Seat of the week: Hindmarsh

UPDATE (9/7): The latest weekly Essential Research poll has the two-party vote steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 31% for Labor (down a point for the second week in a row), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 11% for the Greens (up one). There are further questions in asylum seekers, of which the most illuminating is the findings that 60% believe the government is too soft, the carbon tax (31% say they have noticed an increase in costs, 54% say they haven’t) and the European economic crisis.

UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan has published poll results from its last two weekends of regular face-to-face surveying. This has both parties down on the previous fortnight, Labor by 3% to 29.5% and the Coalition 2.5% to 45.5%, with the Greens up 4.5% to 14.5%, their best result since February and equal best result ever. The Coalition’s two-party lead is down from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46 on previous election preferences, but up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences.

Before we proceed, two automated polls from ReachTEL which were published earlier in the week:

• A poll of 646 voters in Dobell points to a crushing victory for the Liberals, regardless of whether Craig Thomson remains as Labor candidate (which would not appear likely, as the party is proceeding with the preselection process while Thomson’s membership is suspended). Without Thomson, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Liberal 61%, Labor 30% and Greens 6%. With Thomson, the results are 64%, 21% and 13%. The former set of figures suggests a two-party split of about 64-36 and a swing against Labor of around 20%, which seems a bit much. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Labor sources have “confirmed the party hoped to finalise its candidate by the end of the year, which would make it impossible for Mr Thomson to clear the legal issues surrounding him in time to resume his party membership and nominate”.

• A 1051-sample poll of state voting intention in Queensland had the primary vote at 56.5% for the LNP, 21.8% for Labor, 9.4% for the Greens and 7.4% for Katter’s Australian Party. This compares with election results of 49.6%, 26.7%, 7.5% and 11.5%.

Now then.

Created when South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, Hindmarsh was traditionally a safe Labor seat covering Adelaide’s working class north-western suburbs. The creation of Port Adelaide as a separate electorate in 1949 made it somewhat less secure, pushing it southwards into more conservative Henley Beach, but only in 1966 was long-term Labor member Clyde Cameron seriously threatened. The watershed moment in its progress from safe Labor to marginal came in 1993, when the abolition of Hawker drew the election further south into Liberal-voting Glenelg. It currently extends along the coast from Glenelg South north to Semaphore Park, from which it extends inland to mostly Labor-voting suburbs south of Grange Road, from Kidman Park to Torrensville south to Morphettville and Ascot Park. The redistribution to take effect at the next election has effected two minor gains, both to Labor’s slight advantage: 3300 voters at Seaton in the north from Port Adelaide, and 1500 voters at Edwardstown in the south from Boothby. Labor’s notional margin is now 6.1%, compared with 5.7% at the election.

The Liberals’ first win in the seat followed the aforementioned redistribution at the 1993 election, at which a cut in the notional margin to 1.2% coincided with the retirement of sitting Labor’s John Scott, who had been the member since 1980. The Liberal candidate was Christine Gallus, who had become the first Liberal ever to win Hawker in 1990. She duly followed by becoming the first Liberal to win Hindmarsh, defeating future state government minister John Rau with a 2.8% swing. Party hard-heads rated Gallus’s vote-pulling power very highly, and they were duly dismayed when she decided to retire at the 2004 election. The Liberals were also damaged by a redistribution that added a northern coastal spur through Grange to Labor-voting Semaphore, which cut the margin from 1.9% to 1.1%.

It was thus widely expected that the seat would fall to Labor candidate Steve Georganas, a former taxi driver backed by the “soft Left” faction in a deal that saw the Right’s Kate Ellis take Adelaide. So it proved, but Georganas was given a run for his money by Liberal candidate Simon Birmingham, who limited the swing to 1.2% and came within 108 votes of victory (and went on to become a Senator in 2007). Georganas’s margins were increased by 5.0% and 0.7% at the elections of 2007 and 2010, which represented modest growth by the standards of other South Australians, such that the margin is now substantially lower than in three seats (Makin, Kingston and Wakefield) which Labor had been unable to win in 2004. This partly represented the party’s lack of mortgage-paying areas, and their attendant electoral volatility.

Nonetheless, Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reported in May that Liberal internal polling showed Hindmarsh to be the party’s most likely gain in South Australia. Their candidate is Matthew Williams, national business development manager with law firm Piper Alderman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,352 comments on “Seat of the week: Hindmarsh”

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  1. [Nonetheless, Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reported in May that Liberal internal polling showed Hindmarsh to be the party’s most likely gain in South Australia. Their candidate is Matthew Williams, national business development manager with law firm Piper Alderman.]
    I wonder at motives.
    Chris Kenny and Mark are completely professional

  2. Labor will win this seat. Great local member,big heart, the libs will focus as a point of reference , Bring up trash, but there is none.

  3. From what I can gather from my Adelaide friends, grey, Mark Kenny is relatively benign – at least by Murdoch standards.

    Chris is the toxic one, and arguably should really be at the Telegraph. Are they brothers?

  4. You know they are.
    Ever since Chris got his jollies with the “secret womens business” stuff when Robert Tickner (A fine man) was Minister he’s thought he can bang on about anything.I suppose in that respect I am showing no more imagination than him in my criticism.
    I still think he a turd burglar.

  6. I didn’t know Chris was behind that hysteria – didn’t know enough about the SA scene then – but it would be consistent with what he’s done since – very close to Steve Lewis levels.

    Anyway, a good analysis of the lies about the “she lied” bullshit.
    [Perhaps in hindsight the Prime Minister could have made the limitation to her commitment clearer by saying there would be no carbon tax under ”a majority government led by me”.

    But, to be fair, before the election, no one was taking seriously the possibility of a hung parliament. Shared government was not on anyone’s agenda.

    However, it should have been obvious that ”majority government” was implied in her statement, because, logically, one cannot make firm commitments on behalf of a possible future minority government, since one does not have the unfettered power to carry them out.

    To keep calling what the Prime Minister said a ”lie” is to misuse language, disfigure the debate and debase politics. And it is to be guilty, as Abbott is, of telling a lie yourself.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/taxing-the-truth-why-we-must-not-let-abbotts-dogmas-lie-20120706-21mlz.html#ixzz1zs81lfvv ]
    And I guess it is ironic that The Parrot, the biggest liar around on Climate Change, should have headed the pack on that charge.

  7. [GD,
    And I guess it is ironic that The Parrot, the biggest liar around on Climate Change, should have headed the pack on that charge.]

    Do you GD, think it ironic that such a raging homosexuaol as Alan should impinge on other peoples lives. Who have never met such an old ridiculous poof.

  8. Here’s Talcum …

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-06/turnbull-backs-gay-civil-unions/4115982

    [Liberal MP Malcolm Turnbull has proposed a compromise solution to the emotive issue of gay marriage.

    Debate on the issue has exposed divisions within political parties, and the Coalition’s position does not allow for any change to marriage laws.

    But speaking at the sixth annual Michael Kirby lecture on the Gold Coast, Mr Turnbull said Parliament should legislate civil unions for same-sex couples.

    “I think it would be a great pity if marriage is not able to be passed in the Parliament, civil unions,” he said.

    “That opportunity to pass civil unions should be taken up.

    “And I think it probably will be between now and when the Parliament is dissolved at the time of the election.”]

    … testing the water.

  10. Thanks BW, Lizzie and Victoria for your advice re Dandenongs.

    Ashby Slipper imbroglio looks like it is heading for a quagmire which is not surprising when you have competing media hungry law firms (Harmers v Maurice Blackburn Cashman) running the show.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers
    And the saga continues. Disgraceful, really.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/top-priest-keeps-silent-over-clashing-accounts-of-child-sex-admissions-20120706-21mg4.html
    This is heading for a showdown somewhere.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/supermarket-price-war-hitting-suppliers-20120706-21mg2.html
    Bring it on, I say.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/father-to-take-canberra-on-again-over-chaplains-20120706-21mop.html
    David Pope on Abbott and climate science.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg on religion and science.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    $202000 legal bill for Mary-Jo Fisher. That has to criminal in itself!
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/bid-to-sue-ex-senator-mary-jo-fisher-vexatious-court-told/story-e6frea6u-1226419027232

  13. Talking to someone over night, who thinks the judge would be a bit surprise in how this ashby vs slipper case is turning out
    The judge would have expected it to be the normal run of the mill sexual harassment case.

  14. One James Ashby may be feeling a tad nervous.

    [THE staffer who has accused Peter Slipper of sexual harassment could face up to 10 years in jail

    In a letter to Mr Ashby (pictured), Mr Slipper’s lawyers suggested the former media adviser could have breached sections of the Commonwealth Crimes Act, which prohibits public servants from publishing or communicating internal documents without authorisation.The offence carries a maximum two years’ jail.

    The letter, written on June 28, also suggests Mr Ashby could be prosecuted for participating in a conspiracy with Mr Brough, Lewis, and another Slipper aide, Karen Doane.

    Further, he may have committed the offence of causing harm to a public official under the Commonwealth Criminal Code. That offence carries a maximum 10 years’ jail]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/staffer-could-face-10-years-for-sharing-slippers-diary-20120706-21mna.html#ixzz1zsaQZxY2

  17. GD:

    [Perhaps in hindsight the Prime Minister could have made the limitation to her commitment clearer by saying there would be no carbon tax {a price on carbon pollution under ”a government led by me’}’.]

    Simple, better.

  19. William’s report re Dobell is interesting on pre-selection. I hope Deborah O’neill’s counsel is sought as someone who appears to be a successful local member in an adjoining seat.

  20. Good Morning Bludgers! 🙂
    My, my Thomas Paine became well-unhinged last night. Still, if there’s one thing I’ve realised about the relationship between politics and the electorate and how it determines the way some people will vote, it’s that grudges can be held for a very long time.

    I was handing out HTVs once and this old guy refused to take a Labor HTV then proceeded to give me a lecture about why he would never vote for the ALP again after what they had done during WW2! I think he was talking about Chifley breaking up the Coal Workers’ strike and sending them back to work. 🙂

  21. [ I think he was talking about Chifley breaking up the Coal Workers’ strike and sending them back to work.]

    Let’s hope so … they did send in the army … albeit 4 years after the war had ended.

  22. Brumbys to engage social media expert to repel carbon tax muck up. Maybe they can give Harmers a call and see if Anthony McCllellan is available.

  23. shellbell@19,

    William’s report re Dobell is interesting on pre-selection. I hope Deborah O’neill’s counsel is sought as someone who appears to be a successful local member in an adjoining seat.

    As Deb’s Electorate Officer is a Dobell pre-selector, I think you can guarantee there will be some cross-pollination of thoughts. Also, as Deb is the Vice President of the NSW ALP now, her views will be important and contributory.

    Also, a shout out to any Liberals out there who organise the photos for the candidates. Last week we got our first letterbox drop of material spruiking Liberal candidate for Robertson, Lucy Wicks. My youngest son, who doesn’t know crap from shinola about politics, said when he saw the photo on the front of the leaflet, “Who’s she? She looks like a penis with hair on top.” 😀

    Sorry for the indelicacy of my comment so early in the morning, but that’s boys for you!

  24. C@tmomma

    [My, my Thomas Paine became well-unhinged last night.]

    TP goes on and on about ‘factions’ … what does he think Kev-07’s little group is?

    👿

  25. deborah knight ‏@deborah_knight
    Breaking news – Tony Abbott has been injured in a car accident in Brisbane. Details to you in next news on @thetodayshow

  26. Fran Barlow@21,
    Yes, I wasn’t quite sure about whether it was during or after WW2, and I was too lazy to Google it! I’ll never forget the spray though. 😉

  28. One of the reasons it wouldn’t be during WW2 was that the Stalinists favoured the Western allies opening a second front, and after the Teheran Conference even dissolved the Comintern to prove their compatibility with the west. It was only prior to Operation Barbarossa that they opposed Western military intervention.

  29. Gee, there seems to be a resolute redoubt of support for Labor in Brisbane. A car accident with Campbell Newman involved the other day, Tony Abbott today. And, yes, I’m joking! 😀

    To make it clear, I don’t like seeing anyone hurt in car accidents as my late husband had his back broken by a drunk driver when he was 18 and suffered the rest of his life because of it.

  33. [deborah knight ‏@deborah_knight
    Breaking news – Tony Abbott has been injured in a car accident in Brisbane. Details to you in next news on @thetodayshow]

    Was the other vehicle a mining truck?

  34. Yeah, right…

    [Shut up or be kicked out, LNP tells Clive
    CLIVE Palmer risks expulsion from Queensland’s Liberal National Party if he maintains his very public campaign to contest a seat at the next federal election.

    Party bosses yesterday issued a warning against any member making comments to the media about internal issues, including preselections.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/shut-up-or-be-kicked-out-lnp-tells-clive/story-e6frgczx-1226419451908

    You can just see them saying, “Thanks for the coupl’a mill, Clive, but you’re out.”

  36. Seems to be common to most western democracies –

    [British democracy in terminal decline, warns report

    Exclusive: Corporate power, unrepresentative politicians and apathetic voters leave UK ‘increasingly unstable’, says study]

    [Among its concerns, identified from databases of official statistics and public surveys, were that Britain’s constitutional arrangements are “increasingly unstable” owing to changes such as devolution; public faith in democratic institutions “decaying”; a widening gap in the participation rates of different social classes of voters; and an “unprecedented” growth in corporate power, which the study’s authors warn “threatens to undermine some of the most basic principles of democratic decision-making”.]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jul/06/british-democracy-decline-report

  38. And finally, the DT posts a story about Ashby:

    [Peter Slipper’s accuser James Ashby has been allowed to delay giving evidence

    ISABEL HAYES
    The Daily Telegraph
    July 07, 2012 12:00AM

    PARLIAMENTARY staffer James Ashby, who has accused house of representatives Speaker Peter Slipper of sexual harassment, has been allowed to delay giving evidence in order to avoid incriminating himself in the light of “serious criminal claims” against him.

    Federal Court judge Steven Rares ruled yesterday Mr Ashby need not file any response or affidavits in his case against the Commonwealth or Mr Slipper until the other sides had presented their case.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/peter-slippers-accuser-james-ashby-has-been-allowed-to-delay-giving-evidence/story-fndo28a5-1226419493334

    Short, but sweet. Poor Steve Lewis, he didn’t know he was dealing with a criminal.

  40. Good Morning Bludgers,

    I am on cherub rugby league duties this morning (I’m actually coaching because my husband is working!).

    If it is true that the LNP want to boot Clive if he continues his campaign (can’t see him shutting up, can you?) judging by Clive’s recent history it could be the equivalent of kicking a hornets nest.

    At a guess, Clive could be the benefactor behind any number of dodgy LNP moves and would know where the skeletons are buried!

    Have a great day Bludgers!

  43. shellbell

    If you’re there, are you able to give us an indication of what effect, if any, this decision by the judge to allow Ashby to delay giving his evidence will have on the overall outcome for the Commonwealth and Slipper.

    I haven’t been able to tune in much for the past couple of days so apologies if you have already discussed it and I missed your comments.

  45. my say,
    I’m sure michelle is rushing to be by Tony’s hospital bedside even as I type this. 🙂

    It’s amazing though, a near miss before the 2010 election, and now a collector. The things Mr Abbott will do for Newspoll after a bad week when his messages started to sound very tired, very quickly. 😉

  46. Woke this morning to a headline “We have to talk about Kevin”, as quoted by an earlier bludger. We don’t, actually. Well done the first person who said “look out it’s Poll weekend”.

    Interested in the comment that Rudd refused to serve under Gillard even though she had more votes in caucus at that time. I remember that he only became leader because she threw her votes behind him.

  48. BW, once again we were right. Libya is slowly turning into Iran Mark 2. They have never learned. Now there many Gadaffis to deal with as well as the Muslim Brotherhood.

  49. Darn@43,
    Fwiw, my reading of Justice Rares remarks in court yesterday, and I’m no legal parser, was that, if you have a criminal case arising out of these matters, get thee to the Criminal Court, this is supposed to be a sexual harassment case in the Federal Court, and that’s all I’m interested in really.

  50. Regardless of the methodology, those seat polls are a real worry. At the last election, the betting odds for each individual seat turned out to be a more reliable indicator than the overall odds, IIRC.

    As for Hindmarsh, Steve Georganas is a hard-working and popular local member, but the result will, as always, depend on the overall swing.

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