Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.

UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,189 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  6. from our friend Rod

    [Rod Hagen Wow! what a staggering job interview for Abbott’s vacant adviser position, that was from an ABC political journo!]

  8. from previous thread

    [ or

    You can, as I do, look at it this way.

    It’s cold wet and miserable. The external world dark and foreboding. What is going to comfort you? Probably are warm, rich welcoming casserole with a depth of flavour that enhances not only the senses but the soul. Sounds good. The pertinent conversation, however, is how did the casserole come about? Pretty much this way.

    Someone made a stock.

    They roasted bones and aromatic vegetables and took great care not to burn or dry them out, even though they were only bones. They then transferred the mix into a big pot, deglazing the roasting tray to get the maximum amount of flavour, added water, a herb mix and let it simmer for 5/6 hours. When the impurities rose to the top they were skimmed and discarded. After all of this the stock was strained, tasted and adjudged as perfect. Then…..

    Someone made a casserole.

    They tossed the meat in flour and seasoning, then browned it. They also sweated off carrots, onions and celery. Tomato paste along with red wine was used to deglaze the pan and all the ingredients were put into an oven proof dish, with herbs, garlic and then covered with the above mentioned stock and seasoned to taste….not too much, just enough. The dish was covered and put into the oven at the optimum temperature for slow cooking a casserole.

    This is where we are;

    The casserole, the product of such a diverse effort from a range of disciplines, is cooking. The depths of its flavour are developing, the meat tenderising and the integrity of the dish strengthening. The casserole is now becoming of and for itself.

    There is 18 months to an election. The casserole’s just gone into the oven. Don’t be browbeaten by those who live on McDonalds or KFC. The healthy life and soul sustaining sustenance will be along when it’s ready.

    Do what you wish…me? I’m preparing creamy garlic mash, fresh corn, steamed green beans and toasted ciabatta. ]

  10. More from Rod

    [And the ABC Abbott news spin runs on & on, under Uhlmann’s direction. Do they all want the Abbott job? Could get nasty!]

    [My bet is that Simkin’ll get the Abbott job. He writes better slogans than Uhlmann, & isn’t as tainted by a religious right past.]

  11. I know William doesn’t like us to reflect on the professionalism and integrity of the “major” polling companies but some of the question wordings used by Galaxy do seem to be quite strange and one wonders in what order the various questions are asked (in reality – not in the published schedule).

    I’ve always thought of Galaxy as the more “deniable” of the two News Limited polls – it’s as though they can say – oh, but look at our “own” poll, Newspoll – that’s the “high integrity” one.

    Now, did I skate around that one OK?

  14. I’m picking on BK because he lives in a beautiful part of the world with a tight-knit and meaningful community.

    And I live in Sydney…

  17. Thought the morgan poll was always the better as gary morgan had a reputation to uphold,not sure on any of them,will not judge Qld as it was all murdoch propaganda ,and Those from Qld have always been different.

  19. Mr Slipper has been quiet today on twitter

    [Bob Carr. How are you managing? @PeterSlipperMP
    29 Apr]

    [Peter SlipperMP @BobCarrFM well thank you]

  21. @67 Bob Ellis is as incisive as my left buttock.

    If you think that taking your touchstone view points from the likes of Ellis then you also need to prepare yourself for a very long time in Opposition.

    To quote Paul Keating – the Galaxy Poll today – what a beautiful set of numbers. I look forward, as those above also do, the next set of Newspol numbers – nail ny nail.

    Anyone still believe Abbott’s position as LOTO is in any way threatened?

  23. CC

    What in dog’s name are you on about. His comments on Murdoch are spot on. Frankly dont give a stuff about your left buttock

  27. I was asked on the other thread why I thought this Galaxy did the company
    little credit. The reason is the pejorative terms in two of the questions. Verges on push polling for me though I am sure it falls short of the professional definition.

  29. [In 7 years trust in newspaper journalists has fallen from 63% to 12% (RoyMorgan) You guys must be so proud of yourselves. Lower than pollies]

  32. [Frankly dont give a stuff about your left buttock]

    Oh please, after the BK / Puff Adder comments, can we please not go there! I’m trying to keep dinner down.

    Oh, and the nutter-truckers are getting all worked up over the Thomson / Slipper thing.

    Somewhat hilarious.

  34. [roaldan1000

    I was asked on the other thread why I thought this Galaxy did the company
    little credit.]

    He who pays the piper . . . .

    [Schnappi

    Thought the morgan poll was always the better as gary morgan had a reputation to uphold]

    Yes, a reputation of sorts, but not an enviable one.

  36. BK

    You must be looking forward to qanda tomorrow night. Ms Mirabella and Mr Reith will be two of the panellists. Apparently this qanda will be in the southeast of Melbourne

  40. I am now watching Canadian parliament. The opposition are accusing the govt of voter fraud and wasting tax payer funds on 5 star hotels and $16 cost for glass of orange juice, and $1,000 limo rides. Gee makes our parly sound frivolous!!!

  44. do bludgers agree with this assessment?

    [Julia Gillard’s tone sounded devastated today. She’s been incredibly resilient over the last two years, but today I think was too much]

  45. A great final episode of “Waking the Dead” tonight. But next week, surprise surprise, is another rerun of the insipid “Midsummer Murders”.

  47. I didnt think she sounded devastated Victoria at all.
    Tired perhaps after coming back from overseas on sat morning but that’s about it.
    She just has to keep battling on.

  50. (Abbott job? Could get nasty!

    My bet is that Simkin’ll get the Abbott job. He writes better slogans than Uhlmann, & isn’t as tainted by a religious right past.)

    So is abbott hiring. Hope they both get the job

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