Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.

UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,189 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [Mod Lib

    Must be scary for Labor…. they just lost another layer of rusted on voters.]

    Surely, now, there must be the inkling of realisation that the ALP is going nowhere with this leader?

    Can all the lib dreams actually come true and the “geniuses” in the ALP just think the best thing to do is steam on ahead? I am just amazed at the stupidity….you don’t normally see this level of repeated incompetence from a major party go unchallenged.

  2. guytaur – you’re seriously suggesting a QandA television audience’s clapping volume on one question holds weight over a national polling trend?

  3. confessions @ 2132

    Defensive? Nasty?

    What’s either defensive or nasty about what i’ve written?

    Quite a bit actually. But sensitivity isn’t your strong point.

  4. That is it, that’s all there is?
    So much gloom and doom, huff and stuff, toil and trouble for just -3 +3?
    😆 😆 😆

  5. [Can all the lib dreams actually come true and the “geniuses” in the ALP just think the best thing to do is steam on ahead? I am just amazed at the stupidity….you don’t normally see this level of repeated incompetence from a major party go unchallenged]

    So what are the powerbrokers to do. Keep on protecting their power with a Gillard blocker, or face the dunny brush of Rudd. Stupid thing is the worse they let it become the more they need somebody to save the day, the more they have to acquiesce.

  6. [Can all the lib dreams actually come true and the “geniuses” in the ALP just think the best thing to do is steam on ahead? I am just amazed at the stupidity….you don’t normally see this level of repeated incompetence from a major party go unchallenged.]

    Pray tell, why do you care? Coalition hegemony is cool for you isn’t it? Just sit back and relax.

  7. [Can all the lib dreams actually come true and the “geniuses” in the ALP just think the best thing to do is steam on ahead? I am just amazed at the stupidity….you don’t normally see this level of repeated incompetence from a major party go unchallenged.]

    Crean. Genius. Burke. Genius. Shorten. Genius. Arbib. Genius. Anyone who wanted to rebury Rudd. Genius.

  8. [sp rocket ‏ @sprocket___

    #newspoll Preferred PM: Abbott 23%, Clive Palmer 12%, Gillard 1%, Rupert Murdoch 64%. (nb Murdoch staff + family has special voting rights)

    12m sp rocket sp rocket ‏ @sprocket___

    MurdochPoll (aka #newspoll ) could not pull off the 92% anti ALP number which the tabloids did today on Murdoch’s orders #newscorpse

    16m sp rocket sp rocket ‏ @sprocket___

    @campricenews @SkyNewsAust MurdochPoll new name for #newspoll Furthers #newscorpse official bribing, widow hacking, politician blackmailing]

  9. [I apply same standard. I have a high regard for some female politicians…but I don’t focus on their sex,]

    Crap bemused. This is what you said:

    [I watched her on TV and she was just trying to appear hairy chested. Not a good look for a female PM!]

    Instead of weazling away from what you said like some LNP spam bot, just own your own comments.

    All you’ve done tonight is reveal your apparent hatred for women in positions of powner and authority with your thug comments.

  10. Meaningful media regulation, etc 😆

    Despite widespread community support, Container Deposit Legislation (CDL) can not even get up in some states and nationally because both major parties have thwarted such attempts.

    Apparently green jobs, providing income stream for local community groups, reducing rubbish going to landfill and reducing pollution in the environment are not good enough reasons to implement CDL schemes.

    ——————————————————
    Victoria commented the other day:
    [Just saw this from the previous thread. Why should it be a federal matter. South Australia introduced it yonks ago and our youngest kid (now 43) used to collect drink bottles at the footy to supplement his pocket money.

    I think Victoria has the same system. Why can’t the other States introduce it themselves. I can’t see why it should be a federal matter.]
    ————————————————————-
    South Australia has had a CDL scheme for around 30 years.

    The Northern Territory government in January 2012 launched its own bottle refund scheme, in part because it had given up waiting for Canberra to act. It succeeded despite Coca-Cola Amatil threatening possible legal action. Now the CLP is saying that the legislation will be rescinded when they get into power.

    The Greens in Victoria, ACT and New South Wales have introduced CDL, as has Greens senator, Scott Ludlam, to no avail.

    A national container deposit scheme has been under consideration by a federal grouping, the Environment and Heritage Protection Council, since July 2010. This council will not decide until late 2012 if it is a good idea.

    Then there is always vested interests….The Australian Food and Grocery Council always come out when such moves are mooted and lobbies government.

    Kate Carnell, the food industry lobbyist has the experience and connections to pull strings in Canberra: http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/lobbyists/kate-carnell

    1. Clean Up Australia, Media Release, 4 November 2010:
    http://www.cleanup.org.au/au/Media/another-opportunity-goes-to-waste–governments-delay-on-container-deposit-legislation.html
    [Federal and State Ministers have again failed to deliver on container deposit legislation – meaning that more waste will flow into our landfills and choke our environment.

    The announcement came today as part of a meeting of the Environment Protection and Heritage Council (EHPC).]
    2. Container Deposit Schemes / Queensland Parliamentary Library, January 2010.
    http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/documents/explore/ResearchPublications/ResearchBriefs/2010/eRBR201001.PDF
    This e-Research Brief was first published in October 2008 and updated as at 7 December 2009.
    [Most Australian states and territories, other than South Australia where CDL is already entrenched, appear to be waiting for the Commonwealth Government to institute a national container deposit system before taking action locally. The EPHC is in charge of this process at the national level. The agenda for the next meeting of the EPHC, to be held in June 2010, is to consider community attitudes to CDL, and then, if appropriate, to commission a report into the available options. Given these outstanding action items, it is unlikely that significant steps towards actually implementing a national container deposit system will be taken within the immediate short-term.]
    3. 15 September 2011: http://scott-ludlam.greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/every-day-delay-container-deposits-means-another-mountain-waste
    [“Almost one year ago the Environment Protection and Heritage Council – the body previously responsible for this issue – said we should expect a consultation Regulatory Impact Statement (RIS) on how to deal with packaging waste by the end of 2011. We’ve had two Senate inquiries, countless reports supporting container deposits, then yet another year of analysis.]

    4. 1 March 2012: http://greensmps.org.au/content/speeches/speech-container-deposit-legislation
    [So what happened with our legislation? It was voted down on a combined vote of Labor and the coalition. The New South Wales Labor government remained complacent and were willing to rely on the packaging business to continue its failed self-regulation scheme. They opposed the bill and their argument for not voting with the Greens to support what was a very sensible bill—that economics were all there to show the benefits—was that it was up to federal Labor to move so that we had nationally consistent legislation.]

    5. 29 February 2012: http://vicmps.greens.org.au/content/10c-refund-inquiry-report-encouraging
    [Greens MLC Colleen Hartland says she will continue to pursue a 10c refund system for drink bottles, cans and cartons in Victoria, following today’s report of the Victorian Parliament Inquiry into her private member’s bill. The report prefers a national scheme and is neutral on whether her private member’s bill should be passed.

    “Victoria has traditionally blocked a national system, and that’s why we don’t have one.”]

    6. 24 June 2009: http://vicmps.greens.org.au/content/win-greens-government-has-hissy-fit
    [In an historic win, the Greens private member’s bill for a 10c deposit on drink bottles, cans and cartons in Victoria has passed in the State Upper House.

    The (Labor) government quickly moved to block debate in the lower house.]

    7. Private member’s Bill, Greens Senator Scott Ludlam currently before the Senate was introduced and read a first time on 30 September 2010.

    Bill Home Page: http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query%3DId%3A%22legislation%2Fbillhome%2Fs775%22;rec=0

  11. Sorry, but that’s the final straw for me. Get the key changes through (love the idea of bringing the carbon permit auction forward to Abbott proof the price on carbon) and bring back Kevin around August.

    Whatever damage his micro management did in 2010 is nothing compared to this kind of pain in the polls. This is an excellent government on policy and doesn’t deserve to be in this position. I’m a big fan of Julia Gillard, I think she’s done an incredible job in the most difficult circumstances but this is simply too much. Don’t want to say that, but it’s simply the highly unplesant reality of the situation.

    FYi, part of this has to do with the fact that Abbott hasn’t been put in his box and left alone. It doesn’t work and the polls are evidence of that. Rudd understands the values game better than anyone and having some DLP history in his family, he knows all the trigger points to hit Abbott where it hurts

  12. bemused,

    I can’t imagine too many people here being bothered by these figures.

    Kevin Rudd must have had a string of them because they thought he couldn’t get them over the line in the 2010 election.

    Julia has got 16 or 17 months yet to turn this around, hasn’t she.

    I wonder if Labor can get a lend of Palmer’s Titanic 11 to sail in towards a glorious election victory late next year! 😉

  13. bemused@2098,

    Humour a 75 year old,who has seen most come and go

    Saw that coming. Barrister Peter Slipper to take defamation action against T Abbott @Skynews #auspol

    bemused@2098,

    ”Humour me as a 75 year old who has seen many come and go;

    With heaps of bias… I think you set the bar very low…

    Is saying abbott not as smart as slipper biased,seems to me slipper has outsmarted a dumb abbott and even dumber liberal party for twenty years,or maybe all liberals for the last twenty are dumb crooks instead of smart crooks.

  14. [Kevin Rudd must have had a string of them because they thought he couldn’t get them over the line in the 2010 election.]

    The newspoll before Rudd was axed was 52:48 ALP ahead.

  15. The polls have taken a dive for Labor. Surprise, surprise, surprise. At least I can see the reason for these polls unlike some in the not so distant past.

  16. confessions @ 2163

    Crap bemused. This is what you said:

    I watched her on TV and she was just trying to appear hairy chested. Not a good look for a female PM!

    Yes, not a good look for a male politician either, take for example that strutting rooster Newman.
    But a hairy chest is particularly bad for a woman! 😉

    Instead of weazling away from what you said like some LNP spam bot, just own your own comments.

    I stand by my comments. Sorry to disappoint you.

    All you’ve done tonight is reveal your apparent hatred for women in positions of powner and authority with your thug comments.

    Only in your dreams delusions.

  17. [spur212
    Posted Monday, April 30, 2012 at 11:24 pm | Permalink
    Sorry, but that’s the final straw for me. Get the key changes through (love the idea of bringing the carbon permit auction forward to Abbott proof the price on carbon) and bring back Kevin around August.

    Whatever damage his micro management did in 2010 is nothing compared to this kind of pain in the polls]

    Sounds reasonable.

  18. It’s a pity they burnt Kevin Rudd so bvadly recently trying to prop up the current incumbent.

    He might have come in handy as a fall-back reserve to hold the line somewhat.

    If they get figures like that at the next election, even KR will be looking at a new career.

    Come on down, Clive Palmer……………….sorry, Treasurer of the year, you’ve been replaced.

    Blimey, it will be a laugh a minute in between the tears after the next election at this rate.

  19. The Euro Mutiny spreads
    _____________________
    As govts fall in Holland,Slovakia and Romania…and as right wingers like Sarko are dumped…the whole EU campaign to make ordinary people pay or r the Bankers sins is collapsing
    Hopefully the Greeks next week will deal with both major parties… who surrendered to the Bankers in Berlin …in their elections

  20. Bemused I know what you prefer however I think if Labor is to be competitive at the next election then it has to be someone fresh and the future and it needs to be soon or the country is heading towards an Abbott led government. Labor needs a fresh new leader and the Coalition needs Turnbull and it has to be this year.

    I’m really concerned about the state of play (note genuine concern not the forked words of a Concern Troll). Just being preemptive.

  21. Schnappi @ 2167

    I guess I was not as clear as I could have been.

    What I was getting at was to use Abbott as a basis for any comparison is to set the bar low.

    Keep on posting brother!

  22. bluegreen,

    [ Kevin Rudd must have had a string of them because they thought he couldn’t get them over the line in the 2010 election.

    The newspoll before Rudd was axed was 52:48 ALP ahead. ]

    No! You must be making some sort of a mistake there BG. They sacked KR. he must have been behind at least 60/40 !

  23. Gary @ 2169

    The polls have taken a dive for Labor. Surprise, surprise, surprise. At least I can see the reason for these polls unlike some in the not so distant past.

    I want some of whatever you are imbibing.

  24. davidwh @ 2176

    Bemused I know what you prefer however I think if Labor is to be competitive at the next election then it has to be someone fresh and the future and it needs to be soon or the country is heading towards an Abbott led government. Labor needs a fresh new leader and the Coalition needs Turnbull and it has to be this year.

    Labor needs someone with proven capabilities. Shorten does not impress me. There is also the complication of his mother-in-law.

    I’m really concerned about the state of play (note genuine concern not the forked words of a Concern Troll). Just being preemptive.

    I regard you as honest in your opinions. You just have a few mistaken ideas which I will work on with your mother’s assistance.

  25. Bemused 2i70… re women in leadership positions in Oz
    __________
    Sadly I have long thought that women in this country have a very hard time when they come
    into leadership in poltics
    There is a long line of Labor women Premiers…Lawrence/ Kirner/Kennelly/Bligh..and also Redmond ..the LOTO on SA who lost last time against Rann…when a man might have led the Libs to power…to suggest that women leaders start with a massive defecit in support
    Can a women leader avoid that?
    Who knows…but Gillard is surely getting some of this sexist odium

    I listen to the talkbacks and the comments are such as would never be made about a man
    …and when Germaine Greer stupidly talked of Julia dressing and her bum…what hope it there ??

    Any thoughs?…. and don’t denouce me as a male chauvinist pig … that is no help in the current debate!

  26. spur212,

    [ This is an excellent government on policy and doesn’t deserve to be in this position. I’m a big fan of Julia Gillard, I think she’s done an incredible job in the most difficult circumstances but this is simply too much. Don’t want to say that, but it’s simply the highly unplesant reality of the situation. ]

    The big problem is that she came into the job about 4 or 5 years too early. It’s a tough gig, balancing policy, training Ministers and Parliamentary Secretaries and damping down the enthusiastic ambitions of a string of talented but raw people.

    Rudd’s biggest problem was the wealth of talent at his disposal which, although inexperienced in the high office that they now found themselves, believed that they were pretty special and the fantastic polls for the first 2 years didn’t help.

    They were of course, a major reason for the greens over-reach in 2009 and the Government is in its current position because of that.

    Unfortunately, Ms Green hasn’t learnt a single lesson from that. If this government falls early or in 2013 and badly, then the Greens have got to put their hand up and take quite a deal of responsibility for that.

    They won’t of course, but could ultimately bear the greatest cost if the current trend continues in its death spiral!

  27. A superb piece of writing by James Kunstler
    _____________________________
    Speaking of the sprawling towns around Gary ,Indiana ..on the outskirts of Chicago Kunstler sees a desolate wasteland of abandoned factories and decaying once-industrial towns filled with desperate people lacking jobs and public facilities..in what he said was once was an”american dreamland”
    It a remarkable picture ff the ruin of the US
    He writes a week

    http://kunstler.com/blog/2012/04/elegy-1.htmlly

    column on the economy at al…and is both insightful and provoctative
    a great read

  28. ‘you don’t normally see this level of repeated incompetence from a major party go unchallenged’

    Actually Mod Lib, you see it from the coalition all the time.

  29. Okay. Here I go. May a god have mercy on my soul.

    Kevin Rudd’s return to the leadership will be swift, bloodless, and no one will see it coming.

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