Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.

UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,189 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. you cant help but to lol @ the biased of these opinion polls questions

    the thing what the pro coalition media doesnt like to see is 56-44
    they would be hoping 60 or 62% 2pp in favor of the coaliton

  2. So is the next year of public debate going to be around the need for a ‘recall trigger’ to dissolve parliament like there was in the lead-up to the 2011 NSW election?

  3. someone should twitter murdoch that he has unleased wilkie and the pokies clubs are not amused,too dangerous for you to come here.

  4. [Come now.

    Any pollster who thought that this blog was a representative sample of broader society should be out on their ear immediately]

    Don,

    Come now.

    Boinzo didn’t say “a representative sample of broader society”. Boinzo said “a small subsection of broader society”.

  5. why would polls have questions like clinging onto power, or no confidence

    gives the news ltd agenda away doesnt it , how desperate they are for an election

  6. BK – previous thread

    [Uhlmann is sickening on ABC News.]

    Hard to say that I have seen anything quite so ostentatiously superfluous as Uhlmann on ABC TV tonight – like what was his value add?

    At least I now know why he and Abbott seem to be a perfect match ; they are both β€œlook at moi! look at moi!” prima donnas

  7. [Schnappi
    Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 9:03 pm | Permalink

    someone should twitter murdoch that he has unleased wilkie and the pokies clubs are not amused,too dangerous for you to come here.]

    I like it
    Very much

    πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

  8. The recall trigger was the subject of some detailed research in NSW such research having been commissioned by O’Farrell but presumably without any intent to ever doing anything about it.

  9. Don. I certainly didn’t intend to imply PB is a representative sample. I guess I was hoping to say that i think the views on PB are as representative of the outcome in 2013 as any poll made recently. Ie. not at all. It’s a ham fisted way of saying we have no idea what the election result will be. But hey. I’m new here…

  10. Ah finns one of my daughters is rowi g a big ship up the derwent next week fund raising for cancer council. If u imagine an old slave boat. They are sponsered

  11. {Boinzo Posted Sunday, April 29, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    Don. I certainly didn’t intend to imply PB is a representative sample. I guess I was hoping to say that i think the views on PB are as representative of the outcome in 2013 as any poll made recently. Ie. not at all. It’s a ham fisted way of saying we have no idea what the election result will be. But hey. I’m new here…}

    And very welcome to

  12. [I guess I was hoping to say that i think the views on PB are as representative of the outcome in 2013 as any poll made recently.]

    Sorry Boinzo – I can’t help you there.

  13. (on. I certainly didn’t intend to imply PB is a representative sample. I guess I was hoping to say that i think the views on PB are as representative of the outcome in 2013 as any poll made recently. Ie. not at all. It’s a)

    Well i beleive we could be

  14. my say @9,

    The polls are not good, I am first to admit that. i also do not think they will improve for a fair while yet.

    However, as others have already commented, to have a primary vote of 30% after the last week is amazing as far as I am concerned.

    The figures are in line with the last two Newspolls so perhaps the latest “crisis” has not had as much a effect as the MSM would like. We have to remember the last Galaxy was two months ago so the change is more pronounced than comparison to a poll two weeks ago.

    The next Newspoll obviously will give us a clearer view of the effect of the last week than this Galaxy.

    Polls not good but nowhere we haven’t been before.

  15. citizen@23,

    One reason hardly cllick on smh or the age,almost as bad as murdoch,and grattan coorey, hartcher ,reminds me of murdoch media I gave away years ago.

  16. [Having heard Adam Goodes interviewed after the game today, I would like to see him go into politics]

    Don’t wish that on him Shellbell. Mickey O’L is doing great stuff at the Institute with young people and Adam would be more valuable in that capacity, either sport or community affairs, than being a pollie and hamstrung.

  17. e next Newspoll obviously will give us a clearer view of the effect of the last week than this
    πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  18. (However, as others have already commented, to have a primary vote of 30% after the last week is amazing as far as I am concerned.)

    Doyley thats what i thought.

  19. [Mind you we are a cool subset drake.]

    We are cool, but not as cool as Obama. He’s the coolest.

    And Boinzo’s very welcome here, isn’t he Bludgers?

  20. Boinzo @ 3306 prev thread

    Bemused
    It is no good being part of a herd that has got it wrong.

    I agree. But who decides when the herd is wrong? Murdoch? Newspoll? Galaxy? Or do we go with the democratic decision of the caucus? I’m not yet ready to say the labor β€œherd” has it wrong. It’s clear you have made that call.
    I fully respect your right to that view and to try to change my (and others’) minds. But I also feel like there is a higher responsibility on alp supporters to use the next few months to try to turn this around.
    But I’m naturally a glass half full kind of guy…

    I am by nature optimistic too and I have a large dose of a wish to ‘make things happen’ rather than sit back and hope something will happen.

    But optimism needs to be tempered by realism and the reality is that the only ‘objective’ measures are the polls and they do indicate a grim reality that I would like to see changed.

  21. pf @ 3304 – hmmm, several possibilities there, but is it – could it possibly be – the inimitable PF?

    @ drake re Sophie – for one horrid moment I thought you had outed me.

  22. j6p (from previous thread)
    [can i ask this harry? Murdoch is 82 I think and has been in control of news ltd papers in aus forever and we have grown up in that time.
    Are you worse off because of it? is any one?]
    Without trying to be exhaustive, one thing I remember was the “Tax Revolt” campaign of the Australian – not sure if it was in the 70s or 80s without looking it up. It was just a naked attempt to develop an opposition to taxation just because it is taxation – totally disconnected from the things which taxation is designed to fund. I actually think it sank into the national psyche to some extent (especially in the more “educated classes”) and fed into Howard’s much later succession of tax cuts after tax cuts in defiance of fiscal reality. This has impoverished our national consciousness of what government is there for and limits the flexibility of government to respond to emerging problems – witness any number of current issues.

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