Galaxy: 64-36 to federal Coalition in Queensland

GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Courier-Mail will carry a poll of 800 Queensland respondents (producing a margin of error of 3.5%) which puts the Coalition’s lead in the state at 64-36. This is less bad for Labor than the spectacular 68-32 in the Queensland component of last week’s Nielsen result, but quite a bit worse than the 58-42 in the January-March geographic breakdown from Newspoll (which was mostly conducted before Labor’s post-leadership challenge downturn). Galaxy has Labor at 23% of the primary vote, the Coalition at 56% and the Greens at 11%, compared with 18%, 56% and 11% in Nielsen. The poll has support for the carbon tax at 25% and opposition at 72%, respectively down four and up five since November.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,819 comments on “Galaxy: 64-36 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Is the FWA Report now tainted & toxic with the revelation of Abbott/Jackson/Lawler triangle. Abbott must come clean about this relationship

  2. Hockey is up, whinging about the raising of the debt limit, hockeynomics at its best. Luckily he ran out of time before he made a complete fool of himself, again.

  3. [Tom Hawkins
    Thomson said that Channel Seven was hovering under his bathroom window as his pregnant wife was taking a shower. He damn near broke down at that point. He specifically named Channel 7.]

    and the ABC have said this

    [Begins crying when recalling instance of a television reporter outside his bathroom window when his pregnant wife was showering]

    and Fairfax say this

    [Mr Thomson named members of the media who he viewed were professional and “responsible” but hit out at reporters who had “hovered beneath the bathroom window while my pregnant wife took a shower”.

    Recounting the story – which took place at his central coast home – Mr Thomson was moved to tears.]

    no mention of it being a crew from 7

  4. bluegen

    [Why? Because Craig Thomson said so?]

    No because decent people do not like abbotts kangaroo court to win government

  5. [guytaur
    Posted Monday, May 21, 2012 at 1:43 pm | Permalink
    bg

    The opposition have lost control of the narrative. That is why]

    Huh,

    The attention is still on whether Craig Thomson misused union money to pay for prostitutes; not on aged care policy or an NDIS.

  6. Richo on #Slynews didnt expose any new show stopper or smokin’ gun from Thomson’s speech. So Thomson must be doing OK then

  7. While I don’t put much stock in an online poll, I think it’s interesting that when you add together “convincing” and “not sure” from that SMH poll it comes in at just slightly above what the ALP’s primary vote has been sitting at for the past few months – ie: people who will believe and vote for Labor no matter what.

  8. Well, it’s been a fairly big day, so it’s was nice of Uncle Joe to provide us with a few minutes of comic relief. Pity we couldn’t hear more Hockeynomics – he was just getting into his stride. Sounded like he was once again trying to include the NBN as a budget measure.

  9. DF

    How naive are you.

    Regardless of the merits of the case CT is facing charges. Anyone facing charges, innocent or guilty sensibly takes legal advice and follows it.

    Keeping your powder dry is an important step in mounting your best defence.

  10. Thommo shoved up the arse of the #MSMhacks (Trial by media) and Tony Abbott (not fit to be the PM) – urhhhh that was delicious #MOAR please

  11. What a crock of cow dung is Sky News and the media. Sky showing Craig Thomson pointing at the Oppn and saying they had unleashed a lynch mob but they cut out the bit of him pointing at the gallery and saying wtte you have aided them.

    Likewise I note that Jessica Wright left the media bit out of her article too.

  12. That the Thomson matter is dragging out is bad news for the govt. most destracting. Libs are laughing their heads over this gift.

    And as for Federal Liberal MP Craig Kelly …. well Labor better hope he doesn’t decide to resign from parliament as a matre for their cause, have a by-election which they will win. Thus forcing Thomson to do the same.

    The sword that cuts both ways cuts deeper into the govt.

  13. [No because decent people do not like abbotts kangaroo court to win government]

    Everyday the focus is on Thomson the Gillard government cant talk about policy.

  14. Actually, DF, recently the results of a long term study which tracked a study group over a number of decades found a correlation between lower IQ and greater rates of conservatism, so you might want to be very quiet on that subject. 👿

  15. [Thommo shoved up the arse of the #MSMhacks (Trial by media) and Tony Abbott (not fit to be the PM) – urhhhh that was delicious #MOAR please]

    If this were the Howard govt these comments would be reversed by the commenter. I also note the above commenter has few principles.

  16. [If he was worried about the media invading his privacy shouldn’t he co-operate with the police??? Doesn’t he want to get to the bottom of it???]

    How old are you DF!.

  17. Essential: ALP 44 (+1) L/NP 56 (-1)

    Primary Vote: ALP 33 (+3) L/NP 46 (-1) Greens 10 (-1)

    20% of respondents think interest rates are higher now than they were in 2007 (fools)

  18. Nemspy

    Guess what? I was quoting research which proved exactly what I said.
    [Your post is offensive and is the sort of rubbish we don’t need on these forums.]

    You can take your superior attitude and stuff it up your jumper.

  19. Great pointing by CT to begin and end.

    Pointing at Abbott at the beginning …..”You have led a lynch mob against me”

    Pointing at Abbott at the end …..”You are not fit to be PM. You are not even fit to be an MP”.

  20. [Labor better hope he doesn’t decide to resign from parliament as a matre for their cause, have a by-election which they will win. Thus forcing Thomson to do the same.]

    Stupid stupid comment.

    Why would he be forced out?

    You make this shit up without even getting your brain into gear.

  21. How much credit do you give the government’s policies for reducing interest rates: 59% of L/NP respondents say none. 22% of L/NP respondents say a little … Hilarious stuff

  22. Puff, you might want to look at who commissioned that study. What the questions were – what they defined as “conservative” – ie, I think most Australian conservatives would identify US Tea Party members as buffoons. What ideological baggage the researchers brought into play and so forth.

    I will totally agree that hardcore conservatives tend to be less intelligent, but that doesn’t mean that holds true for the rank and file of the voter for the “generally more conservative of the two major parties” in Australia.

  23. [No, because the Liberals made an idiot of themselves!.]

    I think you’ll find that you are the minority for that being the dominant observation of today.

  24. Thought that Thomson performed well under pressure and actually felt for him during that speech it must have been very hard for him.

    Not sure how I feel about his argument I don’t know enough about the law but just loved how he fingered Abbott. Glad that he acknowledged some of the press who are reasonable in reporting issues.

    Could someone tell me what the issue is with Craig Kelly.

  25. Fitzgibbon saying that he’s said to his colleagues that when you are under the pump through rumour and innuendo you draw strength from your own knowledge of your innocence.

    Says that Thomson has put sufficient doubt in people’s minds for this to be left to the Courts.

    Gilbert trying to exonerate the Liberals and Oppn by saying that Labor would do the same thing if it was a Lib in trouble. Fitzgibbon says he’s never seen anything like this and would not like Labor to do this. Says don’t forget Thomson has been charged with nothing.

    Sky little bimbo saying FWA has found against him and asking how media has performed. Fitzgibbon says there are ‘journalists and media and then there are some other journos’ without saying you’re all a bunch of …….(whatever you like to think was in his head)

    Gilbert now says ‘opinions are well and truly entrenched. it won’t change people’s minds and will keep on going on for a long time’. Aaaaagggghhh!! That’s speak for, we don’t want this to go away or we won’t know how to report anything.

  26. (e Magic Dragon. Posted Monday, May 21, 2012 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    Actually, DF, recently the results of a long term study which tracked a study group over a number)

    Puff my dear u are price’less 🙂 🙂

  27. The study found a correlation not a cause, of course.

    They used standardized tests, through asking for responses to statements.

  28. [Thomson said that Channel Seven was hovering under his bathroom window as his pregnant wife was taking a shower.]

    ACMA really has to be able to do something about that kind of crap. I don’t know how if can be even close to being legal.

  29. Bluegreen,

    You’re on the money there. PB forums are like an Australian lost world, untouched by the realities of mainstream Australia.

    I don’t think the Liberals care that they “made idiots of themselves” in the eyes of some rusted-on Labor voters.

    I’m very for Thomson if his tale of intrigue that makes the plot of The Bourne Identity seem plausible is somehow true and this is all a setup, but not sorry enough to want to look past what, to me, is glaringly obvious.

    Oh, and I agree with Thomson. Abbott isn’t fit to be PM. It’s a tragic reflection on the state of Australian politics that despite this, he’s slightly more fit than Julia Gillard. Shame that Turnbull couldn’t make an impact.

  30. [If this were the Howard govt these comments would be reversed by the commenter. I also note the above commenter has few principles.]

    If the Painful Pavlovian Doggy talks about principle? This is the same doggy that said Labor did the right thing by electing PM Gillard as the leader.

    Some other bludgers have the exact post which i will not bother to erxtract.

  31. Dio

    The News Crew are lucky they ran fast enough. At minimum breaking criminal law of trespassing unless the bathroom window is on the street. Most houses it is not

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