Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.
UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.
victoria,
In case you missed it from the previous thread, here’s the article about the actually venal Mrs Mirabella(as compared to Slipper & Thomson who have only been convicted in the Court of Public Opinion):
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/09/22/sophie-mirabella-set-for-supreme-court-stoush-over-law-professors-estate/?wpmp_switcher=mobile
Henry/Schanppi
Appreciate the feedback
Is compack crank mod lib
Sure sou nds like her
[Julia Gillard’s tone sounded devastated today. She’s been incredibly resilient over the last two years, but today I think was too much]
Yes and not because of how bad she has handled this drama. The wolves are circling and they are from within her own pack this time. There’s no running, hiding, blaiming Kev or Abbott abbott Abbott, the end is close.
c@tmomma
Thanks for posting the article. I wonder if the matter has since been settled between the parties?
rummel
It seems to be in the eye of the beholder
on the other hand, my say @ 100, wouldn’t the ex-seminarian past make the TA-CU combo a perfect fit?
rummel@104,
What ya on pal,hell Im only on port.
fiona reynolds
Imagine if Ulhlmann got the job advising Abbott, whilst his wife is a Labor MP?
Joe6pack, from the previous thread asked whether or not myself or my rellies are worse off for Tony, I believe.
Well, for starters, Joe 6p, I don’t believe it is just about me and my rellies. I think our society is about all of us .
Is that so difficult to grasp?
If you or your family are in difficulty, we help you. If me or my family are in difficulty, you help me.
Fiona the imagination runs riot 🙂 🙂
At least we would not may be have to change channels, or may we would
@94 – I didn’t think the PM sounded devastated this morning. She was definitely up and about and giving as good as she got. Won’t make any difference – while not impossible I see it as significantly leess than 50% chance of the ALP winning the next election.
Julia Gillard still best bet to remain Leader to next election but $4.25 to win.
It’s one of the things that I find so intriguing about Uhlmann, Victoria.
Thank gaia that I don’t have TV, my say.
@Compact/112
Betting in politics is bad mmmmmmmmmkay
Watching both the UK and Canadian QT on apac this evening, has reminded me that our govt is dealing with the same adverserial crap as these parliaments. Maybe we are taking ourselves too seriously!
Victoria.
I would like gillard to continue until the next election. However she will be replaced because there is not a chance in hell the NSW boys will not pull a final trick to try and save them self. Just think of NSW Labor doing nothing for the next 16 months, unbelievable.
cc think I will take those odds,not as good as the 6% in term deposits,do they pay intrest on my bet this far out.
Does the U.K. investigation of Mr. Murdoch do in the existing political regime or the other way around?
[Yes and not because of how bad she has handled this drama. The wolves are circling and they are from within her own pack this time. There’s no running, hiding, blaiming Kev or Abbott abbott Abbott, the end is close.]
She hasn’t handled this badly at all, it will be one of those cases if / when she goes that we are losers, and we don’t appreciate just what a useless s*&t Abbott is, and how good we had it till it is gone.
Some times the collective is unexpectedly smart, sometimes it is dumb as all s(8T.
We are clearly in a latter phase.
rummel
I am not thinking too far ahead. If the govt can survive the budget session and Get through July, I will be more confident about its future
110 harry
Yes i beleive we are worse off, terrified nerves are shredded dreams for our children lost fear
Of unknown
I want spend super, as frightened he will cut penions, so the retaliers are esrning less
So joe 6 pac has less to transport, fear of abbott and his non policies as we only know what he will cut and thats scary, of course we are worse of mentally
[Imagine if Ulhlmann got the job advising Abbott, whilst his wife is a Labor MP?]
Why would Abbott give him a job when the things he does without pay are priceless.
Very sad he is as good as they get, once journalism wasn’t the very lowest possible career.
I do expect the polls to be a bit sad for a while. I will just have to cheer myself up by watching reruns of Mr Jay questioning the murdochs. 🙂
Night, all. Work tomorrow.
Yes, Harry, time for bed here too,
HSO
Night to you. Have a good working week
good night harry
and bk, night from soph. swalk
Puff
Grrrrr!!!
I, Sophia, wish all at PB goodnight.
SWALK
xxxxx
If the dark side got in i think we would all be ill
Some from depression some from losing their jobs, woman expected to stsy home in a 1950s enviroment
others with no confidence
Big busi ess pleasing its selg work serfs, less pensions, the only ones to profit woukd be local gp
But the gap woukd widen in payments, so all that woukd left woukd a cuppa
Are u reading this rummel
You too, fiona!
Calling it a night bludgers. Strength to all and to our PM and govt.
130
Dont crack me up, good to have a laugh again on pb , weeks back the head honcho tried a new way
Bk o bk 🙂 🙂
@114 – why is betting in politics bad?
If you accept the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) from economic theory for pricing markets, then a betting market is a very good proxy for either medium or strong form EMH as a predictor of future outcomes.
This is a blog about Polling – even if you believe there is something morally wrong with betting on politics, the betting market provides valuable market information for analysis.
In this case the ALP are going to get buried, at the moment.
Predictable polls at the moment. What else would anyone expect?
Good night, puff , bk harry fiona, any one else still left late night for me to tired to get out of te chair
May I also just make this comment re the PM’s moves today wrt sidelining Slipper & Thomson?
Those that commented earlier that she seems to be playing Chess, while Abbott plays tiddleywinks, are on the right track. A scenario has played itself across my mind that the PM believes, or knows already, that both men will ultimately be found innocent and so has made the strategic move to sacrifice them as pawns now to eventually Checkmate Tony Abbott. That is, even though they will eventually be coming back to take their rightful places in parliament, she has done the right thing by parliament, as she said today, and asked them to stand aside from their positions, Thomson with the ALP & Slipper as Speaker, so as not to bring parliament low, so to speak.
Now, with them in a holding pattern, no one can say that she has done the wrong thing. And this is where the trap has been laid for Tony Abbott. Because he has MPs on his side of the Chamber, both House and Senate, who are facing both Criminal and Civil charges, himself included, but whom he has not applied the same standards to that he has applied to the Labor Party and Peter Slipper. Then, when that happens, but only then, and who knows how long that will be, he will be seen to be obviously having one standard for himself and his party members of parliament, and another for everyone else. A truly grubby political operator.
The epitome of the Hollow Man.
All I hope is that the media give the electorate the tools to see through him.
Garry spot on i expected worse, have u been away
@117 – a 325% return on you money if they win will beat the pants of the 6% for term deposit – but the outcome is far less certain.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/
Marijuana White House Dinner
(The epitome of the Hollow Man.
All I hope is that the media give the electorate the tools to see through him.)
If not in the lo g run i trust them to see
Great piece as usual
If any business men/women in here ,well can tell you why myself and some members of family are not spending.
About 12 months ago abbotts sleaze was obvioully getting through to gullible people and the situation was there could be an election anytime,with his shrill bleat for an election just might happen,but seems The PM has outsmarted him all the way.
Also with a media openly pushing regime change ,and the results in nsw and qld and abbotts continuing call the sky is going to fall,made us cautious enough to put all our money in term deposits at 6% ,if the government stays in full term ,then with lowered intrest rate ,when the deposits are redeemed and reinvested will probably only get 4%,but think that is ok until see if people elect abbott.
If people elect abbott will still not spend as intrest rates will go up under abbott and will get a much better term rate.
So one could wish for an abbott win,but my point is while abbott is anywhere on the scene we will not spend,except of course for necessaries.
Severely depressing week, political-wise.
The vultures aren’t just circling. They’re going in for the kill.
Let’s just hope they handle it like a Government and get the legislation through.
Call me what you want, but I’m basically resigned to the fact that we’ll lose Government, and of utmost importance now is carbon pricing, mining tax, plain packaging and disability scheme implementation.
glory
Read catmomma’s contribution. I think she outlines how your fortitude may be rewarded.
I’ve heard it all before.
The machine will not let this one go.
Abbott has been told – don’t do anything outlandishly moronic in public, and you’ll be the PM.
No doubt about it.
The European Muting agains onservative policies
spreads everywhere
______________________________________________
A Counterpunch writer looks at the way resistance to austerity programs is bringing doiwn right-wing coalitions all across Europe
In Holland/Slovakia and in France where Sarkozi seems doomed…and in Greece where the two major parties are facing disaster in a few weeks as resistance parties mushroom in support
Germany will soon be isolated and the ony one to purcue the Banlers line
,http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/04/27/as-the-mutiny-spreads-its-clear-europeans-have-had-enough/ly one to favour hard policies for the Bankers
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/04/27/as-the-mutiny-spreads-its-clear-europeans-have-had-enough/
glory
Monday machine takes hit here. Machine takes another Tuesday UK time.
By end of year machine strategy in dissarray.
I post this with no comment.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2095549/Right-wingers-intelligent-left-wingers-says-controversial-study–conservative-politics-lead-people-racist.html
Debionay
Its good to see.