GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
• ReachTel published results from an automated phone poll of 644 respondents in Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Denison, which showed Wilkie well placed with 40% of the primary vote (compared with 21.3% at the 2010 election) to 28% for the Liberals (22.6%), 17% for Labor (35.8%) and 14% for the Greens (19.0%), panning out to a 65-35 win over Liberal after preferences. However, a Labor internal poll of 400 respondents reported by Matthew Denholm in The Australian had very different results: 23% for Wilkie, 26% for Labor, 31% for the Liberals and 17% for the Greens. Peter Brent at Mumble considered the likely wash-up after preferences, which – despite the roughly 10% swing in Labor-versus-Liberal terms – was as it was at the 2010 election: Wilkie would win if Greens and other preferences allowed him to overtake Liberal and/or Labor, but otherwise preferences from him and the Greens would deliver Labor a comfortable victory. The poll was also said to show Denison voters giving Julia Gillard a strong lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, of 51% to 26%. Anne Mather of The Mercury reports mental health policy adviser Jane Austin is assured of Labor preselection in Denison after winning the endorsement of the Left. The preselection will be officially confirmed at the party’s state conference in August.
• The Nationals have conducted their preselection for Rob Oakeshott’s seat of Lyne, again choosing their unsuccessful candidate from 2010, Port Macquarie gastroenterologist David Gillespie, from a field of five candidates.
• The Nationals have also conducted their preselection for the north coast NSW seat of Page, held for Labor by Janelle Saffin on a margin of 4.2%, choosing Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan over Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson.
• The Parramatta Advertiser reports that Martin Zaiter, a 29-year-old partner in a local accountancy firm, has won Liberal preselection for Parramatta. The unsuccessful candidates included Charles Camenzuli, who ran in 2010. Julie Owens holds the seat for Labor on a margin of 4.4%.
• Accumulating political difficulties for Mal Brough have refocused attention on the Liberal National Party preselection for Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher, for which nominations close tomorrow. The most widely mentioned alternative contender has been Peta Simpson, director of Maroochydore recruitment agency New Staff Solutions.
• Brett Worthington of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Jack Lyons of Lyons Constructions, business owner and teacher Peter Wiseman and transport business owner Greg Bickley have nominated for Liberal preselection in Bendigo, where Labor members Steve Gibbons will retire at the next election. An earlier report in the Bendigo Advertiser reported Anita Donlon, an activist for anti-carbon tax group the Consumers and Taxpayers Association and candidate for Bendigo West at the state election, was weighing up whether to nominate.
• ABC Newcastle reports Troy Jurd, a director with the NSW Department of Corrective Services Troy Jurd, Greta heart surgeon Duncan Thompson and Upper Hunter councillor Michael Johnsen will contest Liberal preselection for Hunter, which Joel Fitzgibbon holds for Labor on a margin of 12.5%.
• Ken McGregor of The Advertiser reports the SA Liberal Party state council will meet on July 27 to determine a replacement for outgoing Senator Mary Jo Fisher. Kate Raggatt, a former staffer to Nick Minchin, has backing from her old old boss’s Right faction and has been widely discussed as a front-runner, but Michael Owen of The Australian reports that her membership has lapsed, and factional rivalries will make it difficult for her to win the waiver she will need from state executive in order to nominate. The other front-runner is said to be moderate-backed Anne Ruston, owner of a Riverland flower-growing business. Serial aspirant Maria Kourtesis has ruled herself out, saying she wishes to stay focused on the state seat of Bright, which she narrowly failed to win from Labor at the 2010 state election. Still circulating as possible candidates are “Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu and Chris Moriarty” UPDATE: The ABC reports the nominees are Bev Barber, Gary Burgess, Greg Mayfield, Kate Raggatt, Anne Ruston and Marijka Ryan.
DG
Now that would be delicious!
Scrap cat,
Your Air France ticket is in the mail?
I usually feel sympathy for the underdog, and Collingwood seems to have that status on PB tonight.
But, on second thoughts, I will pass. 😆
[Your Air France ticket is in the mail?]
addressed to: Le Petit Canard Noir, Le PollBludger, Australie.
Aguirre
Yes I agree with that. Abbott is on fairly ice, because it’s obvious that the public don’t like him and will only vote for him if they are determined to get rid of Labor. So the real question is whether Gillard is able to lead a recovery for Labor once the phoniness of Abbott’s campaign sinks in, or whether she has been so damaged by her own early mistakes and the horror year she had last year that she can’t recover. I think it’s a reasonable bet that the next election will not be a contest between Abbott and Gillard: we just don’t know which one will fall over before the election. But on the other hand neither party has an obvious alternative.
Alan Kohler @AlanKohler
A$ has hit 83 euro cents for the first time. #pariscalling
MOAR BISONS
[I think it’s a reasonable bet that the next election will not be a contest between Abbott and Gillard: we just don’t know which one will fall over before the election. But on the other hand neither party has an obvious alternative.]
Herr Doktor, i just cant imagine Labor would get rid of 2 sitting PM in a row. If they do, i am migrating.
Psephos
The Libs might do another can do with Christian Porter from WA.
Scrap cat,
J’espère.
[A$ has hit 83 euro cents for the first time. #pariscalling
MOAR BISONS]
Z, i have predicted to the Kouk it will be parity soon. Maybe early next year.
Things not looking good in the Land Of The Rising Sun:
Japan’s Government Could Run Out Of Cash By October>
Scarpat,
I might be offended if I were to interpret “canard” all the wrong way.
[Herr Doktor, i just cant imagine Labor would get rid of 2 sitting PM in a row]
The first time is the hardest, the second time is BAU.
[I might be offended if I were to interpret “canard” all the wrong way.]
A direct translation, tlbd, a direct translation is the right way.
[Things not looking good in the Land Of The Rising Sun:]
Dan, no worries. Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc will come to the rescue. We have bought Ginza.
Psephos,
I think you might be interested in this psephologically-based article by Malcolm Mackerras:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/what-are-the-odds-therell-be-a-double-dissolution-election-20120705-21k0l.html
Scarpat,
Do you have an assignment with the wall paintings near you?
The South Americans and Australians are “finding” “old stuff” all over the place.
Finns, that’s probably so. There’s also the horrible example of NSW. No-one wants to be another Kristina Kenneally. But as we have learned, politics is an unpredictable game. Also Labor has better leadership alternatives than the Libs do. Smith would make a perfectly competent PM, if not a very exciting one. Of the Libs, I could only say that about Turnbull, and they won’t have him back. There’s no-one else.
How can anyone think a 9 second 100 metre footrace is more interesting than an etape of the TdF?!
Psephos:
My reading of the situation is that Abbott only has one role to play – drag the ALP vote down. If he fails to do that, there’s no reason to keep him as leader of the Liberals. He doesn’t really do anything else, and he’s not equipped to either.
But then I think that if he fails in that role the whole party is stuffed, because they’ve thrown everything into that basket and it’s too late to develop policies to compete with the ALP. They could try Turnbull again, but for one thing they won’t and for another he wouldn’t succeed anyway. Poll momentum would drag the whole Coalition down with it.
I think both parties are locked in with their leaders, and whoever loses the election replaces their leader immediately. If the ALP goes down, I want three years of Combet pulling Abbott’s wings off. If the Coalition goes down… well, who’d want to play the Brendan Nelson role for them?
[Psephos,
I think you might be interested in this psephologically-based article by Malcolm Mackerras:]
Thanks for linking that earlier. This passage was especially striking:
[I express it in that way because I have a very negative view of Coalition policy in this matter. They claim to have principles but, as far as I am concerned, none of their claims has any substance. In my opinion their ”principles” are threefold.
First, the more boats the more votes for us. Second, the boats must be stopped – but they must not be stopped by a Labor government. Third, our right to gloat at Labor’s expense must be allowed to prevail over every other consideration.]
Of all the improbable scenarios I could think of, Labor forcing a DD on boats is about the most improbable.
Psephos,
There may be Labor pollies with stuff in the knapsack but they are keeping a very low profile.
On the other hand, if Peta loses her grip for one moment then the Noaltion will explode.
Antony Green suggests that a DD would be possible mid-2015 at the earliest.
If the coalition were to win in 2013 I think they would pick the low-hanging fruit first.
Many innaccurate things are posted on PB but some misinformation cannot be allowed to stand. Black Velvet is not Guinness and Cider – that is Poor Man’s Black Velvet. Champagne and Guinness is Black Velvet.
[Do you have an assignment with the wall paintings near you?
The South Americans and Australians are “finding” “old stuff” all over the place.]
tlbd,
I belive that Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc are doing a roaring trade in “old stuff”…
Duck, I think Labor has several excellent future leaders, just not before the next election. If Gillard goes for whatever reason before the election, either Smith or Crean will be put in as nightwatchman.
I won’t speculate about where Ms Credlin has her grip.
How to rig an election
______________
Any complaints you may have with the way elections are run in Australia(and they would have be few) will melt away when you read of the corruption by the two conservative parties in the recent Mexican election
How about millions of debit cards with $50 value on them for groceries…which can only be used after the elections if the right wing party wins
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/07/05/electoral-hijinks-in-mexico/
In re Guinness, I can assure you that Guinness + cider is way tastier than Guinness + bubbly.
[I belive that Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc are doing a roaring trade in “old stuff”…]
Scarp, indeed we are. we specialise in “old” US Treasury Bonds of the 20s & 30s that were left behind in the jungle
Finns
Sounds like the Japs could borrow a few BISONs.
[I won’t speculate about where Ms Credlin has her grip.]
Before coming Leader of the Opposition, Mr Abbott’s voice was basso profondo.
rishane,
Yes, Mackerras made many apt & pithy comments in that article. I especially liked the one about Kevin Rudd:
Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/what-are-the-odds-therell-be-a-double-dissolution-election-20120705-21k0l.html#ixzz1zqgAjijp
😀
[bB
I just bought a new Garmin GPS, I am wondering how accurate the speed measure is, as it reckons my car speedo is a bit slow. I go by the car speedo just in case.]
Car speedometers usually show a higher speed than the car is actually travelling.
Mine is +2% over, meaning that at an actual 100kph the speedometer shows “102kph”.
This is so that you can’t blame the speedo (and the car manufacturer) if you’re sprung speeding.
The GPS will give you an accurate speed every time, upon refresh. My GPS is an old hand-held Garmin that refreshes every 2 seconds.
The first time I used it was in 1998, hooked up to a lap top in the car, running “moving map” software. It was hopelessly inaccurate in the immediate area, being up to 100 metres in error at times.
This was because it had “SA” (Selective Availability) built into it by the US military, presumably so that terrorists couldn’t shoot a missle through the Oval Office window with any degree of certainty.
The night before we left on our trip Clinton cancelled the SA by Presidential Executive Order. Suddenly the somewhat clunky accuracy of my GPS became less than 5 metres, less than 3 usually. You could navigate to a farm gate with it and be within spitting distance when the GPS indicated you’d arrived.
This was useful, as our first trip using GPS was to the far, and relatively trackless reaches of the Simpson Desert, via (a full) Lake Eyre. You could navigate at night or any other time with perfect certainty that you were exactly where the GPS and map software said you were. The only worry was hitting a kangaroo (which we never did, thankfully).
HI, who had treated my “toy” with a plonking condescension when it was inaccurate, became a big fan after the inbuilt error was removed from the system, especially one night where we drove 350 kilometres through the back blocks of the Darling River, from Lake Mungo to west of Pooncarie, thence to the Menindee Lakes, without seeing a soul the whole way (except for the town of Pooncarie, of course). When I told her that a particular turn off would be just about…. “here”… up it popped, perfect. We found the camp ground at Lake Cawndilla in the pitch dark, off a sheep track, off a rutted road, in the middle of nowhere.
Woke up the next morning in paradise… what Lake Mungo must have looked like 20,000 years ago: pelicans, seagulls, all forms of aquatic plant life and an endless horizon of water, with gentle wavelets lapping the shore… in the middle of the desert!
Today the GPS maps are pre-programmed at the factory, and not always accurate, especially “out back”. In those days you had to input your own maps of scans available from Australian Geoscience on CD (or scan the rarer ones in yourself), then calibrate them into the system, to the pixel.
Ah…. the GPS users of today… spoilt rotten…they don’t know they were born…
Unfortunately, however, he lacked the guts to do that.
To be fair to Rudd (which is hard for me, but I will try), he was forced into that decision by Swan, Gillard and Tanner. I think it was the worst single decision this government has made, and one of the worst any government has ever made. It led directly to Rudd’s downfall, and the Labor government has never really recovered from it.
Psephos,
I agree that Labor has very good people. I can’t think of too many who have the grip on many fronts to become PM. If labor loses next year, I can see some in the most comfortable in their current portfolio stepping up: Combet, …?
If I were an ALP member, and I may be if it comes to it, I would back Julia Gillard to stay as leader of Labor. In my opinion, she is unequalled.
The moral of the story in #6084 is that if I had been using my speedometer and not the GPS, I’d have set my cruise control to 110 indicated, but it really would have been about 107.5.
As a result I wouldn’t have been pinged for 111 – “over 10kph above the limit” – and would only have been fined for 107.5 (if at all), just 1 demerit point, and about half the fine.
Smartarses always get their comeuppances.
Someone above wrote that Lewis had been ordered to produce all documents etc. That was at the last sitting. Today’s hearing was to see whether he had to actually comply. As far as I know, no decision was handed down.
BB,
Didn’t today’s bloke say that Ashby did not have to comply but with a tail?
Psephos @ 6055
The ALP does.
BB
Next hearing is on the 13th July
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/i-should-not-have-to-comply-insists-journalist-lewis-20120706-21l83.html
[Lewis has been ordered to produce all communication he had with Mr Slipper’s former staffer James Ashby, before a sexual harassment claim made by Mr Ashby against the Mr Slipper became public.
He has also been ordered to reveal all emails, memos, text messages, and phone records sent between himself and former Howard government minister Mal Brough, Mr Ashby’s media adviser, Anthony McClellan and another Slipper aide, Karen Doane.
This morning, Justice Steven Rares told Lewis’s barrister, Martin Smith, to put on submissions and an affidavit to support the application to set aside the subpoena by July 10.
The matter will be heard on July 13]
Night all
I can excuse Phil and Paul fawning over Mark Cavendish; Aussie commentators would do no differently.
Goss beat Cavendish in the intermediate sprint.
[BB
Next hearing is on the 13th July]
I still bristle that the judge commented the whole thing was getting bigger than Ben Hur.
I put the blame for that fairly and squarely on Ashby and his advisors. The Commonwealth and Slipper are only defending themselves by pointing out that, in their opinion, the whole case is a put-up job.
Now Ashby says he can’t tell what’s been going behind the scenes because he might get in trouble.
It’s pathetic. This guy has benefited from being in cahoots with Lewis, Brough, et al behind Slipper’s and the Commonwealth’s back, and now seeks to use this very malfeasance as an excuse not to have to fess up. He’s getting two bites at the cherry: one to get the scandal up and running, and the other to stop it being examined as such.
BB,
The course of justice grinds exceeding slowly slow.
This particular judgement has narrowed slightly the playing field.
The position of Mr Ashby and Co has in no way improved.
Bemused, if you mean Rudd, you are dead wrong. He hasn’t changed. If he came back, he’d be just as despotic and just as incompetent as he was last time. The Murdoch press, having built him up for last two years, would immediately turn on him again, and we’d be back where we were in June 2010. Anyway it won’t happen because most of the Caucus would rather tear their heads off.
Psephos @ 6085
So Swan, Gillard and Tanner were the villains and Rudd gets it in the neck.
Thank you for your candour.
Kevin Rudd, since deposed, has shown no sign of humility or of given unconditional support to the current management.