Galaxy has published its first poll of federal voting intention in two months, and now as then the result reflects the overall polling trend: the Coalition’s two-party lead is at 56-44, compared with 54-46 last time, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (up two), 30% for Labor (down four) and 13% for the Greens (up one). Three further questions elicit a general mood of hostility towards the government, only one of which strikes me as being particularly instructive: 52% express support for a no-confidence motion and an early election, against 38% opposed. When Essential Research asked simply about support for a new election in early March, the results were 44% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll was conducted over the past there days from a sample of 1012, with a margin of error of about 3%.
UPDATE: Consolation of a sort for Labor from Essential Research, which at least doesn’t echo Galaxy’s finding of appetite for a new election (support down two since March to 42%, opposition up two to 48%), but their voting intention result has deteriorated yet further. The Coalition now leads 57-43, up from 56-44 last week, although the changes on the primary vote are slight: the Coalition is up one to 50%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 31% and 11%. Other questions find overwhelming support for the government’s aged care reform package (61% against 7% opposed), although 62% concede they know little about them. It was also found that 39% supported agreed with Joe Hockey’s sentiments about Australians receiving too much assistance from the government, with 33% disagreeing.
Windsor on lateline now
[What do you think about the posts about Sophie Mirabella here tonight?]
I actually haven’t read them. I have no interest in qanda, and because I’m so readily accused by commenters like you and bemused of quizzing you about shows when I haven’t watched them (and have no interest in any case, and so therefore have posed no questions), wouldn’t want to risk offending your sensitivities by asking what’s happening on qanda, even though I couldn’t give a stuff.
[Saw that coming. Barrister Peter Slipper to take defamation action against T Abbott @Skynews #auspol ]
Pretty sure I saw this same tweet a couple of days ago. Its a hoax.
TLBD
Can’t find reference to Slipper defamation case on SkyNews.
Looks to be mischievous!
[I think that Sky news tweet is a hoax.]
Not so much a hoax as misheard or misreported. The guy who tweeted it watched the next Sky News bulletin for confirmation but didn’t see it.
Rummel very close
[Cam Price @campricenews #Newspoll Results @SkyNewsAust: Primary: ALP 27% LNP 51% .. 2PP: ALP 41% LNP 59% .. Preferred PM Julia Gillard 36% Tony Abbott 41%]
Why the F is Emma asking Windsor about a HSU document that he hasnt seen and doesnt relate to Thomson’s time in the union.
She is now officially useless. What happened to her??
Is Alberici being fraudulent when she intimates that Craig Thomson is linked with the Tenby report released today.
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
LATEST NEWSPOLL: Primary Vote: Labor down 2% to 27%, Coalition up 3% to 51% #auspol
glory so we kept being told. Yet you agreed with me about that one small businessman.
I said may and could. I just do not believe things are as bad as the MSM keeps telling us. Most are doing a wait and see. The heat and noise are coming from those that are going to scream anyway no matter the reality.
Newspoll 59-41. PPM 41-36 in favour of Abbott.
[Cam Price @campricenews Second worst #Newspoll result in ALP history @SkyNewsAust]
Oh well. Second worst. Not too bad.
back from the lovely time with young son to read 59/41…?? true?? yikes.
[Glad to have been of assistance. I always try to be helpful.]
Your comments tonight about how right it is to apply different standards to men and women political leaders has indeed been helpful in elucidating your motivations.
Let there be no doubt in future that your sole motivation for wanting a leadership change is that you can’t stomach a woman ALP leader.
You really do disgust me.
PV 27%?!?!?!?!?! FMD!
Could have been worse actually!!
Michelle will be frothing at the mouth tomorrow with Fran.
Being a sadist I might listen.
You weren’t far off Rummel!
Get set for primary vote to have 2 in front of it apparently.
[Andrew Crook @andrewjcrook
Question should be — the ALP’s primary vote now has a 2 in front of it. Does this give you pause for thought ]
http://delimiter.com.au/2012/04/30/fttn-a-huge-mistake-says-ex-bt-cto/
Interesting article. I think it was referred to much earlier in this thread but i only just got around to reading it. The opinion / analysis at the end is very well done in terms of explaining the slant and “balance” of the article.
Wonder i MT has read it and wept?
Strange that constantly talking up the Government as doomed will drop poll figures further and justify the cycle.
I think if I was going to have a bet on who will lead Labor to the next election then I would think about Shorten at current odds.
Well, that will assure a post budget bounce.
“The polls don’t matter blah blah blah”
27 Primary is absolutely dismal… gut-wrenching in the lead up to a budget.
Flippin hell.
confessions @ 2102
Don’t worry about offending me.
I am armed with a thick skin and a sense of humour. It works.
worse??? they have a majority purely on PV alone…. this dreadful.
after all the years of puttin up with the Rodent i was hoping for a long period of ALP govt.
[I actually haven’t read them. I have no interest in qanda, and because I’m so readily accused by commenters like you and bemused of quizzing you about shows when I haven’t watched them (and have no interest in any case, and so therefore have posed no questions), wouldn’t want to risk offending your sensitivities by asking what’s happening on qanda, even though I couldn’t give a stuff.]
A touch defensive and nasty Confessions?
R U sure you are happy and content about ALP prospects, you seem increasingly angry and short-tempered with fellow posters.
My question was referring to your views of comments posted here about Sophie.
I am just surprised to not see any comment from you about them, given you have been so critical of the media reporting on Gillard and not using her title, yet you are silent about the comments made about a Liberal MP who is a female.
Just asking…
[You weren’t far off Rummel!]
Mod Lib
Must be scary for Labor…. they just lost another layer of rusted on voters.
Waiting to see other numbers before I’ll mention ‘within margin of error’. Lets not forget the Galaxy, usually favouring the Coalition, came in at 56:44.
[LATEST NEWSPOLL: Primary Vote: Labor down 2% to 27%, Coalition up 3% to 51% ]
Doesn’t that kinda drain the blood from your cheeks?
I expect when we have a one in front of Primary some may then think maybe she should step down.
mithrandir. galaxy was prior to the weekends events… its seems sht happens so quick that polls are out of date very quickly.
Do not be scared by this stupid NewsPoll.
We know the media has worked hard all week to make it bad. We know the polling method is skewed to exclude progressive voters.
The NEWSPOLL looks like it comes from another planet compared to the QandA audience tonight.
An audience that was hungry and engaged in policy issues. As did the twitterati posting.
[A touch defensive and nasty Confessions?]
Defensive? Nasty?
What’s either defensive or nasty about what i’ve written?
[Do not be scared by this stupid NewsPoll.]
Facepalm.
The corner for crying is over there.
Stick a fork in her, she’s done
glory
Newspoll has been outlier before.
[Coalition up 3% to 51% ]
so hows that preference flow from the greens going now?
confessions @ 2114
WRONG! I apply same standard. I have a high regard for some female politicians…but I don’t focus on their sex, they are just damn good.
RUBBISH! I simply want an effective leader who will thrash Abbott and his gang. We don’t happen to have one at present. Too many own goals.
And you disappoint me.
All that shyte from Murdochia and that is all they can drum up for Abbott. Gawd, that man is a dud.
This country is lucky to have the experience of a tony windsor,and what a revelation on lateline,although not the father of the NBN ,someday a grateful country will thank him for its existence.
Blimey. looks like i misheard earlier today.
Tony Windsor “did” call Abbott “”a rabid dog”!.
That’s been one of the funniest interviews I have ever seen on Lateline.
guytaur. its not the poll itself. its the method used by those that seek change. how does one combat it?
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
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#Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 36 (-3) Abbott 41 (0) #auspol
13m GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 27 (-2) L/NP 51 (+3) #auspol
14m GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 41 (-3) L/NP 59 (+3) #auspol
I should also remind people that in the middle of last year, Nielsen had the ALP TPP at 39%. And it went up again.
davidwh @ 2121
Comrade, I hope you are wrong. I am in the anyone but Shorten camp. He will forever bear the taint of June 2010.
bluegreen,
[ Cam Price @campricenews Second worst #Newspoll result in ALP history @SkyNewsAust
Oh well. Second worst. Not too bad. ]
Could easily beat that in a fortnight’s time! 😉
so where is PvO’s good news?
mm
Conroy has started. The PM has started. Also the method is not succeeding like we are being told. Remember we do not know what questions are being asked in these polls.
The QandA clapped the comment by a panelist on supporting the Prime Minister. Not all of them Labor voters. According to this poll that would not happen.
middle man – he was being sarcastic. Has done it before.
i wouldn’t mind Shorten being used up in what is shaping up to be a certain an election loss.