The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
Eden-Monaro was held by conservatives of various stripes for all but one term until 1943, the exception being Labor’s 40-vote win when Jim Scullin’s government came to power in 1929. Allan Fraser won the seat for Labor with the 1943 landslide and held it against the tide in 1949 and 1951. He was defeated in 1966 but was back in 1969, finally retiring in 1972. The loss of his personal vote almost saw the seat go against the trend of the 1972 election, with the Country Party overtaking their conservative rivals for the first time to come within 503 votes of victory. The Country Party again finished second in 1974, this time coming within 146 votes of defeating Labor member Bob Whan (whose son Steve unsuccessfully contested the seat in 1998 and 2001, and was later the state member for Monaro). However, 1975 saw the Liberals gain strongly at the expense of the Country Party as well as Labor, and their candidate Murray Sainsbury won the seat with a two-party margin of 5.6%. Sainsbury held the seat until the defeat of the Fraser government in 1983; the same fate befell his Labor successor, Jim Snow, who was swept out by a 9.2% swing when Labor lost office in 1996, and then Gary Nairn, who served as Special Minister of State from January 2006 until the November 2007 election defeat.
Labor’s successful candidate was Lieutenant-Colonel Mike Kelly, a military lawyer who had been credited with efforts to warn the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade about the AWB kickbacks scandal, and the Australian military about possible abuses at Abu Ghraib prison. Kelly was installed as candidate a week after the party’s national conference empowered the state executive to appoint candidates in 25 key seats over the heads of the local party branches. A member of the Right faction, he won immediate promotion to parliamentary secretary for defence support, shifting to the water portfolio in February 2009. After the 2010 election he was shifted to the agriculture, fisheries and forestry portfolio, which was criticised owing to Kelly’s status as the federal parliament’s only war veteran. He was restored to his earlier role in the December 2011 reshuffle.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Peter Hendy, a former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive and previously a staffer to Brendan Nelson and Peter Reith. Hendy reportedly had a comfortable victory over three other candidates, including Sustainable Agricultural Communities director Robert Belcher. The Nationals have reportedly approached Cooma mayor Dean Lynch to run, having determined that the Liberals’ endorsement of Hendy offers them a “point of difference” owing to his stance on foreign investment and the currency of foreign farm ownership as an issue locally.
It’s popcorn time with Blair.
[Have you every tried spaghetti di hansardi? Lovely meal this time of year.]
Is that with a green fettucini representing the House of Reps and a red sauce representing the Senate?
As someone quoted in Hansard, I think that would be worth a go.
Rua,
Could it be about the AFP Slipper findings?
[Julia Gillard @JuliaGillard
Welcome back tonight @leighsales. I hope you and baby Daniel are well. JG #abc730]
I like it. I like it a lot. 😉
Shows:
Were you quoted in Hansard?
I wasn’t aware of that…
🙂
Mod Lib
Why do I jest?
I have already made comments today about polls.
Gillard beats Abbott on every single issue, many issues that you have conceded as such.
Go take your propaganda (that Gillard is not doing well) somewhere else.
You are going to lose like usual 😎
Jay’s use of language is superb.
BB,
Good posts re: NBN
As often noted, the NBN is all about symmetrical speeds. People who point to ADSL or 3G/4G WiFi download speeds simply do not get it: if you want improved services delivered via the web (education, medical etc) you need high speed symmetrical connections with low contention and consistent speeds. High speed 4G still suffers from the same old reception and reliability issues affecting any WiFi service. Anyone who thinks WiFi is the answer obviously hasnt been at the pointy end of running a business with regional branches which rely on internet connectivity. I’m a sysadmin supporting satellite offices throughout WA. I know exactly what the NBN delivers….and it’s all GOOD.
The benefits to govt, business and consumers of service delivery via symmetrical high speed broadband services in regional areas are not just dramatic, they are revolutionary. Video conferencing is just the tip of the iceberg….
You are a very odd fish, Roy Orbison.
guytaur
[Tony Blair is still good]
As oleaginous as ever. One dreams of he and George Arbusto ending up in the dock together charged with waging a war of aggression in Iraq.
[Gillard beats Abbott on every single issue, many issues that you have conceded as such.]
Apart from the following:
1. Primary votes
2. TPP vote
3. Preferred PM
4. Just about every question asked about the major parties in this week’s Essential poll
Centre
[Let me tell you something seriously, if Labor goes to the election with a united party behind Julia – SHE WILL DEAD SET WIN!]
Bookmarked! And you can bookmark this:
With Julia at the helm SHE WILL DEAD SET LOSE!
Time will tell.
[Shows:
Were you quoted in Hansard?
I wasn’t aware of that…]
Yes I was quoted in Hansard. You can read it in Hansard.
poroti
I was not alluding to that. That was just bad decisions. I was commenting on Blair as performer.
[ShowsOn
Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 7:15 pm | Permalink
Shows:
Were you quoted in Hansard?
I wasn’t aware of that…
Yes I was quoted in Hansard. You can read it in Hansard.]
In relation to something about obsessive compulsive disorder perhaps?
so Blair basically admits that if you don’t play ball with ‘senior media people’ you’re screwed – and it makes you think about our PM NOT playing ball and thus getting screwed – my admiration for this minority govt just grows more and more – and my contempt for ‘senior media people’ grows more and more
Compact Crank
[There were no Votes against any cuts. They weren’t put to a vote.]
1 NOT TRUE
The only part of the CP & MRRT packages (to my knowledge) not presented, covers the MRRT provision (not CP) for 1% drop in Big Business company tax, which Abbott and Greens oppose. The government has flagged an intention to get it passed before Budget 2013.
[And most Small Business owners understand the logic of not supporting the proposed 1% cuts becuase of how it relates to the other tax packages which they are opposed to – and will be gotten rid of as soon as the Coalition has a chance.]
2. TRUTH
ALL business cuts (other that those for the biggest businesses) were PASSED! Offspring had an ABN, runs a small business and is getting (a) the new tax threshold (<$18,000 taxable income) (b) The write-offs (c) and, if taxable income is above that, a another lower threshold and 1% tax reduction PLUS the small business superannuation whatever- offspring hasn't mentioned a seminar on that yet; but hey, have there been seminars etc or have there been seminars on the rest.
I am surrounded by people (6 families, not inc offspring) & have friends (& offspring's friends) running small businesses, all in different industry groups; only 2 not an LNP voters! Their accounting firms – the sort who employ taxation gurus who've been to all the seminars, workshops etc – have already done the sums: ongoing CP compo, highest tax cut-off points, write-offs, improved super.
All + offspring will be between somewhat & considerably better off. If you’re a small business, hiring an expert accounting firm is a “no brainer”. The government complex portfolio of changes covering company and personal tax, and a slew of other ones. Luckily, this city’s full of good accountants.
[Were you quoted in Hansard?
I wasn’t aware of that]
Hell of a lot of criminals and white collar crime get a mentioned in hansard.
[You are a very odd fish, Roy Orbison.]
But only I am a proto-hominid Lizard Person, impersonating a human being from time to time.
Have you sent that email address to C@tmomma, yet, or (in Lizard):
“Yrgrblu-est gnokllin email ytteruig, sdllinkkinghikkidalluwpeetuluj?”
Mob Lib
34 days. 😛
Rex.
Plus now Gillard has Alistair Campbell advising her. I think her strategy with News is most likely framed by what we are hearing here.
[In relation to something about obsessive compulsive disorder perhaps?]
No. It concerned the economic stupidity of the Liberal party.
But I can’t go into details else your head will explode.
[ruawake
Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 7:20 pm | Permalink
Mob Lib
34 days.]
I would think she has much less than that…
Mod Lib, stuff the polls.
Do you know what your polls are going to do for me? Enable me to make an attractive betting move when I feel the time is right 😎
Mick, any day 😛 go and play pin the tail on the monkey with the kiddies 🙂
[ShowsOn
Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 7:21 pm | Permalink
In relation to something about obsessive compulsive disorder perhaps?
No. It concerned the economic stupidity of the Liberal party.
But I can’t go into details else your head will explode.]
Oh, delusional schizophrenia then! 🙂
“You are a very odd fish, Roy Orbison.”
Big statement from a doctoral candidate. Have it your way, then. You’re the boss. Obviously close enough is good enough for you when it comes to people quoting other people. I’m sure others noticed. The original author certainly did.
The difference between the two quotes Roy mentions is pretty obvious, William.
[Blair: It stops being journalism. It becomes an instrument of power and propaganda]
[“Yrgrblu-est gnokllin email ytteruig, sdllinkkinghikkidalluwpeetuluj?”]
I used, of course, the familiar version of Lizard, William. I hope you aren’t offended.
If you are, then….
“Yrgrblu-esx William Bowe gnokllin email ytteruish, yyuterattinghllopverl?”
Sorry for any offence.
[Centre
Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 7:23 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib, stuff the polls.]
I have no doubt you wish you could!
…and still they keep coming…
guytaur,
this govt is screwed thanks to ‘senior media people’ – but the legacy (NBN, CEP, MRRT, etc…) will live
gutaur
[I was not alluding to that. That was just bad decisions. I was commenting on Blair as performer]
No argument there. He is the slickest dissembler that politics has seen since gawd knows when. Best I’ve seen.
[Are you serious? Are you saying that this
The Australian Public can’t think for themselves”
is the same as this?
“Because a terrifyingly large proportion of the Australian population are incapable of thinking for themselves?”]
There is a huge difference between these statements. The second statement could say that 20% of the population can’t think for themselves, which some people would consider a “terrifyingly large proportion”. That is clearly very different to saying the Australian population can’t think for themselves.
William i can tell u
I would hate to be mis quoted like that,
I dont see it as odd at all
Bit scary really
Did people realise that your friendly community pharmacy just got a $14,600 free gift.
Lipitor is now off patent, it is so cheap to make every pharmacy in the country has had a free stash.
My carer was told, you have to have the generic. My mum was told Lipitor was no longer made.
This is for a drug you can buy at the supermarket in europe.
ru’s war on statins proves correct. 🙂
[Big statement from a doctoral candidate. Have it your way, then. You’re the boss. Obviously close enough is good enough for you when it comes to people quoting other people. I’m sure others noticed. The original author certainly did.]
As my old grandlizard used to say, when, as a hatchling, I sat on his tail:
“Sjjkutleewqubven Roy Orbison! Werrlim qu’a STFU prelmuminumty!”
Who says that Julia gillard doesn’t play ball with senior media people? She has met with Murdoch and his senior editors numerous times. She has also frustrated the Greens’ attempts at a proper media enquiry and proper action against News Ltd.
“… an example where something that is wrong becomes a fact…”
Actually
The sentances are entirley different .’
.
There is nothing more pathetic than a lizard who has drunk too much red wrellytibunum-ka.
@6218 Roy Orbison
Talk about hyperbowl.
Define “terrifyingly large proportion of the Australian population”
I can cop being factually corrected but being called liar over something like that is ridiculous.
So much for julias nice tweet to sales
She jyst took off from where ulman left off
FAIL LEE
Ooooh! Michael Lawler “deeply involved in HSU”!
7.30… QUICK!
It’s a must wreyyulttiquare.
Lounge Lizard
[Who says that Julia gillard doesn’t play ball with senior media people? She has met with Murdoch and his senior editors numerous times.]
Well of course.Just by looking at the fawning reportage from “senior media people” one knows it just has to be true 😆
[FAIL LEE]
Sorry, an entirely appropriate story from 7:30. What else could they start with than the crumbling Gillard facade…
Well, after a week in which the ABC decided to actually have its own correspondents on its own news, it has, for reasons best known to itself, reverted to having its flagship news TV news service being used as a vehicle for one of its conflicted media competitors to broadcast its own agenda.
And Alan Kohler, apparently refreshed from his break, was in fine form, with the simply quite bizarre, moronic style he appears unable to escape. This evening’s effort was describing a chart of equity yield and bond rate charts, which he then concluded as “meaningless”. WTF??
Bushfire Bill
[There is nothing more pathetic than a lizard who has drunk too much red wrellytibunum-ka]
Not so good having lunch either 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZYoAmZX4rI
Bushfire Bill Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 7:32 pm | Permalink
Ooooh! Michael Lawler “deeply involved in HSU”!
7.30… QUICK!
SO should i have watched
Guyaur
Will he be ask anything about iraq
Do u think
Weird thing about polls. In early 2007, Possum demonstrated that the polls weren’t moving – I think they were steady at about 55-45 for the ALP. Yet the media narrative was all about how Howard would reel it in, nothing to worry about, steady as she goes.
Well, here we are with polls the other way – in fact I think Possum demonstrated early this year that the trendline was steady at 55-45 for the Coalition and had been for months. Yet the talk has been “Gillard is finished, no chance of getting back, forget about it, change leaders!”
Similar situations, wildly different narratives.
Don’t worry about ModLib either – he wants Gillard gone so that Turnbull can become Liberal leader. He just gets a bit excited whenever the topic comes up. His assumption is that anyone-but-Gillard will wipe the floor with Abbott, but that anyone-but-Gillard will be powerless against Turnbull. Then the four or so moderates in the Coalition will storm the party room and they’ll all live happily ever after.
But Gillard has to go first or he doesn’t get his way.