The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
Eden-Monaro was held by conservatives of various stripes for all but one term until 1943, the exception being Labor’s 40-vote win when Jim Scullin’s government came to power in 1929. Allan Fraser won the seat for Labor with the 1943 landslide and held it against the tide in 1949 and 1951. He was defeated in 1966 but was back in 1969, finally retiring in 1972. The loss of his personal vote almost saw the seat go against the trend of the 1972 election, with the Country Party overtaking their conservative rivals for the first time to come within 503 votes of victory. The Country Party again finished second in 1974, this time coming within 146 votes of defeating Labor member Bob Whan (whose son Steve unsuccessfully contested the seat in 1998 and 2001, and was later the state member for Monaro). However, 1975 saw the Liberals gain strongly at the expense of the Country Party as well as Labor, and their candidate Murray Sainsbury won the seat with a two-party margin of 5.6%. Sainsbury held the seat until the defeat of the Fraser government in 1983; the same fate befell his Labor successor, Jim Snow, who was swept out by a 9.2% swing when Labor lost office in 1996, and then Gary Nairn, who served as Special Minister of State from January 2006 until the November 2007 election defeat.
Labor’s successful candidate was Lieutenant-Colonel Mike Kelly, a military lawyer who had been credited with efforts to warn the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade about the AWB kickbacks scandal, and the Australian military about possible abuses at Abu Ghraib prison. Kelly was installed as candidate a week after the party’s national conference empowered the state executive to appoint candidates in 25 key seats over the heads of the local party branches. A member of the Right faction, he won immediate promotion to parliamentary secretary for defence support, shifting to the water portfolio in February 2009. After the 2010 election he was shifted to the agriculture, fisheries and forestry portfolio, which was criticised owing to Kelly’s status as the federal parliament’s only war veteran. He was restored to his earlier role in the December 2011 reshuffle.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Peter Hendy, a former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive and previously a staffer to Brendan Nelson and Peter Reith. Hendy reportedly had a comfortable victory over three other candidates, including Sustainable Agricultural Communities director Robert Belcher. The Nationals have reportedly approached Cooma mayor Dean Lynch to run, having determined that the Liberals’ endorsement of Hendy offers them a “point of difference” owing to his stance on foreign investment and the currency of foreign farm ownership as an issue locally.
Mod Lib, the polls this far from an election are as useless as Rudd’s lead over Abbott when the monkey first became leader.
Still, you better try to milk them for what they’re worth to try to cause instability in the Labor Party while you can?
If Julia leads a united party, which she will, I am going to make money, where you will finish with what Abbott will be going to the election – NOTHING!
Good evening all.
Heard a repeat of Chris Evans being interviewed by FRan Kelly this morning about EMAs. A very informative interview in which he set out the issues very clearly.
If people still don’t understand what EMAs are and why we need them, then I’d suggest listening to the interview.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/structural-adjustment-affecting-workers-chris-evans/4036602
poroti if Julia gillard refuses to play ball with them and is the subject of outrageous behaviour from them, why does she not do something about them? Why does she not do what the greens want to do about them?
It is because her not doing anything about them is part of her playing ball with them.
For all the news you follow Bludgers, you still have no idea of how things really work behind the scenes in this country, and you know nothing about your beloved Julia Gillard and her Labor Party.
[Weird thing about polls. In early 2007, Possum demonstrated that the polls weren’t moving – I think they were steady at about 55-45 for the ALP. Yet the media narrative was all about how Howard would reel it in, nothing to worry about, steady as she goes.]
I don’t think this is true at all. I clearly recall Laurie Oakes and Antony Green in particularly saying that the Coalition was heading for defeat as early as early March 2007.
[Bushfire Bill Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 7:32 pm | Permalink
Ooooh! Michael Lawler “deeply involved in HSU”!
7.30… QUICK!
SO should i have watched]
No… somehow it got down to it all being Gillard’s fault and “senior Labor figures” saying “We couldn’t raffle off a chook at a fox’s buck’s night.”
Sorry, I kkultiolccxioped-up.
Poroti@6226
At least our armoured warrior CC was able to ride his US Abrams junk on tax-payer funded rail lines, never to make a quid, built by the business barons running the Liberal party at the time.
my say
No. Unless it is about a false fact opinion inserted into what should be just news.
[Similar situations, wildly different narratives.]
Rubbish. You are comparing a long-term well respected PM who turned several elections around and won over in the end versus a short-term, PM with no public respect who has seen nothing but derision from the public.
[Well, here we are with polls the other way – in fact I think Possum demonstrated early this year that the trendline was steady at 55-45 for the Coalition and had been for months.]
Rubbish. The latest Possum trendline shows a severe blip (in the bad news direction for the ALP over the last couple of months).
[Don’t worry about ModLib either – he wants Gillard gone so that Turnbull can become Liberal leader. ]
Absolutely correct.
[He just gets a bit excited whenever the topic comes up. His assumption is that anyone-but-Gillard will wipe the floor with Abbott, but that anyone-but-Gillard will be powerless against Turnbull]
Anyone-but-Gillard will get a bounce in the polls, they certainly wouldn’t beat Abbott.
Anyone-but-Gillard will be powerless against Turnbull. Yep. 🙂
[But Gillard has to go first or he doesn’t get his way.]
If Liberals would prefer Turnbull to Abbott as their leader, then the power is in their hands to initiate change.
Labor MPs have no say in who is Liberal leader.
Mod Lib is wrong if he thinks otherwise.
So
0//0
To leigh not surprised,
Why did julia bother with her polite tweet,
Hope the tweeters have a go at her
Leisure Suit Larry
[For all the news you follow Bludgers, you still have no idea of how things really work behind the scenes in this country,]
I am quite open to your claim. Soooo how do things really work behind the scenes ? Who are the invisible hands that distort our democracy ?
Bushfire
Did William REALLY call you a
[a proto-hominid Lizard Person, impersonating a human being from time to time.]
If so he should have the inventive of the year award.
I put it up with Hayden’s memorable “if you are the sort of person who likes pulling the wings of dying butterflies the B**** is the man for you”
Are you a lace monitor, a gecho or a dragon?
http://twitter.com/#!/Pollytics/media/slideshow?url=http%3A%2F%2Fyfrog.com%2Fodimutp
Latest Pollytrend
“@AP: Italian cardinal also involved in scandal over leaked documents, Italian newspapers report. http://t.co/h5CGvV7Q
Its the butler and the Cardinal!
Tricot
[THE army’s newest frontline weapon, the Abrams battle tank, arrived in Australia yesterday and immediately encountered problems, with no rail transport available to carry the tank to the Northern Territory.
Its deployment will be further hampered because, at 68 tonnes, the Abrams is too heavy to travel across road bridges in the Northern Territory. ]
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/top-stories/m-abrams-tanks-in-the-wars/story-e6frfkp9-1111112254964#ixzz1w9kXntf0
“@cnni: Tony Blair grilled on ties with Murdoch http://t.co/HOM4gOC4”
Things heating up for the Murdochs if CNN has started to cover this.
Leigh Sales did well against Ross,and bringing in lawler
“why does she not do something about them?”
what do you think the NBN is ?
Abbott has been strident and looking less than well these past few weeks. Poodle virtually disappeared there for several weeks. Since parliament started the MSM and the Libs have gone so hard on Thomson that even some dyed in the wool liberals started questioning their tactics.
Perhaps they’ve been sh*t scarred of what might come out and have been dreading what might eventuate.
Although probably not true (chances are it’s some boring procedural event) perhaps Albo is suspending standing orders to tell the parliament that he’s handed the evidence that Abbott and co have been so scared of to the AFP and to present to parliament the proof of a fit up against Slipper.
I would LMFAO because the Gretch affair, although criminal, wasn’t followed through (trying to stitch someone up by falsifying official documents (emails) is illegal, Kevin Rudd, for reasons that are beyond me decided not to take Gretch to the cleaners). Trying to stitch someone up for fraud (AKA falsifying taxi receipts) is criminal, trying to do so to get someone kicked out of a parliamentary position is also criminal. It would, in effect, be the end of Abbott, Pynne, Brandis and a lot of other Liberals IF they did involve themselves in such a criminal conspiracy with Ashby.
One assumes they’d be that stupid, evidence of past actions certainly indicate they are capable of acting without thought to consequences. :-/
You should do more reading on The Lizard People – they include not just Bushfire Bill, but the entire British Royal Family, amongst others. This is known.
Knifing Gillard would be one of the stupidest moves the Federal ALP could ever make now. As a Coalition supporter keeping her is as good as knifing her. The ALP is buggered either way.
[Knifing Gillard would be one of the stupidest moves the Federal ALP could ever make now. As a Coalition supporter keeping her is as good as knifing her. The ALP is buggered either way.]
I love the smell of Liberal hubris in the evening.
[Are you a lace monitor, a gecho or a dragon?]
I am what you humans would call an “alien life form” from the planet Qaa’Rdlluy’fz’ng’!zim.
(Not as far from Earth as you warm-blooded life forms would like to think).
Leisure Suit Larry
[You should do more reading on The Lizard People – they include not just Bushfire Bill, but the entire British Royal Family, amongst others. This is known]
Apart from commenting on your non answer I can only say Bugger ! I’d put my money on it being the freemasons in cahoots with the gnomes of Zurich 🙂
[Compact Crank
Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 7:50 pm | Permalink
Knifing Gillard would be one of the stupidest moves the Federal ALP could ever make now]
Agreed.
Unfortunately, keeping her is the stupidest.
It looks to me like an infrastructure improvement to give us faster broadband. If it is meant to be a secret weapon to destroy News Limited and the dreaded MSM then it is a very subtle one (although not cheap).
For those who don’t believe in the Lizard People
I rest my case
Judge ‘n Jury rocket@sprocket___
@conceravota @geeksrulz Leigh Sales questions drew link of Lawlers conflict of interest President of FWA Iain Ross knew nothing, saw nothing
Blair – “if they were against you, they were ALL OUT AGAINST YOU !”
so, anyone thinking 7:30 would somehow improve with the departure of Toolman from the presenters desk will be feeling pretty disappointed?
I don’t know why people get about Mod Lib so much on here when he puts his side of things. He’s always been pretty up front with his views. He’s not a concern troll, or a troll of any kind tbh.
Consider him very different to the likes of others who come on to troll, or if there’s a button undone on a Minister’s jacket decide to talk up a change of ALP leadership.
@6319 smug – the reason that is beyond you is that Gretchen is bonkers, or to be be more PC mentally ill.
For those that came in late. Tony Blair Leveson Inquiry News 24
[You should do more reading on The Lizard People – they include not just Bushfire Bill, but the entire British Royal Family, amongst others. This is known.]
LSL is a well-known iikltrnambir-wreltx.
I wouldn’t take any notice of him. In fact, he should be tyyulqquza on sight.
Too kind.
Ta 😉
ON FWA Perceived Conflicts of Interest
(1) Good I/V by leigh Sales of Justice Iain Ross, President of FWA. He was most circumspect about answering any specific questions but as a general principle he said that he thought it inappropriate that any FWA exec would enter the public debate.
(2) The 7.30 Report showed copies of letters to NSW police by one Michael Lawler on behalf of himself and one Kathy Jackson complaining of HSU corruption and naming Michael Williamson, Jackson’s former friend and ally now her mortal foe. He stated in the letters that he was writing in his private capacity and not as a FWA exec. Big deal …. words are so cheap!
(3) By any interpretation Justice Ross’s words in (1) would cover Lawler’s participation in this HSU farce.
[so, anyone thinking 7:30 would somehow improve with the departure of Toolman from the presenters desk will be feeling pretty disappointed?]
I can’t say I didn’t waarrtn’pn youse. Leigh Sales is another noisy iikltrnambir-wreltx (only she’s female the most dangerous or her kind).
7.30 was useful tonight, if not all that informative. At least the ABC has finally noticed the existence of Michael Lawler and his connection with Jackson. 7.30 has also scored access to a complaint from Lawler and Jackson to the police, which looked very interesting, but we had to cut away so that Toolman could drone on about Erica’s masterful performance in Estimates today. Then back to Leigh Sales interviewing the wrong person, Justice Ross of the FWA, who said he couldn’t do or say anything because it was not his job (and referring in passing to the Haitch SU, dog forbid). Might be worth tuning in this week to see if there really is an improvement with Leigh’s return.
[President of FWA Iain Ross knew nothing, saw nothing]
Ross said, hey Lawler anything in the Jackson stuff? Lawler said No. End of story, he hoped.
@6330
Leigh is a bit croaky, but she’s done okay for the first night back. Even on a bad night I’d prefer her to Uhlmann.
I don’t have any problem with Mod Lib. Don’t agree with him on some things but that’s life. I think he places too much emphasis on the past and present polling to argue a case that that’s the way polling will be in 16 months time. He maybe right but then he maybe wrong.
[For those that came in late. Tony Blair Leveson Inquiry News 24]
And on A-PAC, in case News 24 loses patience and does something else, which it often does.
So, another whitewash from 7.30.
We ask. You deny. That’s all folks.
Oooh Satellite scrambling systems gets a mention
Gary:
I am not saying it is wise to take one poll this far out and make a prediction.
I am saying that when every poll has a consistent message,that says something (forget whether it is 55-45 one week and 57-43 next week and then 59-41….its essentially 55-45 or worse always).
But more importantly, I am saying get out there and talk to your fellow Australians. The views of Australians on the Gillard government do not need much analysis and interpretation….they are crystal clear to anyone who is willing to listen.
What grounds has Lawler got for a police complaint?
It saves time (and energy) to just think of 730 as ACA or TT for elites.
Just the narrative, ModLib. They were all riding the Howard horse in 2007. You’d think that political journalists would be able to sniff the wind, but they had no idea at the time. It took until sometime in the election campaign for them to figure it out.
What you’re talking about is a press pack too lazy and presumptive in their views that they couldn’t see what was happening. They respected Howard too much to even notice he was gone.
They’re doing much the same thing with Abbott now. I’m not saying Abbott’s gone, he’s done very well. But by the same token the press pack are just lazily going along with it, rather than applying any critical analysis to anything at all. If the polls do turn, they’ll stick with Abbott to the bitter end. That’s a prediction – may never come to that, but if it does that’s my call. They don’t have a clue.
All you care about is polls, so I’ll excuse you from that general criticism.
I know you’re in a hurry to get your talking points out there, so you probably overlooked the bit where I said “early this year”, which is when Possum was going on about it.
BTW, looking at the Pollytrend you posted, why wasn’t there lots of excitement and “ALP closing the gap” breathless reportage when the trend was closing over the July-Nov period last year? I must have missed it. Abbott did a similar thing early in 2010 and the media nearly creamed their pants over it. When he hit 46-54 they all swooned.
I’ll put the latest up-tick down to three things: Ruddstoration!, Slippergate! and the Thomson witch hunt. They’re the sort of things the Coalition will need a lot more of if they’re going to sustain that large margin.
It saves even more time not to think about it at all.
[I don’t know why people get about Mod Lib so much on here when he puts his side of things. He’s always been pretty up front with his views. He’s not a concern troll, or a troll of any kind tbh.]
He does have a habit of putting forth opinons on issues he doesn’t know anything about, i.e. anything to do with economics.