004. This partly represented the party’s lack of mortgage-paying areas, and their attendant electoral volatility.
Nonetheless, Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reported in May that Liberal internal polling showed Hindmarsh to be the party’s most likely gain in South Australia. Their candidate is Matthew Williams, national business development manager with law firm Piper Alderman.
lizzie – funny, works fine for me. For example:
[fair international relations with other peoples and governments in accordance with the United Nations (UN) Charter and international law.]
Oooh, no, it’s the Trilateral Commission.
PB is quite right. The Labor Party badly needs root, stock and branch reform. This will not happen before the next election but the next election will likely trigger the reform. It will, IMHO, be bloody stuff.
The centre-left vote will never recover until the Red Greens One World Government Party are dead, gone and burried. This may take some time.
It might come as a bit of a shock to the Red Greens, but Australians just don’t want to be run by several billion other people.
If Labor is to return to a winnable position, they must do a number of things.
Stop Greens bashing. Sure, point out the differences and criticise but it must be remembered a lot of ex Labor voters have parked themselves with them.
Promote their great achievements. This requires a good communicator, and a trusted one. Clearly Gillard is not trusted (for reasons we all know), and because of that, anything she says is not listened to eventhough she is articulate, intelligent, and clever.
It’s not a matter of crying disloyalty or treachery or undermining Gillard. The simple fact of the matter is, on present polling indicators (and they have been consistent for a long time) many, many talented MPs will be ditched at the election.
Please, please, can’t we all agree that something has to be done, and we all know what that “something” is. This is not a time for emotional loyalty but hard headed decisions based on reality.
Labor preferencing the Greens Last
Effects on the House and Senate. Analysis below:
http://poliquant.com/labor-1-liberal-2-greens-3-the-house-effect/
http://poliquant.com/labor-1-liberal-2-greens-3-the-senate-effect/
Sorry Confessions just saw your post at 3146.
You do realise the Greens couldn’t have passed that crappy ETS anyway.
He should have gone to a DD.
[ Short of trucking big banners and loud speakers down suburban streets I don’t know how the ALP can get their message out. ]
The government must pay media companies *** million a year for advertising or they won’t even hear your message. I learned that watching The Gruen Transfer.
Mod Lib
The Kudelka link does not work.However if it was linked to this toon then Oh Yeah brother. One of the toons of the year.
This has the feel of Labor at the beginning of an implosion.
ML
[Boerwar
Posted Monday, July 9, 2012 at 9:06 pm | Permalink
One World Government? (Based on some evolution of the UN, I suppose.)
Any serious takers for this bit of la la land stuff?
Is this referring to the proposed Copenhagen agreement that never happened?
LOL :)]
Only a self-indulgent fellow traveller of a climate science-denying sociopath would find that even remotely funny. Get yourself a life. The planet is cooking.
‘they’ being the media companies
[The centre-left vote will never recover until the Red Greens One World Government Party are dead, gone and burried. This may take some time.]
Boer, do you actually believe this? Or are you just being ridiculous?
The centre-left vote will recover for Labor if and when they have some centre-left policies.
[This has the feel of Labor at the beginning of an implosion.]
Er, that was some time before the last election, wasn’t it?
[A crisis like children drowning …. or is that not a crisis?]
Apparently if you ask the liberals ‘they aren’t like us’ and if you ask a green they don’t count until they get onshore at which point we need to roll out the red carpet. I struggle to work out which stance is more disgusting.
Dr.Hewson wrote a wonderful article for the Drum sometime ago where he talked about the media’s belief that they are the king makers of Australian politics.
When the media says the voters are not listening it is code for, we are not listening.
Yep. The UN. This has had such wonderful countries as Libya, the under the dictatorial and murderous rule of a certain Colonel, chairing the UN Human Rights Committee.
Chairing! ffs!
[poroti
Posted Monday, July 9, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib
The Kudelka link does not work.However if it was linked to this toon then Oh Yeah brother. One of the toons of the year.
]
Thanks, yes that is the corker to which I was trying to link!
[Larissa Waters @larissawaters
So Qld Govt can’t afford to fund EDO to help ppl use laws, but can afford to challenge the mining tax to help Clive Palmer. #LNPishere]
feeney
Almost all the Greens voters would have been Labor voters with a few Dems and small l liberals.
Labor telling them that they are all wankers for voting for an extremist party doesn’t seem like the smartest strategy for getting them back.
[Er, that was some time before the last election, wasn’t it?]
i think its that segment of time when you see the wick stop burning, silence, then….
[The centre-left vote will recover for Labor if and when they have some centre-left policies.]
You’re deluded. Labor has an AS policy that the Greens think is inhumane but 61% of the population think it is too soft.
We’re tired of your endless shit. It’s time you went your own way.
Astrobleme:
The CPRS bill the Greens rejected had a start date of July 2010.
You’ve linked an article reporting AFTER the GReens turned their backs on pricing carbon emissions.
[We’re tired of your endless shit. It’s time you went your own way.]
Who is “you” in that sentence, Jakey boy?
[Labor telling them that they are all wankers for voting for an extremist party doesn’t seem like the smartest strategy for getting them back.]
*sigh*
We don’t want them back.
Confessions
The Greens couldn’t have passed that Bill.
Rudd chickened out is what happened.
It was a crappy ETS anyway – the current one has bigger CO2 cuts.
[Labor telling them that they are all wankers for voting for an extremist party doesn’t seem like the smartest strategy for getting them back.]
This whole thing has the air of a medium sized kid getting beaten up by a bigger kid and turning around and thumping a little kid.
[Who is “you” in that sentence, Jakey boy?]
You.
[You do realise the Greens couldn’t have passed that crappy ETS anyway.]
The ETS which is remarkably similar to the one we currently have?
Sure. The Greens were playing politics. Of course they were never going to ‘pass’ it.
‘Look’ I ‘juist’ wonder, ‘on another point’ how frustrated some of the Lib trollers who come on here must be –
STOP THE TROLLS!
(Three words, single syllable – all good)
[Boerwar
Posted Monday, July 9, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink
ML
Boerwar
Posted Monday, July 9, 2012 at 9:06 pm | Permalink
One World Government? (Based on some evolution of the UN, I suppose.)
Any serious takers for this bit of la la land stuff?
Is this referring to the proposed Copenhagen agreement that never happened?
LOL
Only a self-indulgent fellow traveller of a climate science-denying sociopath would find that even remotely funny. Get yourself a life. The planet is cooking.]
I think you are being a little unfair, the audience who would think that was funny is probably one or two more than “self-indulgent climate science-denying sociopaths”!!!!
[feeney
Almost all the Greens voters would have been Labor voters with a few Dems and small l liberals.
Labor telling them that they are all wankers for voting for an extremist party doesn’t seem like the smartest strategy for getting them back.]
I think Labor is trying to tell them that the greens aren’t quite the party the voters thought they are. And telling voters the otherside are useless and not worthy of a vote is hardly new, and swinging voters seem to swing which ever side is saying the other is silly. The greens like to pretend that special rules apply to them, but they don’t they are just another political party. A political party that in relation to climate change and drowning refugees has sided with the Liberals and not with Labor. The former labor voters might be just as angry with the as I am.
For the record while in the past I used to vote in the senate to give the greens higher preferences than the standard labor deal would give them I now intend to put them just after Family First.
It’s so funny watching the Labor supporters calling teh Greens Watermelons and Communists and the reason behind everything bad going on for Labor, but in the end it doesn’t matter what you say…
YOU NEED US.
Good night all.
[You’re deluded. Labor has an AS policy that the Greens think is inhumane but 61% of the population think it is too soft.]
And why do they think this policy, which deals with the tiny trickle of mostly genuine refugees coming to Australia, is “too soft”?
Because Labor has colluded with the racist Liberal Party to race to the bottom on this issue, and in so doing has failed to point out the truth (that we take very few refugees; that most people who apply for refugee status get it; that more illegal immigrants arrive by plane than boat; etc).
If you don’t want them back, you have to move further to the right which will obviously lead to the Greens getting more votes.
And on the right you will have to compete with Abbott and you lot will never be able to out-conservative him. You lot just aren’t that good at that kind of stuff.
Astro
Bigger CO2 cuts?
Given that it is designed to meet exactly the same targets as the original ETs, by exactly the same date, if that is true it’s because the later start date means that the cuts have to be harder to meet the deadline.
(….I’m being wary of overly emphatic statements at present, but I’m sure that’ll wear off… )
[The Greens couldn’t have passed that Bill.]
They passed legislation remarkably similar to Rudd’s scheme.
You also have to factor in the two years of polluting in the interim.
As a regular Greens in the Senate voter, I will never forgive the party for it turning its back on AGW. That the party has now turned its back on drowning AS simply underscores my view.
[I now intend to put them just after Family First]
I truly hope that somehow the next psychotic FF senator we get forces through some appalling law which directly affects you and yours.
Jake –
[You.]
I don’t know that I personally have that much clout anyway. I guess like your Labor right pals you’re raging against a false assumption in this case.
PB
[Boer, do you actually believe this? Or are you just being ridiculous?
The centre-left vote will recover for Labor if and when they have some centre-left policies.]
Well, I will add ‘ridiculous’ as a fresh term to the already quite lengthy list of pejoratives I have collected. Just the other day someone accused me of being ‘1945’. I have yet to figure that one out. Just as well I don’t take these personally, eh?
Of course I am serious about this. Do you really think that the Australian centre is going to support company tax @ 33%, a one world government. and one million asylum seekers every five years – or pick a number?
The Greens Party has absorbed a goodly proportion of the Labor Party left. But, the One World Government, wealth redistribution mob in the Greens Party are never going to capture the Australian centre. Never.
Rump Labor, minus most of its left, has swung to the right, naturally. The result is a fractured centre-left vote. The first past-the-post system and the preference bleed of a fractured centre-left vote gift government to the reacionaries.
I don’t accept various international policy setting comparisons for the simple reason that the Australian electorate is not the same as those with which international comparisons are made. It is much more conservative than most international electorates, whether we like it or not. I don’t. Tough titty for me, eh?
I have already said that I believe that the centre-left vote will not recover without Labor Party reform – serious reform not just tokenistic reform. I am hoping that a thorough slamming in the the next election will provide the trigger. If not, it will be decades of wandering around in the wildnerness looking for the promised land.
This overall situation is ridiculous, IMHO. But calling it that way is quite sane, IMHO.
[And why do they think this policy, which deals with the tiny trickle of mostly genuine refugees coming to Australia, is “too soft”?
Because Labor has colluded with the racist Liberal Party to race to the bottom on this issue, and in so doing has failed to point out the truth (that we take very few refugees; that most people who apply for refugee status get it; that more illegal immigrants arrive by plane than boat; etc).]
Too soft doesn’t mean racist and not soft enough. It’s meaningless blather like that which the ALP needs to distance itself from.
It’s time you went your own way.
Is that a white wet suit that la Trioli is wearing?
ML
[I think you are being a little unfair, the audience who would think that was funny is probably one or two more than “self-indulgent climate science-denying sociopaths”!!!!]
What is fair about a dolt who thinks that CO2 is weightless because some Tea Party spin lines about AGW were put into his mouth?
Labor not having Centre-Left policies?
How about thinking about it a bit more?
The changes to the taxation laws have made an enormous difference in taking away the rorts favouring the highest income earners that thrived under Howard. Whether it’s changes to superannuation deductions, or tax-free threshholds, it’s all far more left of centre than anything achieved for a long time.
I watched Abbott on Insiders yesterday. Plenty of nonsensical replies and some plainly wrong statements about taxation percentages, let through to the ‘keeper.
Never mind, facts no longer matter, it’s far more important to criticise political spin and then make a story out of ‘Deception Bay’.
[What is fair about a dolt who thinks that CO2 is weightless because some Tea Party spin lines about AGW were put into his mouth?]
That is perfectly fair.
You disagree with it, but it is perfectly fair.
Tumbrel belling the cat on Q&A
Nah, internal ALP positioning, fed by a media that is desperate for division and strife to try and hide the fact that their boy :monkey: is a nasty intellectual and policy void.
Probably got more to do with the NSW ALP conference politics than anything real.
I don’t think the Greens are as bad as some would portray them, watermelon wise, but they do as a group have a lot to learn about politics. Push cometh to the shove, they will always have more chance of influence with the ALP in Govt and will be righteously farked over under the Coalition. Remember, 75 – 80% of their supporters prefer the ALP to form a Govt over the Coalition so the worst they can do on their HTV’s is not direct preferences, rather than actually direct them to the Coalition.
Actually, the way Combet put it was best i think. ALP and Greens have different values. Fine, everyone lives with that and gets stuff done. Except the Fibs.
Ahhhh, Turnbull doing the Fiberal line of dysfunctional govt….much surprisement.
Trolli letting him make a speech on QANDA.
Is Patrick just another manifestation of Showson/GreenTard?
[a one world government]
Please show me this alleged policy. I really, really want you to show me where the Greens have a policy in favour of one world government. Because I assume you wouldn’t base your entire position on a lie or a misinterpreted throw away remark.
[I have already said that I believe that the centre-left vote will not recover without Labor Party reform – serious reform not just tokenistic reform. I am hoping that a thorough slamming in the the next election will provide the trigger. If not, it will be decades of wandering around in the wildnerness looking for the promised land.]
We agree about this.
The very same people launching this righteous jihad against the Greens are the ones who must be driven from the Labor Party.
I mean, this is a Party where this was apparently acceptable:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/wikileaks/labors-mark-arbib-defends-acting-as-a-labor-insider-for-the-us-embassy/story-fn775xjq-1225968085419
The pure cynicism in that kind of betrayal of country and party is just staggering.
I’m loving how fare team labor have changed direction 🙂
You guys are only one small step for man away from becoming global warming deniar’s. Good times…….
Hey Rummel, whats with your new avatar?
[rummel
Posted Monday, July 9, 2012 at 9:41 pm | Permalink
I’m loving how fare team labor have changed direction
You guys are only one small step for man away from becoming global warming deniar’s. Good times…….]
I think you missed that part of the flip-flop: it was early 2010 when Rudd adopted Gillard’s masterstroke tactic of saying the ALP would put everything on hold for 3 years!
Greatest moral challenge
Nothing
No Carbon tax
Carbon tax
LOL 🙂